Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Pandemic update, Tuesday 29 September" video.

  1.  @agentdark64  Yes, the are targeting the spike protein, because if that mutates then the virus can lose its ability to infect humans. .
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  2.  @Vierotchka  Yup. People are often bewildered when faced with a fact that doesn't match expectations.
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  3. This is the last thing from fear mongering. People that spend 90% of their air time giving relevant information... wow. If you want fear porn go to Fox or CNN.
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  4. false
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  5. positivity is a meaningless number
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  6.  @garymanders1273  Here is one even more relevant to that exact question: . http://www.jehp.net/article.asp?issn=2277-9531;year=2020;volume=9;issue=1;spage=192;epage=192;aulast=Sharma . Here's the pdf of the study: http://www.jehp.net/temp/JEduHealthPromot91192-6252029_172200.pdf
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  7.  @cameratool  Oh ok! . Yeah, I agree positivity is 100% bullshit number. As you say, if it's not a random sample it's junk. . I can get better estimates by asking a squirrel for a nut and counting the times he says "What?"
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  8.  @BeyondRocketScience  I agree with all that you say there. . I'm just saying that herd immunity starts at 60 to 70%, not 100%. . Herd immunity does not mean that nobody gets it. It means that outbreaks don't grow, but usually shrink, because R < 1.
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  9. or something good
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  10. We have had the former but have we ever had the latter? . Even Obama man, he lied flat out. Oh well. He was still a good president.
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  11. Why did the Russian man go faster? They told him to quit Stalin.
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  12.  Praxis Alba  That is important for the individuals, but not for the question of herd immunity (as long as it is rare). . Herd immunity doesn't mean the virus cannot spread at all. It means that R is less than one, on average, so outbreaks tend to die out rather than grow.
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  13.  Praxis Alba  I agree 100. . There was a Harvard guy on last night with an at-home test using a strip like a pregnancy test. Awaiting approval by the FDA... . 10 minute testing would be a game changer. . I am also campaigning for random sample surveys to estimate the true numbers. Come on world! You can science!
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  14.  @bernardocantu77  If I made a Chevy straight six more efficient by cleaning the air filter, I boosted it. . I agree diet is important. And sunshine!
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  15. Soap kills it on hands or cloth. . Soap with hot water will kill it faster, and is better at removing dirt and oils, where the virus could hide from soap. They would recommend washing your hands in 60 degree water except isn't that too hot to touch? . Wash longer in cold than in hot, and you can get the same effect.
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  16. @L C Yes, that was the point.
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  17.  @MStClair-zk8vv  We should stop feeding the troll. ignore copy pastes
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  18. there's tons of evidence, google scholar search "metaanalysis mask protection" or some such combo
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  19.  @garymanders1273  We can start here... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7253999/
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  20.  @dteunissen  Yes I agree. With no randomized controlled trials in the field, there is a lot of inference. I hope our planet will discover science some day...! . There is however good reason to believe home made cloth masks can be partly effective. . In the words of the review paper, cloth masks are "not ideal... may be effective... for covid-19" . The basic mechanics strongly suggest that you can rig up something that can work FAIRLY WELL to filter aerosols. . Also there are highly controlled and randomized LAB trials of various materials that show very high filtration -- up to 90 or even 99% -- with large of variation from material to material. Thread count counts. Silk is probably very good. There's an N99 that's even better than the N95. Etc. . .
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  21. "No one cares about seasonal flu" . lol that is so far from the truth I'm just going to laugh and leave
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  22.  @smiffy8364  But is it really safe to have zero economy? . Before 2020, everyone agreed poverty was a killer. . Not taking sides, but there is a tradeoff.
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  23.  @CharlesvanDijk-ir6bl  That is wonderful. Yes makes sense to open the economy locally! . Good job you guys.
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  24. What is that number, 5,6,7/100 ? Do you mean 567,100?
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  25. Because they are in their fourth surge. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ . They are doing very well. The numbers are pretty low. But they are in their fourth wave, if you look at the graph.
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  26.  JohanMDK  Sweden doesn't fit the narrative of the right wing or the left wing. . Wings are not smart. The brain is located closer to the middle of the bird.
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  27.  JohanMDK  Anything that works will be claimed by others, but rarely understood. If they understood it they would do it! . The right and the left are terms used to divide and conquer the people. Some of the people fall for it some of the time. Politics has zero to do with virology, so anytime someone talks about politics we know they are not thinking about the science. . Focus, people!
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  28. If there are Covid remnants, and the test picks it up, that is a TRUE positive. .
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  29.  @neildoerdan2298  True, a sensitive test creates its own problems -- precisely because it is so good at the job! . One of your most important points deserves a repeat: PCR positive does not equal infectious. . I just don't want a test called bad because it is too good. The key is interpretation. . It's like the $20 bill / cocaine thing. According to the law, cops could arrest everyone with cash in their pockets. The test isn't to blame, the laws are messed up.
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  30. That's not how herd immunity works. At some number (less than 100) the R becomes less than 1, so instead of outbreaks growing, they tend to shrink.
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  31. PCR has an extremely low false positive rate. . PCR has been around for decades. If the inventor said "not for X" when it was invented... well, we didn't use phones to take pictures back then either.
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  32. They ARE doing a shorter process. .
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  33. But fear is losing $$$. . I agree there is too much fear -- but if it's a conspiracy to make $$$ then I guess the only corporations with power are the pill pushers. . Thus, no more MIC. I guess that's the good news lol.
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  34. The common cold is caused by many different species. . It is not comparable in any way, really.
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  35.  @ATSucks1  Ok... adeno- and corona-. (?). I say old chap, you do clearly know a thing or two about it. So then why compare covid to the cold? . We might as well ask why there are no goldfish on the Miami Dolphins. . You know the reasons not to: (1) The cold is mild so there is little incentive for a vaccine, and (2) the cold is various species -- so there cannot be one vaccine. . Let's find a single disease in the same phylum and compare that? There are coronavirus diseases for chickens and cows... and vaccines for them...
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  36. what is?
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  37.  @barbaralindhjem1582  No way. I mean yes, we are lucky, but no, almost all would not have died. Most people today get it with zero symptoms or mild symptoms and don't get any treatment at all. . In ancient times it would have been worse, but it's not 100 deadly by nature.
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  38.  Captain Reason  Asymptomatic rate is from 10 to 50%, depending on the study. . How is that relevant? . In any case, none of the usual numbers are a valid way to estimate population numbers. Only random sample studies can do proper estimates.
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  39. I agree but disagree. The case numbers are not informative, period. They are misleading with or without test numbers. . There is one way to estimate population numbers: random sample surveys. . Anything else is haphazard trivia, not true estimates. .
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  40. We will discover that machines can already do most of the essential work, and it's time for a UBI and a new phase of humanity where the machines work for us instead of vice-versa.
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  41. A test that shows positive due to actual virus particles is a TRUE positive.
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  42. Is that from randomized testing, or just the total numbers?
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  43. I think it's good that sports are starting up. It shows how testing, quarantine etc. can be successful. . PS There's no rule against travel within the US.
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  44. probably, but not so small that the next person might not get a bad case
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  45.  @ravenravella1000  yes
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  46. The false positive rate is almost surely too small to affect the national numbers. It is important for individuals to realize that if they test positive they might want a second test to confirm, if they had no symptoms. . The false positive rate in an excellent Iceland study was << 0.6%
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  47.  @softcolly8753  Those are two great reasons lmao. I don't like him but I do appreciate those things! . No new wars in 4 years is a modern record for a president.
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