Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "" video.

I don't agree with this idea "Bitumen is to valuable to burn". Firstly, buring it can provide a lot of value as well, we haven't come close to an electric Jet, and today there is a lot of value in my car working. But far more importantly, in 40 or 50s, as a consequence of the effectively free energy of the clean energy revolution, we will simply make carbon fiber, or any carbon molecule, from CO2. There is no future in saving Bitumen. It certainly has an advantage for material science for the next few decades, but long before we run out anyone in the world will be able to use air and sunlight to make any carbon fiber item they want for less than the cost of shipping rhe Bitumen. If you want to argue we aren't cost competitive with OPEC, I disagree. Or that pipelines will be stranded assets from dropping oil demand, I disagree that we can't do added value work at the far end to create demand. But certainly there is no reason to intentionally keep bitumen in the ground to use a century from now..
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If the suggestion here is ICE is better, you're ignoring obvious distortions like the fact cars on the road reflect 20 years of buying or the tariffs that exist.
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1st Industrial revolution: Coal 2nd Industrial revolution: Oil 3rd Industrial revolution: Natural Gas 4th industrial Revolution: Silicon ^ massive over simplification I would say that the second industrial revolution over the 1920-40s share the most with today. The 1920s saw a peak coal demand that wasn't reached again for 50 years. Massive electrification occured; local transmission companies taking factories off their private coal steam engine, rural areas getting lighting, appliances like fridges replacing Ice blocks and ovens replacing wood/coal stoves. A complete reordering of industry..
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@gregorymalchuk272 1st should include trains and long distance transportation, and the steel plow. Really the Bessemer proceas to make steel, which allowed rails and boilers and plows, which itself was allowed by coal 2nd is pretty spot on but oil plays a key part in the chemical industry and automotive revolution. 3rd should include globalized shipping (container boxes, refrigerated ships, oil tankers), jet aircraft, the green agricultural revolution and fertilizer. Maybe nuclear but that was wasted. Radio should be in the 2nd. 4th is missing all the energy technologies, reusable space craft, additive manufacturing/3D printing, and material science improvments (Carbon Fiber, ceramics, alloys etc with very specific molecular layouts). Maybe nuclear if it's not wasted..
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One area not discussed here, and for good reason, is Wind. Wind energy ultimately has no future. It is certainly effective today, particularly in Canada and similar hydro power economies where it cost effectively maintains water levels in dams longer through the year. But in China or America, wind is really little more than a way to keep the steel and concrete industries operating. Maybe carbon fiber will make longer, lighter blades that are cheaper. But in the long term, at least in my opinion, the module nature of solar panels will lead to a virtuous cycle of more leading to lower cost leading to more production. At least for consumers and commercial activities, Solar will be the future of energy production.
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I think you are mistaken and perhaps reflecting a Western Canadian view when you say the future energy transformation is unknown in Canada. In Eastern Canada that absolutely isn't the case. Newfoundland has a 3GW wind farm being built to power green hydrogen exports, and all the maritimes have an equivalent. In Ontario even Doug Ford the Conservative Premier is aggressively pushing EVs and Battery manufacturing and EVs, and clean steel. The Ring of Fire is held up as the Ontario oil sands of the future..
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.I think it's really lost on people, even supporters of the energy transition, just what an incredible magic trick China has pulled. Like a manic hippy dream girl, China is powering it's society with crystals and sunlight. People still talk about energy efficiency when we are on the precipice of effectively free energy.
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On the discussion around tariffs on Chinese EVs, I don't think either is making an argument for why they are bad. Yes, China is going to dominate the global market. But if the Goal is for the US and Canada and Europe to be part of the manufacturing in that global market, China can't also dominate our markets. If we open the flood gates to Chinese EVs and Solar panels, we are resigning ourselves to be nothing but consumers, and probably exporters of raw materials..
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@ryuuguu01 I have no issue with BYD building EVs in Canada. But I am entirely against opening to Chinese imports. But we are learning to make EVs, we have several manufacturers opening shop. I think it's silly to believe only the BYD option can lead to success. Once we have mining and refining, that is our advantage, full supply chain in a jurisdiction. We won't be competitive as long as we are buying our inputs for China for sure..
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I got a bit of whiplash from how quickly you two went from saying we would be leaving money on the table by buring Bitumen because of the incredible value of Carbon fiber to saying in 10 years no one would want our bitumen. Even if they aren't making gasoline or RPPs, will China and the world not want Bitumen for making Carbon Fiber? Will they not want Carbon Fiber we produce in Vancouver or Pronce Rupert at the end of a pipeline?.
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@ryuuguu01 What does Alberta do with the other 75% of the barrel, though. What are the higher value portions you are referring to, and why can we not produce enough Carbon fiber and those fractions to justify additional capacity? And the dilutent used to move DilBit, around a 3rd of a barrel, is going to see long term demand for petrochemicals being mainly NGLs. If we built another 1M bbl/d to Prince Rupert, that's 330k bbl/d NGLs we can feel safe with, 140k bbl/d Asphaltenes we can sell for non combustion, and around 500 k bbl/d heavy fractions that can be sold for or as jet fuel/diesel/Base oils, or else upgraded to NGLs using cracking units.
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