Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "This Is Why the U.S. Can’t Use the Oil It Produces" video.

@anthonyk423 No, most of the refineries are built for heavy, as can be exemplified by the big uptake of Canadian DilBit now that Transmountan is open. California (particularly in the south near LA) has always been a heavier crude. The higher price has more to do with California having very specific fuel emissions standards that only refineries in California and Washington can meet, Californian refineries being older than average, the Rocky mountains cutting off California from the rest of the countries oil infrastructure making shipping more expensive, and consumer taxes in the state.
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I agree; although I would suggest this means securing greater access to Canadian crude (which is inexpensive, has long term reserves, and matches existing refinery needs, along with being protected by NAFTA). Shale oil reserves are limited and high quality reserves are largely depleted. Bakken and Eagle Ford both are declining, and Permian appears to be also. Investment is bone dry. Trying to rebuild the industry around a short term and unideal resource would be a waste.
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@edwxx20001 I disagree, cutting oil exports would just put shale oil offline. Shale oil is the most expensive producer, and you would force it to compete in a market it does not match the specification off. It needs the higher price of international oil, existing US refineries are using as much of the super light or ultra light oil they can handle, and they won't be able to retool
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@shupichii9647 not just because the US was import dependent, but also because the domestic supply was getting increasingly heavy. California for example produces very heavy sour crude.
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@Blackpilld Oil prices have no real impact on US foreign policy. Not because of shale oil, but because half of imports come from Canada, which has no alternative market because of pipelines and which cannot reduce oil exports since NAFTA. The remainer being Mexican and Venezuelan crude which is to heavy for most global refineries and has a huge cost advantage to ship to the US. The issue with high oil prices globally is the impact on Europe and Asia and the effect of driving higher input costs of imports. And again, Shale oil plays are dropping in productivity. Bakken and Eagle Ford have already passed their peak output. The issue with shale oil is the first few wells are highly prolific, but after that each new well has declining output, and you need to drill new wells constantly due to short life cycles. You're advocating for the US to only use the most expensive oil and build it's infrastructure around a resource industry doesn't expect to exist in quantity in a decade. Which is why no large refinery has been built in decades. All the whole giving up lucrative exports.
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@SirMegaManNeoX why would you want to pay more for gas?
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Only in the sense that building a new series of refineries and shutting down current ones is to expensive to justify. But the refineries lose money/gas prices go up if you try to use the super light oil from the Permean.
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@SirMegaManNeoX even in the long run, you've just invested in rebuilding the refineries so you could ship Venezuelan and Mexican oil across an ocean instead of the Texan oil. I doubt you'll see all that much improvement in shipping efficiency overall.
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Technologies might include replacing Diesel with wet CNG in fracking, combining oil production with Geo Thermal power generation, and deeper drilling.
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@SirMegaManNeoX no it wouldn't. No part of rebuilding all the refineries, cutting the country off from cheaper oil, and making it reliant on the most expensive oil is going to bring costs down. Particularly while seeing declining production rates in the 3 major shale oil formations, and given the low ratio of diesel to gasoline, and high diesel requirements, shale oil alone doesn't fit the American market well.
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Why do you want to stop exporting food to the Saudis?
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@jeffnewell1211 probably camel feed in this case. Colorado definitely needs to figure out it's water, but worth remembering alfalfa is all good for the soil, creates a bumper stock for farmers, and reduces fertilizer use.
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Actually the exact opposite. Partially anyway.
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@bobcat8439 Obama is the entire reason shale oil exists and US oil production hit its highest ever under Biden.
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@billmoretz8718 the issue is that industry sees no market for this, US gasoline demand is decreasing, and at the same time the shale oil plays are seeing lower productivity and declining output in 2 of 3. So the objective is to build refineries to produce a product you don't need using an input that may not be available in a decade. The very light crude makes it more valuable for international refineries to use to balance the heavier than design spec oil available on the market, in comparison to investing in capital that will over supply the market.
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@classesanytime Canada's preference doesn't matter, they have only limited pipeline capacity to the Pacific, the vast majority of Canadian pipelines go south, and even much of the oil to the Pacific feeds Washington and California. And since NAFTA, Canada Can't redirect that oil. . The EU may be broken up, or may form a single federation, with the UK gone I think the later is much more likely. I don't believe the US is in a decline.
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@berardoferrari Thats true of both actual crude oil in Saskatchewan and Alberta where the S in CHOPS (the method used) standa for sand, and of Bitumen in the oil Sands. Never the less, Canadian oil has a very low levelized cost of Production, particularly bitumen produced in situ in the oil sands. Investment and upfront costs are high leading to low investment outside of high price periods as Oil Companies generally want a fast return on investment, but the life cycle costs are very low because unlike a standard oil well which may only have a few years of high production, SAGD operations last decades with little reinvestment and no declining slope in production. edit: You understand Trump wants yo build the KeyStone XL pipeline to supply the Gulf of texas states need for heavy oil, ya? Because its the cheapest oil available, even with a continent spanning pipeline.
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