Youtube comments of Frederick Miles (@frederickmiles8815).

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  3. The gamma squeeze on 18 June will be five times bigger than last weeks, currently over 500K calls in the money equal to 50+MM of shares - 10% of companies float. And you can literally see the naked shorting in real time using level 2 data - across all meme stocks, literally at the same time; systemic dumping of 20 MM shares in one to five minute intervals to break up price momentum that would trigger algo's to buy. The best way to combat short ladder attacks is to place incremental buys - .3 or .5 and not just buy in whole shares; since it slows done and clogs of dark pools limiting damage down by naked short attacks. And good job Bloomberg for being the adult in the room; now please look at Citadel's naked shorting - they have 2 books: one you see in the market place and the other one they keep offline (they are trying to unwind now by faking a squeeze, which you will see that as the narrative this week or next). And S3 is correct Kenny G belongs in prison - if the SEC ever decides to do its job. Much like 2008; they took advatage of time; the T+3 to settle - when you buy a stock the market maker has T+3 to find the security - they have a book (digitally speaking) of billions of AMC IOU's that they were never ever to fill - hence you have billions of AMC shares floating around when the company only issued 500MM. When margin calls and fire sales commence the share price will go into the thousands as banks who lent and the dtcc algo's unwind the position in order to eliminate the fake shares; just one apes opinion...
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  11. Love your content - just two observations from someone who grew up on welfare in a small town in VT, used the military to get ahead - lived ~20 years in NYC before my wife and I move to north Dallas suburbs in 2018 after my last deployment; work in banking, (risk/controls) home owner and car owner (for meta data attributed to my observations). Observations are as follows: current migration trends are largely reversing the dust bowl great depression migration trends of ~2 to 3 generations back. An example: my wife is from southern Cali - her grandfather was from Arkansas, we now live in north Texas. Her cousin moved from Venice to a small town in Arkansas. This trend is playing out where many coastal folk are moving back to the lower central southern portion of the country, unwinding the Okie - Grapes of Wrath migration of generations ago. Also I dont understand the obsession of politics - in blue states that are wealthy the corruption is state driven, one party dominant, and hidden behind fat and grisel cancel culture politics. The poor red states - are the largest welfare recipients per capital in America - there state government's corruption is basically skimming the federal dole - while blaming their failures on culture wars, also one party rule. When you zoom out its largely same shit, just different toilets. For the record overseas any where is infinitely worse from what I have seen. And small towns arent safe - i was shot in the back in one growing up - my uncle was one of the largest dealers in VT before becoming a junkie. I grew up in violence and chaos - I also lived in some sketchy parts of Harlem back in the day while in ROTC / grad school. I always felt safer in Harlem - the corruption, drug game, etc always had rules and guardrails while the poverty, drug game, and violence was always unfettered and personal (everyone knows everyone, from the dealers to the corrupt cops).
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  922. Delfation: strong dollar, banks arent lending and production is artificially reduced in order to create scarcity keeping prices high in order to prevent going into the red due to massive debt load: 1928-29. This is a feedback cycle were productivity is sacrificed in order to maintain higher and higher price points the consumer and wholesaler cannot pay - creating more and more dollar scarcity. Inflation: weak dollar, banks lending money hand over fist, and year over year (like a decades worth) of real wage growth. This creates buying pressure for the same amount of goods, which then causes economies to increase production (economy is running hot) - increased production cant meet new demand and therefore prices adjust upwards. Hyper-inflation: cannot happen in America - why? our central bank and treasury do not print dollars, rather they sell or swap collateral (bonds). The banking sector creates dollars when they make loans - like you put down 20%, banks snap their fingers and give you 80% out of thin air and then turn around and sell that loan (comprised of 80% of your home) to investors for a fee. I dont know why the American people dont understand the simplicity of the model; maybe they are all just to wired with partisan narratives and nonsense. This is why Kenny and Ray's bleeding wound is shorting treasuries - they like most of you thought price action is inflationary; its not rather its an indicator. Just checkout the TLT short interest - mind blowing amount; if that rises many ships get capsized; and it will rise.
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  969. Love your analysis but there is a 3rd path that bleeds into one that you mentioned - Russian coup and follow on civil war - 'bandit wars' - spurred by defeat in Ukraine. Most dont understand the ratios of war - ~10 to 15% of personal will be maneuver, meaning Russia has lost their army. Therefore it would make sense that smaller, regional players move when Moscow is at its weakest and most divided. With out a national army warlords and mercenary commanders take over - this could force the follow players to run closer to China (but that may lead China getting sucked into a nightmare scenario) or more likely run to the west for help in search of stability (as their western gaps are defended if they are a member of NATO) - along with Ukraine. For context - after seeing the Russians in Syria none of the last year or so shocked me. regardless of outcome just going into Ukraine would break the Russian military imo - independent of the Ukrainians desire to fight. I was more shocked that Ukraine didnt attack during the winter or that JIT logistics waited until end of Q2. But alas I thought the russians would try and train their conscripts and not burn through them and their remaining FMC rolling stock. So Q4 on everything has broken to Ukraine's side - as Russia has made every possible operational and strategic mistake one could make, while most of Ukraine's gambles have paid off. I also do agree now that the wests paced and conservative approach seems to have been the most productive.
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  1049.  @Capostrophy  Not with rates ticking up - trust me the market is setting up for the next leg down. with near zero rates it was easy to fund unlimited short selling in order to manipulate or destroy price discovery. with the cost of borrowing rising, and with everyone leveraged up to their eyeballs things are going to break - hft algo's can only buoy this nightmare for so long. what 99% of the public doesnt get: what we have is far worse then inflation - its deflation, what is worse then a recession is a depression. You dont have monetary inflation when the DX-Y is hovering damn near 100 and prices are rising due to production destruction caused by cost of debt that keeps rising (meaning companies need to produce less and charge more, like a doom vortex). Most outside my side of the banking industry dont understand that the Fed doesnt print dollars, they create reserve collateral used only by large players in the repo markets. I have over a decade in banking, 3 tours served as an army officer, grew up poor white trash - live in the burbs and all i feel is survivors guilt for what is to come. Dont support any party backing bailouts let them fail. The criminals who built the MBS / CDO debacle built the everything bubble in equity markets (powered by credit default swaps - credit risk instruments that measure in the trillions). We are at the end of our nations second gilded age - this oligarchy will fall like the last one did: pandemic, global war, depression caused by turning equity markets into ponzi schemes. Every president we have had since Bush Sr has been a useless meat puppet - they have no clue how the markets work, let alone understand the digital architecture of the markets or defense industry - I just hope when the economy does crater the American people select a President built for war as China is coming up very soon. But that will be a good news story since the US Navy is the most destructive force ever developed and may be finally allowed to be let off the chain in the very near future, inshallah.
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  1262.  @selekedimafate5935  CPI is way down that is deflationary; interest rates are not going up that is deflation - the transitory inflation is three factors: supply chain glut, labor wants/needs more, and corporate debt is through the roof. It will be transitory because it is not sustainable, meaning: supply chain cost increased cant be passed on due to debt, profit margin crunches caused by servicing existing debt and labor cost going up. This will lead companies to do more with less and or reduce production and services. Inventory is also a great number to watch; goods went through the roof in regards to wallet allocation of consumer - now it is returning to more service oriented, meaning companies and consumers have lots and lots of inventory. And no i didnt; i dont think you understand monetary policy or what inflation is; for instance - if you increase the monetay supply by 20 times current amount and look up that increase in the Fed you dont move M2; money does not move; it all just paper. The inflation in the financial economy is not due to new money circulation but rehypothithicaion of existing shares, t-bills/t-bonds, etc.. This will be the cause of the next collapse - to little quality collateral, while in '08 it was to little liquidity. Both were caused by the Fed: Greenspan caused liquidity crisis and the new set of fools caused the collateral crisis - the Fed is teh RCA; their failure to understand the system they have inherited has f*cked the global economy yet again.
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  1519.  @wizzyno1566  You dont understand monetary policy or treasury markets - i do this for a living. I will assume your a good actor and just ignorant. I will try and explain this in the simplest terms possible. Gold standard: currency (USD) issuance based on a ratio to gold held by US bank. You dont pay with gold at point of purchase you pay with USD. Keynesian fractional reserve banking - Fed creates reserve collateral out of thin air (base fiat in place of gold money) and banks use that in support of risk free lending - repo market - in our system dollars are created by bank lending, not by Fed creating reserve notes (repo collateral). Next month JNK will crash and TLT will go hyperbolic - deflation is here and the adults have already left equity and junk bonds. Hyperinflation is not possible in the US monetary system by design. It is important to understand what monetary inflation is - too many dollars competing for same or slightly higher supply - demand outstrips supply due to many dollars in circulation. Now think logically and look around - in the 70's dollar was weak and declining caused by decades of wage growth (to many dollars) wages growth decade over decade was strong and demand couldn't keep up, and banks were lending desire outstripped demand. For context at the end of the inflationary cycle in 1978 the dollar index was 84 - right now is at 95ish. The dollar will break one hundred soon - oil will drop in the near term, scream higher in intermediate and then plunge to super low numbers in Q2 as dollar demand starts to peak.
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  1731. Its also a bad digital architecture 'thing' - as TGA is one lump data set, and not pnl focused, where a specific revenue tga (payroll tax) funds specific product portfolios (safety net). And your understanding of our monetary system is child like - there is no click of the button buying LOL - bank reserves are not dollars as the Fed's repo market are closed off from real economy. Also QE (what you describe as the Fed legally cannot buy debt directly by design as we dont want to be a ponzi scheme lol) is not a requirement (where banks use cash & deposits to buy bills and bonds to then exchange at Fed for bank reserves for use in Fed repo market), meaning if you wanted to grow the real economy you would stop QE as it traps liqidity (deflationary long term as asset bubbles are no longer underpinned by collateral). The governments ability to sell debt (finance operations and products) is only possible if banks are willing to buy. Current Tbill shortfalls are due to ongoing bailout of money market funds, which is causing a major upswing in usage of MBS in OTC (outside Fed) repo markets. Overall I love your work but study the mechanics of the system that is. Literally everything I learned in MS in Fin Risk and my MBA is trash - you dont study the real system and that is and that is why Econ PhD's are toilet paper. You also fail to realize the Fed flows to TGA (meaning name of the game is to never have Treasury pay off the nut just coupons, as the Fed and US federal government own the plurality of all US denominated debt (over 33%). Nor do you understand more US denominated debt is generated offshore then domestically as the Fed has zero control over money supply or even the Fed fund rate (which is just the 2 year tbond - that is how Fed 'controls' near end). Its sort of like the wizard of oz - where the many disparate stakeholders behind the curtain vie for policies and meat puppets (jaw boning) that benefit their collective interest. Fed was never meant to be a real central bank.
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  1836. The more you win the culture war (as the far leftist nutbags are minimalized and DNC proper tries to be less nutty out of fear of losing suburban voters - a slow gradual retreat) the less conflict you will have (meaning you will start attacking each other). So to recap infighting means your winning, it also means financially many of you will lose. As less madness leads to less outrage over madness: less fuel for the outrage machine. Overall maybe go a layer deeper in your coverage? The left went through this same thing years ago - ultimately the whack jobs won and those of us who were more traditional democrats left. The question you should ask yourself is - why did the whack jobs win? Well the whackiest folk have a conspiracy true believer base, so when your normal audience walks away the one who has the crazies survives and grows. The woke folk are the qanon of the left - they won by going deeper into their own Orwellian madness when normal folks left the room (because we all have lives) - please dont let the same thing happen on this side of partisan divide (meaning you all may want to minimize the worship of the orange man, maybe cheer his work in Ohio and see him more like a Jimmy Carter type who does great things for his base and people outside of politics - just read the dispositions concerning the election from the FOX folk and no bullshit it doesnt even scratch the service. I grew up poor rural and white - self made, military officer and a decade plus in banking - i know why so many love Trump, just remember he has no allies and fails at everything in life and yeah I know his family (Jr's ex) and have met him and Eric in person at different times way back in the day. If you hitch your wagon to that cart and all the fellow crazies that worm their way into his world, 'Weekend at Brandons' will easily win in 2024).
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  1985.  @Jay_Frank  He has more then enough proof - hence the upcoming court battle; SEC is a criminal cartel that exists solely to skim from criminal actors in order to protect those actors from DOJ (racketeering). We dont have free markets due to the digital architecture of equity markets, and the overall financialization of the economy due to Fed / DTCC policy. We are effectively an oligarchy. There exist throughout the economic landscape Alternate Trading Systems - which are supported by HF algo's designed to manipulate price action in support of a clients position or subsidary funds position. Literally Hester Pierce one of the commissioners of the SEC (former aid to Sen Shelby) has charges of fraud brought against her a few years back for a ponzi scheme her and her husband were running - all profit was shuffled offshore. She recieves millions a year above table from a think tank. To further clarify my point why you better hope Musk wins - the 'Madoff Exemption' granted by the SEC over a decade ago (named after Bernie when he ran NASDAQ) allows the Market Maker to naked short - this is why Tesla's value is through the roof, the naked shorting was immense and at a certain point so expensive that the shorts had to cover - by naked shorting the price was suppressed that allowed more retail to pile in - meaning the only way to cover or close was buy back the shorted shares at insanely high prices. Same with GME and AMC - the DTCC, which shares common owners as the Fed has a product called Continous Net Settlement as part of their stock borrow program that supports naked shorting of market makers and security lending fraud (called rehypohtethication) by prime brokers.
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  2080.  @jupitereye4322 sort of but you dont understand the role of security lending has in the global economy - more importantly you dont understand the role of rehypothethication of pristine collateral as well as toxic collateral. The lack of pristine collateral - mostly due to QE like policy (MMT) - has caused insane levels of rehypothethication in order to generate liquidity needed for lending. On the flip side rehypothethication of toxic assets have created trillions in CDS (think CDO) in OTC markets. Additionally the DDTC stock borrow program has allowed the two last standing hft market makers to naked short equities into oblivion in an effort to pin and manipulate price action in support of their clients and subsidiary funds - further divorcing the financial economy from the real economy. In short the American oligarchy out of sheer incompetence and narrative driven schemes has destroyed equity markets and now they are moving on to manipulation of bonds, like locust. These morons shorted US treasuries and retail equity using Chinese and Russian bonds as collateral - now when its time to pay, they and their lenders who are on the hook are cheating, similar to 07-08, but much worse. Repeal of Glass-Steagal made retail products exist only as packaged collateral for wholesale - when wholesale collateral decays it ultimately retail who suffers. If there was anyone in BRT, Chamber, or Treasury left with any type of patriotism or intellect they would sell the ~5 tril of US bonds on the Federal governments balance sheets asap. All they would need to do is have payroll tax meet the cost of safety net and offset that tax increase by eliminating the first 3 brackets of the federal income tax and dropping corporate taxes to 10%. Having the safety net become solvent - a float based model - allows you to pump much needed pristine collateral into the system. That would be the first step required to stop this insane monetary deflation which is close to causing a global depression.
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  2154.  @jessejames5165  not really a secret society and this particular market maker is a client of primary dealers but they are all tired of his shady and dirty behavior that might reach Madhoff level duplicity; they are preparing to suffer losses due to this self involved douche. Also are current fractional reserve banking model has very little to due with Jekyll Island. And what no one ever mentions when go over that conspiracy theory is that we were a developing nation just leaving a guilded age of oligarchies - those folks literally saved the nation from collapse; even if it was deeply self serving. Morgan saved this country much more than he made off of it; much like Dimon today. Know thy enemy; they know him quite well - and I cant imagine Blackrock or Bridgewater will do a worse job as market maker and like Bear Stearns, Citadel will fall into the dust bin of history. Also dont be shocked at more shady planned events - like brokerage outages, blaming AWS or Hackers. This is about to get super dirty super quick - illegal attacks using synthetic dropping price in real time will happen again, more media outlets they own will pump propaganda, the 401k media outlets will go along out of sheer stupidity, and they paint that apes as the shorts, but yeah next step is planned outage: more psyops or dirtiness with fintech's they leverage like Robinhood - on the brightside big banks and SEC are tired of Kenny G's dirty behavior and are beginning to understand how dirty his books (electronically speaking) really are - just look at the newest rules and regs published by DTCC, NSCC, ICC, OCC, and SEC chair's recent hearing concerning order flow manipulation. With the soiled fool back in Marlago and with Loeffler losing (husband owns NYSE) and JY pretending like she doenst know him - the walls are closing in all around. Max value to squeeze is when this dirty little pig is margin called and liquidated.
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  2155. ​ @jamesmarshall3311  checkout the board of the DTCC and look at funds / market makers (prime brokerages)...it is more rigged than you think. We are living in a new guilded age; regulatory capture is just the tip. Digital economies underpinned by High Freequency trading have eliminated true price discovery. And checkout DTCC's 'obligation warehouse'; where synthetic shares (iou's go to die) and while i like Gensler alot, his hands are mostly tied. Everything he does will be slow, telegraphed and transparent to the very criminals that have the most to lose. And remember they know where we get our data and where we communicate - CLOV and others will be their new Silver ploy; they literally loaded the gun in late may/early June on many of these positions (they own large chunks of stock) similar to their crypto pump and dumps used to generate liquidity to prevent margin calls, control meat puppers on media outlets, and mess with us. We only have one real weapon...buy and hold, with some call options sprinkled in. Also, GME will most likley break first; mostly due to smaller float and whale retail folk who just buy more; plus Ryan Cohen. Media channels will dazzle you with meme stock of the day to get you to sell; if it works they will turn the volume up like entire segments - in reality they are pump and dumps where smart money gets there first and then gives talking points post pump - they badly, badly need the liquidity. Me; I just hold AMC and buy more when I can...the ticker means nothing to me, none of it is real until two triggers: short squeeze starts and you hit the sell button at your desired price - until then it is all just shadows on the wall. Also, dont be shocked if brokerages crash (fastly), or more crashing of social media platforms...they are desperate; imagine a digital Bernie Madhoff close to the end, oh and some of the money these folks may manage may not be the cleanest, why do you think so many jump when they lose it all in the end...meaning he will fight tooth and nail until the very end. He did this in 2008 with Fannie Mae and only scaled up after being let go by the Feds. They have multiple scare tactics and plays; we just have one they cant break...buy and hold, and buy more on the tasty dips.
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  2477. Sort of right but also very wrong - CCP currency is a derivative of USD (pegging, yen carry trade, etc) that is all it is. The more as you put it 'saturate' the more they are inflating that peg and make yen carry unsustainable. The real deflation is the underlying - USD denominated debt (collateral). As I told Heather and Janet prior Biden taking the oath - there would be no post lockdown recovery there would only be USD deflation that idiots in the Fed would treat as inflation as rehypothethication of existing pristine collateral that underpins liquidity is a chimera, as most collateral is built on decaying quicksand (derivatives, equity - which is rigged via ml algos, and good old fashioned ponzi schemes - 'hedged' by toxic CDSs), meaning a huge chunk of that global 300+ tril USD debt cannot be paid back and as rates rise in order to fight a nonexistent enemy, causing production grinds down and prices go up). True inflation is money supply is flooded (like DXY under 85) and tons of cash are chasing goods and services that cannot keep up as the economy runs hot, causing prices to out pace prod. True deflation is the cost of capital is so great to due scarcity of currency you produce less and charge more (in the depression wages went up and many times prod would be shuddered for weeks at a time). Its been so long that folks cant separate price v monetary inflation/deflation. As the Austrians pointed out all inflation/deflation in monetary, price to prod stats are KPIs or KRI and no one can track global dollar supply. Also if you dont understand that Fed bank reserves are not currency - you shouldn't comment on economics. Currency in our system is created via bank lending not Powell going brrrr (while reserves may prime the pump that is only true if our clients are credit worthy). BOE and others are different, but in our system credit risk is decentralized and our hollow man central bank is privately owned (by participants) but guided by public targets.
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  2568.  @moisesperez4605  It would be a mismatch of capabilities - like using a mallet to kill a butterfly. MiG's have killed Predators in the past but only when engaged. The Russian military lacks all purpose fighter - they are very centralized, silo'd and rigid - meaning you are either a bomber or fighter. The fighters would only engage predators if prompted or out of survivability. US has used Predators as bait in the past when MiG's attempted to engage. The bigger issues Russia has is tied to logistics and FMC of their aircraft and rolling stock - its paint and rust, with no real relief coming in the near future. If properly resupplied - and getting Modldova off the bench - could destroy the Russian army. They are track to lose ~10,000 + soldiers a weak (will increase if they do door to door), 140 billion USD a week (~10% of the GDP per week), hyperinflation in a month of over 40%, currency collapse, and the reality for the first time in a long time the US is looking at the reality of Russian capabilities regarding nuclear weapons: how many of their 1,600 ready to go warheads actually function? Scary thoughts - but that is what the adults in the room behind closed doors are thinking if Putin goes off the reservation even more then he already has. But I digress you want Predator's to attack convoy's or artillery / radar - not kill MiG's. Russia wants to use MiG's to hit ground targets or kill other attack aircraft. Russia is a bigger and clunkier version of Hussein's - if you want to know what they will do tactically study OIF invasion and Persian gulf war - both phases.
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  2878.  @nopenope1186  when you monetize debt to suppress interest rates you drive two outcomes that you cant escape: one, you remove risk from the financial market - currently ~15% of public traded companies are zomebies who cant survive if interest rates tick past two. Also, you make stock buy backs a better ROI than investing the real economy. Plus if all of the liquidity is trapped in the financial economy and shadow banking is more thant double the size of tier 1, 2, and 3 banks - you push out their risk curves to inifinity and beyond. You would be shocked if you realized that the majority of the stock market is nothing more than notional shares - shares used as collateral to create more shares - all driven to the moon by cheap money - not credit risk. Secondly, this drives the misallocation of resources as government spends more making the economy more inefficient. Both are due to the Fed's sheet incompetence and ivory tower shit bags who have no idea how the actual monetary system works, they focus on cure alls, swamp water, and psduo science - signaling is nothing more than theater and our Fed is only built to combat inflation, not deflation. This is also why no one in the industry respects Yellen, paper hands Powll, Bernake, SEC, etc... they are governance and act like band geeks trying to sit at the cool kids table. Shadow banking (funds) paid Yellen up the ass to come and speak to their teams; she never asked herself why; because they are running came on her silly ass - lol. And the stupidity she and the ECB and IMF are trying to pull will just make everything so much worse. In short due to the Fed there is a massive everything bubble - that is your driver of wealth inequality. If actual rates were established by the market the market would lose 20-30% of its value overnight. And Forbes' bullshit paper money list shrinks instantly. Since Greenspan those who have had assets got much richer and those who did not stayed stagnant - the Fed inadvertenly created an oligarchy.
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  2992.  @Victor-vj5ds  yes and no - lets just say aliens have never visited our planet and most sightings are future capabilities. Like F35 goes way back to late 90's. But with modern agile product development fielding is much more rapid. But scaling (operationalization) is the true pain point. And Starlink will be future IAAS - which will support DoD platforms - (think AWS in space supporting Amazon) but there already was a scaled down like system fielded around that 2015 time frame you referenced. I also think PLTR's foundry has a real future with DoD as well, maybe leveraging connectivity, storage, and transmission capabilities of Starlink? The true cutting edge capabilities are those sexy lean super sized drones equipped with lasers. No clue what powers them - maybe mini reactors, who the hell knows? I know rumorint has the their ceiling to be quite high altitude (think ICBM intercept or potentially targeting satellites). Pair that future vs modern Eagle scanner, Sea Guardian, and other small batch variants are more scalable and deployable. Similar to hypersonic weapons - no one talks about Aegis platforms taking out defunct satellites nearly a decade ago in real time. The US Navy is the most destructive force ever fielded in the history of humanity - I cant wait to see it unleashed upon the PLA. That is where much of the sexy shit truly is and most of it is unseen like our EWO capabilities. Also no one ever really talks about naval drones - those do exist and will have similar QB like model of future warfighter jets - where carrier groups will command them: from ISR to munitions at a flip of a switch.
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  3206.  @advancedvinylrepair4319  Do you think a President who is jewish - back by the full might of Israel is leading neo-nazi backed government? I mean how stupid must you people be to believe that creepy and weird narrative? It's like declaring war on America since a small subset of our nation are involved in a gang's drug dealing activity and then calling our borderline zombie President a Crypt gangbanger. Like how dumb and 3rd world are the average Russians that believe this?? Did all the smart people leave their country, I wonder why - that brain drain will only increase when that nasty civil war kicks off. Let me tell you the future - by mid end of June Russia's 22 BTG's in Izium will be logistically cutoff and start to dig in - only to find the Ukrainians will not pursue, just rain down artillery until they starve or die. By mid summer Kershon will be taken back from occupiers and the Crimea bridge will be blown, Putin will also disappear from public duties at this time. By August whats left of FSO, FSB, GRU, etc will be begging US to intervene in order to pull whats left of your army out of Ukraine in order to put down an internal uprising all throughout your nation. If it makes you feel better - T+90 from when China attempts to invade Taiwan, the majority of the Chinese Navy will be underwater and their fixed wing assets destroyed - along with many large infrastructure sites like 3 gorge dam and pieces of the north south water treatment facility. So no matter how broken you all are - at least you wont end up like Winnie the Pooh and team.
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