Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Pandemic in UK and Europe" video.

  1.  @davidmckay4273  The latest 7-day moving average is 106 per day.
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  2. from 20% to 95% seem to asymptomatic, depending on the group and study
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  3. He covered Japan recently, Sweden may be upcoming in the "Hey that's great!" series.
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  4.  @matthewsmith2787  We are powerful enough to magically influence the evolution of the virus to be less deadly as a species. That's no small hill of beans. . By magically of course I refer to public health practices, which are doing just that.
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  5. I agree. And I'd be happy to never hear "lockdown" again. We need more than metaphors, and the ones we use should be more appropriate and correct. . Also I dislike "stay at home" -- and "stay inside." Some of us live where you can walk without seeing another person.
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  6.  @caroltopalian593  Aha yes, good example. . Ok let me try again to be more clear. . Restricting travel can make sense between areas with very different infection rates. Such as, between NZ and most other nations.
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  7. I think that is one likely hypothesis. I wouldn't say 'weaker' though, let's encourage it... 'more kind' perhaps... 'gold star virus of the year award' ... if it continues. . Part if it is treatment, part is different groups getting it at different times (vulnerable ones early), and part of it might be virus evolution due to our isolation of bad cases.
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  8.  @davidmckay4273  Ok, that's about the same as the 7 day average. . In any case the death numbers are tiny compared to the case numbers, which is very different from the first wave.
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  9.  @christopherrobinson7541  interesting
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  10. Good. I think travel restrictions are very dangerous. . Indoor bars could be closed though, and any other business that has a demonstrable unavoidable and large risk. . That's my opinion for the US, but I don't live in Germany.
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  11. Yes, deaths and also random sample studies can give some view of the situation, unlike case numbers which are really not very useful.
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  12. I don't see a point in travel restrictions, unless the regions have very different infection rates. . But even so, travel is not the best measure for how intense a "lockdown" is, as viruses don't care about locks, only exposures. .
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  13.  @rossmurray9654  that makes sense, if an area is close to zero and can get all the way that is a huge triumph. .
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  14. There's no point to isolating areas unless they have very different infection rates. . If there's a region with zero, it has an effect. Or a city with almost the cases. Otherwise it's draconian for very little gain.
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  15.  @petero9584  Read my original post: I said it's not logical "unless" areas have very different infection rates. . You are describing a case of very different rates, so logically then yes travel restrictions could have a large effect. . I see people advocating restrictions between US states, but that would not help much, because the states are about equal in their rates. . The point is that travel restrictions per se do nothing, except if the circumstances are right. Closing the gate after the cattle escape...
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  16. Yes, and even the total testing is a useless number. Random testing is the only way to properly estimate population numbers. . This is ancient news in science.
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  17. Japan is doing well. Check out Asia in general. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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  18. @M J Case and testing numbers are not a valid way to estimate virus prevalence. It has to be done with a random sample.
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  19. Yes, but not in hotspots -- in all the cities. Any place could become a hotspot, this could be early warning. .
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  20. Restricting travel should be one of the last resorts. And it usually won't help. It's like locking down air.
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  21.  @caroltopalian593  All situations where the prevalence varied greatly between different states or provinces. So potentially effective. .. Situations where it wouldn't be effective: restricting travel between the US and Canada today.
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  22.  @caroltopalian593  Yes it's closed, but I'm not convinced that it does any good. . Small lesson if you will pardon. Prevalence is number per population. New cases per million in the US are roughly the same as new cases in Canada. (less than a factor of 2 apart). . I don't live near the border... if people want it closed for psychological reasons, fine. I can understand if my fellow American snowflakes do not want to be exposed to such levels of politeness! . As Dorothy said, there's no place like home, unless it's another place with the same prevalence.
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  23.  @caroltopalian593  Ok yes, I should put it in concrete terms. You have a front and a back yard. . There are 14 turtles in front, and 0 in the back? Close the gate quick! . Now say there are 8 turtles in front and 6 in back. Closing the gate is not that helpful.
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  24. I would think it could be a lot quicker, like minutes. idk though.
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  25. Sweden is doing very well keeping daily deaths close to zero! . They had problems early on, which their government even admitted.
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  26. Yes, agree
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  27.  @jeroen3657  I agree. The way to check the case numbers -- since they are not a proper survey -- would be proper random sample studies, and there probably are some in Europe. .
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  28.  @phildoodler2199  Yes I'm pretty sure there was a rabbi named Yeshua who did some things. He's very wise, like the Buddha. The myth is that he wanted to start a new religion. He was a rabbi not a doctor, Jim!
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  29.  @phildoodler2199  Early Star Trek -- Jim is the Captain, and the ship's doctor is always complaining about being mis-cast. . His name is Bones and he says things like "Dammit Jim I'm a doctor, not a physicist!" "not a bricklayer!" "not an escalator!" . As children we naturally idolize our parents and then later other strong and uplifting figures like captains, doctors, rabbis, and escalators. Today we are sad that our biggest leaders are letting us down. But it could be comforting to stop expecting messiahs in office.
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  30. they are a bit different in meaning, though. asymps will not be courageous and so not carriers for much of the time they would test positive in a PCR test.
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  31. If you get the results in early phase, there are good steps to do and to not do. . e.g., monitor your oxygen
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  32. I think that evolution is likely, given that the world has tried to isolate the bad cases. . It is very hard to confirm experimentally, due to the problem in challenge experiments on humans.
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  33.  @marybonner4109  Yes, but as I recall that second wave was the one that had been selected by war conditions to be hyper deadly. When that selection was reversed, by public health measures, it rapidly became far less deadly. . This flu, and a cholera epidemic in India and Ethiopia, are two of the classic studies in disease evolution. Diseases can often evolve to be either less or more deadly, depending on what we do for public health.
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  34. Doesn't matter. The only valid estimates are from random sample studies. The other numbers are just accounting.
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