Comments by "Bo McGillacutty" (@Mrbfgray) on "Sandy's 2030 EV Prediction" video.

  1. BEVs will be 80% plus by 2030 IMhO. No fan of saving legacy auto, let them die it's healthy creative destruction.
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  2.  @andrewmeehan6151  Very soon a used Tesla "Model 2", or similar priced competitors, will be the poor man's only choice, exceptions for those who drive very limited miles, for them that 1994 Civic will do for many yrs. Meanwhile the higher end market already set to be dominated by more expensive BEVs. So then it just comes down to production limitations and electric gen/grid capacity. (80% of new vehicles I meant which I assume Sandy was talking about.) Tesla alone will be producing 20M vehicles per yr. by 2028 at current growth rate.
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  3.  @andrewmeehan6151  Your out of touch with Tesla, no insult just a fact. They are the most profitable per unit of any mass auto mfg on Earth and becoming more so every yr. (aprox. 26% margins) Last Q2 report was spectacular as each one bests the previous, it's become expected. F and GM will likely either be dramatically downsized, merged, or extinct by 2030 however. And YOU TOO will switch almost for certain before decade is up unless you have money to burn. I have no desire to give up my beloved 2011 BMW M3 either, but when I get tired of driving??....or more frugal?...yeah it'll be a BEV then.
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  4.  @andrewmeehan6151  That's average across all sales, yes higher end versions are more profitable as you'd expect. Production/deliveries should be some 850k, possibly 1M this yr. and probably 2M next yr (pardon such common knowledge)....tho not every yr over yr will be 100% growth rate of course, but easily 50% plus, foreseeably....leveling off toward 20M presumably. Many things about Elon's enterprises are "too good to be true". Everyone in the space industry globally scoffed at landing rockets vertically and reusing many times, but now they are all scrambling to duplicate it as SpaceX is capturing some 80% of the global launch market next yr...no one can compete at this point, not even close. Some customers are occasionally using older launch systems just to keep them in business.
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  5.  @andrewmeehan6151  They won't need much fixing other than crashes which will trend toward zero with autonomous. That's one of the big advantages over ICE but also why legacy MFGs and the archaic dealership biz models will struggle. I don't need to look up anything, they sell everything they can build. The "Busted growth story." and "The competition is coming." are half decade old standing jokes. Not a bubble for TSLA tho it is for others in the space who haven't even delivered a solitary vehicle. I understand well why you and others think that, just like 60 Minutes back in 2002 speaking with a confident Amazon executive: "Amazon is worth 20% more than Sears !??!" (stated with all due incredulity) It took me near a decade to get my head around Tesla, it's one of the hardest to grasp and that's why it's such a massive opportunity, you might see it by say 2025 and that's fine, it will STILL BE A BUY by then. I'd bet you a friendly $100 that TSLA is double by Aug 2022, no telling on such short time frames naturally, but a 10X in 5 to 10yrs all but in the bag. The CCP is a big risk for the China market but that will be diluted with more and more factories everywhere else. (assuming they don't build several new factories in China, which if not punished by the evil regeme, would make sense) Don't forget the forces against them from fossil fuels to the entire establishment of services, dealers, OEMs, plus most media as Tesla is the only one who doesn't pay the bribe, they don't advertise whereas GM, F and the rest squander some $2B annually to pay off corporate media and convince silly customers to buy their products.
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  6.  @andrewmeehan6151  1M this yr is a stretch, it will require faster than expected production from Texas and/or Berlin plus a fast ramp of new versions of X and Y from Fremont. Without the supply chain issues, particularly chips, 1M would probably be a done deal. Back in 2014 when they were producing about 25/30k per yr Elon was showing off the new S on Wall St. and casually predicted that they'd probably hit 500k by 2020. One smart Street money manager emphatically remarked: "'That's absurd it implies 54% growth rate, NO COMPLEX mfg with market cap of $2B plus has ever done that!'" Absurd perhaps but despite the pandemic they delivered 500k last yr. while all the rest were losing their ass.
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  7.  @andrewmeehan6151  You are looking backwards, things are changing fast. Norway has about the highest adoption level on Earth and it's not warm there half the yr, yes they pay a 30% winter range penalty vs say a 10% for an ICE? Seems OK with them. How often do they go over 250 miles at a stretch anyway? Stop to pee and get a coffee or snack and you'll have another 200 miles in the 'tank'. Very soon a 25 to $30k Tesla will be available and it will be a far better drive than anything in that price range and instead of paying $30 or $40 to fill it up it will be 8 or $12. Combine that with no oil changes, no transmission, minimal servicing of any kind and it will absolutely be the poor man's choice once those hit the used market at half the purchase price. Charge time for better brands is roughly 30/40 min for another 300 miles at a Supercharger, going to 15 minutes a few yrs out. Right now charging at home is a problem for most apartment dwellers but that's an easy fix, just some slow chargers in the parking areas, it will become very standard bc it's cheap small footprint way to expand the potential customer base and much more useful than the swimming pool or gym they probably offer already. Many businesses already offer free charging, chargers will be along curbs, workplace parking, etc. Toyota is dragging it's feet and going to be in a bad place by the time they accept the inevitable, they'll have no competitive software capability nor battery capacity and Chinese, Euro and American brands will be eating their lunch. Toy. has done well with the vastly more complex hybrids but they are horrible to drive if you've experienced a fun car and they will soon be more expensive in everyway. DOOMED. BIG respect for frugality and utilitarian, but I'll be damned if I'd ever own a Prius and suffer it daily...if I can afford a choice. Often overlooked that Teslas are the safest cars ever made which is a priority for many and at least a consideration for any sane person....I expect other OEMs will close the safety gap fairly fast, not so much for electronics, software, motor, battery, overall design efficiency and performance, even mfg efficiency. We take for granted over the air updates for Tesla but who else can even do THAT well by now?
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  8.  @andrewmeehan6151  You should maybe rent a Model Y for a day or just test one for free, guarantee you'll begin to think a little different about them.
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  9.  @andrewmeehan6151  I tend to agree, not the cluttered mess of a Ford but I don't like to have look at the screen, to take eyes off road to adjust AC or stereo and especially a button on the darn glove box. But there's your Apple vs it's predecessors and by now there are no button phones left and I'm fine with that just as most are fine with Teslas arrangement, it's fast and intuitive enough to quickly become natural. Much more to an interior than that tho, like the quality of the seats is crucial. How it handles and drives trumps unnecessary buttons and a big screen is damn useful for navigation and all the rest.
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