Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "'Oumuamua Is at the Heart of an Ongoing Battle Raging Within the Scientific Community... Again" video.

  1.  @JKa244  yes that is a curious measurement. it was hanging out in the neighborhood, and we ran into it
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  2. interesting! bolsters the radiation pressure idea, which requires a very light weight object. alien space junk perhaps
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  3. yup :)
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  4. a metalic fragment would be one of the coolest natural explanations :)
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  5. yes! the anomalous acceleration was less than a millionth of a G! but it was detectable over time as it added up to a significant change in the position vs expected position
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  6. it was tumbling so the brightness changed every so many hours. i forget was it 8 hours rotation? seems like space junk more than a functional sail
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  7. turns out it is 17 m/s change in v over the whole time of observation
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  8. yup they had IR scopes on it. there are some things they couldn't see but water vapor and i think dust would be visible at some low concentration
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  9. i count at least seven telescopes that observed it. it was just too small to get more than a pixel resolution -- but they got extended light curves at various frequencies
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  10. Agree on the tumbling. If alien, the most likely would be a piece of alien junk. Light weight due to high tech material, but just tumbling through space
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  11. yes i see comment that is the total
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  12. who called it that?
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  13. correct. the accel is around a millionth of a G. it is 2.5 x 10-6 m/ss. (Seligman et al 2019)
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  14.  @paulcarter7445  It was not discovered until it had already passed the sun and was on the outgoing path.
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  15. which objects are those?
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  16.  @fplancke3336  i think we should do a slightly different ratio. ratio of [stray space ships and space junk] to [stray rocks that would be light enough to accelerate under the tiny force of radiation pressure + stray rocks that outgas molecules of a type that cannot be seen by the 7 telescopes that observed oumuamua] of course we don't know the number of any of these ships or rocks, since zero have been identified actually make that one space junk observed (human, but it had a similar anomalous acceleration)
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  17. ​ @jwh475ezc  yup very small. correction: it is not from the entire observation period, just from a time when it was near the sun. Selgiman 2019 puts the anomalous acceleration at 2.5 × 10−4 cm s−2 under a millionth of a G?
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  18. a simple common rock does not fit the observations
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  19.  @kajalsingh9554  Einstein was intent on proving Relativity but that did not make him wrong, or unscientific, or even suspect. From what I see Loeb is employing the scientific process, and has not made claims that anything is ET tech. But I do agree it seems he can be abrasive to other scientists! I was a bit disappointed in one of his exchanges with a SETI lady.
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  20. excellent info! very cool. coming in from above...
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  21. correct
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  22. they should try to disprove all hypotheses but i agree alien is not disproven and should be treated equally
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  23. agree. a fragment of alien wallboard is more likely, i don't think avi has seen UFO or he'd be like "yeah this is not a ship because the ships move super fast"
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  24. Avi Loeb is not saying it is aliens. People say he is but listen to him. He says only that it should be a hypothesis to considere, and has not been ruled out.
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  25. there are many unusual things sighted
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  26. the edge of the universe is huge. it is the size of the universe
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  27. that is a gravitational effect so it was taken into account
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  28. yes but it was not detected until after it passed the sun, so we don't know for sure if it did that
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  29. panel fell off a panel barge somewhere between Sirius and Andromeda
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  30. that is not the conclusion, that is a hypothesis (which has not been ruled out yet)
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  31. i think the 3 body problem comes into play after many orbits
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  32. correct :).
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  33. yup, could be something like a panel off an old space station. lightweight and durable but not an actual functioning ship
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  34. slingshot is gravitational effect. the acceleration was measured as a deviation from gravitational trajectory
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  35. you got that middle one wrong
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  36. (the second one)
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  37. yes turns out that was the velocity change during some interval of observation near the sun
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  38. and assuming it is not is also lazy
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  39.  @glashoppah  If it was small and squishy, with radiation, and was seen near Ulan Bator, then yes.
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  40. it was a utility access panel from a star station rest stop off the Tanhauser Gate during the 'troubles' a lot of junk was thrown loose
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  41. correct it has been imaged as one pixel with varying brightness. the most likely statistical fit was a pancake, but it was not significantly more likely than a cigar. idk why the cigar became the thing? probably someone did a nice model and everyone said oooh yeah. and it is cool. but a pancake is cooler.
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  42. idk why it is bad to look where an asteroid hit has he announced analysis of the spherules yet? that would be interesting
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  43. not
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  44. mostly from the sun facing side but also some from other angles too i think it is very complicated depending on shape, material etc. but much of the outgassing is molecules kicked off by the solar radiation directly
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  45. correct, it has to be very thin or very non-dense
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  46. correct, does not account for it
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  47. correct
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  48. it had characteristics of no other known object
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  49. Dragonfly project!
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  50. he does not claim they are alien tech
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  51. gravitational calculations did not explain the trajectory without an additional outward force
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  52. it was moving very fast, much faster than even than a typical comet or asteroid
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  53. yup. size depends on albedo i guess.
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  54. yes very small! roughly a millionth of a G i think 17 m/s was perhaps the total change in v over the duration of the observations
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  55. yeah. that 17 could the the change in speed over the course of observation, not sure.
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  56.  @Dorsidwarf  that is just for outgassing. radiation pressure doesn't do that afaik
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  57.  @paulcarter7445  There is only data from the outgoing. Micheli et al rule out radiation pressure for one reason only: it requires a very low mass for the object. A solar sail has low mass, so this is not ruled out. Radiation pressure on a normal asteroid is ruled out.
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  58.  @paulcarter7445  Interesting point, and worthy of more thought. I will read more but my first reaction is, does tumbling rule out RP? Or is it simply not a result of RP?
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  59. yes that is interesting. but, which whole theory is thrown out?
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  60. did he not say there was anomalous non-gravitational acceleration?
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  61.  @tlrlml  I mean, that's what it's called. the anomaly is that the observed trajectory differs from expected trajectory based on gravity of the main masses in the solar system that would most affect it
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  62.  @tlrlml  the papers are available at google scholar. i'm not saying it's all correct but they obviously include gravity in the calculations
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  63.  @tlrlml  see Micheli et al 2019 in Nature. it is available at google scholar free full paper
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  64. a theory is just a hypothesis in a house
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  65. yes! it was ~ at rest with respect to the local neighborhood of stars. we ran into it.
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  66. The acceleration was directly away from the sun. No gas detected whereas it is detected in all known comets. Occam suggests light pressure -- but not necessarily a 'light sail' as Avi says. Maybe an ultralight foam panel of space junk from an old exploded space station. It was tumbling; a functional ship probably would not tumble like a wobbly football.
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  67.  @twistedplot  I can't see my comment about speeds. What did I say?
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  68. there are. it was a single pixel
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  69. we can't be sure. what was the reported degree of confidence?
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  70. indeed. unlikely does not mean implausible.
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  71. the 'object' at 13.6 bly away is the universe, which is big. point in any direction and it's there.
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  72. size depends on albedo assumption. it was just one pixel in all the telescopes so the size is not directly measured. the total light emitted is measured and compared to solar irradiation at that distance, etc.
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  73. they modeled all the big objects and it didn't quite fit the expected path
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  74. the velocity was higher than solar system escape velocity
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  75. agree. most likely alien scenario: busted piece of ultra-light space junk lost from a recycling barge a million years ago
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  76. about a millionth of a G
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  77. correct, it is not an acceleration, but a speed change accumulated during some early portion of it's observed trajectory
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  78. What type of rock does that?
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  79. correct. that can't be right. for one thing 17 m/s is not an acceleration it is a speed. second, as you say, that's 1.7 G which is huge. the acceleration was probably more like 1/1000th of a G. checking... ok even smaller! 2.5 x 10^-6 m/ss less than a millionth of a G
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  80. moving too fast
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  81.  @paddygora8413  gravity was modeled to get the predicted trajectory. the anomaly is that the observed trajectory did not match
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  82.  @djangofett4879  which paper?
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  83. turns out it is 17 m/s change in velocity over the whole time it was tracked (said a comment)
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  84. alien space junk > light sail tumbling seems like a major clue
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  85. you know exactly what it is, don't say maybe. tell us the % of ice and what type of rock.
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  86. yes, simplest is that analysis is mistaken. so they checked that idea. also many different telescopes observed it and each got their own data.
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  87. the acceleration was measured as a deviation from expected gravitational trajectory including slingshot effects
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  88. they looked for gas and dust and didn't find any. but certain gases would not be visible due to wavelength of the telescopes
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  89.  @strategicsage7694  Correct, it seemed to be non-grav accel. Also the accel was directly away from the sun -- if it was an unknown mass that would be quite a coincidence.
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  90.  @uteriel282  cool! that makes sense. 38mph change in velocity. looked up the acceleration. it was 2.5 x 10-6 m/ss
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  91. there is no known object with it's characteristics
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  92.  @jacksparro3150  We don't know what it is. You say it is a rock but name the rock type. In science there is always choice E) Insufficient Data. We should get more data soon for other extra-solar objects...
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  93. sure we have zero examples of technology in the universe except for computers, rockets, and other technology
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  94. best fit to data is disc but yeah there was never an actual picture of it. it was always oe pixel with varying brightness it was not slingshot maneuver tho
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  95. it can't be a 1000m long rock, that is ruled out
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  96. the research accounted for gravity
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  97. that is gravitational. accel anomaly was deviation from gravitational trajectory
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  98. looks like .'26 is much closer
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  99. nope
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  100. try google scholar. it has all the papers like Yogi Berra, he never said half the things he said
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  101.  @redbloodcell4047  yup, cold small object hard to see
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  102. size and brightness
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  103. the accel was very small, about a millionth of a G if i recall. the direction seemed to be always directly away from the sun.
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  104. it was seen by at least 7 telescopes
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  105.  @norml.hugh-mann  There was one other object detected in space with similar non-gravitational acceleration and lack of cometary outgassing. Guess what it was!
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  106. agree
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  107. it's a panel blown off a space station somewhere near the Tannhauser Gate. A lot of junk went loose during the "troubles" actual alien ships accelerate with ~a million G, this one was ~1/millionth of a G...
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  108. they did
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  109. he did not say what you say he said
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  110. the best fit was a smooth small constant acceleration directly away from the sun
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  111.  @renesoucy3444  yes it is nothing like the ships we see on earth. it could be an old piece of alien junk, light weight but just tumbling through space as trash
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  112.  @uteriel282  Yes that is super cool, there should be millions of extra-solar objects here and passing by every year if we could see them all including the dust. This bodes well for eventually knowing if oumuamua is natural rock or not.
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  113.  @davidstevenson9517  Yup. the meek shall inherit the earth. it is a good idea to help the meek now and they can help us later
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  114. yes and the trajectory did not match a gravitational trajectory
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  115. the universe is larger so it is easier to see :)
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  116. the pen got dropped and was just flying back to its alien
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  117. more like a few micrometers/sec sec. like a light sail would do or a fragment of light weight material
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  118. yes but a spherical object can't tumble afaik the object was apparently tumbling like a wobbly football or wobbly frisbee
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  119.  @jmi967  correct, tumbling was simply the best fit to the light curve data, not a direct observation since no outgassing was observed by any of the 7 telescopes, parsimony suggests that radiation pressure (not gas) could be responsible. radiation pressure is very gentle at the distances, so this hypothesis requires a very low mass object with a large surface area a light sail fits this set of characteristics. also a spongy formation of ice was suggested by one paper. a hollow thin-walled object could also fit the radiation pressure hypothesis. it is all speculation as you say.
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  120. yup. that's media for ya. read the paper on the shape analysis. they said a pancake shape was the best fit to the data, but not significantly better than a cigar shape
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  121. known comets have water. i think telescopes could detect that very efficiently. they saw none.
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