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N Marbletoe
Dr. John Campbell
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Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Sunday 5th April, Global Update" video.
Right, that's a strategy that works when there are not many new infections per day.
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Peter Raymond Yeah, if RO is 2, that a small outbreak rapidly gets hard to control. However, I'd note that shedding period is probably more like 3 days before symptoms on average, and peak shed is first few days after symptoms begin. This gives isolation and quarantine some chance to work. There probably has to be tracing as well as testing. In Korea, you get texts about latest cases. In China, everyone is tracked by phone, and you get an app that tells you if you came close to a known case. (so I hear) Many experiments to watch and see what works.
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@dsmith9796 They can do the job, it's not super complicated, --- but the hospitals better give them decent PPE!!
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localize it :)
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@BouncySlim1 ?! Wow, but that is possible. Nobody driving etc.
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@megantomblin823 We needed Pinball Wizard and we got Comfortably Numb
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Peter Raymond I'm sure it's very very difficult, but I am thinking that the new people can help doing specific things that are often not difficult but take a lot of time.
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Soon we will reach the xenophon of the pandemic.
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I heard one estimate of 24k deaths in Hubei (vs 3k reported). Lombardy numbers on deaths last year vs this year, hinted that virus deaths are about 3 or 4x the reported numbers. So I wouldn't be surprised if numbers from many countries are actually 2 to 10 times higher than reported, for various reasons.
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@megantomblin823 About 80% of the world was led by idiots i guess, and the ones that weren't actually most of them had recent major outbreaks like SARS or MERS... so I guess experience matters a lot.
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@lmp7179 yeah, i agree. and small towns are somewhere in between. we have to isolate and avoid a lot of business, but we also have to drive out to the ranch and take care of stuff.
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Yay!!! Thank you so much for the update. I'm in a small town in NM, only one case known so far. It's pretty easy to isolate here except at Walmart. Yesterday I saw most people had masks, for the first time. (or scarves)
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not much evidence yet that it works, or doesn't, from what i can find on google scholar
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https://www.monaldi-archives.org/index.php/macd/article/download/1290/1007
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Citation? I looked at google scholar for most recent chloroquine reviews, and they were all neutral on it. E.g. from March 27th: "The interim con- clusions from the published literature is that there is no current evidence of use of chloroquine for treatment of COVID-19. The use should be restricted to clinical trials with strict vigilance and follow up to further clarify the role. As of date 23 clinical trials are underway [2], only after the results of which, can the role of chloroquine in management of COVID-19 be decided." https://www.monaldi-archives.org/index.php/macd/article/download/1290/1007
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