Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Second Wave Update" video.

  1. Dr. Been is awesome! His interviews go into detail down to the molecule. Thanks for the reminder.
    2
  2. OK, like they are in Europe! (sarcastic means of pointing out that the virus ignores partisan politics)
    2
  3.  @carveh13  Yeah, I am not a fan of lockdowns. I think it is a terrible metaphor. We should be smart, not 'tough' on the virus. I favor public health, not authoritarianism. Seasonal influence seems likely, but indirect. The virus itself doesn't care much about air temperature; however, it spreads more with people indoors together. . The waves are due to multiple factors, surely. . There's a lot we don't know about the virus. Some of it is hard to research (e.g., "Is it evolving?") and some of it is easy, but neglected (e.g., "How many people have it?").
    2
  4. What is a wave though. .
    2
  5. true, it's clearly a third wave in the USA, just looking at the graph of confirmed cases. . of course, that is not a scientific estimate of population prevalence, but it is a number.
    2
  6. garlic is fantastic. idk about this virus but probably helps
    2
  7.  @kidsteach938  Yes, I did notice that you were specific to your situation, and I respect your approach.
    2
  8. 94 cases out of how many people
    2
  9. take heart. at least Europe is just as bad
    1
  10. define "wave"
    1
  11.  @Will-vs5kp  define "wave"
    1
  12. What we really need instead is a program of monitoring, using random invitation surveys. That is the only way to scientifically estimate things.
    1
  13.  @surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531  Where do you get the estimate of 8.2% of North Dakota infected today? . It could be right -- but it would be ~ 10x the confirmed cases.
    1
  14.  @surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531  Ok thanks! . By the Worldomieters numbers, I find 1.3% of North Dakota is now infected. (10k/ 762k) = (active infections / state population) = 0.013 . I do suspect that the numbers are low by a factor of between 2 to 10, as they are haphazard self-reporting counts, and not derived from a proper random sample survey. . However, if the point is "Dakota got it bad" then the numbers certainly agree, either way.
    1
  15.  @surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531  Ah yes, I thought you meant "are infected" rather than "have been infected" when you wrote "population infected." . Your 8.2% is correct from those numbers!! This means that herd immunity is progressing, but still far from the level where it offers population protection. . What this country needs is a good five cent cigar. . By cigar, of course, I mean random sample studies. Monitoring of the disease using proper random sample surveys has generally uncovered a prevalence 2 to 10x the raw "confirmed case" counts. So it could be 16%, or 80%... although I doubt that 80% of ND has had it. When herd immunity takes effect, R must go below 1, and outbreaks will die out rather than explode.
    1
  16.  @carveh13  There actually was a wave in the summer. The USA is in the third wave now. . The waves are proof that public health works. However, the USA has no monitoring program. We have no advance warning. Random sample surveys are required to get eyes on it.
    1
  17.  @carveh13  Yeah, we COULD know how many have it, using proper randomized surveys, but we don't have such a program. . Random sample surveys are cheap and easy, so why are they being largely ignored...? . We are driving in the dark with the headlights off. Oh well... someday Humanity will invent math, and we will be a beautiful butterfly.
    1
  18.  @adamspencer95  Yes, the Elon Musk tests were rapid antibody tests, not the extremely specific and fairly sensitive PCR.
    1
  19. But Europe has just as many cases. The explanations are probably not political, although they involve the utter failing of our political parties, it's not just one party or even just one nation or continent.
    1
  20. We in the US need information. . Where are the latest infections coming from? WalMart? Gas Station? Gyms and bars (unlikely)? . We don't know, they don't say on the Nightly News, there's little information available online. It's like trying to swat a fly in the dark with a noodle, in the age of 1000 candle power atomic flyswatters. . Not that I would hurt a fly, but it would be nice to shoo him off the oatmeal. . We also have no monitoring program in any state, or for the country. Flash: You can't hit what you can't see. Random sample invitation studies are needed almost as much as a vaccine.
    1
  21. I believe it would be, yes. I don't know how long to cook it though.
    1
  22. False positives are less than 0.6% of all tests. They don't affect the numbers much in nations that have many cases. They are very important for individual planning however.
    1
  23.  @robertlivingston360  It's not cheery picked, there are two ways to look at false positives. Number (1) is the % of non-infected people that test positive. Number (2) is the ratio of false to true positives. . Number (1) is < 0.6% as I said, which leads to a huge number for a huge population, as you said. . Number (2) depends on the number of true positives in the population. If there were zero infected people, the ratio would be infinite. . Both are important. . Number (2) is a big deal for individuals deciding what to do about a test result. Number (1) is important for estimating population numbers.
    1
  24. Humans can dramatically influence the evolution of a disease, which is probably happening now. It is hard to study however, due to ethics.
    1
  25. lack of sleep, yes
    1
  26. NY had it run through old folks homes. . Then they got serious about prevention. . It's the same pattern in most/all of the states that had very early outbreaks.
    1
  27.  @bill9989  I think that your OP is correct in the psychological dimension -- big early problems led to careful behavior. . I am sure we are getting better at protecting the elders. Sweden also had a ton of deaths in the first wave, and also Washington State. . Basic principles were ignored, such as don't put sick people with healthy people. Also there were not many tests available! They couldn't tell who was asymptomatic. . My big issue today is that we have no monitoring program for the virus. We only have the case counts, which is not a scientific way to estimate population prevalence. Random sample testing is cheap and easy, but it's being ignored.
    1
  28. They won't need it. . (hopefully)
    1
  29.  @RingedStag  Sure, it's political, but governors can't hold up distribution, they are governors not doctors, Jim!
    1
  30.  @madmickey78  Japan is beginning a third wave. . The numbers are about 1/100th those of the USA, but the waves are quite distinct in the case counts. . (Admittedly, case counts are not valid estimators).
    1
  31.  @rogerstarkey5390  correct
    1
  32. He has been saying the reverse -- dark skinned people need supplements more than light skinned. . However, the reverse is also true, geographically. High latitude people need supplements more than Tropicals in the winter. . The logic is the same. Get enough sun, or take pills. . In optimum conditions it only takes two minutes of sunlight to get the recommended minimum of D.
    1
  33. "fat free" is an awful trend
    1
  34. yes; although they are having another wave now, it is 1/100th the size of the US or European wave. . They eat very healthy food and many wear masks on the subway even in normal years. We could learn a lot from Japan. . Also they don't shake hands or eat in public. There has been no shutdown in Japan at any time, afaik. Public Health may work better than ending the functions of society...!
    1
  35. it's not flu, flu is way down this year
    1
  36.  @kidsteach938  46,000 people have taken the first dose.
    1
  37.  @kidsteach938  I also want to wait some time --- see how the first 100 million doses go. . However, the mortality rate more like 0.28% than 0.0001%, agnostic of age.
    1
  38. but how long was she? was she normal length?
    1
  39.  @indlovubill7100  thanks that's a pretty big study! . Looking good for the Pfizer vaccine, eh? . The rollout among health care workers will expand that number greatly, and we can see if there are more rare side effects, and confirm the effectiveness...
    1
  40.  @indlovubill7100  agree 100%. I'm hopeful, but happy that the health care people will get the vaccine first because they will be very good at reporting problems. . It should always be voluntary. I'll get it once it is established and working.
    1
  41. Greek mink virus was NOT mutated. The Dutch one was mutated, but not the Greek one.
    1
  42.  @buchanfoulsham6314  Thanks, good job people! . That's one small step for a mink, one giant leap for minkind.
    1