Comments by "Aden Wellsmith" (@adenwellsmith6908) on "ProfSteveKeen" channel.

  1.  @johnauner671  You're talking codswallop. Printing money causes inflation, all other things being equal. You have it the wrong way round. See the equation of exchange.
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  2. Problem with Steve is he ignores the actual debts, and ignores if they are fixed rate or inflation linked.
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  3.  @MaRi-Br1984  Look at the debts. This is UK by the way. 2.5 trillion borrowed. 250 bn of ILGs. 1,000 bn of QE. The rest fixed rate. 16 trillion of inflation linked debts, pensions. Now correct, those pensions are someone's savings. They are also someone else's debt. Someone has to lose their wealth and income to pay the pensions. Can they afford it?
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  4. Another example for you, and part will be easy, part will be hard I think for you software. You can get from the DWP, a sample, scaled to actual size of the sex, age, number of years of entitlement, pension being received, for the DWP's pension debts. ie. The inputs. Can you calculate the liabilities? Sum (future pay out * risk free discount factor * probability of making the payment) The life curve is easily found from the ONS. The triple lock is harder to value in, so start with inflation only Next can you handle joint lives? That's the frightning number that economists ignore because they are playing fantasy economics. Garbage in, Garbage out
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  5. You are ignoring the elephant in the room. State debt. It's garbage in, garbage out. A game of fantasy economic starting off with. "What if the government has no debts?"
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  6. Certainly gov can get in infinite debt ======== So lets see with a thought experiment. Government says, for a £1 contribution you can get a £100,000 a day, inflation linked pension, guaranteed by the state. 100K being the price of an Aston Martin. Everyone takes them up on their offer. Not quite infinite debt, 65 million x 100,000 * 365 days in a year. So what happens? Inflation. Now that 100K becomes a million a day. After all the promise you the real resources to buy that Aston. How does the state deliver on that debt? The lesson is that fixed rate debt and inflation linked debts are different beasts.
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  7.  @GeoVestAdvisors  The big problem is the Garbage in, Garbage out. Another example is mortgages. They were sold orginally as 3 times salary. Why 3 times salary? It's not the actual rule. It just a rule of thumb used by the advertisers to say what multiple of earnings you could borrow. The actual measure was not more than 50% of after tax income, and even there that was only for the better off, because of other costs like heating and eating. Turns out in most interest rate regimes, that equates to 3 times earnings. That's the affordability measure. If interest rates are zero, then you can go to higher multiples. The real question relates to risks, if interst rates rise, Multiples of earnings is irrelevant at zero percent So notice yesterday how the level of interest rates was completely ignored, and the percentage of income being use to service the mortgage, that's ingored too because it blows the narative out of the water. Similarly, in the UK, the elephant in the room. Mass migration causes a massive increase in demand beyond the ability to build houses. So prices rocket. Ignored.
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  8. Put numbers to the public debts, and the private debts. Offset any assets. Borrowing Civil service pension State pension Nuclear clean up Losses on insurance contracts The EU Unpaid wages Unpaid invoices Expected payouts - eg post office, NHS damages. There's a list for the UK. Similar everywhere else. Let me start you off. Borrowing. Total Amount Outstanding (including inflation uplift for index-linked gilts) = £2,536.31 billion nominal That's ths morning. Where are the numbers for the other debts for the state. 30% of tax goes on the debts, minimum
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  9.  @MaRi-Br1984  See, you are just worried about the money owed to bankers, not the money owed to peasants.
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  10.  @MaRi-Br1984  It is. Look at QE. Where's the money gone? What you do is you go and look at the Asset Purchase Facility Ltd. It's on company house, check the accounts and see what its done with the money and what the net effect is.
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  11. 16 trillion pounds of socialist pension debt. But your models don't take that as an input so its garbage in garbage outl
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  12. So here's a challenge for you. Double entry question. The state receives £1000 from Mr I'm a Peasant for his old age pension. One year's NI. What entries do you make in the accounts? The state receives £10,000 in NI from Mr I'm middle class for his old age pension. One year's NI. What entries do you make in the accounts? Are you going to use the Bernie Maddoff School of accounting loved by economics professors, and civil servants, or the real numbers What entries do you make a year later?
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  13. So Steve, why are you playing fantasy economics? A game where you say, what if we ignore all the really big debts and assume that the only debt is the money owed to bankers? It's case of GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out. How big are Social Security debts in the US? Assets we know are zero, since the government can't owe the government and make an asset.
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