Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "UK Coronavirus Weekend Update" video.

  1. Seems like the virus would go extinct if we could isolate everyone for 6 weeks.
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  2. As of last week I thought the Russian vaccine was approved, but not being given yet. could be wrong
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  3. The only way to estimate numbers is by random sampling. . So, it may be a casedemic or a pandemic or both, but the science is surely suffering from a fatal lack of random.
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  4. very
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  5. I am glad she got to come home
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  6. Yes that's a great idea! If you had it, wait for the vaccine until others have a chance.
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  7. They would do some simple math. . Estimated rate = measured rate - false positive rate . They use the false positive rate from the lab study that was used to proof of the test, not the one you mention. . This rate does not depend on the prevalence, although as you say the numbers "in the wild" certainly do!
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  8.  @sailingoctopus1  Sweden's death rate TODAY is very very low. It's hard to even see on the graph. . Their case rate is pretty high though, so it's an interesting situation. . Check out the graphs https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
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  9.  @sailingoctopus1  First, to be clear this is academic to me, not political. I studied avian disease evolution in grad school, and this is an amazing experiment as well as a tragedy. Ok so now to the brass nuts. I'm talking about how many people died today per million. (Not cumulative total). . In other words, "How's Sweden doing now?" . Is this due to herd immunity? Better treatment? Evolution of the virus? . I have been saying since February, the virus will mutate to be less deadly, if we isolate the bad cases. . It's still a scary disease but humanity is winning. The poor bug doesn't really want to kill us!! We are learning to work together lol. Human and bug -- Stronger Together.
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  10.  @sailingoctopus1  I think it is pointless to give pats on the back to countries. What we should do is look at actions. What actions worked, what didn't. . Sweden has said it made mistakes early on about exposing elderly. That's something we should not do. Each country has positive and negative lessons. . Sweden (and many other countries) has a low mortality rate today. If we can figure out why... . I suspect that the low mortality is partly due to the virus evolving to be less deadly. This is very hard to confirm experimentally -- but it may be quite important, and generally overlooked.
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  11. Yes and no. PCR positives are truly cases of infection. They are often not cases of illness. . The test identifies virus fragments, and it does it well. The problem isn't the test but the interpretation.
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  12. less than 0.6% of them would be false, and this would be adjusted in the overall estimates.
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  13.  @freshbeanne  even better than chopping and titling, I like one long seminar with a list of time stamps. . I tend to get too many windows open. But thanks for your input! . Often I don't even listen much, I just read comments. Case numbers are boring. Random studies are interesting. We all get something :)
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  14. it varies. call ahead
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