Comments by "TheRezro" (@TheRezro) on "VisualPolitik EN"
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In short: Ukraine started with around 200k man, most of that was ground forces as they don't really have navy and only limited defensive airforces. Russia has 1 milion army... on paper. In many cases those were literal paper soldiers who never exist with they salaries going on colonel Dacha. From that only 1/4 is ground force, as Russia has large navy, huge humber of aircrafts, rail force, strategic forces, military police, etc. So from beginning of the war number of deployed soldiers was inefficient (150k initial forces, plus 50-100k of military police and separatists, who could not exactly fight). But it was compensated with large number of tanks and artillery. For reminder attacker should have 3 to 1 advantage at least. After war started Ukraine make general mobilization and raised up to 1 milion soldiers. From that around 300k is on the front, rest is training and rotating. Problem is lack of equipment what need to be restored, trained and delivered. Russia didn't mobilize and struggle to keep they numbers. Relying on mercenaries like SS Wagner and forced Ukrainian conscripts. They do not train or rotate they forces and not even provide them basic healthcare. As such Russia sustain massive attrition in both man and hardware (130-190k dead depending on the source). Mobilization helped them stabilize battlefield, but Russia struggle to maintain 300k forces on battlefield. They finally did train some number of mobilized, for few months, but it is not expected to be more then 100-200k people. So yes. They can double they forces, but would it matter? Probably not. But it is still open game. Ukrainians seams to intentionally allow Russia to lost people in pointless attacks on reinforced position. But we would not know in the end. Statistically, Russia lossless more, more resist to admit defeat. But Russia has huge capacity for ignoring the losses.
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Scenario 1:
After initial shock, French remind Russia that they also have nukes. While China remind Putin that they also would retaliate in such case. Poles are shocked that they weren't target of Russian nukes and then with Finland attack Kaliningrad and Belarus, with European part of NATO bombing Russia to the ruble. Chinese are pissed that Russia blow up they plan to attack wakened US simultaneously and move to plan B, sizing Amur. Putin kill himself in his bunker and Russia sign peace with NATO, to focus on defending Siberia.
Scenario 2:
The same, but it make more sense as Suvalki gap is Russia's weak spot. As they must capture it to prevent siege of Kaliningrad. Safe to assume that Russia attack Estonia first, hoping for lack of response. And then attempt to counterattack Poles, before they restore Prussia. Russia do not actually have resources to open other fronts. What BTW would be something what NATO would see month in advance. Unlike cowardly MAGA, Europe know how to fight.
Scenario 3:
Hybrid War is a cope. It only work when enemy do not expect it. We basically already have hybrid war.
Scenario 4:
The most likely one. After Trump leave NATO. China attack Taiwan, what they plan to do entire time. Meanwhile Iran attack Israel. North Korea attack South Korea. Venezuela attack Guana. Azerbaijan attack Armenia. Maybe even Pakistan and India jon the rumble? There could be dozens of such ignition points. Hamas just happen prematurely as that is what they plan to do entire time and Biden know it! US is overstretched, not capable to respond to more then two fronts. Furthermore cowardly isolationist government of Trump refuse to respond. Breaking US hegemony, what is they goal entire time. It is when Russian ship show around Alaska, what was cut previously by Chinese navy and Putin actually withdrew his forces from Ukraine. excluding Crimea. He would need them somewhere else. Somewhere where he already annex as Russian soil. WW3 begin! And NATO is ironically not there. Because Chinese do not want involve Europe for now.
Anyway, this video is really bad.
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