Comments by "Major Moolah" (@majormoolah5056) on "Xi plays peace broker | Quick Take | GZERO Media" video.

  1. - Europe wants a stable post-war Ukraine over a total military victory. There have been reports of political instability in Ukraine and their economy is of course in shambles. The sooner the peace process begins, the sooner the refugees can start moving back and the cheaper the reconstruction will be. - USA paid for this war so they in essence own the outcome. Biden said many times he wants Ukraine to take back all their territory and that the whole "rules-based order" hinges on this war. Turns out this was a bad strategy. - Ukraine made the future offensive into a media event over the last 8 months or so. They did it to get more material support from the west. In the process, this offensive is not only heavily telegraphed, it is basically a huge political event as well. - Russia has of course been planning for this offensive for a long time now. Both armies have been trying to cause attrition to one another in preparation. Ukraine air defences in particular have suffered. - If Ukraine manages to take back a city, let us say Melitopol, that will of course be a big thing. But it will cost them dearly regardless. Russians can still put on a credible defence. So after the offensive, there will be another long period of grind and Ukraine will then want more materiel for the next offensive 6-8 months after this one. The Americans in particular are not going to pay. The Europeans theoretically might give enough to keep Ukraine in the defensive game. But I doubt that as well. - There were some voices after the two great victories that said that the negotiations need to happen now. Mark Milley and Emmanuel Macron in particular. But there was so much backlash amid the euphoria, that it went nowhere. In retrospect, we should have heard the message from Biden. - Putin is happy to make peace if he gets to keep his territory and also give credit of the peace deal over to China... because that undermines USA. - Going back to Macron... he had a phone call with Biden before and after his three-day meeting with Xi. After his controversial message, John Kirby was asked to respond and he only praised the bilateral relationship with France and all the security cooperation they make. There was no public backlash against Macron from any political leaders. It was all in the media and academia. Clearly there is something here. If you look at the diplomatic networks France has in the world, it is clear they are a player. They have the second largest amount of diplomats and they are heavily involved in just about all the international organisations out there. I have read some interesting essays on great power competition. Because the American slice of the pie is smaller in relation to others, we will see a rise of the middle level players. France might overreach and collapse, but they are not to be ignored as Americans tend to do. - If it really turns out that American and NATO support does not win the war and China can come in to make peace, it will change the balance in European security. American security guarantees are not as absolute as they were in 1995. Europe wants to have a relationship with China for commercial reasons but for the Russian card as well. And of course Europeans will finally have to take their own security more seriously. We will also have to see how this peace scenario plays into the 2024 elections. American voters only care about foreign policy when it fails.
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