Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Sunday Pandemic Update" video.

  1. they reduce risk of spread of any kind of respiratory virus or bacteria
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  2. We should end the term "lockdown" unless it involves actual locks or punishment for going outside the house. . Argentina may qualify. . Public health is good, lockdowns... maybe only in the most extreme situations and even then the cost is also extreme. .
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  3. A "case" is not a very detailed term. A case of infection would be one type. A case of illness another. A "contageous case" yet another. . So there is a problem if people mean differnt things but don't say so. The worse problem is that we want to know population prevalence, right? But that takes random sample surveys. . "Confirmed case" numbers -- no matter what type of "case" -- are not appropriate for estimating the true population numbers.
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  4. Those numbers are not based on proper random sampling. . They could be off by an order of magnitude or more for any given nation. . That said, we've got no plan in the US and no monitoring of actual prevalence.
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  5.  @guidospanoghe8896  As you say, a positive PCR result is a sign of an old or a new infection. . Also right, even a low false positive rate is a real problem when prevalence is low! . We need random sample studies to estimate prevalence... it's too important to leave to chance lol
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  6. If you are immune it means the virus cannot get a hold and grow in your body, so there should be few to no particles. . Resistant is the term for people who don't get badly sick but do sustain an infection.
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  7.  @azijnseikert1918  Maybe the virus has evolved to be less deadly but more infectious. This would not be unexpected, since we have isolated severe cases around the world, creating a selective pressure favoring viruses causing mild symptoms.
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  8. I was a teacher. During training I got to go around and watch various classes in various schools, to learn and take notes. I learned... If a few kids misbehaved, they were being mischievous. . If every kid misbehaved, the teacher was being mischievous. . Thus, I cannot blame the general populace of the western world. I think that there is a systemic problem.
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  9.  @colliecoform4854  Yes, we flattened it like a steamroller. People needed a pat on the back, and then to make a new strategy together. . All the states have plenty of cases now, so it wouldn't help to restrict interstate travel, and I agree with you it would be found illegal as well as impractical and unwise. . We do not need programs that cancel human rights for little to no public health benefit.
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  10.  @GTI-Eddy  I agree, a balanced approach is necessary for society. . To do that we need real time quality information. Thus, monitoring via random invitation studies is a top priority. . "To avoid the arrow observe the archer."
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  11. D3 is in animals, D2 is in plants. Does it say which one is in your suppliment?
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  12. link to the study on Switzerland?
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  13. Dr. Mobeen thinks it is that the immune system is stuck on overdrive. He says a couple shots of steroids (doctor supervision) might help long haulers.
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  14. For a realistic view, look at random sample studies only. Haphazard numbers are not valid for inference about the population -- they can be way way off without even offering a hint about their errors.
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  15. Argentina avoided the first wave, now they have the second wave. . What did they do that worked and why is it not working now
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  16. Koch's postulates are outdated
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  17. Done as in, reached herd immunity?
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  18. Yes they are heading for herd immunity -- but they are not there yet, else the infection numbers could not increase nationally so fast. . Herd immunity's signature is an R < 1, on average, which would disallow a rising curve that on worldometers graph of confirmed cases for Sweden. . The low deaths -- extraordinarily low! -- combined with rising cases could be virus evolving. By isolating bad cases and letting the mildest ones spread, we have created selection pressure for a less deadly virus. . This is very hard to prove since it is considered bad form to run exposure trials on humans when death is on the line. .
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  19. "Case" is a neutral term, it can be a "case" of whatever. A symptomatic case of covid is what you are calling a case. . The way nations seem to be using the term "Confirmed cases" it seems to be cases of infection, with or without symptoms. That is valid, as long as it is clear to people what they mean.
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  20. nobody thinks it's a cure do they?
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  21. I think many states never returned to school, so I think that may be only true for some of them... .
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  22. also most car accidents are not that bad
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  23. There seem to be so few cases that re-infection within a year must be extremely rare. . Maybe immunity only lasts a couple years, but there's no sign of it giving way after 8 months here. . (PS flu and cold are not coronaviruses)
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  24.  @ZXspectrum..  Yes let's hope! . Ok and so yes, some colds are coronavirus, and some are other types.
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  25. And likewise, if there is a physical condition check mental health first. I mean, not first, but at the same time. Holistic...
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  26. I agree we can't close state borders -- certainly the states can't. Good thing too. Let's not give Trump the power to be Xi. . The first flattening worked but we don't really have a strategy after that...
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  27. Deaths are a good count of deaths. How to count infections? Random sample survey is the only proper way. . I'd like to see reports of only such reliable data as well. However, most countries aren't doing the right sort of sampling...
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  28.  @kungfreddie  OK Yeah now I totally see what you are saying! . I agree, we should shut down as little as possible and be as healthy as we can. The general strategy today doesn't seem very balanced. It's kinda all or nothing, bouncing around. We haven't really agreed on what the strategy should be as a nation. The leaders aren't asking us what to do, they're telling us, but it doesn't seem well thought out. Has the strategy even evolved? It should be adaptive as conditions change. .
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  29.  @lizeggar2421  Check out the MATH+ protocol, Dr. Been explains it really well. The stages of the disease etc. including when to get medical help and when you don't need it, when to use steroids, etc. But yes the best thing is to be healthy! . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvmhrdrYLUM . (idk if that's the best video for MATH+ but I find the guy very excellent in general)
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  30. The Nomniscient Marbletoe grants your wish: You receive Step 1: . I. Monitor. . Currently most nations have no weekly random invitation surveys. We flyen blind. . "There is no substitute for randomness."
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  31. Confirmed cases are simply not a reliable measure of prevalence, for any nation.
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  32. try google scholar
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  33. ​ @markfcoble  No I am just saying for the unfamiliar, google scholar is a great resource. You can even input the date rage. https://scholar.google.com/ . E.g., search "mask virus" and click "custom range" on the left hand menu. . Adding the term "review" to such quieries can be very helpful if you get too many hits -- review articles are great. They can reduce the reading from 500 papers to 1 or 2.
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  34. They seem so rare they could just be anomalies.
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  35. Interesting, found a write up of two cases. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30158-4.pdf . Both patients had false positive Dengue tests, but turned out to have Covid. . The false positives were serology though, not PCR.
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