Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Ivermectin in Japan" video.

  1.  @josemariatrueba4568  Agree. Japan is not in the top 10 for suicide rates (source: world population review). They are probably in the top half, though. City life? High stress economy? idk. Men 2x women.
    4
  2. The fact that most every nation has multiple waves supports your hypothesis that behavior is the #1 factor.
    3
  3.  @robwoolley  Not approved, but it is allowed. To know if it helped, need to know how many orders were made in the month after the announcement that it was allowed.
    3
  4.  @Backtothescience  Exactly. Throw the sink at it -- don't rely on a miracle drug like iver or a miracle vaccine. Health, hygiene too!
    2
  5. You're asking about timing, right? Indeed, if Iver helped flatten the wave, it must have been adopted within a week by tens of thousands of people. Is there any data on it? Otherwise, the curve would suggest iver helped but was not the prime factor.
    2
  6.  @robwoolley  You made the claim, will you provide a source? (no links, they get deleted by yt spam filter)
    2
  7. Yes! Also notice the deaths / cases pattern. The first two waves 100/ 5000. The third, 50/ 25000. (graphs at worldometers) Is Delta less deadly?
    2
  8. Gibraltar has a wave -- but almost no deaths. This suggests that the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission but reduces mortality.
    2
  9. We must consider the null hypothesis, that this wave was similar to the first two in Japan. Looking at the curves at worldometers, this can probably be rejected by comparing the ratio of deaths/ cases for the three waves. The third wave is ~ 10x lower.
    2
  10. Less sick = fewer virions = less transmission (it is logical but idk if it is true for ivm or the vaccines)
    1
  11. The national curve supports that hypothesis. If it is true, one would predict the wave would be centered on Tokyo. Was that the case?
    1
  12. That sounds right. However, it could be a factor in the lower deaths rate in their 3rd wave vs the first two waves.
    1
  13. The deepest answer would be: evolution. Iver is from bacteria. Bacteria need to fight viruses, but not helminths. The anti parasite action is probably a fluke. It is more likely an antiviral for the bacteria itself.
    1
  14.  @professorstaceycamp  I guess I was not clear. I am not talking about humans. I am saying that ivermectin may have evolved in bacteria to protect the bacteria themselves from viruses. That is speculation. However, it follows evolutionary logic. Do you know the American Pronghorn Antelope? Rapid running ability evolved in Pronghorn to avoid predation by the American Cheetah. Similarly, ivermectin may have evolved in bacteria to avoid death from viral attack.
    1
  15. as the Brits say, "Brilliant!"
    1
  16. agree
    1
  17. Unfortunately few countries do the required random sampling. The usual case numbers are barely reliable to an order of magnitude.
    1
  18. The Olympic hypothesis predicts a wave centered on Tokyo. Data is probably available by province. Does it support the hypothesis?
    1
  19. i think he said "interbreeding"
    1
  20.  @sharonleis1365  wow yeah, at that point even a placebo could be a life saver! The very act of helping can help. I was born in India when my folks were in the Peace Corps. I am amazed how well India has done in this.
    1
  21.  @FB-qp8eo  youtube spam filter deletes external links
    1
  22. Interesting! And the vac rate was not high during the wave in Japan (45%). It is high now.
    1
  23.  @kreek22  Indeed! Every nation (almost) and every state in the US. With all those cherries, one can support almost any hypothesis. How about this for a world wide Null Hypothesis: nothing matters much, except contact networks and acquired immunity. The virus spreads by contact cells until the cell is mostly immune. I don't think explains 100% of the patterns, but may be 30 or 50 or 80%...
    1
  24. I think that is a valid point. How did Delta spread if it had that mutation?
    1
  25. That doesn't mean they didn't help. It means they weren't 100% effective for at least the first few weeks of the wave.
    1
  26. Excellent question. Were other strains present in significant numbers? Did they increase from start to end of the wave? If yes and yes, it would support the NSP14 hypothesis. If not, not.
    1
  27. 14% risk reduction in a meta analysis in medical settings 10% risk reduction for wearing eye protection
    1
  28.  @Psalm1828light  It shows masks CAN work. But yeah most people have the worst kind and don't use it right. Put it this way: going to Walmart, I mask up with N95 and hunting balaclava, and safety glasses. Going to the health food store with four people in it, I just wear a balaclava for protocol.
    1
  29. Prevented ~ 60% of cases in one study that John covered some months ago
    1
  30. mutations are often a chanje in information, rather than a decreas.
    1
  31.  @Psalm1828light  If a sequence goes from ATTATAGC to ATTATAGT there is no loss of information. It is exactly 16 bits of information, before and after.
    1
  32.  @Psalm1828light  True, there are different definitions. That is important. What is the definition of information that you are using in this context?
    1
  33.  @davemills8511  In the US it is being linked to Trump and anti-vaxxers. It has become a "wedge issue" that the media uses to divide people. Anti vaxxers are now linked to Trump by the corporate media. Until covid, they were considered hippies, the opposite of Trumpian. None of it makes actual sense, but it is how the media operates.
    1
  34.  @abdunnoor2719  A country can have a wave unless it's measures are 100% effective. Masks probably help but they are not 100%
    1
  35.  @FB-qp8eo  I don't have confidence in either statement without more evidence. It's a miracle, it's nothing... probably somewhere in between...
    1
  36.  @jonathantegnell9935  Ok that makes sense. I reckon if it was used enough to drop entire case curves, residents would know. Thanks for your input! If you don't mind, where are you in Japan? Someday I would love to revisit Kamakura, where I went as a baby. I lived many years in Hawaii and met many wonderful Japanese people, including the famous Kenichi Horie, and studied Aikido in Honolulu and at Harvard. Each nation has great things to offer the world. Peace :)
    1
  37.  @peachion2  The question "why" leads us to level after level. Ultimately, the deepest answer to your question may be evolutionary -- viruses are the main "natural enemy" of bacteria, so many molecules have evolved within bacteria to fend off a virus. The Cas9 protein (which uses the famous CRISPR type sequences) is one example. Ivermectin may be another. Perhaps the more mysterious question is why does ivermectin affect parasites, which generally don't kill soil bacteria.
    1
  38. anything that reduces severity Probably reduces transmission (but it could also be reverse)
    1
  39. allowed but not approved. you're saying among your friends, it is not common? interesting
    1
  40. India has a huge pharma industry. They have high tech and educated, inexpensive workers.
    1
  41. ​ @HybridHumaan  VitD in Japan: "The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency was 81.3 and 1.2 %, respectively" (Yoshimura et al 2013, Osteoporosis International) It was very rare to be deficient, but most were lower than recommended. D levels: fall > winter, men > women, coastal > mountain
    1
  42. yes, unless the mutation in people were near 100% protective a country could still have a wave of cases
    1
  43. Was there spatial correlation as well as temporal?
    1
  44.  @shooster5884  herd immunity would be due to total % infected + total % vaccinated, not the peak cases. Unless Japan did random surveys, they don't know the total...
    1
  45. 6:15 -- US about twice Japan peak wave
    1
  46. That's what they say the vaccine does also
    1
  47.  @chipsnmydip  I also am not convinced iver did the curve in Japan there. However... I read the first dozen reviews that come up on a lit search. Half found benefit, half no significance, none found net harm. I do think it has some effect.
    1
  48.  King Yellowman  I think that's probably true, but on the other hand, Uganda peaked at 20 cases per million... so there may be more than one way to flatten covid...
    1
  49. Yes, that deserves some computer modelling time. Quite interesting
    1
  50. That could be a factor in Hawaii as well
    1