Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Pandemic weekend update" video.

  1.  @jerrycann9072  That NIH page does not cite any randomized, controlled trials. . Perhaps Google scholar will come up with better studies.
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  2.  @thankmelater1254  Great paper!!!! "Data is also now available showing large and statistically significant decreases in the transmission of COVID-19 among human subjects based on data from three randomized controlled trials (RCT)" using Ivermectin. . https://osf.io/wx3zn/ (meta analysis link from that youtube vid) . That's what we're (not) talken' bout! RCT!!
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  3.  @OceanFrontVilla3  Agree. Also because vaccination isn't 100% protection against the virus. . When almost nobody in the world is getting it... that will be the world's proof
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  4. Random samples are required for statistically valid estimates. When such surveys are done, they find 5x to 10x or more cases than the raw, haphazardly collected test positive counts. . The entire test-counting thing is misguided and misleading. .
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  5.  @ChiDraconis  Interesting! That ruling spawned the anti-vacc movement and was used to support Eugenics. . Great citation! Terrible policy.
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  6.  @mjtcpa  For some reason I find it always a bit humorous when a confidence interval spans zero. . In other news, a meta analysis of 174 studies found that masks gave 14% reduction in risk of infection. Eye protection gave 10%. Every 2 meters distance gave 2% more. . Few things are 0% or 100%. Life is generally found in the middle somewhere.
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  7. I think it would be 11% have been diagnosed, using the "8 infections missed for each one found." . That would make the total in the USA come to 15 x 9 = 135m.
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  8. I'd be interested what you thought of this: "Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19" https://osf.io/wx3zn/
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  9. about halfway to herd immunity in the US
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  10. ok, don't link to it either
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  11. yes, we appear to be halfway to herd immunity in the US . countries need to do random sample surveys. counting test results is not a valid way to estimate total cases.
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  12.  @dscott1524  Some of them. I think Dr. C. knows about the problems with extrapolating test totals to the whole population. He's gone into some detail on the UK's random sampling program, the CDC report of 9x cases, etc. . I hope that Joe Biden is reading too! Random surveys are cheap and easy.
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  13. Hydogenated oils/ trans fats were killing 400,000 in the USA each year. . They are being quietly phased out...
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  14. Citation?
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  15.  @julio10004  The USA and Argentina are not doing the proper surveys to estimate total infection numbers. . It is not a surprise to me that a plan fails when it is missing key information. For a large nation, only random sample surveys can estimate the virus prevalence.
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  16. They meet December 14th.
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  17. Because it's a sneaky virus. Same one Europe and Canada have, in fact! And similar numbers. . Also because the US (like most countries) has no monitoring program to track the true numbers. Flying blind.
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  18. Danish study confidence interval: masks prevent (47%, -23%) of infections.
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  19.  @mjtcpa  Indeed, "Although the difference observed was not statistically significant, the 95% CIs are compatible with a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection." . That's what I meant by a Confidence Interval of a (46%, -23%) benefit. . Bottom line, the data was too messy to say if masks helped or not.
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  20.  @wd1501  Sometimes it seems like the MSM is working for their owners more than their advertisers.
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  21. From the data we have so far, such as it is, it appears that natural immunity is much greater than the 90-94% vaccine immunity. . I have no citation for this.
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  22. false positives are extremely rare. < 0.6% of tests.
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  23.  @jeniw8586  Yup. And if N95 are good why they don't send them out to people. . Do this, do that, but little actual data or material help...
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  24. cite?
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  25.  @ChiDraconis  I will take that as equivalent to saying "never mind"
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  26. I think the figure is 9x recorded infections.
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  27. citation?
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  28. There were elderly and at risk in the trials. . The demographics of the phase 3 Moderna trial, with graphs: https://m.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/content_documents/2020-COVE-Study-Enrollment-Completion-10.22.20.pdf
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  29. 70% not 40%
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  30.  @georgeinjapan6583  Yes, halfway to herd immunity!
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  31.  @angelatester2471  What Gates actually said was "Um." which people interpret in different ways.
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  32. Yes, since it did not provide 100% protection from getting sick, there would still be a small chance of spreading it.
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  33.  @mastercommander4535  Fair point. Small has no precise definition. We can say the chance is probably "smaller" with vs without the vaccine. . Blogs are unconvincing, however. Is there any actual data? . One might guess the transmission is reduced 95%, like symptomatic cases, but where is the data...
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  34. It goes up and down with activity. Does it get higher after a walk around the house?
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  35. That's what I thought, but it turns out that "president elect" has no set definition, as it is not mentioned in the Constitution.
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  36. cite it?
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  37. That's why we need random sample testing to estimate prevalence.
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  38. nice! what companhy?
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  39. When proper estimates are done they quite often find 10x as many cases as the testing totals found.
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  40.  Peter Mortensen  Halfway to herd immunity: 9 x 14m = 126m people have had it 126/330 = about 1/3 of the US 1/3 is halfway to 2/3 threshold for herd immunity
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  41. 6 times more effective
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  42. hat's just a term that people use, it has no official status.
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  43. citations appreciated! (randomized controlled studies only please, or meta-analyses) . Randomized controlled study from Bahrain: "Ivermectin with doxycycline reduced the time to recovery and the percentage of patients who progress to more advanced stage of disease; in addition, Ivermectin with doxycycline reduced mortality rate in severe patients from 22.72% to 0%; however, 18.2% of critically ill patients died with Ivermectin and doxycycline therapy. " preprint, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/10/27/2020.10.26.20219345.full.pdf
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  44. Virus is not political. . The midland is now dropping, and the coasts rising, in case numbers. It's simple transmission without regard for voting preference. . https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states
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  45.  @debbierichards135  Yup. All states got their wave. Both parties got blamed unfairly. . Or perhaps both parties deserve blame. No state is even counting cases properly (with random invitation surveys).
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  46. Flu is rare because... people are washing their hands, staying away from others when they are sick, and wearing a mask at the store. . Check up the flu season in NZ, which has no covid, it's also way way down there.
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  47. 99.74% .
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  48. There is no official definition of "president elect." It is not a term used in the constitution, for example.
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