Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "Ukraine Fortifies Kursk Gains As Russia Goes After Pokrovsk" video.
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@WinterXR7 So to the first poi t we're in complete agreement, obviously the mechanized infantry brigades that led the Kurst assult were not whoever was guarding the border - my point is that now that Ukraine is moving into a defense mode those elite units will be reassigned to return to Pokrovs or a new offensive, and the troops who were previously holding the border will simply move forward to the new defensive lines. Certainly a number of troops were needed for the invasion, but all else being equal the better terrain means fewer units are needed to hold the region than were needed to hold the border. The conscripts captured who will be traded for actual Ukrainian soldiers should also be considered.
To your bottom point, I'd suggest it matters very little of the Russians take most of the area leading to Pokrovs this week or in a year. If Trump is elected, a peace deal would almost certainly involve losing Pokrovs regardless, so fighting harder to hold it isn't a gain. If Harris wins, I expect material and political support for Ukraine to be decisive, and while the fighting will enter the city I don't believe Russia will be capable capturing the city. Kurst seems more valuable to in either regard, either as a bargain chip or as a defensive position undermining Putin's authority.
I think the most determining factor is whether Ukraine can hold Russia a km or two from Pokrovs until the mud buys time for western equipment amd new troops to arrive and better defensive positions to be built, and also time for the Russian economic and financial position to worsen and public opinion and troop moral to turn. And with the mentioned elite units being pulled out of Kursk to return to defensive actions holding back Russia seems achievable, but the amount of ground lost and the seemingly ineffective Ukrainian fortified positions is disturbing. If Russia makes it into the city before winter it will still take months to capture but but terms are distinctly worse for Ukraine.
That said, unless the world is willing to bring nuclear armed russia to the point of a WW1 Germany collapes, Ukraine is forced to take actions which are of greater risk but may offer a winning condition, rather yhan settle for the safer choice and simply lose a year later.
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@WinterXR7 @winterinvicta @winterinvicta I agree that the political situation isn't likely to lead to a coup or force Putin out of the war, but it may lead to peace settlements with more reasonable terms from Ukrainian perspectives. A lot has occured there, while a small fraction of Russian land, until this point the only thing keeping Ukraine out was the prestige of Russia, that is a loss people feel, particularly with a hundred thousand refugees spreading word in the country. Conscripts are in the conflict and taken as POWs in camps Russia paints as Nazi adjacent, until now the core areas of Russia haven't been dealing with the actual conflict, now its visible. Inflation has been very high for some time, now Kursk farmers can't collect thier wheat harvest, and gasoline supplies are constantly at target, which are quite significant costs the lower income. All that is to say that until recently, what has been a foreign conflict in Russia has become a domestic one, which politically is very different.
to the second point, the particular units in question are drone operaters I believe, so it doesn't suprise me they are less effective in urban combat. But they will slow the advance to the city, and protect the flanks while other infantry units perform the urban combat. The dightiin Bakhmut obviously was extensive.
To the economy, as you point out the ruble is weak, but more over the Ukrainian campaign against oil infrastructure only started 6 months ago. Kursk wheat won't be available, but not only that, diesel is going to be a in competition between farmers and the military in a few weeks. Europe has only recently banned un insured ships from their waters, which is meant to push out black fleet ships from the Baltic sea, a major oil shipment terminal. Inflation has been rising, and is being pressed by both a shorage of goods, and army contracts bidding out the labour supply, an issue only worsening. And Russian foreign currency reserves are almost entirely depleted, with the oil fund now mainly holding infrastructure bonds. The Russian financial position has continually worsen, amd while I'm not suggesting an immediate collapse, I would say stalling several months due to mud is harder on Russia than Ukraine. Also, maybe you mean to claim the GDP PPP growth has been higher in Russia than Germany (which is, frankly, a terribly afflicted economy having taken the brunt of anti Russian economic fall out), but I struggle to believe numbers showing a higher standard of living in Russia than Germany. And I would point out that growth in Russian GDP is driven by defense sector spending, which is dubious in its value should the war come to an end.
To your last point, I'd suggest the very thing Ukraine wants is a counter attack in Kursk. Images of Russia flattening Russian towns with Artillery and hundreds of conscripts out of Moscow and Saint Petersburg dying or being maimed daily, or else a weakening of Russian forces elsewhere, are both wins for Ukraine.
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