Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Thursday 10 December Pandemic Update" video.

  1. zero. . that is probably an underestimate, but there were no deaths from the vaccine in the trials, so extrapolation would still give zero.
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  2. Would you like to cite the best study/ or a review study? I think that would be wonderful, as just "it works" might not have an impact without the links.
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  3.  @electronwave4551  don't feed the trolls.
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  4.  @gbt722  Those are not mutually exclusive categories. In fact, one is the cause of the other.
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  5.  @walterkooy1307  Excelelent link! I think it works. There are three randomized controlled studies cited, all with the same conclusion: Ivermectin works at all stages to help with covid infections and prevention.
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  6. 10:35 list of NBC mistakes lol . Good job Dr. Campbell.
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  7. Have you ever had a severe allergic reaction? Both the cases discussed had severe reactions to other things, and carried epi pens. . In any case, if you get the shot in a doctor's office they would be prepared for a reaction.
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  8. IFR = 0.26% . you are off by a factor of 13x
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  9. That's not entirely fair. Sometimes they produce recyclable plastics. But yeah mostly garbage. . Unfortunately even PBS often falls in that category, or close to it.
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  10. I guess that's the #1 reason to get it there. If anything goes wrong, the doctor can call a doctor.
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  11. Review paper on it: https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Ivermectin-in-the-prophylaxis-and-treatment-of-COVID-19.pdf
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  12. "CSL also said participants were told before the trial started that the vaccine could interfere with certain HIV diagnostic tests."
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  13. Even the best, PBS, is so bad as to be unwatchable at times.
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  14. You're not allowed to listen to yesterday's video
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  15.  @wboyle5899  What is your TV news like in Poland? . In the US it shows very little information. There are other problems as well, but the most obvious one is a lack of details.
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  16. i don't think it's six doses! have no idea though
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  17. As a 50+ year old college educated American, I agree: our news is often dumb, mean, and wrong.
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  18. I think it is a good idea to treat the mail. One could leave it sitting for a few days, or in the sun for a few hours, or (as we do) put it in the ozone bag for 20 minutes. . Groceries are probably a much bigger concern, but if it is easy to eliminate a possible source...
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  19.  @sharonbraxton6825  Yes, just let it be over! Perhaps there's a compromise, since the site June linked says Cardboard Examples: shipping boxes 24 hours . If we figure paper is more akin to cardboard than to wood, maybe two days.... . But we don't always need more safety, right? Maybe sometimes we need more.... rebellion? Is there something borderline legal that you can do without getting caught? Not unethical, just ... well like I go out to the old stadium ruins in the forest and sit in the stands and shoot trash with an airgun. Helps a lot! . Good luck!
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  20. Why instead? Treatment and prevention are both important...
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  21. immunity lasts longer than antibodies
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  22.  @mastercommander4535  I would agree "why not get the vaccine," but I do not agree that the vaccines seem to have a longer protection. . Natural infections appear to give at least 9 months of >>99% protection. Given the hundreds of millions infected, and assuming a bell curve for duration, it is probably much longer, on average. . The vaccines, on the other hand, give at least two months protection at 95%. It's very good but it isn't 100%, and it isn't 9 months (yet). . So, natural infection appears to be more effective in creating immunity, as well as more risky.
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  23. Good! Excellent! . Also Indiana is one of the few states to ever do a proper count of cases, using a random survey. (Back in May).
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  24. take a walk in the sunshine get your head in the clouds feel the warm earth below you it's a something something lyric...
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  25. And it doesn't stop at our shores. The Sun: I watched a video posted by the UK's Sun newspaper, titled "Protestors Clash with Police in Chicago" and it wasn't in Chicago, and there were no clashes shown. . The Guardian: ran a piece titled "NJ Greenhouse grows plants without water, light"
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  26. Ivermectin got a Nobel Prize. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2015/campbell/lecture/
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  27.  @vickit3124  Blind rivers are no joke! ."Like a river that don't know where it's flowing I took a wrong turn and I just kept going..."
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  28.  @vickit3124  cry me a river? :lolP
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  29. Yes, positivity rates are unreliable. . They are only used because proper surveys are not being done in the US.
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  30. Who got fired in the UK?
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  31.  @classicraceruk1337  OK interesting! I am looking forward to instant computerized fact-checking, and the end of televised news as we know it haha. . I hope they run the fact checking computer live on the air and make it beep out anything untrue. . News Anchor: "The United States has beep beep cases beep beep beep beep today beep beep. Ah heck. Let's go to sports with Jason!"
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  32.  @classicraceruk1337  Yeah that's what I do now. But someday I hope that news will return to its roots in comedy.
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  33. wow it is not on the list, but I don't disbelieve you
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  34. Correction: it is on the list, but not for "wild" cases (0) only "vaccine derived" cases (15) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio
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  35.  @midnightteapot5633  That is sad. The disease is nearly gone, though, around the world. Hopefully it goes all the way out the door!
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  36. They are serving glazed roast Honduras on a bed of sliced documents.
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  37. I'm not sure it does much good.
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  38. I predict that the curve is flattening and will be heading down by January, and will stay fairly low during that month. . We shall see. I hope we can talk again in a month and check! . My prediction is based purely on the shape of curves 1 and 2, and the hint that 3 is flattening. Totally unscientific. . More scientific reasons could include things like "parties matter less than shopping" and "if it keeps going up everyone will be immune soon." But that's boring. Pure guesswork is more fun.
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  39. that's the end point, whatever trails we trod to get there
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  40.  @ruddyhell7800  Yes, or (what we are doing) a combination approach. . We are halfway there. To immunity, and insanity lol
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  41. There are three excellent, randomized controlled studies showing Ivermectin works very well -- but they are all so new that none are peer reviewed yet.
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  42.  @ralph95  Exactly! They usually get the facts correct, but leave out the most important facts. . If a datum can give a basis for informed opinion, it is omitted. This is the Universal Rule Of Narrative and Gore, or URONG. . Case in point: in all the reports on protests in the US, I did not once hear the number of buildings burned, or blocks burned, or dollars of damage. .
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  43. By the raw US test numbers, the mortality rate in this third surge is ~ 1/5th that of the first surge. .
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  44. agree. it looks like a thanksgiving dip/ bump due to reporting delays
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  45. Kory's group: "Data is also now availableshowing large and statistically significant decreases in the transmission of COVID-19 among human subjects based on data from threerandomized controlled trials (RCT)" https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Ivermectin-in-the-prophylaxis-and-treatment-of-COVID-19.pdf
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  46. That link doesn't work. "The page request was canceled because it took too long to complete"
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  47. we need M4A and UBI, at least until this blows over. . I hear Andrew Yang is running for NYC Mayor? Maybe there is hope!
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  48. Yes, although it is not a consistently liberal or conservative agenda. I suppose it is a corporate agenda, from their owners. The owners need to get a life, apparently.
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  49. They should do a random invitation survey and see how close they are to reindeer immunity.
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  50. Best source I've found in the scientific literature: https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Ivermectin-in-the-prophylaxis-and-treatment-of-COVID-19.pdf
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  51.  @XtremeChiliPepper  In addition to official websites like the CDCs, there also there is the scientific literature, accessible by google scholar and other sites. Many articles are free full length pdfs. Some of them I can even understand! https://scholar.google.com/ .
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  52. INteresting question! . There's a lot of data in this report: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/excess-deaths-mortality-coronavirus-covid-19/
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  53. We ordered enough. Probably. . The vaccine is good news, and they can't scare us with good news. So they say the good news may not get to you! They leave out anything comforting. . And no, I am not Trump supporter. .
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  54. NBC is "Trump following?" Meaning, they report on him? . All the major news outlets do that. Come to think if it, they are all untrustworthy as well...
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  55.  @billgiles3261  That's Fox
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  56. Possibly due in part to immunity from the earlier SARS outbreak?
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  57. yikes. thanks for sharing that!
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  58.  @travelwell6049  I'm sure that's true in general, but the Guardian did bring us classics like NEW JERSEY GREENHOUSE GROWS PLANTS WITHOUT LIGHT OR WATER
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  59.  @markjohnson8602  Fair point there! Republican presidents have failed to protect us against the two biggest aerial attacks in recent memory. . To be fair to the elected Democrats, they went whole hog for Invasion Democracy, and are also failing to deal with the virus as badly as Republican officials. . Proof: Not one state is even doing actual surveys to estimate population prevalence. Every state is flying blind. Every scientist knows how to estimate numbers, but no state is listening.
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  60. Indeed. Heirloom hype is past it's disposal date.
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  61. agree, to show a surge one would need to do more than eyeball a bumpy curve, such as analyze a multivariate model with and without a TG effect.
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  62. but he got the virus instead, so no need
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  63. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ . click on the column and it will sort by deaths/m
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  64. My dad, who is pro vaccine, was disgusted with NBC's coverage last night. They were all, "How wonderful, the vaccine is here!" and showing pic after pic of the most painful and disgusting few seconds of the procedure. . What the hell are these news programs trying to do. . Hope you all find some peace in this bizarre time.
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  65. Indeed! Although they still manage to report sports scores correctly.
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  66.  @Alecmcq  Yes lol. One of these days I will do a timeline of a game report, how they skip around more than the Back to the Future franchise. . And then there's the "effort" narrative. LIke pro ballers don't all have motivation.
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  67.  @quantumac  So what you're saying is, spin is unavoidable, but we can account for spin in our models?
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  68.  @JDPri77  Perhaps to judge properly the spin parameters of our politicians, we need exact quotes. . For example, my exact quote would be, "We need random invitation surveys to estimate population prevalence." -Nedward Marbletoe. No specific link or citation would be required, as I say it all the time.
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  69. Not surprising, he is a constant stream of unconsciousness. . Nanci Pelosi has fewer than half her statements rated as "true" by politifact. I think they are planning to be married when this all blows over.
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  70. They don't care. They are not on your side, and that fact does not depend on which side you are on.
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  71. Indeed. But do be careful of the Guardian, they think plants grow without water or light. In other words, they do clickbait comparable to the best of the US outlets.
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  72. Yes, D is fat soluble, so best taken with oils and fats. I have also heard that it can interfere with sleep so maybe not at Dinner.
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  73.  @junehitchcock170  excellent! I don't take it as I get a lot of sun. I would if I didn't. Dad takes it daily.
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  74.  @alexbort3082  I wonder why. Curious.
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  75. I think we have new insight into all the armoured dinosaurs. . PS perhaps add a pair of safety glasses if you are not already bespectacled
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  76. Government data can be excellent. I counted birds for the US Forest Service and the data was... just ducky, thank you very much. . Too bad they don't try to count virus cases! . The test numbers are accurate, I suppose, but they are useless for estimating population prevalence.
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  77. They are on the "liberal" side, nominally. However, I would say that NBC, CBS, and ABC are "highly corporate" and "anti-intellectual while at the same time projecting an elitist educated aura." .
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  78. "is" is not "in"
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  79.  @carolyng.6405  Yes we watch PBS, when it's not on a partisan political subject they can be very good. I have to leave the room for the other stations, and return for the weather and sports. . Imagine if sports were reported to the same level of accuracy as the pandemic... News: "The Bengals beat the Bears 22 to 24 yesterday..." News six months later: "Oh yeah the score was 198 to 24. Which explains why the Bangles won. Stand by for the weather!"
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  80.  @earthangel2524  Yes, and it should all be voluntary. . My dad doesn't like peas because when he was a kid his parents made him eat peas.
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  81. i also don't see a TG surge, although the test positive numbers have not declined
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  82.  blue dog  Weak sauce. . I love Doc, and it is quite plausible that a TG surge occurred, but it is hardly rigorous to glance at a graph of un-systematically collected numbers and say "hypothesis confirmed."
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  83.  @monicaambs  Do you? Then do a study if you like. There are statistics programs that will fit curves and allow one to adjust the number and type of explanatory variables. . Generally speaking, one uses the Akaike Information Criterion to choose among the models. This adjusts for the number of variables, a quantification of Occam's Razor. . Such an analysis could garner significant, and warranted, attention.
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  84.  @monicaambs  Yes, that's the number. . I thought you were saying they came from a Turkey Day surge.
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  85. Udate: now 3 weeks since Thanksgiving, and US numbers do not show a holiday surge. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ . FYI here's why I predicted there would be no surge: 1) family gatherings are a small percentage of exposures, 2) we were already in a surge, so 3) people were already doing maximum health measures. . Also: 4) predictions made with too much confidence are good betting opportunities for contrarians. They are "teachable moments"... , (note: captaingregger was also right)
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  86.  blue dog  Dr. Campbel = good. Dr. Campbell's prediction = wrong. . Occasionally I may seem critical, although I am quite a fan; I should remember the old rule for relationships, "5 positive things for every criticism" perhaps? . Dr. Campbell is compassionate, intelligent, practical, open minded, shows a nuanced understanding of confidence, and overall is a tremendously valuable resource for the world in this pandemic. . His prediction of a Thanksgiving surge was not born out by the data.
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  87.  @caroltopalian593  and ​ @Itsa Goal IMO, the media dumbness is not strictly partisan. . The one standard rule seems to be "No data sufficient for forming independent opinions shall be allowed on the air."
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  88.  @randmorf  I think that is a splendid idea. . The news should not be censored or fact checked -- as funny as that would be -- but it should also not be owned by a half dozen interlocked companies. .
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  89. good question.
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  90. Did he say it was over-reaction? Or more like the press had an incoherent message with incorrect facts and hyperbole. . It's quite serious. People could die from shock. It is also probably rare and treatable since we will get the vaccine in the doctor's office.
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  91.  @fionalees9311  Yes the media are horfible. I see what you mean. .
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  92.  @pdkrace  Did I say "everyone"?
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  93.  @pdkrace  Ok. "Mark, get some sunshine!"
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  94. I think that is quite possible. One study found it may have begun in August in China. . "Satellite images and online searches indicate China had coronavirus in the fall, Harvard study finds" --https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/coronavirus-may-have-been-spreading-in-china-in-august-harvard-study.html
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  95. as one commentor commented, tastes like apple perfume
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  96. yeah it's pretty much an educated guess with no statistical support that I have seen.
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  97. NBC Nothing But Concern
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