Comments by "Frederick Miles" (@frederickmiles8815) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Targeting C2 is not assassination - Ukraine PIR and SIR is not targeting info. We don't prioritize their targets - we just feed real time data that aligns to Ukrainian PIR and SIR - then Ukraine puts capabilities on targets. The high end capabilities would be systems like Paladin's or HIMAR's - Excalibur rounds are guided and super duper expensive, reserved for HVT's. What your missing is how many Excalibur rounds are provided per tube - meaning how many do you flex and for what targets and how fast could you cross load munitions in order to hit HVT's in real time. I think if I was Ukraine I would look the Crimea bridge - as those capabilities can impact logistical resupply and cutoff main land Russia from Crimera. Similar in regards to China - I would target 3 gorge dam with my long range capabilities, as well as other infrastructure targets: bridges, power stations, granaries, etc I would also target Chinese North South Water Project as the north of China lacks the required clean water it needs. Additionally look for the implementation of naval drones to take out China's shitty Navy. Remember China's military is twice as bad the Russians - literally CCP only funds 60% and has zero audit rights; just imagine the bloated numbers and corruption that is going on behind that curtain.
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  2. Trump is what happened
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  3. Tariffs like these only work in tandem with massive govt spend in support of building industry capabilities (focusing much on inputs, not just large end items imo).
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  4. Thank you, why is this so hard for folks to understand? No one understands holistically where food and energy come from, zero first principle thinking - let alone understanding supply chains (importance of golden bee bees).
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  5. Steeper discount plus demand destruction equals price plummeting. This may blow up GS, just saying.
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  6. Fun facts: DIS CFO was replaced early this year due to Enron like book keeping (to include exposure to FTX). New CFO was sent by sleazy ESG Cartel to decipher the damage (he is from Pepsi) in prep for firesale.
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  7. Biggest threat is the US oligarchy - we have entered a depression an no one knows it yet, another bailout is being negotiated, pretty much same actors form '08.
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  8. PAC3 (projectile munition) has 4 missiles per cannister and I believe 4 cannisters, with a top speed not advertised (but at a minimum over mach 2).
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  9. Palace coup wouldn’t help much, as who ever the new man would be - could not walk away from Ukraine with nothing and survive.
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  10. Typical of the leftist who can’t do math - embarrassing analysis
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  11. Coup was misdirection and setting conditions - to your point his convoy was a feint, most likely to see who is who in the zoo. The 'Angry patrtiots' and tik tok warriors are much more dangerous then Wagner/FSB/GRU slices. And the CIA and policy shitbags will choose the worst COA - supporting Shoigu, why? Because they are a sheltered joke, more concerned with careers then winning (prepping for complete victory in WW3 over China).
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  12. You are not thinking holistically - Russia has no domestic manufacturing capability to replace logistic, maint, and supply rolling stock & non rolling stock items required to keep their remaining maneuver rolling stock FMC. They basically are down to Mongolian horde of expendable infantry.
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  13. Horrific analysis - it’s sad that so many who consultant dont even grasp where money comes from. Money in our system comes from bank lending (debt creation) - Fed does not create dollars, its reserve collateral is swapped for assets from participant banks and used as collateral in their repo markets (inter bank lending), Fed no go brrrr but can act as Banker for banks with an infinite liability cheat code built into the system to remove toxic assets (non performing collateral) with reserves that can be used to ‘prime the pump’. Fed fund is just 2 year Treasury - they dont even control that (by design) and big fear in credit risk land is monetary deflation especially is debt (bonds) that underpin liquidity under perform blowing up OTC swaps and credit spreads.
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  14. Imagine if this was combined with large scale solar farms throughout the south west and more modern wind farms in the plains? Our domestic energy prices would plummet - in support of manufacturing and retail consumption. Agreed - our energy output is the key to onshoring, we just dont have the right horses in office to run this race (as its still fossil fuel heavy for decades).
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  15. Love your analysis but there is a 3rd path that bleeds into one that you mentioned - Russian coup and follow on civil war - 'bandit wars' - spurred by defeat in Ukraine. Most dont understand the ratios of war - ~10 to 15% of personal will be maneuver, meaning Russia has lost their army. Therefore it would make sense that smaller, regional players move when Moscow is at its weakest and most divided. With out a national army warlords and mercenary commanders take over - this could force the follow players to run closer to China (but that may lead China getting sucked into a nightmare scenario) or more likely run to the west for help in search of stability (as their western gaps are defended if they are a member of NATO) - along with Ukraine. For context - after seeing the Russians in Syria none of the last year or so shocked me. regardless of outcome just going into Ukraine would break the Russian military imo - independent of the Ukrainians desire to fight. I was more shocked that Ukraine didnt attack during the winter or that JIT logistics waited until end of Q2. But alas I thought the russians would try and train their conscripts and not burn through them and their remaining FMC rolling stock. So Q4 on everything has broken to Ukraine's side - as Russia has made every possible operational and strategic mistake one could make, while most of Ukraine's gambles have paid off. I also do agree now that the wests paced and conservative approach seems to have been the most productive.
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  16. Also in context losses are well over 100k for Russia, but broken down to MoD, conscripts, Wagner, LPR, DPR, Patriot, etc... that is why numbers are so wild and apart. My understanding actual Russian MoD is under 50k - more then double that is the other buckets above.
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  17. He and his team tried and failed - kind of hilarious - US is number 1 in the world.
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  18. Corrupt rot has placed all of western civilization on the back foot - even our educational system is broken as yesterdays high school diploma is todays undergraduate degree (with 100k of debt) and at worst you get a degree in a made up field, backed by a jacobin like religion. I dont see western Europe recovering any time soon - i see them instead going isolationist or drifting towards authoritarianism.
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  19. Its worse - it already collapsed but due to the manipulation of payments and settlements (decaying collateral of the western oligarchs - they dont want mark to market) its more like the willie coyote who ran off a cliff on a puff of smoke. If the smart kids time it right - rug pull happens during an offensive or aggressive Chinese push to Taiwan (CCP gets blamed and that is a trigger for bailouts of the same bad actors from 08). But dont be fooled - for many this is fatal - meaning there are multiple parties seeking to hand over Taiwan to CCP and go back to BAU.
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  20. Russia is losing its manhood one day at a time - this is how the idiots in DC hiding out are going to divide Iran and Russia, pure clown shoes.
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  21. Space mining and off world manufacturing - powered by Elon’s Optimus bots (his conglomerate is super vertical). Also base camps on Mars and Moon are now easier lifts - once again executed by bots, permanent off world occupation and exploration in support of one day human occupation.
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  22. Canalization - all assets being moved to a poorly equipped/defended spot whose only value is distance from fires. If Ukraine 'developed' sufficient long range capabilities - that would be a death blow to Russia's Navy (the little part of it that is FMC).
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  23. If Ukraine took out Kadyrov - that would be a smart move - kick the hornets nest and walk away.
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  24. Just keep paying 12th directorate - sabotage isnt cheap ;) And yeah it is going to happen - either we knock it down or it doesnt work. Either way strategically target: decapitation & ICBMs/stockpiles, ensure 12th directorate get off ramp to stateside with sweaty bags of cash.
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  25. Crippling Russian operational and strategic logistics / fires cripples Russian defense in Ukraine - also cripples their strategic sticks and makes maintaining their legitimacy and authority domestically damn near impossible as time grinds on. And yes - Taiwan can take the Chinese Navy with ease once drones are in place - long range hits strategic to include ports and drones attack near term. Also long range commercial drones - will be the tool I would use to kill their air defense. Have you watched recent Moscow guerilla interviews recently? First time ever - where the near term street logic is what really is winning / losing - like what is the difference for me? Is losing that bad, is it really losing as long as Russia maintains its Federation? Real fear - will Russia tear itself apart - first time these topic were brought up by folks being interviewed.
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  26. can you fathom the otc swap exposure?
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  27. This is the real reason we need to leave NATO - getting sucked into a collapsing EU (civil strife).
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  28. Omfg my guy - ask yourself what constitutes a fleet and how many assets on the open sea would we even consider FMC?
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  29. Love your analysis but you still dont get where money comes or repo markets in general. Ukraine / gov spending going ham at all levels (to pay for student loan forgiveness, muni bonds sold to pay for migrant boondoggles, Israel, Ukraine war, etc) is all about pumping (selling) tbills that are used to buoy money market funds to keep repo markets stable (as that is the current collateral underpinning our fuggazi markets). Everything else is theater and side show - reverse repo is draining, bank lending facility is sunsetting and when curve reverts those money market funds sink and everyone runs to long bond (security) as market crashes.
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  30. LOL actually parameter tuning impacts AI's ability to create 'good' or 'evil' characters. @jaimeriveras 
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  31. Strangest part of the whole covo is the obsession with EV's and not grid BCP DR or out right replacement throughout southwest and west coast - southeast as well. It is mindboggling that the current and incompetent regime has no subsidized large scale solar farms in areas that could benefit the most (replacing or augmenting grid, lowering price for wholesale and retail). That is where you get the most bang for your book, not EVs (which outside of TSLA are not that great), but energy storage supported by efficiency / preservation algo's would be huge gain for increasing prod by lower cost of fuel. And yes I have no issue with investing in carbon fuels as well. I would love to see Peter talk about methane - may driver for increased temperature around the globe, while Co2 dropped due to pandemic (hasnt yet recovered from 2019 level) since 2006 methane has been showing signs of ice age termination event. Main driver no one has a good explanation as wetlands are largest contributors by far, unless culprit is underground volcanic activity they leads to melting of permafrost maybe?
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  32. You have zero understanding of how our monetary and fiscal systems actually work. If you did you would see the linkage.
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  33. Tesla's are amazing - EV's are trash (masked bailout of bad actors in the auto sector).
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  34. Its a defacto sanction against TX - beyond stupidity, rumorint - Susan Rice is last adult in room and DoD is hunkering down until election is over. Sullivan has been hands down the worst NSA in history, Blinken has no stones to push back.
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  35. This is like the Japan-Russo war fucked 1917 Russia and gave birth to this nightmare. I saw it first hand when i was deployed in the Mid East (2018) - I tried to tell everyone the Russians were a paper tiger and if you think their bad wait until you see the CCP's forces.
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  36. Polls are largely pay for play - internal polling is what is real, so no matter how bad you think Biden is doing, its much much worse. For instance, internal polling shows NJ and NM are toss ups.
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  37. Invasion of Taiwan is a last and desperate gasp - once that fails the CCP is toast. But yes it will happen soon - as Winnie the Pooh is a one man band with no real data determining his decision making. This would lead to break up of China, not just end of CCP - and agree on famine.
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  38. Also have you heard rumblings about Chechnya's involvement in attacks on settlements - as in their relationship to new Hamas splinter.
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  39. Answer: to secure the collateral of US oligarchs, Tony is a step and fetch, modern State Dept is the equivalent of wholesale banking relationship managers. They are trying to back pedal on China as fast as their corrupt legs can carry them - but its too late :-) WW3 is still on track and this second gilded age is coming closer to its demise.
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  40. Its also a bad digital architecture 'thing' - as TGA is one lump data set, and not pnl focused, where a specific revenue tga (payroll tax) funds specific product portfolios (safety net). And your understanding of our monetary system is child like - there is no click of the button buying LOL - bank reserves are not dollars as the Fed's repo market are closed off from real economy. Also QE (what you describe as the Fed legally cannot buy debt directly by design as we dont want to be a ponzi scheme lol) is not a requirement (where banks use cash & deposits to buy bills and bonds to then exchange at Fed for bank reserves for use in Fed repo market), meaning if you wanted to grow the real economy you would stop QE as it traps liqidity (deflationary long term as asset bubbles are no longer underpinned by collateral). The governments ability to sell debt (finance operations and products) is only possible if banks are willing to buy. Current Tbill shortfalls are due to ongoing bailout of money market funds, which is causing a major upswing in usage of MBS in OTC (outside Fed) repo markets. Overall I love your work but study the mechanics of the system that is. Literally everything I learned in MS in Fin Risk and my MBA is trash - you dont study the real system and that is and that is why Econ PhD's are toilet paper. You also fail to realize the Fed flows to TGA (meaning name of the game is to never have Treasury pay off the nut just coupons, as the Fed and US federal government own the plurality of all US denominated debt (over 33%). Nor do you understand more US denominated debt is generated offshore then domestically as the Fed has zero control over money supply or even the Fed fund rate (which is just the 2 year tbond - that is how Fed 'controls' near end). Its sort of like the wizard of oz - where the many disparate stakeholders behind the curtain vie for policies and meat puppets (jaw boning) that benefit their collective interest. Fed was never meant to be a real central bank.
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  41. If folks in DC were smart (and they are not) - when Tarp 2.0 gets socialized with the US population (as the idiots believe they need to inflate away the debt, instead of selling the trillions of US debt already on the books and updating fiscal models to remove unfunded liabilities) they would focus on sunken capital grants (partnering with private sector) in support of bringing back critical manufacturing to economically depressed (cheap) areas of America, where an updated minimum wage (13 - 15 an hour) could get you a house and a house wife. And yes America has plenty of those types of communities (both urban and rural).
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  42. Their military is trash - the training they provided to Ukraine was hot trash, they dont have a real NCO corp. And your right - they are the massive weak link, which they dont really grasp, and they are ready to get bent over. What they are doing is a decade to late.
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  43. Audit to find and act, later Congress will coedify. Birthright will be his Gaetz, it’s a loss that is red meat to base.
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  44. So much money is flowing from scum like Soros and the ESG mafia - you see it on the local level. They are trying to ruin America's greatest success story.
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  45. Ken Griffin & Soros vs the American people (that is why I am voting for Trump, at best he can annihilate the the US oligarchs - if his team isnt complete dogshit like it was the first time around). This will be my first time voting for him. And you are wrong on interpretations, CO does not have the right (regardless of bribes received) to kick off candidates they dont like.
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  46. And its much more complicated - Russia, Syria, Iran, Saud, Israel and non state actor (political parties, terrorist wings, etc) - as all actors have a spectrum of legitimacy and authority. 2 realities that matter most external to US: 1) israel will annex north of Khan Yunis 2) Israel will do more to embrace and support Zellensky (as Wagner was involved in training and maybe as well as supplies - those referenced new TTP's. Internally - this is the beginning of the end of the progressive woke mind virus.
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  47. @ They could lift payroll tax cap, not adjust formula, stop taxing social security, and raise age to 65 to make program solvent and then sell ~3 trillion in tbills to banks and use that 3 trillion to fund large scale industrial and mining investments domestically. With an eye towards robotics, AI, and exploratory mining / off world manufacturing. But alas the swamp is to lazy and corrupt.
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  48. What if Wagner got what they wanted and left, now they wait for a Ukraine breakthrough, while slowly moving pieces into place. And the only defensive tactic Putin and team have is family and friends of Wagner that they were able to acquire. Has anyone seen Gerasimov?
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  49. The only people who were shocked by this are the ones who are woke globalist or those who cant do math. The amount of hatred brewing within Europe is a powder keg. The EU exits will grow - at least in attempts, until violence explodes. Your spot on about US / NAFTA system, 'fortress america' and not just UK will take bad deals to be within her walls.
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  50. on descent, they slow down greatly, they are easy to hit - plus PAC3 can self adjust
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  51. Question - what will the Marshall Plan lite look like for Ukraine, post war? That is the strategic planning that should be taking place right now - what does Ukraine need post war to maximize energy / agriculture / manufacturing (supplied by US, UK, EU production).
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  52.  @cmichaelhoover8432  Agree on use of funds but disagree with Russian taxation - especially this phase will kick off their bandit / civil war.
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  53. Hypersonic weapons area joke - and not that isnt the future of warfare - its comical the obsession over branding vs actual capabilities.
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  54. Man you really dont understand how monetary system actually works - selling off already happened a month ago (volume is off exchange and a distribution algo is trickling that vol out). There is zero price discovery in US equity markets as majority of volume is off exchange and unseen (as well as the corresponding CDS hedging instruments). And yeah we are prepping for a depression not a recession. And let me help you - money (USD) is created via bank lending (debt based fractional reserve banking) not the Fed (which is more a participant owned SRO then a central bank, similar to DTCC which is the owner of the actual equity market true shares). Fed bank reserves are like chucky cheese tokens - only have value in their repo markets. What we have in america is more akin to central planning you see in oligarchies - socializing losses, privatizing gains - currently we have massive monetary deflation as root cause. How narrative will evolve: inflation, fear of hyperinflation (which is impossible by our systems current design), stagflation, oh wait we have massive, massive deflation and we are in a depression.
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  55. Much depends on Turkey's economic woes and Iran's extortion of the Biden cucks.
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  56.  @Withnail1969  Correct which means the more issues they have with production the more they starve - along with their traditional clients. This benefits the US greatly as our production can fill the gap (at the right price) and hurts China on a deep, deep level since they import over 50% of their oil and food.
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  57.  @Withnail1969  US in 2022 was the top producer in the world and Canada was number 6 - and that was with horrid policies in place. Germany is investing deep in the gulf o MX - mostly in LA, west will be ok. Also, there will be a Marshall Plan light of Ukraine - with US companies (our tech leading them - their fuel resources will be huge in the second half of this decade as they come online.
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  58. Totally agree - I would also add the need for new large scale water ways (that can also sever and support irrigation and agriculture. Build waterways to divert from Mississippi river west - all the way to AZ. Would drastically change the economy in southwest and support farmland and forestry (carbon/methane capture).
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  59. ECB is beyond a corrupt joke - league of nations with a checkbook - its not just the military side of the equation. Checkout the eurodollar market, Italian paper, German paper, etc collateral collapse is a real thing. Folks call it liquidity crisis - but that is just the boil related to the disease (fugazzi or decaying collateral that underpins liquidity is root cause). ECB was nothing more then a physical and economic buffer for Germany & France - but both barriers are now breaking.
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  60. Its ironic that AOC worships him - Hugo and Gramsci are her north stars.
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  61. Russian counters are mind boggling batshit - they are literally draining their defenses, burning through conscripts, and equipment as they lack the logistical ability to sustain any real push. Southern front - main Russian line is paper (it has been drained of commodities and manpower) - Ukraine will easily punch throw if they can reach it with a sizable element.
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  62. Hydrogen for planes makes a lot more sense then cars - and further more off world manufacturing of hydrogen engines makes a lot of sense for space travel.
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  63. They cant produce enough to make money with the artificial floor created by sanctions - diminishing returns and decaying capabilities (artic Iran).
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  64. Russia is de-evolving into Artic Iran.
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  65. Sort of - and honestly all of us in CENTCOM who saw the Russians and read the real time Intsums and Grintsums were not shocked by outcome of their invasion and the pain points Peter called out. However Peter needs to research our connection to 12th directorate and realize Russian nukes are trash - they internally dont believe they even work and their biggest fear is firing one or two and having them be easily intercepted or not working. Although they are by no means as bad as the PLA's stockpile of ~400.
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  66. Conscripts make for a better defensive force - asking them to go on the offensive is madness. I am was wrong as well - I never thought Russia would burn through their conscripts and remaining modern FMC rolling stock on a crazy, poorly managed offensive (pure madness). While the number of conscripts is a story - the Russian willingness to use conscripts in such a manner as outlined above is a bigger story. Just imagine how poorly maintained their nuclear stockpile and the 'at the ready' nulcear assets are?
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  67.  @getur99  Agreed - flexing those systems else where would not be an easy task. Plus the more Russia flexes to the front the more naked they appear and the more targets Ukraine has. I could see it as as a trigger event - like when Ukraine finally hits the AA in eastern Ukraine or the main AA in Russia; also hit the bridge. That would cause more then a just a tactical pause.
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  68. Folks always forget to look at both sides of supply / demand - what happens when Iran and Russian sanctions create new artificial floor for supply (drags price down), what happens when China demand collapses (drags price down), what happens when developing countries in the west and central heart of africa enter into 'bandit wars' and their demand becomes volatile and used as methods of control domestically (Somalia in the 90's) as sanction regimes become more of the norm and colonial tendencies reverberate? Overall we are headed for a global depression - US banks keep failing, and will continue too. Large global banks (especially in APAC) in countries friendly and not friendly to us have already failed - its just the digital architecture allows for manipulation of time and space, so must dont realize it yet and when they do they will quickly be told you can only withdraw small amounts. The catalyst will be collateral scarcity which is already massively rehypothethicated to service insane amounts of liquidity that evaporates as collateral (bonds) start to underperform / fail.
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  69. I war with China would take weeks, not months - to hell with blockades just decimate ports and infrastructure. I would start looking at Taiwan as the future - start mapping our provincial leaders who want to be Presidents of their new respective nations.
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  70. Neither the Russian military or PLA are built to project military capabilities beyond their borders. As long as we do not invade either country - a military conflict would take weeks, not months.
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  71. Kreminna asap, the push south - its wide open, and I agree its scorched earth - they know they cant hold and seek strategic goals. However they cant hold Crimea without water.
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  72. Sort of right but also very wrong - CCP currency is a derivative of USD (pegging, yen carry trade, etc) that is all it is. The more as you put it 'saturate' the more they are inflating that peg and make yen carry unsustainable. The real deflation is the underlying - USD denominated debt (collateral). As I told Heather and Janet prior Biden taking the oath - there would be no post lockdown recovery there would only be USD deflation that idiots in the Fed would treat as inflation as rehypothethication of existing pristine collateral that underpins liquidity is a chimera, as most collateral is built on decaying quicksand (derivatives, equity - which is rigged via ml algos, and good old fashioned ponzi schemes - 'hedged' by toxic CDSs), meaning a huge chunk of that global 300+ tril USD debt cannot be paid back and as rates rise in order to fight a nonexistent enemy, causing production grinds down and prices go up). True inflation is money supply is flooded (like DXY under 85) and tons of cash are chasing goods and services that cannot keep up as the economy runs hot, causing prices to out pace prod. True deflation is the cost of capital is so great to due scarcity of currency you produce less and charge more (in the depression wages went up and many times prod would be shuddered for weeks at a time). Its been so long that folks cant separate price v monetary inflation/deflation. As the Austrians pointed out all inflation/deflation in monetary, price to prod stats are KPIs or KRI and no one can track global dollar supply. Also if you dont understand that Fed bank reserves are not currency - you shouldn't comment on economics. Currency in our system is created via bank lending not Powell going brrrr (while reserves may prime the pump that is only true if our clients are credit worthy). BOE and others are different, but in our system credit risk is decentralized and our hollow man central bank is privately owned (by participants) but guided by public targets.
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  73. @ Just get on your knees and thank the Orange man - he made the border great again in under 100 days.
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  74. Macron is a weak weirdo - best thing he can do is nothing and hope for the best, plus like many of his counterparts, as banking starts to hemorrhage in weeks to months he will go into hiding anyways.
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  75. Opening salvos of the coming caucus wars - which may result in a caucus emirates of sorts.
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  76. The more folks panic over reach, the more their fate is sealed. The constitution is a death pact, OFAC sanctions need to be evolved to break modern terror networks like WEF, WHO, or former allied countries - who seek to undermine our rights as Americans.
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  77. Also if you understand monetary and fiscal (wealth gap) you would grasp the US members of the donor class who are seeking to sabotage the US, as they view themselves as above the nation State (Dutch India Company on steroids).
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  78. Between Russia and Iran being in a box (artificial floor in price), combined with collapse in demand, crude will crash again. I would have preferred the alternate option - eradicate Iranian ports and infrastructure. And when the time comes if Saudi chose the wrong side - i would do the same as there is no need to waste naval capabilities on blockades. Plus - if we combined both actions with increased domestic (plus Canadian) investments both US and Canada would evolve into top 3 producers for this century (minus Russia, Saudi, & Iran). Also there is a world where Turkey signs off on Kurdistan (North Iraq, East Syria, and Northwest Iran) - have all oil pipelines flow through Turkey and or Jordan (Mediterranean Ports only).
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  79.  @Gridlocked  Wouldn't take much honestly - do you think anyone has any type of defense capable of stopping us from hitting any target we would like (via naval or air platform)? Same goes for the Saudi's - if they want to go hold hands and jump off a cliff. The US and CA are 1 and 3 fossil fuel producers - stripping away global china demand as well as Saudi, Iran, and Russia supply balances out very quickly, gives another generation of on top. We need to run head first into the de-globalization (reshoring) and not waste energy trying to reassemble humpty dumpty to protect our incompetent US oligarchs.
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  80. Its always been deflation - our system money is generated by bank lending (its collateral plus liquidity that collateral underpins). In barney terms non performing loans equates to deflation (produce less and charge more). Fed does not by toxic assets - they swap in return for reserves that we can only use in their overnight lending market. Credit Risk is the true bell weather - not CPI or trimmed CPE, Fed's only real power is masking non performance (encouraging moral hazard) at the benefit of their participant ownership.
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  81.  @Art-is-craft  Are you daft boy? I have over a decade in the industry working in the past at the largest bank in the world supporting their Wholesale products: Merchant Services, Treasury, Treasury Services, Data Science, and their ETH Blockchain platform. Only reason I left was to double my pay, less hours, and move to a position where I could day trade. Let me guess you live in your mom’s basement and obsess over pronouns?
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  82.  @Art-is-craft  And for context simple Simon, Gold is now a tier 1 asset class, was tier 3, but honestly doesnt mean anything as stress testing is a paper test.
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  83.  @Art-is-craft  No dipshit; I don’t really care about commodity backed currency. I work and make money in the system that is.
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  84.  @Art-is-craft  Did you eat paint chips as a kid?
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  85. Its the progressives - the shitty is a shithole and we (royal we in finance) want out and quickly. For our employees it has become unlivable. Same with most west coast cities. Also have friends NYARNG who are on the job - most crime is no longer even recorded or reported (its nuts). Most are just in it to ride out their pensions, next generation behind them is beyond corrupt under the guise of wokeness - just like city hall. But its not the 1970's its more akin to some horrid mix of great depression meets gangs of ny (tammany hall).
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  86. You will also limit shadow banking (off exchange / off book) - especially swap insurance products on off exchange positions and transactions. The biggest risk is not tokenizing the underlying collateral (meaning Fed must tokenize bank reserves). At JPM Onyx we mapped the use cases out years ago. What the not so smart kids at Fed dont get - due layering via API, Wormhold Bridges (between blockchains) supported by smart contract, that transaction will not a straight shot as modern finance is focused on manipulation of time and space of a transaction to build are benefit from artificial arbitrage opportunities. Also, if curious look at Ripple's XRP - btw Fed is not a real central bank (they dont create currency). The real risk is FedNow having retail ledgers - using your banks UI or a unique one - that is how you get hyperinflation (when you stop banking credit risk models from driving your monetary expansion or contraction). If deflation is as bad as we think it is - Fed may bow to political pressure and JP might actually go brrrr... that is the real risk. Benefit is simple Fed will actually see the money supply for the first time in decades as most USD is created offshore without Fed's knowledge.
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  87. mmmm chocolate unicorns - and most still dont understand innovation isnt a silver bullet but rather its a new shiny set of problems to replace prior risk.
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  88. LOGPAC and LOCs targeting - while shaping who takes over post Putin. Russia will exist - just diminished and THAAD/AEGIS PAC3's ae no joke, and that is just one layer, nuclear war doesn't scare me (us).
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  89. And your way off on Progi, its not him its his FSB (paramilitary wing) that is the best and worst of his clique. He himself understands Russian culture, macro economics, oligarchs and their bureaucrats. Meaning he can be a a more pro western Putin (if our OGA's werent so slow, in every possible way) but he could also be the one to end the Ukraine war and support our war with China. We just need to give him legitimacy and economic boost post Ukraine.
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  90. hmmm... mid east post US - Imagine 2 jawa's Eifel towering a donkey while their camels look on with jealousy in their eyes.
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  91. Russian MoD (ADA or air to air) but not going to Moscow was silly, threatening Poland was just a death wish. Also, the 'other' Wagner plane - the one that landed, everyone was arrested (may have been a convergence of actors). You also missed the French (Niger).
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  92. regional solutions that diversify production and storage for the whole are the most functional and sustainable approaches.  @bwbw3647 
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  93. Its worse - range of whack job left wing and right wing folk.
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  94. Bibi and Putin are very similar, he wont stop now. Biden is senile and his team has fallen apart. Lloyd and others in Pentagon - for a fact are looking forward to transitioning. Lloyd and those near him are scared of over reach not from Biden but from his team (one of those dont call us, we will call you). And everyone is happy Nuland got shitcanned.
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  95. AU is biggest risk in APAC for US not JP, JP can and will adjust - for reasons you stated - AU is jumping of a ledge (political and economic ledge).
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  96. EU / ECB is a byzantine Ponzi scheme - bureaucracy exist to build regulatory arbitrage for a series of pan EU players and institutions. In contrast the CCP is a centralized Ponzi scheme, solely benefitting specific government players and their tentacles.
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  97. Why do you think WH is proposing using tax payer cash to uplift legacy auto EV production - answer: bailout, like many industries straddled with debt and decaying consumers they are close to their end. Not bailouts let them fail and come out of bankruptcy stronger.
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  98. Job security and fear - he is a strange and paranoid duck.
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  99. Yup - biggest losers Germany and France - regional future of western Europe will be who has the best deal with the US going forward.
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  100. Next thunder run will target Melitopol - cutting the Russian forces in half, just saying.
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  101. BRICS = collapsing developing economies that can no longer afford USD (to include servicing their massive amounts of USD denominated debt). As their main trading partners all want USD (for their own reasons) their economic collapse will trigger a political collapse. Hence why US oligarchs are seeking alternative methods of payment away from USD as much of the oligarchs holdings are in BRICS (or wanna be BRICS) nation states.
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  102.  @colingravon9810  Ukraine needs to leverage the discontent - once Russians start openly picking sides and killing each other they get their land back. Russian civil war 'Bandit War' is the happy path. Especially for folks like China and the US. US's OGA assets need to make a drug deal with the orcs guarding the nuclear power plant, offer them millions, citizenship, house, 2 cars, etc as long as they deliver that thing intact when the actual counter offensive starts.
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  103. That was humiliating for the US, the sheer scale of US corruption is disturbing.
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  104. Its energy - that determines much of the cost of processing, cheaper our energy the more we process. Secondly, access to mining resources that supports maximization of availability of inputs. We have labor, at a cost - that cost is only lowered why cheap energy, access to metals, and what he called out above - subsidizing manufacturing production.
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  105. Peter - you need to get out more, suburbs hate the woke more then MAGA - I voted for Biden and will happily vote Trump if he promises to eradicate the woke mind virus. I have 3 grad degrees, field grade officer (3 tours served), decade plus in wholesale banking - none of you seem to understand the level of hatred for the woke, it has surpassed that of MAGA.
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  106. kids checkout oil option chains, may the fates ever be in your favor.
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  107. Bro those of us (I) and conservative to moderate Democrats who supported Biden in 2020, in the suburbs, are all rolling to Trump. But we dont want the sanitized 'Presidential' Trump, we want the crazy burn down the DOJ and build a wall guy he claims to be. Oh and Haley is the GOP version of Gavin Newsome - the level of cringe and hate at them and or Harris is astounding. I dont know anyone who openly says 'I am voting for' - Biden, Harris, Gavin, M Obama, Haley, etc - the amount of hate the average American has for the donor (US oligarchs) class is epic. Ken Griffin and Soros could be lynched by a mob tomorrow in NYC and no one in the burbs would care.
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  108. And what is most pathetic about the discussion - methane is far more dangerous then carbon (which is ~40 times less dangerous to run away temp and provides some coverage from the sun). In fact the combination of increased methane and less carbon in the atmosphere are both drivers for temps going vertical.
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  109. Spot on analysis concerning what happens when US realizes portions of our oligarchy actively profit from financially supporting our enemies who rely upon the US Navy as security iso trade. Remove that support and two enemies (far and near) collapse. And hopefully there are no ‘Dulles brothers’ around to save them.
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  110. Oligarchy - State Street, BLK, and Vanguard (and some other players Quant / Capital group etc) own legacy outlets. The show runners who develop content cobble together facts behind specific narratives that align to ownership. If you want to break them - stop pharmaceutical advertising.
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