Comments by "William Innes" (@williaminnes6635) on "Liberal Hivemind"
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The Liberals gave up.
I'd like to say it was some kind of thing that the Conservatives did,* but the Liberals knew that to get back in, they had to keep the suburbs of the Canadian rustbelt as apathetic as they usually are, and when you increase a tax on carbon, you are signaling that you are not trying to reach the suburbs.
*To be fair, 2021 was a Conservative loss because trying to message to imaginary moderates in the French-speaking majority region in between Canadian New England and the Canadian rust belt fucks up the messaging to everybody else. O'Toole had a projection that would have got him a minority with the ability to pass budgets with support from the French Canadian regional fourth party, then he had a trick question about semiautomatic rifles, and his projection collapsed.
The takeaway is, you want to stay on speaking terms with the French Canadian regional fourth party, and not antagonize any existing electoral districts you have, but you do NOT want to chase the Liberal seats in central Montreal, on the island.
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Canada is not going to last in its current form longer than a couple of decades.
(the rest is long, mostly pulled out of my ass, and I am too lazy to edit)
Path one, the Liberals either fix housing or fix the election, and get back in in 2025.
Country won't be fucked, but it will be on a constant downward trajectory to the bottom of the First World if that happens.
I say "to the bottom of the First World" because Canadian real GDP per capita would have to fall by more than a factor of three before Canada fell below the standard set by Greece and Chile as First World countries.
It might fall out of the First World in HDI terms as standard of living collapses, and could be overtaken by Mexico as Mexico most likely breaks out of the middle income trap due to the surge of industrialization it is experiencing, but I don't realistically see Canada becoming a true shit hole, strictly because it has resources, is next door to America, and Canadians are functionally the same thing as Americans from their adjacent states in the same way as Bahamians are basically central Florida people with a monarchy and there isn't a giant difference between a lot of people who live permanently next to either side of the Texas-Mexico border. Alberta is basically a more cucked Montana. British Columbia is basically a less insane Washington State. Ontario might as well be where upstate of upstate touches the easternmost suburbs of Detroit. Yukon is a more boring Alaska. Nova Scotia is a rural New England with the bad manners surgically removed. etc. The cultural similarities will contribute to keeping a floor under how far it can drift below America.
The education system and media will succeed in demoralizing people absolutely and eventually the foreign democracy ratings people will have to admit that it is a hybrid regime, similar to mainland China from Deng to Jiang, but without the economic freedom, or the sense of hope in its future.
This will coincide with mass migration, but mass migration will if anything be a way the government is able to continue to borrow favourably, and to maintain the illusion of being in the First World longer. Canada drifting toward the Third World under the "natural governing party" will not be a function of "importing the Third World."
Possibly it might lead to a caliphate, as a nonnational state entity which does not really stand for anything other than spreading out the pork, which all ready accepts the basic principle of collective "rights" which historical caliphates have used to govern minorities, and whose elites do not believe in individual rights offers very little to distinguish itself from a caliphate, let alone for which anybody would be willing to risk their safety to prevent from being turned into a caliphate, and the only group who would be able to keep up its head of steam in the organizing department would be the Sunnis. The Caliphate of Canada would also be moot in foreign policy terms, as America has many Muslim-majority allies who govern themselves according to shariah law.
Path two, the Liberals don't get back in, the Conservative insiders - the Conservatives in Canada have secret superdelegates, they are not a party where the members really vote for the leader, and were caught in shenanigans in 2018 - are not keen to make any significant changes beyond rolling back the most insane of the most insane of the Liberal policies and enacting moderate fiscal restraint, cutting off excessively partisan donors.
That path is a detour before getting back on the first path when Liberal gibs look more appetizing to the right mix of constituencies, especially corporations.
It is also the path which to me seems most likely.
Conservative insiders are not spicy people.
Path three, Conservative majority, Conservative insiders feel very spicy, and seven out of ten Premiers agree to radical decentralization.
That's the good guy path, but who knows if it will be the one chosen.
The end of it is Canada looks radically different as a country.
If the provinces do not become effectively sovereign entities cooperating on a small number of things that make actual sense - international trade deals, sometimes actually doing something for the American alliance structure - the occasional frigate or rifle battalion or a literal handful of ground attack aircraft, you need one officer to lead the auxilia, not a committee - and keeping the passport and, in a different capacity, the Canadian dollar, but that should be it - then this is a path that leads in that direction, and which permanently reduces the future influence of the federal government of Canada.
Most likely this means real GDP per capita in each province continues to stagnate, in effect, only really gaining back losses they incurred under the Trudeau Government, and standard of living recovers at least close to where it was during The Great Recession. Some provinces opt for a path which abandons America-lite soft protections for individual rights in favour of an Erdogan or Orban style illiberal democracy - Quebec for instance does not believe in individual rights, and would probably just ban the English language outright, along with taking a harder line on various speech-based offenses - while others will most likely style themselves as shotglass-sized Americas, retaining the monarchy on paper due to the wording of the agreements with Native Canadians - Canadian history is low on Indian Wars for a reason - and possibly reverting to the Unwritten Constitution as outlined in Blackstone's Commentaries rather than adopting a close imitation of the American Constitution, but introducing separation of powers - electing a President as acting head of state and executive instead of leaving those two functions with the Governor General and Prime Minister, for instance, splitting some representation from the lower house to form an upper house with teeth - Canadian provinces are effectively unicameral at the moment - and otherwise eliminating the vestiges of the Westminster system. British Columbia might declare itself an indigenous republic, since it was technically accidentally seized by the British Empire and just sort of never given back to the Native Canadians by Canada.
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