Youtube comments of Black_Triton (@black_triton9264).
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Fun Fact: out of all the territories occupied by the 3rd Reich, only Serbia, Poland and Greece did not raise Waffen SS units.... However, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Bulgaria, Albania, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary, Romania, and Ukraine did. Let's call it the first EU π€£
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@nilloc93Β if you were one of the authors of the video, thanks for taking the time to reply.
The whole thing (the offensive) was under-resourced. But I suppose political pressure "to show a return on our investment" doomed . No wonder Zaluzhnyy distanced himself from this and, in the aftermath, said "no nato army would have attempted what we did but we had a gun to our heads". Nato should have put the brakes on this. As their credibility was on the line once the blame storming began. You'll recall the defensive statements the US made like we told them not to this or that.
You, me, the media were all correct about the under-resoursing of combat support. Especially in the engineering eqpt dept, IMHO. Yes, they knew minefields were there. The major journalism outlets told us all about them. Yet there were much, much more which UA commanders found to be of unbelievable density. This is where I why I made the comment of being unprepared for Russian defence.
The opsec was criminal. Months in advance saying what they were going to do: thru the front line, to Tokmak, to Sea of Azov. The UA even made video trailers for the big show! On the other hand, we are always left speculating about what the Russians are going to do until we see it unfolding. Often missing out on identifying the shaping phase of their ops.
It seems that the only strength (hope) the UA counted on was their superior moral shocking the low moral, drunken, incompetent, under armed and supplied orc army which would flee before the onslaught. Complete fantasy.
Comparing US and Iraq... please. It was like beating up an unconscious drunk. Unfortunately, that became the validation for US doctrine to then be similarly applied to peer/near peer scenarios.
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I like that you are attempting to compare best/worst case scenarios.
1. "RU has an advantage in equipment and ammo". While that is true, the RU, in the 2nd year of the SMO, also have an advantage in manpower. 650k troops in the SMO area. UA is around 200k. Arty ammo production is 3.5M rounds/yr. US/EU combined is 400K rds/yr.
2. Satellite imagery shows that RU is building new defence plants. So they are not capped out. Where are the new NATO defence facilities? Just talk.
3. "RU is spending its SAVINGS". While the US and EU are growing their debt. If RU had to, don't you think they'll go to debt/govt bonds, too?
4. UKR defence production? WTF is that? A fraction of pre war levels π
5. "In the 2nd yr of the war, RU is on the offensive". False. 2023 was characterized by the defeated UA counter-offensive. RU is, as you later slip, is in an Active Defence phase. The Bakmut and Adiivka operations were more about attrition operations. Adiivka has the added political imperative of stopping the shelling of Donetsk which has been happening since 2014.
6. The Ukr supply chain has dried up. It's never going to be as good as winter of 22/23 pre counter-offensive.
6. Let me fix your "pessimistic scenario". Due to casualties and continued real military failures, more UA units refuse combat, civilian demonstrations increase, zelensky is forced out and the RU reach the Dniepr and take Odessa. The new Ukr leader signs capitulation. Ukr does not join NATO, all its heavy weapons including western equipment is handed to RU and the UA is capped at 100k internal security troops. Most NATO members don't actually make good on their announced defence increases due to populations not wanting to give up established generous social benefits. This causes collapse of NATO. US, UK, Australia, NZ and Can formalize their current arrangement into a new alliance. The remainder become members of the currently planned EU Army.
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Β @Princip666Β I hear you about TY. Although Mr. Puckhead also deletes my comments from time to time. "The arena of ideas" π
"Western heads exploding" π great line. But who is this western leadership dream team? biden, blinken, austin, scholz, bierbock, vanderleyen, boris the clown johnson, the sun king macron and blaqueface trudeau. Mental midgets paired up against putin and lavrov.
But seriously, Russia doesn't want or need the non-russian part of ukr. What they have now represents 40% of ukr's GDP. Should they go to the Dniepr River and Odessa, and I think they will, it will be 60% of the GDP?
What if Poland, Hungary and Romania want their parts of Western ukr back? That would have more heads exploding π
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You need to look at Rybar's #s closer: 536K IRRECOVERABLE losses.
28K POW + 62K MIA + 214K KIA = 303K.
The remaining 236K are so injured cannot return to service. By UA interviews, we see that 8 of 10 casualties are due to artillery. With the increased use of FABs for the last two months, this ratio is probably higher now and going forward into the future. Germany alone has sent 60,000 prosthetic limbs as of early 2023...
Conversely, if we know that UA has a significant artillery deficiency, then it would hold true that the RU losses would be commensurate with the arty fires casualty rate.
If you average 750 UA casualties per day, which is roughly what RU MoD says, over 24 mths, you get 540K.
I tend to agree with the Mediazona #s on RU KIAs. Its a pro-UA project but i feel they are being pretty careful about their integrity. Smart.
The Oryx database of RU tank/AFV losses, on the other hand, is a fatally flawed NAFO info ops project.
A new site, ualosses .org was created just last December. So they have a lot of catching up to do on their OSINT data. A WHOIS look up of the site lists the site owner as a Toronto IT company 1337 Services LLC formed in July, 2012.
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Kofman is an idiot. Full of hopium and empty on reality.
"Hold, Build, Strike" sounds alot like the failed strategy in Afg "Clear, Hold, Build". So much for "re-imagining success" π
"Russia could take a break, rearm and come back in a year". Smells like the rationale behind the Minsk agreements π€
The legacy tanks, T55/62 were sent to the LPR/DPR forces not to main Russian forces who use T72/80 and mostly T90s.
Russian quality is NOT going down. Their army now is better and bigger than the first day of the war.
"Manpower is over-rated" πππ
Ms. Ashford: "Ukr was not as successful as they wanted". The UA was soundly DEFEATED. They only dented the Russian security zone (like a crumple zone in a car) in 1 or 2 places. "Defence is easier than offense", then why is the UA taking more casualties in the defence than RU attackers in Mariopul, Bakhmut, Adiivka.... what secret ingredient was Russia come up with? Shovels?
And yes, Ms. Ashford, you will have to work hard to sell that Ukraine is winning. Real hard. , for one, am looking to the post war "mission accomplished" spin. And that she says that Ukraine will join "European Institutions" (NATO) is the crux of the problem. And Russia will continue to pound that idea out of Ukrainian skulls until the UA collapses or the Kiev regime agrees to it in a war termination negotiation.
In Kerson, the Russians caused 30k casualties on UA then they pulled out overnight. Across a major river. That's a major feat. They decided that the risk to supplying the Western bank had more risks than benefits. In Kharkov, yes, the Russians were not dug in. But these were Rossgardia (gendarmerie forces) not soldiers. Yet they inflicted 20k casualties on UA with long range fires. And they sent their VDV (airborne) forces to assist and cover Rossgardia troops withdrawal with light casualties. The ground they can get back later. This is what a retrograde operation looks like. UA has never been able to pull one off.
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@buckplug2423Β UA got HARMs well before the summer offensive. Retrofitted on MiG29. Other areas where RU has advantages: EW, counter-drone, long range missiles and drones, reconnaissance-fire complex, artillery, logistic chain, Ka52, #s of tanks, IFVs, trucks and aircraft of every type, FABs, and for the first time starting early 2023 a numerical superiority in manpower. And RU's latest advantage is that Syrsky is commander of UA...
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