Comments by "serafina costa" (@serafinacosta7118) on "China’s New $6B Railway in Laos: Massive Debt Trap or Megaproject Success? | WSJ Breaking Ground" video.

  1.  @alantoamos1924  US Federal debt is tallied at USD 30 trillion . And then , Social Security disbursements and Medicare entitlements for the next 30 years is set to surpass USD 110 trillion, at present value. Social security abd Medicare are fully funded, however … 1.All of those 110 trillion are in US debt , bonds , notes . Or simply put , on IOUs. 2. The above referenced figures are not accounted for , as they should, using GAAP accounting standards. Money is being swept under the rug by the Federal Government. 3.Your tax dollars are earmarked to cover debt service payments only. 4. Over nine million Americans live abroad. Permanently. Even if you discount military personnel, embassies , corporate personnel , there is a lot living abroad. The overwhelming majority are , retireees…..escaping US high cost of living. 5. I am not your bro. Learn to write properly.
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  2. A daring proposition. I wonder who pays his salary.
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  3.  jordie4423  it is a USD $1,5 billion pegged to Chinese Currency. The big if is whether it was built to last, which often Chinese builders fall short to deliver . And who collect dues on freight and shuffling people around. Railroad building projects anywhere in the world are sunk cost projects that take up many years to recover. What matters is what they bring in tangible results. Since you do not know the numbers , nor you are capable to execute revenue projections , your political bias has little to no value on this discussion. One does not have to sing the Commie Song to realize the positive results on these type of projects.
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  4. Thanks for bringing into perspective.
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  5. Answering a riddle with a question. This is the smartest and well edited post reply I’ve seen in ages. You should get a door prize from the WSJ.
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  6. For as long as the rail lines and buildings can outlast debt payments , Laotians should do fine. Meaning. .. no tofu projects.
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  7.  @vlhc4642  mostly bad. Misspent. All in entitlement programs , welfare , wars, pork barrel, bribes. Not a cent on concrete , iron , copper.
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  8.  @xiphoid2011  not predatory lending. A billion, even for Laos is more of a lifeline than a burden. Far from chump change, thought. There will be increased investment and general consumer output. Which is a pattern when Yiu throw a few infra structure dollars. Freight pays the bill. Train fare might end up being subsidized. All you need is some uproar bybthe populace and the Chinese party bosses will buckunder pressure. Also , this is not a dollar denominated debt. Chinese money is Monopoly money. Not tradeable. And BRIC is doomed to failure. The downside … Laotian will be under Chinese subjugation. As they already are.
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  9. The pundits used the same argument when America invaded Afghanistan. No oil. But under that pile of rocks lies untold riches in mining . Only they forgot to post it on memo. Nobody ever saw the US survey services to appraise those piles of rock as they lent support to the Mujahedin fighters to expel those pesky Russians.
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  10. Setting up your tent to pitch Ponzi schemes huh ?
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  11. Shame on WSJ. For airing this tendentious piece. As if everyone here did not grasp basic finance. Totally an infantilized narrative. These debt covenants are not to be fully repaid . The Chinese financiers and party bureaucrats ( both are the same , just a fancy title to gloss over ) are just currying favors to keep Laos in the fold. If borders them, they are motivated to extend their rail lines. With that , they stretch their geopolítical tentacles. This is a sunk cost project. Notice Burma and Buthan , just as poor as Laos , did not get the invite. No rail lines to them , as far as I know of. What the Chinese bureaucrats and top leaders see is just an opportunity to control the economic and land development of an extension of their empire. The Russians have done the same through Ukraine. They ran the gas pipeline through the country , and before the war broke out , they were in the hook , on rights of way rental payments , to the tune of USD 1,5 billion per year. With the war, they have the perfect excuse to stiff the Ukrainian government in owed rent. With the Chinese , debt covenants are structured so they take over the rail line if the Laotian Government goes into default on loan repayments. So the Chinese go from sinking their Mickey Mouse money while paying no rent , and are primed to collect management fees , collecting freight revenues, interest payments , assuming Laotians don’t meet their targets on cash flow and debt amortization. One billion, six billion dollars are converted exchange figures. Repayments and sunk costs are all pegged to the Chinese currency. This deal is all but too common in the US. It’s the equivalent of debt securitization. The difference being , under a securitization structured deal, every first collected dollar goes towards the lender. The Chinese know this is how it will end up , only they structured the contract to allow the Laotians to allow themselves the repayment option. The moment the Laotians get behind payments , the Chinese will revert this as a securitization deal. The other difference …. The Chinese are not selling this investment in the open market as a bond offering or something similar. They are keeping it to themselves , after all this deal is way too good to share with others. Laos economy will explode and the Chinese will reap. Alone. Don’t blame the Chinese. They took their cues from American Financiers. China as a country might be set to implode. But China Inc. , that is a whole new ballgame. Do you want to know the logic behind this rationale ? Americans left Afghanistan in haste , fully knowing the country’s riches ( from way back early 90’s when military aide came in tow with the boys from the US Survey Services ). Barely the last American plane took off and Al Jazeera had just put out a documentary on how little Chinese businessmen,no party officials yet, are flocking into the country to secure investment deals , sometimes with the blessing of the Taliban. Building placed out of the nowhere. Democracy be danmed. America ain’t what used to be.
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  12.  @RidwanGosal  rail lines in places where there were none, always bring in dividends. You just can’t quantify it on a short term basis. It takes years, if not decades , to realize changes and reap benefits. It’s a sunk cost type of investment.
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