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Neolithic Transit Revolution
Good Times Bad Times
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Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "Good Times Bad Times" channel.

What really needs to be discussed is how Turkey, both as a direct backer and overt supporter of Sunni Ideology, is to benefit. Oil rights? Water control? Greater influence over Iraq, and through which undermining of Iran?
266
Alex did a great job! Just not quite the voice we've come to trust.
102
The alamite issue is tricky. They were often collaborators in an oppressive government. Not that all were. But to you let Bashir supporters who commited crimes walk away or risk over punishment of a group. Even if you strike the perfect balance, you will be accused of both.
95
 @thephoenix215-po2it They make Navy ships still
81
Thank goodness the video has the fine Polish I've come to o expect.
79
The property crash is an intentional result of Chinese policy to lower housing prices and reduce building. Exports and FDI are due to sanctions, and imports being down is in some ways beneficial, the chip war being the main issue. I expect exports to pick back up in the second half of the decade and Chinese solar panels begin being exported. Deflation is again partially intentional. Youth unemployment is not homogeneous, and mainly effects rural uneducated youth and woman who are being pushed to have kids instead of work. I agree China has substantial issues, the aging demographic key among them, but they used the demographic well to create a surplus of infrastructure, housing, and renewable energy going forward. I expect them to enter a recession in the next year, but I don't expect anything near a depression.
75
It's claimed in the video more territory means needing more defenders. I disagree with this, the former border had to be defended regardless. By moving into Russia, the Ukrainians are able to target the E38 highway, amd weaken Russia logistics in the entire North. They have also taken two layers of Russian trenchs, and are likely to eventually push the Russians out to the Sjem. Overall this more defensable position with greater room to fall back lowers the number of troops required.
75
If the Sudanese Government can push the RSF out or take an advantage, there is a real risk rebels will flood west into Chad and destabilize what is currently the only relatively secure country in the Sahel.
37
 @matanelsiboni9269 Israel did assassinate someone in the "Iranian white house". I can't imagine Israel would have not bombed a country in a similar situation.
34
The conflict should be viewed in the regional context as much as National. Arab and Islamic malitias have been taking power or leading rebellions across the Sahel, notably the coup belt to the west. Burkina Faso is a center of Islamic terrorism, but the entire region has become a hub. To the North the Lybian civil war, while not as strongly ethnic in context, does have a relevant religious element. Even to the North Egypt has been dealing with Muslem brotherhood rebel groups in Sinai, and of course the Gaza conflict rages on its border. Its easy to condem the military government of Egypt, but important to consider what a democratically elected islamic government could mean for the region. The South Sudan conflict isn't long in the past, and the Potential for south Sudan to be included in the conflict is very real. And Ethiopia to the south is teetering on civil war, with Eritrea likely to be pulled in. And further south of South Sudan, Rwanda ans Uganda are brewing conflict with the Congo. The RSF, along with Lybian mercenaries fought in Yemen under UAE employ, where they were improved in caliber. The UAEs context in pushing these Arab militias should not be understated, nor should Russias role under the Wagner banner in destabilizing the region to access cheap mineral wealth. Africa is at risk of seeing war from The Congo to the Mediterranean and the Rea sea to the Atlantic. And Sudan is at the Center.
28
@matanelsiboni9269 which was after Israel attacked an Iranian embassy. This is a very long term tit for tat that's been going on for a decade. Between supporting Iran and Israel I'd prefer Israel, but I'd also prefer Israel follow human rights laws and stop expecting unilateral control over the region.
24
@adamelghalmi9771 but greater control of Syria is greater control of Iraq's water, over oil pipelines, and over a very porous border.
20
 @agitador UAE and Arab Colonialism perhaps, the Sudan was an Egyptian/Ottoman Colony long before Europeans knew you couldn't sail west to Asia
19
Unfortunately you should add that the Ukrainian line of defense has been breached in several places. I had expected the line to hold russia until mid September at least, this may be a bad sign.
16
Russia would have just invaded again in a few years.
16
My understanding is that the Saudi's heavily funded the production of the Pakistani nuclear program, and had access either through transfer or NATO style sharing if Iran gets access.
12
So... Somalia is the only non-autocracy? It's not exactly a role model.
12
What will happen to Syrian Army supporters? I have heard they are in Sudan helping set up Russian bases? In the long run will they be the newest group of militants for hire in the Sahara and middle east?
11
I believe you are.
11
@mohammedahmed1109 Don't be absurd as though the Ottomans hadn't colonized most of North Africa long Before Europeans were sailing or Islam wasn't spread to the region through war and displacement a thousand years ago.
10
I just want to point out while thier are a huge Surplus of units to the population, they are largely shoeboxes. It wouldn't surprise me to see walls ripped out to make 2 units into a single, small unit.
10
@aneurindavies5943 What on earth is that meant to mean
9
Well that simply is untrue.
9
This war could be effectively ended by ending the Lybian civial war. This is mot the industrial war of Russia and Ukraine or Irans and Isreal. This is people in pick up trucks with small arms. If the Supply routes for fuel and arms can be cut, the war ends.
9
Egypt has probably been dealt the worst hand of any country. Literally every one of its neighbors is currently at war, including the Houthis closing the Red sea and Israel and Palestine blocking Natural Gas development. And that's following Covid shutting down tourism and shipping for 2 years, and it's two largest food suppliers going to eat with eachother. You hear a lot about the "risky" mega projects, but realistically most of these were needed. How can you anticipate things going so poorly all outside your domestic control.
9
that's a pretty gross exaggeration, Islam plays no Part in Ukraine and Russia or the Koreas or Taiwan. Generally the actual religion plays little role in conflicts in the middle east/North Africa as well, but because of porous and somewhat randomly drawn boarders the name of islam is used as a unifying flag for the arab population.
9
@dan61131 I like you're optimism but not only is that not tactically or logistically possible but it would be political suicide in terms of western support or Russian support or even being big enough to actually lead to a nuclear warhead. It apears with some small fighting along the Sjem aside, the Ukrainians are digging in at this point, not continuing the offensive now that the element of suprised has lost value.
9
@muhammadadeel8639 wow. That's a new claim
8
We need a UN Mandate over both Palestinian regions, with a coalition council of Saudi, Egypt, and Jordan (and potentially UAE and Turkey) in charge, and a local Palestinian police force under their Command, and a small IDF rapid reaction force also acting as peace keepers under the councils command. We obviously can't have local rule, Hamas is an example of the danger, and the population is widely radicalized for understandable reason. We obviously can't allow Arab military control of the region, as Israel would never allow it. And we obviously can't have Israel in control. This allows accomodation of all. The mandate should last 20 years, with an off road map allowing local elections for a continuation of mandate, single Palestinian state, two seperate Palestinian states (and a second election for Gaza if it chose unification and West Bank chose to go alone, for example), an option for West Bank to join Jordan, and Gaza to join Egypt, or either to join Israel. That provides skin in the game for all members to aim for successful development. Syria, Iraq, Morocco, Lebanon, Kuwait, and Qatar should also be in an advisory role, with potential for the UN to swap them in if a state in the council sees a government direction not amenable. And Israel should be allowed certain veto rights that can be over ridden with UN general vote to address security concerns.
8
@lif6737 excellent reply.
8
@skp8748 I don't think its correct to call it a full scale civil war, I would agree its a localized insurgency, amd along witht the Tigray militias what I am referring to by teetering. But if this constitutes a civil war, than Egypt should be said to be in Civil war due to the insurgency in the Sinia, ans I don't think most would agree that Egypt is in civil war. edit: also, when you say for 5 years, you're encompassing two conflicts, which while related, effect different regions and involved differing groups, with Fano backing the government in the Tigray war. But regardless, it doesn't really undermine my point on the stTe of the region.
7
@TheGrace020 don't underestimate your enemy.
7
What I think is under discussed is the absolute GLUT of oxygen this implies. If electrolysis becomes the norm, oxygen co-produced is going to dwarf modern ASU production, which may make a slew of technologies relevant. Oxycombstion comes to mind, burning NG or Biomass in pure oxygen removes Nitrogen from the flue gas, which makes the products just H20 and C02, and its very easy to seperate water from a gas. In some places, that water might even be a valuable product, like SAGD in the oil sands. Also, Casinos tend to pump in oxygen to make you stay awake feel good and gamble all night. Maybe morally dubious, but I would be interested in seeing if boosting O2 during the mid day in retirement homes had a similar effect.
7
@somebody7337 maybe Ukraine has lost land now, but Russia has been entirely crippled in doing so, and Ukraine will walk away with security guarantees.
7
I feel so dumb for not having thought to look into this
7
@herdimmunity2507 I think Turkey in all likelihood can work well with Israel. Not being Arab and having a history of dealing with Arabs in a certain way I don't think there is much friction. I also don't think they will necessarily do poorly as the regional power; although I wouldn't suggest the ottoman empire is a useful argument for modern Turkey's ability
7
I want to say the Irish set the precedent. Or maybe Serbia. Could have been Algeria though. Edit: wait was it the US?
7
Well, tbf, the current military government is in charge because they kicked out the Muslim brotherhood, and they won't let Gazans in because they are worried it will add to their ongoing insurgency by the Muslim brotherhood in Sinia.
6
@Ese_osa I think that's a slight simplification because the USSR was the legal owner, not Russia, and Ukraine was constituent to it. By the same argument though Lithuania and Tajikistan were nuclear powers. Similar to if Washington state left the US,m and returned Nukes. But some USSR member states like Ukraine had UN seats, so it's again more complex. But according to the Budapest memorandum, all signatories including Russia and the US agrees the Nukes were the legal property of Ukraine prior to transfer.
6
@philjameson292 if India can can it's sh*t together. They are, like China, aiming to use renewables to shoot forward with aggressive plans (in action) to build domestic supply chains. But the issue is they have no manufacturing outside of that, they are more energy import dependent than China, and franking they are still the r@pe capital of the world, outside cities the people are still very... Traditional. Which doesn't make for great social systems in the current era. But if the renewable push works to build a high tech manufacturing sector, they have the world's best location for cheap renewable energy, and could see very low cost manufacturing between energy and labour cost.
6
@Hession0Drasha Ya and then those colonies leave you and put up tariffs.
6
 @injest1928 While you're correct, particularly in North Africa where Arab and Black african comminies intersect, Islam itself is regularly used as a reason to dehumanize others.
6
@yakov95000 The first part I agree with entirely, although I do blame Israel for the conditions that allowed Iran to create a proxy in Gaza. To the second point that's entirely true. It doesn't really change that it obviously necessitated an Iranian response.
6
@thephoenix215-po2it they still outclass China in building Nuclear Submarines and i would argue in a peer to peer conflict surface vessels have limited use in modern times. But certainly I agree China builds far more ships, naval and conventional. i was just trying to point out there is an industry in existence to grow on, rather than having to start from scratch
5
@dain6250 the irony with your statement (which is largely agreeable to me) is that the area actually under Israeli occupation (west bank) isn't the source of issue, and the area Israel exited to allow an attempt at Palestinian state hood and independence is where the attacks come from.
5
@hmada1222000 you know Israeli jws come from middle easter countries, and the European ones are mainly in New York, right?
5
@SpaceMarine500 both? Both.
4
Idk what it is but something about the presentation seems unpolished.
4
Hey, that was the US' post war Afghanistan plan. Stop ripping off other peoples homework.
4
@007kingifrit times are very different. For one thing, several Arab states recognize Israel (as would any state in the governing council have to be required to). And unlike the 1940s, most of those Arab countries have seen their own Jewish populations leave to Israel, and I truely don't believe they want to take action that would lead to their return. Israel allowed these countries to deal with their own "Jew problems" without taking action. Also, unlike the previous UN mandate, this would be under an Arab controlled coalition.
4
@russellrhoades3044 I have to say, I disagree broadly. Solar prices have dropped to the lowest cost of production, particularly on longer timescales. There is a reason Texas of all places builds enormous amounts. I think they are very likely to pull off the heist. Even outside of economics, they have strong strategic incentives, including the above mentioned impact to North American economies. Belt and road certainly had mixed results, but it's given China enormous influence in Pakistan and Africa. And most of the high-speed rail net work does make a profit, only the long distance lines to very rural areas like Tibet or Xinjiang are lose money, but again that has much more to do with strategic policy. As for the last point I think it's quite difficult to argue China consumes more than it produces.
4
@WinterXR7 The troops to be sent to hold Kursk were already having to hold the Ukrainian boarder. The distance to be defended has not changed, and the topography has been improved. Ukraine doesn't need to semd more troops now that the assult is over and its moving to a defensive mode.
4
@WinterXR7 So to the first poi t we're in complete agreement, obviously the mechanized infantry brigades that led the Kurst assult were not whoever was guarding the border - my point is that now that Ukraine is moving into a defense mode those elite units will be reassigned to return to Pokrovs or a new offensive, and the troops who were previously holding the border will simply move forward to the new defensive lines. Certainly a number of troops were needed for the invasion, but all else being equal the better terrain means fewer units are needed to hold the region than were needed to hold the border. The conscripts captured who will be traded for actual Ukrainian soldiers should also be considered. To your bottom point, I'd suggest it matters very little of the Russians take most of the area leading to Pokrovs this week or in a year. If Trump is elected, a peace deal would almost certainly involve losing Pokrovs regardless, so fighting harder to hold it isn't a gain. If Harris wins, I expect material and political support for Ukraine to be decisive, and while the fighting will enter the city I don't believe Russia will be capable capturing the city. Kurst seems more valuable to in either regard, either as a bargain chip or as a defensive position undermining Putin's authority. I think the most determining factor is whether Ukraine can hold Russia a km or two from Pokrovs until the mud buys time for western equipment amd new troops to arrive and better defensive positions to be built, and also time for the Russian economic and financial position to worsen and public opinion and troop moral to turn. And with the mentioned elite units being pulled out of Kursk to return to defensive actions holding back Russia seems achievable, but the amount of ground lost and the seemingly ineffective Ukrainian fortified positions is disturbing. If Russia makes it into the city before winter it will still take months to capture but but terms are distinctly worse for Ukraine. That said, unless the world is willing to bring nuclear armed russia to the point of a WW1 Germany collapes, Ukraine is forced to take actions which are of greater risk but may offer a winning condition, rather yhan settle for the safer choice and simply lose a year later.
4
@amnont8724 it's not, because the countries you listed aren't actively fighting a war against Ukrainian minorities in their own countries.
3
The alamite issue is tricky. They were often collaborators in an oppressive government. Not that all were. But to you let Bashir supporters who commited crimes walk away or risk over punishment of a group. Even if you strike the perfect balance, you will be accused of both.
3
What does 25 to 13 hundred mean exactly? In regards to Hezbollah's rocket launch rate
3
@shafsteryellow you missed Kenya, but I agree it's a bad neighborhood and I'm not saying a dictatorship would make Somalia better. I am saying Japan and Singapore are basically one party dictatorships, and pretty good though.
3
@Omer1996E.C Yes but capital subsidies are far more effective than tariffs. One means a more competitive market, the other less.
3
Do you here what you're saying? Its like saying a business taking on debt can't invest... thats how they invest.
3
I think we'll see a second strengthing of China as their renewable roll out plateaus and they being exporting massive quantities of Solar and Wind. Cheap Chinese solar will be very powerful across the MENA region and south Asia, and their energy independence will remove a major weakness of the economy.
3
@eca3101 ya it shouldn't be read seriously it ends in "greater Egyptian Military Imperium" lol
3
You can't ship energy across the ocean with batteries, whereas you can put ammonia on a ship in Egypt or Saudi Arabia or South Australia produced with cheap solar, and ship it to Japan. You also can't heat a furnace to 800 degrees with a battery, so hydrogen is the only real alternative to NG unless you want every plant to have a nuclear reactor. If we ever get cheap enough at producing hydrogen, it might displace batteries all together, because China can't control the supply chain and it has a higher energy density.
3
@georgesmith4768 I agree in large part on the first point, and we do have Phosphate batteries already, and Canada has Cobalt as well. But hydrogen would mean an industry China doesn't have a large scale manufacturing and technology lead in, and would remove the need for rare earths and the associated mining the western countries are uncomfortable with. I think industrial heating is more relevant than you realize. The issue with electric furnace is the anodes degrade very quickly. I may be bias toward hydrogen because I've worked in that area, but at least 6 years ago there was no serious scalable electric furnace being proposed outside steel or aluminum recycling. As for the last part, it may simply be cheaper to produce ammonia in Saudi Arabia than solar energy in Germany. The higher resource availability in some regions is a significant discount, particularly if you plan on using some of that energy to create a long term/medium term storage anyway. Additionally, Japan is betting on co-firing Ammonia and coal, and eventually directly in Coal plants, to take advantage of existing infrastructure, and hoping to export that to South Asian countries which also are coal reliant.
3
Biggest thing - Oil and Energy independence. China is pushing hard, very hard, on building out EVs and renewables and making incredible progress. At the same time, they are increasing oil production yearly. I'm Canadian, and I see this in part as an attack on US and Canadian oil production. A sharp decline in prices from loss of Chinese (and US and EU) demand is going to crash the high production cost oil in Canada and the US, and trigger a recession.
3
I agree 3¢ a KW hour is like the low South Korea was approaching. I can only assume it's because they are old plants which have paid down construction like you said.
3
@BhagatSinghRajguruSukhdevFan I don't believe they have a great relationship. They are on opposing sides of regional struggles like Armenia and Syria, Turkey is pro Sunni and Iran is Shia, they compete for control of Iraq and have differing approaches to the Kurds, they are competing for influence and weapon sales in Central Asia.
3
Another long term infrastructure plan Germany should be celebrated is the electric highway. They have thousands of Km of what are basically trolley/street car overhead wires planned aling highways so the Transport Trucks can operate electrically. That would allow not just long distance electric trucking, but allow it with a small battery that only has to cover 50km to the hoghway, where it van charge as you drive, and then power you 50km to a destination.
3
@mehrshadvr4 awe yes, the age old question of the Middle East, do you support Apartheid against Arabs or Apartheid against Women. Personally I think the Ottomans struck the right balance of Apartheid against both; but who hasn't wanted to see their sister or wife stoned to death by public officials for not wearing a scarf. I take no issue with Islam. But Islam teaches that humans were given free will. I have no tolerance for a state that forces its religious moral codes in spite of the will of God. Edit: your reply appears to have been removed, I think because of your edit, because I saw the original in the thread, and only see the edited version as a reply to me. I would be of the opinion this is a gambit of Iran's to put increased public pressure in the region against western aligned governments, an already existing pressure. And I appreciate your frankness on the Baha'i. And I apologize for the snideness of my original remark. I agree with your characterization of Israel as an apartheid state, but disagree strongly that it is therefore the morally worse of the options in the region.
3
@matanelsiboni9269 both states have been fighting a cold war since before I was alive. Acting as though Israel doesn't actively work against Iran is disingenuous. Iran arms proxies who fight against Israel. America arms Ukraine to fight against Russia. But for Russia to attack an American installation would obviously be escalatory.
3
@arthas640 yes, but the Islamic republic was formed a year after the 1978 Israeli incursion and in the same decade as the Yom Kippur war in which Israel seized significant territory from Arab neighbors (who of course started it, but also had not recognized Israel as a state and saw it as a continuation of earlier conflict, and it could be compared to much of the globes continued recognition of Crimea as Ukrainian when it is defacto Russian). Which is to say it's understandable Muslim opinion was against Israel. Personally I think you're being a little to kind in suggesting Iran is kind to Shia Muslims by default. I don't believe the Ayatollah or revolutionary council really cares beyond increasing the scope of its influence, any more than I believe in the Russian Orthodox church. But I agree that as long as Israel and the Saudis, and Turkey, aim to be the Regional power Iran will act with hostility.
3
@AL-lh2ht Arab nationalism and Russian access to cheap gold is a key element to both Sudan and the Sahel coups. I agree the Sudan is an independent conflict, but much like in Mali where the Tuareg separatists were originally trained and operated out of Lybia, the RSF has been heavily impacted by ongoing Lybian civial war as mercenaries. Both conflicts should be seens as the result of the collapse of the Lybian state. The RSF also includes a large number of foreign Tuareg mercenaries from Niger and Mali, as well as Chad and South Sudan. The people in reference are traditionally nomadic and don't necessarily see borders as meaningful. A collapse of the RSF will see these groups returning to other sahel countries where they will likely increase seperatist or rebel activity as they did with the collapses of Lybia.
2
@taxirob2248 last year China built more solar than in use across all of Europe. That's the scale of the manufacturing, that it's grown from almost non-existent to 8% of electrical output in 3 years. They have the manufacturing to produce something like 10% of their entire system capacity, the largest energy user in the world, a year in Solar panels. I could not care less about China burning coal today or next year. What I care about is that a third of vehicles sold in China last year were EVs. They haven't done all this as some Psych op. It's literally meant to be the foundation of their economy for the next 30 years. They are absolutely buying enormous quantities of renewables and Electric vehicles. They're doing it because they are afraid of being dependent on energy imports (and only have 30 years of coal reserves), because they want to be the energy exporter, and because collapsing oil demand will destroy American Fracking and Canadian oil sands Mining. And I care because while it will put the US in recession, it's going to send Canada into an absolute depression. Also, a great deal of the hydroelectric growth has been pumped storage to store energy from renewables.
2
@aachoocrony5754 bra you've made like a dozen comments all seem to be trolling. I'll take you seriously for one reply but not if you repeat. What are you trying to say? That China won't have an loss of growth? I think given the reigning in of both local government debt and construction debt, the two engines of China, it's very unlikely there isn't at least a technical recession. Frankly, I think it's being well handled and I have a lot of respect for CCP economic policy. I don't think the average person will see loss of quality of life. But the upper middle class and upper class will and are certainly seeing a loss of wealth. Suggesting growth is going to continue as the government actively reigns it in on one hand and the west cuts investment and imports on the other is ideological at best imo.
2
@aachoocrony5754 not sure how rising housing prices make me poorer there chief since I own a house. China owned something like 4% of US debt at peak and it's now something like 2% so I think you're flexing a little to hard. Certainly agree the US became reliant on China in the 2000s via trade but now the US has the IRA and China can't get microchips. What's with all the elephants and Pluto's? is that like a Chinese proverb?
2
25 to 30 hundred makes more sense to me, although I think this could have been phrased better.
2
@TimJBenham jesus
2
With a few small Changes I think China's system could constitute a democracy, if of a different form, and I agree with your point
2
@Dman6779 lol this has nothing with a "petrodollar" it wouldn't matter if we used clam shells as currency, the issue is the US and Canada rely heavily on petroleum exports, and China as the world's largest importer as the dual incentive of cutting demand to improve its trade position and push North America into recession. The price of oil has to do with the profitability of producing it, and shale fracking and oil sands mining isn't cheap. Low oil prices bother the Saudis and Russians but they kill us. I'm not clear where your rant is going at the end. Yes we need to move off oil. We don't need to see the North American industry collapse while low prices push the rest of the world to use more and us to import it. If you want to reduce oil use, you want high prices.
2
@Dman6779 I'm going to start by saying Ukrainian bombing of Russian refineries doesn't really impact US oil prices, Biden is more concerned about the appearance as he goes into an election, and of trying to lower global inflation and global oil prices, both to lower the cost of imports and bring supply chain inflation down, and to maintain European support. To your TL;DR, I agree completely, losing energy security is exactly what I'm afraid of, I don't want a crash in prices destroying the North American Oil industries and making us reliant on imports of both oil and Chinese renewables. oil has a massive effect on the economy because it fuels cars and transport, Petro chemicals in the North East and Gulf coast, is a major part of the economy in the South west, and represents 15% of US exports and is a major component to the balance of trade. In Canada it's not only 15% of exports, Alberta is also the region with the highest per capita incomes, and many of those jobs are oil sands related. Our progressive tax system will mean that a very large drop in income tax revenue is at stake, along with a large portion of Albertas government royalties, and Federal revenue for oil. Oil sands mining, where a lot of the good blue collar jobs are focused, is a very regional affair focused in fort McMurray, and those Mining jobs won't survive a year of low prices. So you're looking at a sizable city in complete collapse, a provincial depression as 10s of thousands of the provinces highest earners going on Unemployment and oil taxes disappear, and a national depression as a dollar weaken with our balance of trade, banks (particularly RBC) see massive losses, our precarious property market dies, and our Stock market crashes. But I see what you are saying, and I would like to see a smart wind down of the oil industry toward geothermal (Eavor is a promising company) with fracking and SAGD oil sands in particular being technologies well suited to have investment redirected to digging wells and pumping hot fluid. I'm Canadian, and I really want to see more material manufacturering with bitumen production to diversify the oil sands industry itself. Bitumen has an advantage in producing Carbon Fiber, and I would like to see Alberta become a major producer on the global market. I'd also like to see the NG industry refocus toward hydrogen production, although generally I support the LNG operations in the US Gulf (although Canadian LNG is largely DOA). And of course greater diversity of industry in general in building solar and wind and EVs, and in Canada in particular Mining material for supply chains. But that doesn't just happen. It certainly doesn't happen if the industry collapses and government revenues collapse. You need to develop technologies, build infrastructure, attact or invest in manufacturing. I think this is very urgent, but the times lines to open a mine are still a decade. And China isn't cutting its oil demand because it's worried about climate change, it's trying to beat us in a race that will decide where energy comes from. I'd also like to see a Pipeline Called eagle spirit built to bring another Mbbl/d to the Pacific, although I'm against DilBit exports on the North coast, but I'd like to see a large 100kbbl/d asphalt plant, a 200kbbl/d Diesel specific plant, a 300kbbl/d refinery tuned to Californian standards and that can supply Jet fuel to Vancouver, and a 400kbbl/d partial upgrade to sell a Heavy Syncrude to Asia/California. Which maybe you're not going to love, but right now 90% of our exports go to Chicago, and I'd like to see that getting a better price.
2
Unironically Biden is one of the best Presidents in History and certainly the best is Decades, and this is the main reason. Under his tenure the US has returned to an economic power. It's a shame the next president will get the credit for his national success while he takes the blame for Global issues.
2
When the new leaders name translates roughly to take back the Golan Heights, you have to wonder what will happen with isreal
2
@kevChess it's certainly more than "that difficult".
2
@thanksskeletor4812 I'll need to confirm this
2
@BlackWolf9988 But its not a new front line, by invading Kehrson Russia had already forced Ukraine to treat the entire border as avtive and deploy troops.
2
Since we're talking about Energy in Germany, I want to remind/explain to everyone that LNG from Canada was never an option for Germany. LNG has seen enormous growth, both on supply and demand, with Germany (and Europe, but most Germany) obviously needing alternatives to Russian gas in 2022. Regularly you hear that Canada (or the Trudeau government) refused to provide any., maybe for environmental reasons But look where supply comes from. Qatar, where the Gas feild is among the worlds cheapest and colocated with the export terminals. The US, where PNG comes from gas co-produced in the Permean basis in Texas, attached to the Gulf coast by an existing pipeline network, and in many cases repurposing LNG import terminals built before the Fracking boom. Canada was never going to build a cross continent pipeline with a from scratch export terminal on the east coast. It simply can't be done in the market. LNG prices before 2020 were break even low, ans while 2022 saw a massive price spike, low prices are already back. Germany and Europe never desired any long term contracts. They signed a few, but the US ones all allow cancellation, and signing some weakened the desire for any others, because they are betting on Hydrogen. Short of Canada using tax payer money to subsidize European consumers, or calling it NATO military spemding based on Energy security, this was never a real option.
2
@herdimmunity2507 I would agree with both points; the propaganda available and direction they would prefer for Syria.
2
You didn't need the AI, and "Automation" was sufficient 100 years ago.
2
@matanelsiboni9269 it wouldn't have been Iranian soil even if it was the embassy. That's not actually how most embassies work. Also, Iran doesn't recognize any of it as Israeli soil. This is all pretty meaningless. The point is Israel attacked Iranian assets, Iran responded with a broadly telegraphed show of power. Obviously no one felt this was a true attack against Israel, which is why the Israeli response was de-escalatory.
2
@AL-lh2ht My apologies, I don't think I understand you civil war comment.
1
@2drealms196 I agree with all this. Again China certainly has issues. And as those prices come down I expect a technical recession and loss of wealth among the middle class. But a Great Depression level slow down is not something I expect
1
First?
1
@moritamikamikara3879 South Africa had them so that white Minority government could threaten African countries from trying to invade in support of the black population. The invasion never came, but they only got rid of nukes when getting rid of the White government, so the transfer of power the nukes were meant to prevent did occur.
1
 @blue-pi2kt I disagree, it is the best available technology for energy transportation and for high temperature industrial processes.
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The good news is South Australia has a large Green Hydrogen plant, Canada has several, built for Germany, being constructed on the East coast to export ammonia, and the US has 7 hydrogen Hubs being developed.
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@blue-pi2kt it isn't abandoned in space flight? The SLS is Hydrogen fueled, if stupid overall. Japan has hydrogen rockets, the H3. China's largest rocket, the Long March 5 is hydrogen powered. Vulcan uses a hydrogen upper stage. Arianna rockets in Europe use Hydrogen. Skylon is designed to be hydrogen powered. I think you're literally just looking at SpaceX lol. And I'm not saying they aren't going to win the space race. But that has more to do with building a simple engine. And when we get to the moon hydrogen will be right back on the menu. You ship it as ammonia btw.
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Na, Iran is pretty clearly trying to show power without actually getting involved in a conflict. They could have fired repeated waves or targeted population centers. Or not informed the US prior to the attack.
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@yidavv ya but how many is that per day? 2,500 to 1,300?
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This is true.
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@DBLt4p I certainly agree that any blanket statement is never entirely true. And i would agree tariffs have a purpose, but I would suggest they are more valuable in a putative role than as economic policy. A tariff is equivalent to putting international sanctions on you're own country, they protect local industry by eliminating competition and lead to long term stagnation, and they invite foreign countries to put up tariffs in response. The Smoot Hawley tariffs were a key factor in causing both the great depression and the Pacific theater of WW2. Good industrial policy is based on building local value chains that create expertise and provide competitive advantage internationally. Look at Japan or Germany, you want your cars to win in other markets, not be protected in your own. Part of that is building infrastructure in a deliberate manner, and part is making policy that encourages industry to believe investment will be profitable. That's not to say all capital subsidies are best practices. You don't generally want to be picking particular projects, and things like corporate tax deductions don't generally align with real investment. Likewise blanket, fixed dollar tariffs are not as useful as percentage based tariffs on select goods with alternative suppliers and often which are important exports to the targetted country. Overall I would stand by the statement capital subsidies are better economic policy than tariffs, and do a better job at pulling international best practices and technology rather than encouraging the continuous use of older strategys and equipment that can't survive in global competition.
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@KathyXie only the French in the north though. The French in the south were still just french collaborators /s
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Are there cars in the background of the giy inventing the forst car?
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I'm waiting for the Economic and political situation in Egypt to become unstable enough that Egypt either revolts to Muslim brotherhood rule, and launches out on Jihad supporting Hamas to the North, the RSF to the south, the GNA in Lybia to the West and the many islamic groups in the Sahel or the Muslim brotherhood related pressure causes the military to support secular military dictatorships across the same countries and weaken Islamic influence while using the conflict to relave national tensions. In either case if egypt enters Sudan, I wouldn't be suprised to see it backing rebel groups in Ethiopia to ensure control over the length of the Nile. I look forward to the Greater Egyptian Military Imperium and seeing the majority of the Sahara and Sahel under a single entity.
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@everwinter0 the defects associated with an aircraft carrier are a lot more complex than an oil tanker; one has to float, the other has to float while being bombarded with anti ship missiles and launching aircraft. Again I'm not glorifying the US ship industry. I'm just saying that if it was desired, the US isn't building an industry from scratch, there are supply lines and dock yards and skilled labor to build off.
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@oakhauser Noah was kinda like "what de fuk". He just got to live.
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If an Arab Nationalist group like Muslim Brotherhood takes control, I'm calling an alignment with the Rapid Reaction force in Sudan and the Arab governments across the Sahel for the creation of The Greater Egyptian Military Imperium.
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Speaking of Ammonia, there is a Danish company which has produced an electrolysis cell which uses less energy in KW than a state of the art NG to ammonia plant uses in KW (electrical amd thermal) to produce ammonia while producing oxygen. Very interesting
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Egypt needs to sign a deal with China (I only say because they currently have the largest manufacturering base actively look to export in infrastructure programs) to aggressively build out Solar. In recent years they have completely stopped LNG exports, and they struggle with NG supply causing power outages. Large scale solar build out would not only provide power, but in Egypt it would provide reliable daily output given the near equatorial position and limited cloud cover. It provides that power for 12 hours a day, and during the hottest part of the day when Air Conditioning is driving the highest demand. And at night, the NG infrastructure already exists. The solar would provide low and long term fixed cost power, and stretch the NG supply to allow exports of LNG to return and stable overnight output. Solar could also be placed in the Red Sea foot hills to Agrovolactics, and over canals or floating on Lake Nasser (which China in particular has experience with) to reduce water loss.
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@seventyfive7597 Egypt and Israel had just joined an agreement to develop the Gaza Marine feild, that is what I'm referencing. I'm not referring to safety concerns in Egypt as new, the tourism comment was Covid related. I am referring to the surrounding conflicts as hurting trade and foreign investment, as well as creating refugee issues.
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@Mark-uh3un ya ya, what we learned from China is that good happy peaceful democracies decided how many children you have and those policies never destroy your economy in a few decades.
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@seventyfive7597 again, in referencing the Gaza Marine fields Egypt was expecting to begin development on.
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@m.streicher8286 well, it is when the flooding that makes it productive is at risk because Ethiopia built a dam.
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 @aamiradam5879 This is correct, the issue in North Africa is Arab nationalism under the guise of islam
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@nisrmasry2134 unlike you and your whataboutism, I wasn't comparing anything, I was talking about Sudan. And frankly the only only difference here is Arab expansion didn't spread new diseases.
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@Black_Sun_Dark_Star China only owns like 2%, maybe another percent secretly in the Bahamas. Japan is something like 5%. I mean it's still a lot of money but I wouldn't say much of it.
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What do you think "for show" means? Like is you interpretation they wanted to awe at the fire works?
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@hmada1222000 you know most Jews in Israel originated in middle Eastern Arab countries, right? Most of the European Jews are in New York.
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@hmada1222000 you know most of the Jews in Israel originated in middle Eastern countries, right? Most of the European Jews are in New York.
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@nicholasjohnson778 well be fair, something like 60% of Gaza is under the age of 18. You find me a population of peaceful teenagers living in abject poverty with a finger to point blame at. Teenagers are angsty, angry, and suicidal at the best of times.
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@nicholasjohnson778 your stance just shifter from "show me the good Palestinians" to "all Palestinians are rapists and murders". You asked how people can support Hamas, I'm saying 60% of those people are at an age where they at the age American kids shoot up schools.
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@WinterXR7 @winterinvicta @winterinvicta I agree that the political situation isn't likely to lead to a coup or force Putin out of the war, but it may lead to peace settlements with more reasonable terms from Ukrainian perspectives. A lot has occured there, while a small fraction of Russian land, until this point the only thing keeping Ukraine out was the prestige of Russia, that is a loss people feel, particularly with a hundred thousand refugees spreading word in the country. Conscripts are in the conflict and taken as POWs in camps Russia paints as Nazi adjacent, until now the core areas of Russia haven't been dealing with the actual conflict, now its visible. Inflation has been very high for some time, now Kursk farmers can't collect thier wheat harvest, and gasoline supplies are constantly at target, which are quite significant costs the lower income. All that is to say that until recently, what has been a foreign conflict in Russia has become a domestic one, which politically is very different. to the second point, the particular units in question are drone operaters I believe, so it doesn't suprise me they are less effective in urban combat. But they will slow the advance to the city, and protect the flanks while other infantry units perform the urban combat. The dightiin Bakhmut obviously was extensive. To the economy, as you point out the ruble is weak, but more over the Ukrainian campaign against oil infrastructure only started 6 months ago. Kursk wheat won't be available, but not only that, diesel is going to be a in competition between farmers and the military in a few weeks. Europe has only recently banned un insured ships from their waters, which is meant to push out black fleet ships from the Baltic sea, a major oil shipment terminal. Inflation has been rising, and is being pressed by both a shorage of goods, and army contracts bidding out the labour supply, an issue only worsening. And Russian foreign currency reserves are almost entirely depleted, with the oil fund now mainly holding infrastructure bonds. The Russian financial position has continually worsen, amd while I'm not suggesting an immediate collapse, I would say stalling several months due to mud is harder on Russia than Ukraine. Also, maybe you mean to claim the GDP PPP growth has been higher in Russia than Germany (which is, frankly, a terribly afflicted economy having taken the brunt of anti Russian economic fall out), but I struggle to believe numbers showing a higher standard of living in Russia than Germany. And I would point out that growth in Russian GDP is driven by defense sector spending, which is dubious in its value should the war come to an end. To your last point, I'd suggest the very thing Ukraine wants is a counter attack in Kursk. Images of Russia flattening Russian towns with Artillery and hundreds of conscripts out of Moscow and Saint Petersburg dying or being maimed daily, or else a weakening of Russian forces elsewhere, are both wins for Ukraine.
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What's never mentioned is the students in Tiananmen square were hard core communists against market reforms.
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Idk why my comment didn't post, but it's never mentioned the students killed in the square were actually hard line communists against market reforms. The US has killed a few communists to.
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@DollyRanch and I expect the practice to expand
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@mathewferstl7042 I do, and Germany has great trains. Unfortunately, not everything is a train. Sometimes innovation is actually good.
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@Connor_Roush okay, but the US has been self sufficient in food for... decades? Ever? I'm not saying it doesn't work I'm just saying it isn't needed.
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@Connor_Roush as long as we stress the term "sufficient" and aren't bucking all global trade I agree, or at least NAFTA should be. But my point isn't against self sufficiency, my point is AI doesn't change to equation and "automation" is vauge but the automation needed has been in use since your parents were born.
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@mehrshadvr4 which must be why Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt and unilaterally pulled out of Gaza. It's goal of expansion was clearly met by giving up control of half the territory under its control and control over the Suez. Frankly the only time Israel can be accused of expansive behavior is it's foundation. The start of the War in Gaza was largely an (currently successful) attempt to prevent an Israeli peace agreement with the Saudis. I have seen no evidence that Israel has any goal of territorial expansion beyond actions like the Golan Heights to secure it's defense from actively hostile neighbors. Also saying the attack was preemptive and therefore the other side started the war is absurd, and frankly the same argument would avail Israel of all responsibility for really any of its actions.
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@mehrshadvr4 your reply appears to have been removed, I think because of your edit, because I saw the original in the thread, and only see the edited version as a reply to me. I would be of the opinion this is a gambit of Iran's to put increased public pressure in the region against western aligned governments, an already existing pressure. And I appreciate your frankness on the Baha'i.
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@harlowida kinda a moot point but I think the Navajo have a support group you could join.
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