Comments by "Frederick Miles" (@frederickmiles8815) on "Ukraine War Updates Part 3: What’s Next for Russia || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. Love your analysis but there is a 3rd path that bleeds into one that you mentioned - Russian coup and follow on civil war - 'bandit wars' - spurred by defeat in Ukraine. Most dont understand the ratios of war - ~10 to 15% of personal will be maneuver, meaning Russia has lost their army. Therefore it would make sense that smaller, regional players move when Moscow is at its weakest and most divided. With out a national army warlords and mercenary commanders take over - this could force the follow players to run closer to China (but that may lead China getting sucked into a nightmare scenario) or more likely run to the west for help in search of stability (as their western gaps are defended if they are a member of NATO) - along with Ukraine. For context - after seeing the Russians in Syria none of the last year or so shocked me. regardless of outcome just going into Ukraine would break the Russian military imo - independent of the Ukrainians desire to fight. I was more shocked that Ukraine didnt attack during the winter or that JIT logistics waited until end of Q2. But alas I thought the russians would try and train their conscripts and not burn through them and their remaining FMC rolling stock. So Q4 on everything has broken to Ukraine's side - as Russia has made every possible operational and strategic mistake one could make, while most of Ukraine's gambles have paid off. I also do agree now that the wests paced and conservative approach seems to have been the most productive.
    2
  2.  @colingravon9810  Ukraine needs to leverage the discontent - once Russians start openly picking sides and killing each other they get their land back. Russian civil war 'Bandit War' is the happy path. Especially for folks like China and the US. US's OGA assets need to make a drug deal with the orcs guarding the nuclear power plant, offer them millions, citizenship, house, 2 cars, etc as long as they deliver that thing intact when the actual counter offensive starts.
    1