Youtube hearted comments of Andrew Sarantakes (@andrewsarantakes639).
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Thanks for your very fair & diligent efforts to frame a very difficult aspect of international relations. As the baby boomer generation in the United States ages away, the contentious paradigm of "Vietnam War Syndrom" has moved into political obscurity in the American body politic. As Vietnam War veterans, both Senators McCain & Kerry's efforts to normalize relations with Vietnam helped bury to political ghosts of that era in the US.
As an American, I can say, culturally, the bitter divide in society over "Vietnam" is gone. Most people in the US arent even aware the Cold War and the war in Vietnam as a subset of the bi-polar world conflict. However, I am not sure how the people of Vietnam see the legacy of that conflict. But it seems despite Clinton, Bush, Obama & even Trump efforts to have positive engagement with Vietnam, it seems that Vietnam works to be publicly engaging with the US, but the historical/cultural/political scars are too deep there for them to fully partner with the US against the PRC as Japan does.
Excellent content as always
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Excellent analysis! It is truly a pandora's box. Putin politically will not accept a defeat in Ukraine in any way, and now since the annexation of Ukrainian territory, he most likely for domestic political reasons, has intentionally painted Russia into a corner so victory is assured. From a Conventional conflict perspective, Putin know he can win an attritional war with Ukraine and he most likely believes time will cause European/NATO's resolve to collapse. Ukraine can not win a war of attrition, and bluntly Putin knows no NATO country has the political will to directly engage him militarily. Simply put Putin WILL use battlefield tactical nuclear weapons if needed, thus he wins; but he is playing a long game conventionally, which he knows he will win.
Mass media or political actors around the world focusing on Russian Tactical or Operational set backs is quite foolish. This is a Strategic conflict. And Strategically Russia has the capability, and more importantly, the political will to win. In the 1940s small little Germany easily, at theTactical & Operational level, defeated the Red Army twicein two years, but Russia (Soviet Union) fought a Strategic & attritional conflict, and won. The Russian way of war is the use of Attrition and Mass. A Ukrainian opertional gain is good for short term political optics, but the Mass of Russia's capability has not yet been shown.
Thanks again for your excellent assessment of issues involving nations & politics. Amazing work and keep up your efforts to articulate facts about situations in a true academic way.
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@JamesKerLindsayΒ
The situation is tragic, and the lessons of 1938 are clear, aggression unchecked leads to more aggression. That is the fear we all know that with Russia seen as the winner in this conflict, will turn international politics upside down, with interstate conflicts rising again to be the norm. We all dont want that to be the outcome, but deterrance was ambiguous, thus the conflict happened.
I was a career professional soldier, and the hard cold military assessment is that given the attritional nature the conflict has become, the weight of demographic numbers make it impossible for Ukrine to accomplish its political goals through military means. The historical analog is just like when the German army threw itself against robust prepared defenses at the Battle of Kursk in 1943, the ability to win the operation victory was impossible and the strategic outcome was obvious.
It is shocking and sad to see that only a few NATO nations see the reality of Russian aggression with Poland & the tiny Baltic republics taking the situation seriously.
Poland for example has aggressively moved to 4% of GDP spending on defense, while other NATO nations seem to see the "situation in Ukrine as manageable", which is dangerous. But the seemingly addiction to the post Cold War Peace Dividend in Europe is not reality now, and without creating solid deterrance, more conflicts will occur.
The shocking realities of Ukrainian losses have been extremely well hidden, but the level of losses are shocking. Given the lack in the ability of the Ukrainians to execute operational art to achieve decisive results on the battlefield, the Russians have the advantage.
The situation is beyond tragic, but political failures happened. At this point the way to decisively prevent more future conflicts is to fall back onto the Cold War paradigm of robust deterrance. In jest we can say "West Germany from 1987 called me and said deterrance works". Poland today is effectively applying this strategy & it will prove to be successful.
The financial cost of deterrance is not cheap, but compared to the costs in blood & treasure in a conflict, investing in robust deterrance has historically proven to be successful as well as financial cheaper.
We all want the same outcome, but this conflict is appalling & sickening to me in levels I feel I can't express in words. A good commander has wisdom and understands the realities of his limitations. The outcome is horrible, but to me, the military realities of the situation are clear.
As always, thanks for providing a platform for positive dialog.
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James I am shocked to see as you said the low views on this topic, when this should be the topic of highest interests.
Bottom line is that this war is going to end, and to create the conditions of success for reconstruction must be discussed. The EU is the only body/nation which has not been a participant in the historical events in Holy Land since the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in 1918 & the establishment of Isreal in 1948. The example we have historically is Germany, which was successfully rebuilt post 1945. The scale of destruction of Germany in 1945 is beyond compassion to the small geograpic enclave of Gaza, so it is in scope of the possible for the EU to accomplish this critical task. The EU as an impartial body can successfully set the conditions of success. In regard to this difficult conflict, "good fences make good neighbors" and the EU can give the people of Gaza a way forward to success. The US, UN, Isreal & Arab nations all have too much "baggage" in this region, so for a highest chance of success the EU is the only choice, any other will be more of the same.
Warfare, despite its brutality, is a tool of statecraft and from a realist perspective through a lens of Clauswitz, "war is politics in a different form." As stated previously, this war is going to end, and a successful reconstruction effort will prevent yet another flaring up of violence in the future.
It is best to work to solve this "political issue" after the kinetics have ceased through an impartial body working to eliminate theological influences which are constantly present. And the political tools the EU can bring to bear in a reconstruction environment can be a pathway to success. Thanks for presenting this vital topic in the podcast.
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