Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "AMA livestream(go to Pearl for full version)" video.

I disagree, any long term slow down of agriculture in the previously USSR countries is easily predictable (as you suggest). But because of this, I think the idea of a global famine due to a slow aging of the work force is nearly impossible. Between the ability of these countries to adsorb immegrants, the slow increase in graon prices that would occur YoY and cause additional investment internationally (huge amounts of US crop land are used to produce Soy/corn for biofuel/animal production). An unexpected famine fue to war, totally possible. But as this has been adverted, I don't think this pathway is reasonable. Maybe an ocean fishery collapses. Big worry. But even in that case, I think globally famine can be controlled. Their are simply to many solutions which are moving forward to aggressively.
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I don't think a chinese "pioneering culture" is necessary important. If even 1% of the population decided to (against cultural norms) it would still be comperable to American colonization. En-mass in the chinese sense could be very few people. The aging point is far more relevant to me. But I think China is happy to control a resource producing Hinderland wothout direct cultural ownership. Whether with Russian or Korean or Pakistani immegrants. So long as the region is Chinese dependent and serves to China's requirements, it can act as a resource colony
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Right off the bat, hyperinflation meams 50% inflation per month. So Just no, your statement is wrong. Russia is in a very powerful global position in the supply chain, with food and energy though. And Asia as a manufacturing hub is in a strong position. But aging will obviously impact Chinese society as the population pyramid inverts.
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Any examples of how your beliefs have changed
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@1panomotion847 Africa is a net food importer which is concerning. There is also potentially for large scale drought across the Sahel regions and in the south. While their are strong agricultural regions, they are generally dependent on imported fertilizer which is problematic.
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@1panomotion847 Please prove me wrong! Also concerning is Africa's dependence on Fish for Protiens and the potential for fishery collapses and general heavy metal/micro plastic poisoning.
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@thesimpleanswer2264 So to the first bit, yes it was taken off the market but it isn't technologically difficult to produce. If you told me a war would immediately distribupt production I'd buy it, but the fertilizer industry slowly shutting down due to an aging demographic? Hydrogen and Nitrogen just aren't that difficult to produce. Rising energy costs in Europe will be a short lived phenomenon. Renewables, nuclear refurbishment, and LNG moot this overall. If europe continues a war footing woth Russia it could be problematic, but remember there is access to African pipe lines and the Netherlands could ramp up production in a medium run scenario. Soil fertility is an absolute long run concern. Mono cultures as well. But with fertilizer access I believe grain production is stable, and certainly not something that can be predicted.
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@thesimpleanswer2264 I was referring to NG, not oil. Oil luckily is a globally traded commodity so a price surge in europe will be global in extent. NG on the other is generally proced Regionally (due to the low levels of NG) so I would have greater concerns about its long run effects. I do feel Renewables offer a medium range solution regardless. Growth is unprecedented. Demand side measures in europe, including insulation and heat pump installation, has been aggressive over the summer, and with a full years preparation I don't doubt efficiency measures will be impressive. And non German response (particularly french) has been more positive, which is positive on whole considering the universal nature of the grid.
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