Comments by "rejvaik" (@rejvaik00) on "Ukraine War Updates Part 3: What’s Next for Russia || Peter Zeihan" video.

you just stumbled upon a common saying it's called "the generals are always fighting the last war"
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He's not defending the Russian position he's just telling you where the Russians are coming from The Russians will never ever stop wanting to advance further West until they have control of those territories which comprise most of the great European plain he's simply saying that you just can't break them of that medieval mindset without something majorly happening in the Russian government
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It's not a argument that's a good one it's just an argument that Russia themselves makes No one is agreeing with Russia and their 18th century style of security through conquest and annexation
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He's not saying that they will he's just presenting a hypothetical scenario But that is what Russia wants, Russia wants a vast control of annexed territory that covers up the majority of the European plain because they feel it's the only way to be secure and it's completely stupid it's obsolete medieval way of thinking but it's Russia's way of thinking And so they keep pushing for it regardless of how many times they fail at it Russia and it's predecessor state the Soviet Union has done nothing but poorly in every single war it's had had since the 1980s From 80s Afghanistan to 1996 Chechnya to 2008 Georgia and now to 2022 Ukraine
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It wouldn't be a "checkmate" but it would finally end overt boots-on-the-ground style of actual warfare in Ukraine by the Russians Which still is a very good thing and I agree and I think Ukraine also agrees that once this war ends they will b-line it to the NATO membership line faster than Usain bolt running on a giant griddle covered in butter Meaning that once they're in NATO Russia can't do anything overtly and they will have to just do covert and subversion tactics which hey I'm all for battling them in the covert and subversion space because it's less damaging that way
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The same thing as what that happened in Ukraine in 1991 when it gained independence the new nations will inherit the physical access to that arsenal Russia or rather more correctly the Soviet Union has never given out any of its codes or procedures for launch to any of the satellite nations when it was a conglomeration of the Soviet republics Meaning even if Russia today collapsed and new nations were born out of it none of them can independently launch any of those weapons All they can do it just maintain physical control to the sites that have access to them
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@grzegorzkapica7930 Unlikely yes, but still a possibility as you said The fail-safes that are built into those mechanisms are top-notch and just because you've purchased the weapon and brought it over to your new country doesn't mean it's going to operate perfectly Especially if you don't have the know-how documentation that was kept in the Kremlin and didn't come included in your purchase
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@grzegorzkapica7930 Also not to mention selling those types of weapons is an international crime and your hypothetical country and its current leader would be placed at the top of the list to be hunted down and destroyed or removed from power And further since you can't actually operate any of those weapons that you inherited as a hypothetical breakaway Nation from Russia you don't have any means of deterrence from US coalition led army or a special forces strike team coming in to take out that leader that's trying to broker the sale of the weapon
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@grzegorzkapica7930 Yes but that's still an international crime the trade of weapons-grade nuclear material is controlled down to the gram But yes if you are a tin-pot dictator and you want to try your hand at making some money you can certainly make the attempt at selling that type of stuff but you again will find yourself placed on a list and you will become a target
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@grzegorzkapica7930 in that hypothetical scenario of a new nation inheriting Russian nukes it's much better to do what Ukraine did when they gained independence in 1991 in two years since that event in 1993 they brokered a deal to give all those weapons back to the successor state of the Soviet Union, Russia They did not want them in their country anymore and again they were pretty much useless to the Ukrainians as they could not launch them and they cannot use them as a means of deterrence And they did not want to ever be placed under any international sanctions or face an international coalition led army because they attempted to sell them to other states
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I mean you're right but you're thinking logically and often dictators like Putin don't think logically when they are backed into a corner The possibility of a nuclear threat is there because it will always be there but I do think it's unlikely What's ironic is that the simple fact that Russia has nukes is the one and only reason why the United States and NATO members haven't sent in conventional forces boots-on-the-ground style to assist Ukraine directly If they did they'd be crushing Russia and Ukraine would be free of Russian forces in its territory already, so essentially nukes are saving Putin's ass 🤣 They are the one thing that's preventing a much stronger response from the West to the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict
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No they don't need to go nuclear themselves just they need to go and join NATO asap once the war ends and then by extension they'll be under the United States' and NATO nuclear armed members' (France and Britain) umbrella
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I mean you're catching him in his part 3 of a hypothetical scenario buddy he already said all the stuff of what is known and unknown a few videos ago There's no reason to discredit him or laugh at him because of what he saying I mean it's hypothetical scenario discussion there's not much to it educated guesses is all that's in play
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