Comments by "And Rei" (@AndRei-yc3ti) on "If Ukraine Pulls This Off, They Could Win This Year" video.

  1. The problem with HIMARs is US itself can't keep up with the levels of ammunition usage of Ukraine. As a result its currently only supplying three days worth of HIMAR ammo (at the rate Ukraine uses it) and Lockheed Martin as at a year's backlog in production. So Ukraine has to be extremely selective in how it uses it and we can't expect the same levels of bombardment anymore
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  2. ​ @ChucksSEADnDEAD  technically speaking Kherson offensive didn't see any Ukrainian breakthroughs. Russia left on its own
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  3. ​@Preston Stewart as the Spartans reportedly told Philip of Macedon when he said "If he invades Sparta he will burn it to the ground". The response of the Spartans was "If". Same thing here.
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  4. ​ @gurhanweyrah3930  also IMF predicts 2.5% growth for 2024 of Russian economy.
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  5. ​ @tristanstebbens1358  also after the NATO document leaks, Zelensky said he won't be sharing much intel with US anymore. So there's more potential to make errors now
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  6.  @oskarjennische2490  rouble is stronger than ever and Russia never had a strong car industry anyway, so that's hardly an indicator lol. We instead are seeing an elevated amount of Chip production (Russia has its own foundry in Zelenogorod), increased military production and increasing industrial production. Also there's a big focus on training up IT specialists, which has been one of Russian strengthens. Europe is more likely to decay given how much European industry is leaving to the US/China due to high energy prices.
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  7. @Oskar Jennische  those where old expectations. IMF updated with growth forecasts in March due to stronger than expected economic performance (surprised Russian central Bank as well by all accounts)
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  8. ​ @yam2050  source on Putin or military leadership saying it's gonna last three days?
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  9. ​ @gurhanweyrah3930  Russia has multiple lines of defense and around cities going all the way to the Sea of Azov. Unless Ukraine gets a surprise attack in, it will be a grinding fight for every inch of territory.
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  10. @Oskar Jennische  ruble is on a temperorary low. Most currencies fluctuate in value - that's normal. Price roof doesn't work if most countries are not on board with enforcing it. India said it will not follow price roof and neither will China, so that kinda negates the point of it.
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  11. @Oskar Jennische  Brent crude is being sold at 85.56$/barrell today. Actually that's not true - USSR and US both had economic growth during WW2. And those are not my numbers but rather numbers by the IMF. Go bring it up with them lol
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  12.  @oskarjennische2490  indeed we will
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  13.  @ChucksSEADnDEAD  the breakthroughs weren't very deep - there was some territorial gain, but it never came close to Kherson City.
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  14. ​ @PrestonStewart  I expect Russia to severely escalate the situation should the situation in Crimea get dire. After all, losing a few recently conquered SMO territories is not as critical as access to the Black Sea plus reputational losses. If this happens I expect either mass mobilization by Russia (similar to Ukraine) and wouldn't rule out the use of tactical nukes on Ukrainian positions (if not Kiev itself) as last I read Russia had positioned tactical nuclear bombers in Belarus. I don't think we should wish for Ukraine to take back Crimea.
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  15. ​ @garyknight8616  it will likely lead to escalation by Russia up to and including use of tactical nukes on Ukrainian positions and even Ukrainian leadership
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  16. ​ @ROBOKOBAzp  а че твоё имя написано так странно? Запорожье же строилось Царицой Екатериной. Там Украиной не пахло)))
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  17. ​​ @PrestonStewart  also doubt the sanctions will affect Russian defense industry. I am already seeing alot of information (photos and videos) on telegram and open source bloggers on substance showing document evidence that Russia has managed to bypass alot of the sanctions of its defense industry through China. For example, much of the chips and LCDs it's using for its T90 tanks come from China and even have markings of specific Chinese factories. If the leaked NATO documents are to be believed, Chinese support will only increase if Russia falters against Ukraine during its counteroffensive. The sanctions may affect Russian economy as a whole (though the IMF predicts a 2.5% growth of Russian economy in 2024) but definitely not its defense industry as that's viewed as critical and Russia said it will not be cutting funds to the defense industry no matter what, it will cut pensions first before it touches the Sovereign Fund.
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  18.  @nowthisnamestaken  good call. I remembered the ending differently :)
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