Comments by "N Marbletoe" (@nmarbletoe8210) on "Problems before vaccine arrives, 27 November" video.

  1. rate is about 0.25% . test positive numbers are a very poor way to count cases. only random sample sureys can do that properly. I presume the CDC just did one to get the 8:1 estimate.
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  2. I thought the CDC said it was 8:1. That would give about 1/3rd of the country, over 100m. . I can't find the actual CDC report yet.... , OK I think the discrepancy is that the 53m number is from the end of September, and now it would be over 100m by the same 8:1 ratio applies.
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  3.  @tomlavelle8518  I wish we could bet some $ on that, because no way will it reach 2m by Jan 1st. .
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  4.  @williamvanscottnelson2605  ok wow, looks like a wild place! . "It took its name from concrete slabs that remained after the World War II Marine Corps Camp Dunlap training camp was torn down.[3] Slab city is known for lifestyle that contradicts ordinary civilized lifestyle.[4]" . I myself often contradict ordinary civilized lifestyle.
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  5.  @williamvanscottnelson2605  ok I am on it!! . the best time for northern NM is late summer/ early fall, when the chiles are roasting and the monsoon has greened the mountains. cu then!
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  6. It has evolved to be more intelligent than a news anchor. . Scientists are hopeful it will soon reach amoeba IQ.
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  7. We're not even doing proper surveys, so it is hard to factor in anything math related. . CDC just said we are missing 8 cases for every 1 test positive.
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  8.  @deborahhebblethwaite1865  It is true. The 8m/ 53m numbers were from the end of September. . The CDC just said that 8 cases are missed for every 1 positive test. Thus, the total now is ~ 100m who had the virus, and 13m positive tests. . This is about halfway towards herd immunity, where R is generally below 1 and outbreaks tend to die out rather than spread and grow. Herd immunity does not snuff out the virus immediately. In nature, in fact, herd immunity is dynamic, often with seasonal and local outbreaks.
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  9. To estimate cases, random sample surveys are required. . The test positive numbers are not designed to estimate population numbers. They are simply counts of testing results. It is not surprising if they are off by 2x, 10x, 26x, or more. . The news has not made this clear. . The USA and Canada are not trying to monitor the actual numbers in the population. They are just reporting test results. It is a very poor substitute for proper survey methodology.
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  10.  @KlausJLinke  yes, similar rates in this third wave . i wonder if they are also missing 8 cases for each test positive
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  11.  @martinroberts9792  There is generally a tradeoff between lethality and infectiousness.
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  12.  @aswler  People are being careful but the virus is being sneakier. . It's a doozy of a bug. It has decided to become less deadly but more catchy. Meanwhile we humans aren'te ven counting cases properly. . Our one advantage -- math -- we are squandering.
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  13. both half dose and full dose were still better than no dose
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  14. That would also explain Belgium's high numbers.
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  15. Medicine has improved slightly since 9000 BC when Voltaire lived. Yet, the quote still applies, because the world is really quite amazingly detailed.
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  16. they screwed up the test. they didn't mean to do a half-dose group.
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  17.  @hellogoodmorning3405  They have to be included. The other vaccine trials did include elderly and people with conditions.
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  18. immunity lasts much longer than that for natural infections
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  19. Some conspiracy theories are true. Vaccines, they are good. Not perfect, but I like them. . However, it would be silly to deny "conspiracy theories" in general, or to denigrate people for holding non-official views. We all know our governments are capable of some pretty sick stuff.
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  20.  @vickit3124  Depends on what your definition of "is" is ;)
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  21. I suspect it is a fluke result.
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  22. Good catch! We do have to watch our language. . Rights are not granted or given by any government. Rather, people form governments in order to preserve their rights and promote the common good. .
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  23. Yes, I think that the 53m is a month out of date, and it is now 121m approximately (by that 8:1 ratio). EDIT: 2 months out of date
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  24.  @tomlavelle8518  Ok that's reasonable
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  25. It was the correct decision, even if it was not the healthiest.
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  26. excellent idea.
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  27. Or higher!
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  28. Canada also probably has 8 cases missed for every 1 test positive...
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  29. "the perfect is the enemy of the good"
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  30.  @NibbleIT  Right. 13.3 confirmed cases -- actually, not confirmed cases, but rather, "positive test results." (some people take it more than once etc.) . The much more scientific number is the estimate of 101m infections, cumulative.
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  31. It was "approved" then but not yet distributed, I think. .
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  32. They may find similar sequences in wild bats... in SARS the First, they found 100% identical sequence match between the first case in the UK and a bat in Saudi Arabia.
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  33. Slab City!? Is that a nickname? . I live in "Smack City" lol.
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  34. No malls or bars open in my state, NM. . Where you at? Is it really like that?
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  35. we love india
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  36. People should have the right to refuse, period. . It's ok if they need one to go to school or get a certain job, but blanket vaccine mandates would be unethical.
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  37. yes, it means that your odds of getting the disease are lower, but not zero, with the vaccine. unless the vaccine gets to 100%. . The vaccine might also reduce severity.
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  38.  @nzer57  Yes, and this virus was not from eating bats. People don't even eat that type of bat. Apparently peoiple got it from pangolin, who got it from bats. . We have gotten disease by eating fruit bats. Those should be off limits due to rarity as well as danger. . Our industrial food system needs help. Hunting wild animals is actually safer and more humane, in places that are regulating it properly to avoid endangerment of the species.
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  39. Indeed, we must look for a cloud of virions in space. Does the moon have a mask yet? We should send it one. It would be a good example for the world to look up and see their favorite satellite cares about them.
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  40. I would think not, as the natural immunity seems much higher than the vaccine generated immunity.
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  41. Yes, sounds like they are over halfway to herd immunity. . But we don't know the multiplier. 4x, or 2x, or 8x... which is why we need random sample surveys.
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  42. The way the term is used, a case is someone who has circulating viral RNA. . A case could really be a case of anything... beer... cat collars... mice... cat toys... dog whistles... mice collars... they really need to talk more precisely on the news.
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  43.  @halley4032  I often hunt wild sauces in the southwest.
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  44. not a peer reviewed study. I read it and it makes some rather large assumptions, such as, every case was hospitalized. Like, what!? But yeah. . In fact, a bit of envelope math with the numbers you give show that the whole thing is doubtful, perhaps comedy not science. . Did it appear in the Onion? They do some great parodies. Sometimes it's hard to tell.
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  45. Interesting! That really should have been released/ reported right away. . Hiding information is rarely good if it is impossible to hide.
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  46. We have to get our good news from the Good News Network, because the other networks can't use good news due to licensing requirements.
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  47. someone diluted once too many times?
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  48. he does talk about it, but it deserves much more attention
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  49. Admiration, whatever, but at least have some perspective. . UK is worse than USA in deaths per million. So are Belgium, Spain, and Peru. . Shaming is an outdated means of control. Let's use facts and reason, perhaps.
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  50. peckish, perhaps, but not hungry
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  51.  @rijamor  It is refreshing to see a realistic survival estimate on youtube comments! . Regardless of opinions, we at least can agree on some facts.
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  52. that certainly is possible. what is the best link or citation for that, on a technical level? I was a bio major
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  53. yup. they are from end of september. about 2x that now
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  54. I wonder what IBM's Watson has to say about the virus...
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  55. no, it is just a messenger literally
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  56. good questions
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  57. Those were not PCR tests, they were rapid antibody tests. . So, not comparable.
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  58. You say "denial" but this is the headline: Free Vitamin D pills for 2.5 million vulnerable in England
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  59.  @philipwells2793  There sure is! . But at least they are also giving away vitamins, and perhaps starting to recognize the research. . I have similar issues with the press and government in the US. We're not even trying to count total virus cases here. Complete ignorance of scientific sampling concepts.
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  60.  @alanvanallen7762  I think that is correct. The PCR test is very sensitive and can pick up fragments of RNA from the virus long after the infection has been defeated by the body.
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  61. by both. all of the immune % add up to reduce R
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  62.  @irfanfarid  I think you may be right, we might get to herd immunity before the virus has a major effect. . We are at 30% immunity already in the US, according to the CDC.
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  63.  @neilpeartspurplenose8739  Yes, 13m/ 100m now (end of November). The 8m/ 57m numbers were from the end of September. .
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  64. Ok. Point awarded for prescience. But why did they design one with such a low mortality and such a high infectiousness? What was the strategic goal? . I am not arguing against the concept, but following the consequences. . Was it an accidental release? That would explain some things... .
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  65. yes, the 53m was from accidentally using data from the end of September
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  66. Actually the 0.25% rate is the average over all ages/ conditions. . .
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  67. In the past 2 months, there have been 50m infections, reaching a total of 100m now. . At that rate, it would take ~4 more months to get to herd immunity of ~ 60 or 70% of the population.
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  68. Yes, good catch. The 53m number is from end of September, a mistake, out of date. Today's number would be ~ 13m x 8 = 101m. . This results in a IFR close to that 0.23%
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  69. Batman vs Superspreader
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  70. Missing 8 cases for every 1 counted!? . Thank you, CDC! As I have been saying for 9 months, we need random invitation surveys to estimate the true numbers. . In sports, we know the score. In war, we know the number of tanks. Why do we not have a proper monitoring program for the pandemic? . Random sampling is cheap and easy. Hopefully Joe Biden will realize the value of knowing the numbers.
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