Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "" video.

I know its a relatively small market, but more should be said about North South electrical transmission to the territories. Manitoba to Nunavut, and Saskatchewan/Alberta to NWT.
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I disagree that Canada can't be the worlds energy super power even in the new economy context. The Battery plants you mentioned are critical to support as part of a full chain industry, but an area we can have a global position in. All of the Atlantic provinces have significant Wind power to Ammonia projects for exporting ammonia. We have significant hydro reserves that can be developed along side Quebecs wind manufacturing industry to power aluminum smelter or data centers or Chip FABs or any energy heavy activity. I think one area we need to be cautious of is Solar. There is no doubt in my mind Solar is on track to be cheapest form of electricity; but it will always be more cost effective somewhere near the equator than Canada. And Canada has really no ability to capture the production market. What I would like to see is a push towards SMRs. Canada is a leader in nuclear technology, and I while this is lower on the S-curve because China has been aggressive on Solar, I would argue its the only alternative to solar for competitive power in the long run. Particularly for large industrial uses that include heat amd steam. We can do in this field as China has for Solar and become a world leader. Geothermal offers another such potential.
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Idk if we're an Energy Superpower. Maybe an Energy sidekick, but the US is the Superpower here and we just support them.
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In terms of Energy security, China and Europe are absolutely trying to move off oil for energy security. But, as a producer, we do have differing strategic needs here. And our biggest vulnerability is pipelines running through to US to Ontario
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I agree we will never catch up on LNG production. The distance to market is simply to great, and LNG isn't a very high margin market. We can probably expand West Coast exports some, we might be able to export out of Manitoba on the Hudson's bay, if Quebec starts fracking we could export some east. But overall there isn't a lot competitive advantage. However, we could produce more oil than the US. The Permian is not an infinite resource, it will start declining. Whereas the Oilsands may not be infinite, but they are nowhere near an output limitation. And we can produce, raw Bitumen at least, at incredibly low and competitive prices. Sure oil overall will decline, but there is a 100M bbl/d market globally, and we produce some 5M bbl/d. Even if the market collapses we have room to grow.
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You should put more focus on heat pump manufacturering as an aspect of our future economy. We will be a relatively small market globally, but a very large market for very cold weather heat pumps. That means we will either be underserved by German and Japanese firms, or we can own this particular market globally
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@What-q4n I hope you are aware that just about everyone in Montreal and West is also using Alberta oil for their gasoline. No one doubts fossil fuel is still required. The critism in this video, which I don't agree in all aspects with, is whether we should invest in a project that won't deliver fossil fuels for 5 years at best, and which would have to continue to for 20 years to pay itself off.
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@sylvialoffredo3887 honestly the answer is Because of China. China has put just about the full force of their industry into battery manufacturing and solar panels. They have done this because they are fundamentally energy insecure, and oil, and to a much lesser extent coal, imports are widely seen as their largest strategic weakness. And they have made it insanely inexpensive to produce and store electricity and are continuing to drive costs lower. This will have the triple impact of; cutting oil demand dramatically further empowering OPEC to squeeze our industry, meaning we are no longer a low energy cost jurisdiction, and because China controls supple chains while being a generation of manufacturing ahead of us they will become the global energy exporter. I think we should be investing heavily in SMRs to try and make the magic hot rocks less expensive than the magic crystals that turn sunlight into electricity. And windmills keep the steel and concrete industry alive. But Europe also wants energy independence, and between the two they will create a large enough market that any country can become energy independent for less cost than conventional energy. We need to become a player in the new markets because our traditional markets will be retracting. So to heat specifically the expectation power will be less expensive and because in the 70s heat pumps weren't as developed. Also in the 1980s OPEC flooded the market and the US deregulated natural gas, which undercut the movement to electrify (although that seems to be happening right now, China and seemingly Europe are far more determined to push through this time).
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@polishtheday Solar on Commercial roof tops, Solar over parking lots, and solar floating or raised over reservoirs or Canals - although idk how floating does when if freezes, so that may not be for Canada. Solar farms for Agrovolactics are also good. The issue is utility scale solar is much less expensive to install, and as panel costs drop, instillation costs become more relevant. Home+battery systems are definitely good, but also definitely not the only part. I think Solar + Geothermal could be revolutionary for the praries. And I think people underestimate how fundamentally 2hs of on site storage change reliability and grid stability.
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I think we're more likely to see 4 grids, BC-Alberta and Manitoba - Saskatchewan being largely seperate. Long term these may unify but its high hamging fruit, I think Manitoba and Ontario is probably more likely than Manitoba Alberta..
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@bhut1571 well, the idea is to convert one of those NG lines to carry oil. I think there is a lot of reason to do this, both lowering our imports and ensuring secure supply from the US.
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@l.d-b3465 there is a deep irony to hoping it will warm up enough for shipping LNG out if the Arctic. But I don't think this will every be a practical solution.
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@kurttosczak8544 At the moment it appears that way, although one day and rapidly battery demand will collapse for super capacitors. Not that I'm against Batteries, but I'd argue your comparing technology at different points on the S curve. Also, a big advantage of Batteries is the higher efficiency of energy conversion. But that's only meaningful in expectation that energy is costly; if solar does what is expected and makes electricity like water, then a 30% cycle efficiency for hydrogen has no meaningful cost. There are advantages to Hydrogen. No critical materials that rely on foreign supply chains is enormously beneficial and the reason Japan has been loyal to the technology. Hydrogen also has enormous demand in chemical inputs. And Alberta has very high demand for upgraders; sure it's still oil, but if 10% of a barrel is renewable hydrogen that's a win. Or more broadly, CO2 + H to LNG could remain a relevant export. And we have Hydrogen for export facilities being built in each of the Atlantic provinces. Aerospace also may be a very large industry. Projections around StarShip suggest it could become an enormous LNG user. Hydrogen fueled alternatives could become meaningful fractions of the energy demand.
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@pongyi123 it's most certainly not 100% imported from the Saudis. Is mostly American and Nigerian crude iirc. And something like 2/3rds is exported to the US, so good luck staying at 300k bbl/d. Overall not sure what your point is. I also support an east coast pipeline. But this isn't an argument for one, so idk what it is
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@davidleaman6801 so you're saying park a 300k tonne floating ship off a pier, hang it by a crain so that it pulls down as tide fall pulling the cable to produce around 100MW for each meter drop for 6 hours, before pulling against an anchor while the tide rises and doing it all in reverse? Google says the world's strongest crane can do 20k tonnes, so you would need 15 of those, probably 20 to account for maintenance. That sounds expensive but I have no ideal how it scales, and it seems to me like the kind of thing bulk makes rapidly inexpensive. And a ship is only $100M. Idk certainly interesting.
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@jonmce1 I wonder if our aluminum industry will survive, or allow to survive, Carbon fiber.
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@davidleaman6801 yes I understand the idea of tying a floating platform to the sea floor and spinning an axel as the platform rises. What I haven't seen as a workable design. But solar, wind, and geothermal are just as abundant and free. You could argue the same of uranium. Even static electricity. The question is how to generate power.
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@davidleaman6801 you're talking about the company that lifts block correct?
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Turning oil and gas is low efficiency if you want to make electricity or Kinetic energy. But a lot if the time you just want heat.
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@bhut1571 I agree, NG may last even longer than that in industrial heating, where the only alternatives, imo, are either SMRs or Hydrogen
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@AmiGanguli the economics of just building some storage is a lot better than 4000km of transmission
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@BrianLacombe-f5l I don't mean to be rude, but I have no idea what you're saying. Can I ask for context on; what happened in Ontario and at what time period, what was expensive, what problem are you referring to, who are the 2-3 man PR Proud boys and how were they backed,
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@BrianLacombe-f5l I mean I am both Canadian and follow politics. Are you talking about Ford going back on renewable contracts? Is the problem in the system feed in tariffs? I don't have an guess at the last one
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@dougwhitehead-k3m C 69 was already gutted by the courts. Nothing relevant is left.
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@gwenmader4334 energy isn't some fixed pathway where you have to go from Coal -> Natural Gas -> renewables. China is never going to switch to a high fraction of Natural Gas. Nearly half their energy generated last year was renewables, and they are adding something like 10% of their grid capacity yearly. They haven't built their entire advanced manufacturing base to run for 5 years and shut down; they are going to continue increasing solar and wind and storage to their grid and exporting energy independence globally. Look into how many solar modules they produced last year and the scale of their manufacturing base.
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@lesliegweir I agree. I said Hudson Bay may allow LNG.
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@polishtheday I agree it's very unlikely Quebec starts fracking. My point is that that is the only way we will ever export LNG from eastern Canada, unless our or a foreign government are willing to lose money on it.
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@terrydengis5405 ya it would be pretty silly to live somewhere reaching -40 relying on nothing but an air source heat pump.
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@RealKarlReid I've long felt the best solution to this, as well as correcting for the Dutch disease oil caused us in the 2000s, is for royalties to go to Albertas wealth fund, and that fund to be invested domestically and in non-oil sectors. If Alberta could say "look we just invested $1 billion in a Chip FAB in BC or a battery plant in Ontario, and we did it with oil money" there would be a lot more appetite in other provinces. But at the same time, it allows Alberta to keep all the direct wealth and no sharing is required.
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@davidleaman6801 I have no issue with Tidal but I have yet to see an example that can compete with Solar or nuclear imo, at least without destroying the coast. That said I like the idea of floating wind turbines that also generate tidal power.
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@kurttosczak8544 I certainly don't think Pipelines are THE answer. I think they are an answer to some specific issues and part of the solution overall. I'd argue the time it takes to build are within the timeline we can expect US demand to fall, and we are a low enough cost producer with a product that will maintain relatively high demand compared to conventional oil that we can hold market share in Asia.
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@kurttosczak8544 I agree with that prediction. What I disagree with is viewing bitumen as oil. Oil decline is drive by EVs cutting out gasoline demand. That's leading to more demand for very light oil for petrochemicals, and very heavy oil, like our own, for jet fuel and diesel. I believe we are more competitive than the Saudis for this reason, they will struggle to market conventional oil. I also would disagree with a 10 year time line. 5 years I think is achievable if this is a political goal, particularly since we have pipeline proposals that were well developed before being shelved. You also have to consider existing assets invested. Losing $10 billion on pipelines that saved hundreds of billions of otherwise stranded assets is not something I'm against, particularly in regards to an east coast line.
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@kurttosczak8544 I very much disagree with this stance. I don't think the Emergency act would be required to expedite construction, I think public buy in is available and easily encouraged, and Environmental studies for several routes already exist to allow safe but quick reviews.
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@Mrs_Susan there is a 500 kV line coming south from Moosnee to Sudbury and then Toronto. I'd say the best option is to upgrade that to Quebecs 750 kV standard, and connect Moosnee to the James Bay Hydro stations in Quebec. At the same time, build a 1000km HV DC line from Manitoba to the Ring of Fire in Ontario as part of development there. And Finally another 750 kV line between the Ring of Fire and Moosnee. It isn't exactly a connection because Quebec can't sell to Manitoba. But Manitoba can alternate between selling 2GW east or reserving that power to send west while Quebec sends power to southern Ontario and Ring of Fire. Only works if you have a large load center in the Ring of Fire and actually develop it, though. And relatively soon it will probably be cheaper for everyone to just have their own grid since storage will make transmission balancing less important..
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@sylvialoffredo3887 honestly the answer is Because of China. China has put just about the full force of their industry into battery manufacturing and solar panels. They have done this because they are fundamentally energy insecure, and oil, and to a much lesser extent coal, imports are widely seen as their largest strategic weakness. And they have made it insanely inexpensive to produce and store electricity and are continuing to drive costs lower. This will have the triple impact of; cutting oil demand dramatically further empowering OPEC to squeeze our industry, meaning we are no longer a low energy cost jurisdiction, and because China controls supple chains while being a generation of manufacturing ahead of us they will become the global energy exporter. I think we should be investing heavily in SMRs to try and make the magic hot rocks less expensive than the magic crystals that turn sunlight into electricity. And windmills keep the steel and concrete industry alive. But Europe also wants energy independence, and between the two they will create a large enough market that any country can become energy independent for less cost than conventional energy. We need to become a player in the new markets because our traditional markets will be retracting. So to heat specifically the expectation power will be less expensive and because in the 70s heat pumps weren't as developed. Also in the 1980s OPEC flooded the market and the US deregulated natural gas, which undercut the movement to electrify (although that seems to be happening right now, China and seemingly Europe are far more determined to push through this time).
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@davidbruce5377 your mining cost is based on Kearl. The first generation mines have much higher costs. And those higher costs a significant portion of the jobs in Fort Mac
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@albertiwong your theory relies on Electricity being expensive enough to have to ration. You do need high temp for solar panels, but it doesn't have to be coal. And in fact hydrogen burns hotter. Coal is just used because it's all done in China right now
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@polishtheday the idea here is to produce hydrogen for export.
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@DougSteventon shipping oversea is why we have so much green Hydrogen being built in Atlantic provinces. But energy efficiency isn't really meaningful in the context of a large scale build out of cheap solar.
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