Neolithic Transit Revolution
William Spaniel
comments
Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "Why the Russia-China Pipeline Dispute Is an Even Bigger Problem for the Kremlin than It Seems" video.
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@donderstorm1845 it certainly wouldn't be seen that way. Sanctions on Russia have finally pushed a market crash and Gazprom into loss. This would be an enormous life line for a project that, as you point out, China doesn't need.
To be clear I'm not saying they wouldn't buy gas from the pipeline, but that they won't fund the gas line.
And part of this also is that power of Siberia 2 connects to the European gas pipes, so this would allow gas that's stuck in the ground because of European sanctions to flow, alongside with the employment and revenue, which admittedly would be lower then selling to Europe.
Although that's another reason China doesn't want to fund the pipeline, if Russia normalizes relations, it can threaten to sell to Europe and drive up the price, compared to power of Siberia 1 that has no alternative market. POS2 would actually allow POS1 to reach that European market, and potentially drive up prices there as well.
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@donderstorm1845 It would certainly appear to, and be portrayed as, and in all practical ways be throwing a life to a Russian Economy currently seeing an economic collapse driven by a loss of oil and gas activity. An investment worth 10s of billions into the area of the Russian state most heavily under construction would not be taken kindly by the west, particularly when it could be taken as a reason to weaken China, and the CCP is aware of that. Particularly since, unlike Power of Siberia (POS) 1, this would connect to the existing fields in West Russia which have been pushed out of production by European demand drop, and directly undermine European sanction efforts.
To be clear, I'm not saying China wouldn't buy gas from such a pipeline, but rather it won't pay to build it.
But this brings an additional point against China wanting the pipe line, which is that POS2 would allow Russia to move NG, even NG from POS1, between the European and Chinese Markets, and drive up their own prices.
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@donderstorm1845 It would certainly appear to, and be portrayed as, and in all practical ways be throwing a life to a Russian Economy currently seeing an economic collapse driven by a loss of oil and gas activity. An investment worth 10s of billions into the area of the Russian state most heavily under sanction would not be taken kindly by the west, particularly when it could be taken as a reason to weaken China, and the CCP is aware of that. Particularly since, unlike Power of Siberia (POS) 1, this would connect to the existing fields in West Russia which have been pushed out of production by European demand drop, and directly undermine European sanction efforts.
To be clear, I'm not saying China wouldn't buy gas from such a pipeline, but rather it won't pay to build it.
But this brings an additional point against China wanting the pipe line, which is that POS2 would allow Russia to move NG, even NG from POS1, between the European and Chinese Markets, and drive up their own prices.
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@johnnykey00 A mix of Chinese statements, EIA reports, and analysist.
China will replace gas with Domestic gas (China has the world's largest shale reserves they are actively developing in Tarmin and Sichuan), renewables and energy storage (Besides the well known Solar and Wind build out, China also has 60GWs of pumped hydro storage in construction, leads in Global Green Hydrogen production, and has an enormous battery industry with millions of cars that will be retired in a decade providing enormous amounts of low cost storage), domestic coal, and in Northern Cities which use NG for domestic heating heat pumps and solar water heaters (which China leads the world in production and application), alongside demand drop from the long term and potentially sharp decline of cement and steel production (steel being largely produced in the North East were the current major domestic production in and POS1 enters the country).
Or maybe China won't. It's unclear. But that lack of clarity makes China less willing to commit to a massive upfront investment.
And investment which would be seen as throwing a lifeline to a Russian economy struggling under Oil and Gas sanctions in Europe, and in particular would connect the very gas fields European actions have taken offline to Chinese demand and bring them back into production. This might matter less now than a year ago, because of existing tariffs and the emerging trade war, or it may matter more.
But worse yet, from the Chinese perspective, a China-Europe connection would allow Russia to shop between markets for a higher price, and potentially even sell gas from Fields developed specifically for POS1 in Europe, increasing the prices China currently pays.
LNG is advantageous for China because it's such an open market. Sanctions from the US? Go the Australia and Canada? More sanctions? Russia and Qatar. The price of LNG has stayed very low, killing investment after 2015, until a price spike caused by Europe in 2022, and even now prices have stabilized near old lows. LNG delivers to the actual population centers, particularly in South East China, that are thousands of Km from Gas fields. In part it's been used to drive NG investment locally so that extending pipelines makes sense and South China Sea oil Associated gas can be economically used, in part it's been part of China's efforts to clean up their air quality in cities and displace Coal, in part it ensures competition in pipeline prices and enerfy security (a lesson learned by Europe), and in part LNG is an alternative fuel for vehicles that China has significant investment in. I mean, China literally created the industry out of nothing. China doesn't want to be Europe on 10 years, relying on the Russians for Gas only to see it used against them. Lowest price doesn't mean lowest cost.
As for your last bit of moral mombo jumbo, I don't make the rules, the US government does, and the rules say the US gets to win. What it's done wrong is start to win.
But it's a pretty ironic protestation you have "we all have a right to economic growth, why should China be punished for funding a country actively destroying another countries infrastructure and economic base". I mean, be serious.
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@johnnykey00 A mix of Chinese statements, EIA reports, and analysist.
China will replace gas with Domestic gas (China has the world's largest shale reserves they are actively developing in Tarmin and Sichuan), renewables and energy storage (Besides the well known Solar and Wind build out, China also has 60GWs of pumped hydro storage in construction, leads in Global Green Hydrogen production, and has an enormous battery industry with millions of cars that will be retired in a decade providing enormous amounts of low cost storage), domestic coal, and in Northern Cities which use NG for domestic heating heat pumps and solar water heaters (which China leads the world in production and application), alongside demand drop from the long term and potentially sharp decline of cement and steel production (steel being largely produced in the North East were the current major domestic production in and POS1 enters the country).
Or maybe China won't. It's unclear. But that lack of clarity makes China less willing to commit to a massive upfront investment.
And investment which would be seen as throwing a lifeline to a Russian economy struggling under Oil and Gas sanctions in Europe, and in particular would connect the very gas fields European actions have taken offline to Chinese demand and bring them back into production. This might matter less now than a year ago, because of existing tariffs and the emerging trade war, or it may matter more.
But worse yet, from the Chinese perspective, a China-Europe connection would allow Russia to shop between markets for a higher price, and potentially even sell gas from Fields developed specifically for POS1 in Europe, increasing the prices China currently pays.
LNG is advantageous for China because it's such an open market. Sanctions from the US? Go the Australia and Canada? More sanctions? Russia and Qatar. The price of LNG has stayed very low, killing investment after 2015, until a price spike caused by Europe in 2022, and even now prices have stabilized near old lows. LNG delivers to the actual population centers, particularly in South East China, that are thousands of Km from Gas fields. In part it's been used to drive NG investment locally so that extending pipelines makes sense and South China Sea oil Associated gas can be economically used, in part it's been part of China's efforts to clean up their air quality in cities and displace Coal, in part it ensures competition in pipeline prices and enerfy security (a lesson learned by Europe), and in part LNG is an alternative fuel for vehicles that China has significant investment in. I mean, China literally created the industry out of nothing. China doesn't want to be Europe on 10 years, relying on the Russians for Gas only to see it used against them. Lowest price doesn't mean lowest cost.
As for your last bit of moral mombo jumbo, I don't make the rules, the US government does, and the rules say the US gets to win. What it's done wrong is start to win.
But it's a pretty ironic protestation you have "we all have a right to economic growth, why should China be punished for funding a country actively destroying another countries infrastructure and economic base". I mean, be serious.
1
@johnnykey00 A mix of Chinese statements, EIA reports, and analysist.
China will replace gas with Domestic gas (China has the world's largest shale reserves they are actively developing in Tarmin and Sichuan), renewables and energy storage (Besides the well known Solar and Wind build out, China also has 60GWs of pumped hydro storage in construction, leads in Global Green Hydrogen production, and has an enormous battery industry with millions of cars that will be retired in a decade providing enormous amounts of low cost storage), domestic coal, and in Northern Cities which use NG for domestic heating heat pumps and solar water heaters (which China leads the world in production and application), alongside demand drop from the long term and potentially sharp decline of cement and steel production (steel being largely produced in the North East were the current major domestic production in and POS1 enters the country).
Or maybe China won't. It's unclear. But that lack of clarity makes China less willing to commit to a massive upfront investment.
And investment which would be seen as throwing a lifeline to a Russian economy struggling under Oil and Gas sanctions in Europe, and in particular would connect the very gas fields European actions have taken offline to Chinese demand and bring them back into production. This might matter less now than a year ago, because of existing tariffs and the emerging trade war, or it may matter more.
But worse yet, from the Chinese perspective, a China-Europe connection would allow Russia to shop between markets for a higher price, and potentially even sell gas from Fields developed specifically for POS1 in Europe, increasing the prices China currently pays.
LNG is advantageous for China because it's such an open market. Sanctions from the US? Go the Australia and Canada? More sanctions? Russia and Qatar. The price of LNG has stayed very low, killing investment after 2015, until a price spike caused by Europe in 2022, and even now prices have stabilized near old lows. LNG delivers to the actual population centers, particularly in South East China, that are thousands of Km from Gas fields. In part it's been used to drive NG investment locally so that extending pipelines makes sense and South China Sea oil Associated gas can be economically used, in part it's been part of China's efforts to clean up their air quality in cities and displace Coal, in part it ensures competition in pipeline prices and enerfy security (a lesson learned by Europe), and in part LNG is an alternative fuel for vehicles that China has significant investment in. I mean, China literally created the industry out of nothing. China doesn't want to be Europe on 10 years, relying on the Russians for Gas only to see it used against them. Lowest price doesn't mean lowest cost.
Edit: importing LNG from the US and western countries also gives China some leverage, particularly in red states.
As for your last bit of moral mombo jumbo, I don't make the rules, the US government does, and the rules say the US gets to win. What it's done wrong is start to win.
But it's a pretty ironic protestation you have "we all have a right to economic growth, why should China be punished for funding a country actively destroying another countries infrastructure and economic base". I mean, be serious.
1
@johnnykey00 @johnnykey00 A mix of Chinese statements, EIA reports, and analysist.
China will replace gas with Domestic gas (China has the world's largest shale reserves they are actively developing in Tarmin and Sichuan), renewables and energy storage (Besides the well known Solar and Wind build out, China also has 60GWs of pumped hydro storage in construction, leads in Global Green Hydrogen production, and has an enormous battery industry with millions of cars that will be retired in a decade providing enormous amounts of low cost storage), domestic coal, and in Northern Cities which use NG for domestic heating heat pumps and solar water heaters (which China leads the world in production and application), alongside demand drop from the long term and potentially sharp decline of cement and steel production (steel being largely produced in the North East were the current major domestic production in and POS1 enters the country).
Or maybe China won't. It's unclear. But that lack of clarity makes China less willing to commit to a massive upfront investment.
And investment which would be seen as throwing a lifeline to a Russian economy struggling under Oil and Gas sanctions in Europe, and in particular would connect the very gas fields European actions have taken offline to Chinese demand and bring them back into production. This might matter less now than a year ago, because of existing tariffs and the emerging trade war, or it may matter more.
But worse yet, from the Chinese perspective, a China-Europe connection would allow Russia to shop between markets for a higher price, and potentially even sell gas from Fields developed specifically for POS1 in Europe, increasing the prices China currently pays.
LNG is advantageous for China because it's such an open market. Sanctions from the US? Go the Australia and Canada? More sanctions? Russia and Qatar. The price of LNG has stayed very low, killing investment after 2015, until a price spike caused by Europe in 2022, and even now prices have stabilized near old lows. LNG delivers to the actual population centers, particularly in South East China, that are thousands of Km from Gas fields. In part it's been used to drive NG investment locally so that extending pipelines makes sense and South China Sea oil Associated gas can be economically used, in part it's been part of China's efforts to clean up their air quality in cities and displace Coal, in part it ensures competition in pipeline prices and enerfy security (a lesson learned by Europe), and in part LNG is an alternative fuel for vehicles that China has significant investment in. I mean, China literally created the industry out of nothing. China doesn't want to be Europe on 10 years, relying on the Russians for Gas only to see it used against them. Lowest price doesn't mean lowest cost.
As for your last bit of moral mombo jumbo, I don't make the rules, the US government does, and the rules say the US gets to win. What it's done wrong is start to win.
But it's a pretty ironic protestation you have "we all have a right to economic growth, why should China be punished for funding a country actively destroying another countries infrastructure and economic base". I mean, be serious.
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