Comments by "serafina costa" (@serafinacosta7118) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Most of the Brazilian grown wheat is done at the State of Rio Grande do Sul prairies ( except for the Serra Gaúcha region known for its winemaking , it reads as Gaúcha Mountain Range ) , which borders Argentina. So , in the plains, they are either grazing cattle ( the Hereford European variety mostly ) , or growing cash crops , wheat being one of them. In the Deep South , most farm land are smaller acreages , comprised by and large of family farms, whose output is sold through agricultural cooperatives. A lot of those Gaucho families ended up North , and in places such as Mato Groseo, Goiás , and even Northeast. In the central part of Brazil , there is warmer and humid climate, over the cerrado plains. The cash crop of choice is soybeans , for animal feed, food production , and exports. We get our wheat supply , mostly for domestic consumption , either grown at home , or imported from Argentina and Uruguay. I am not sure what strain is grown in Brazil, but the Southern climate is cold during winters. There are not deep florests there , so air humidity , while not dry, does not hinder traditional wheat harvesting. The cold winters are augumented by a bone cutting windshield , known as “ minuano “. If you know anything about Brazilian Gauchos is that they can grow anything they want out of scant resources. They are the types that hold down , face the odds, and get most of any land they get their hands on. On the dry Northeast States , plagued by droughts , with plenty Northeast migrant families leaving barren land behind , Gauchos would buy those plots , and before you know they would be harvesting water melons. And then there is well funded Brazilian research on agricultural and animal research. I am sure , in Rio Grande do Sul , Universidade de Santa Maria does a swell job in turning out quality research and grads. Yet, the most advanced production on research and grads are in places such as ESALQ ( Escola Superior de Agricultura Luís de Queiroz ) , on Piracicaba -SP, and Universidade Federal de Lavras , on the state of Minas Gerais. Those two alone can match or beat any American University with an Agricultural Science Program. Hands down. So Peter , you are overdue to get your arse in Brazil.
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  2. Grandpa was a wise man.
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  3. You got Brazil on spot at this turn.
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  4. Not sure if would work in Africa. It takes plains m seasonal climate , prediction go rain fall, a mesh of roads and rail roads , and those bribe seeking officials at borders would have to go away. Wheat planting and harvesting requires combines , and other specialized agricultural machinery. It’s not about labor costs. It’s about infra structure , arable land , subsidized interest loan programs , and a low cost of doing business. You have to overcome a whole litany of issues that are pertinent to different African countries , sometimes with conflicting interests amongst themselves , and that is just before the first seed is ever planted in the ground. Even with the Chinese dolling out money like there is no tomorrow , they have to have all ducks in the row. And even if the Chinese managed to get people talking to one another , then you have to pray other powers are not spilling discord to sabotage China’s efforts, a dogging problem in Africa over decades.
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  5. Off the bat…. Auto parts manufacturing Appliances Apparel Rubber products & eslastomers ( including tire manufacturing ) Plastic materials ( sheets, pellets )
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  6. To soon
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  7. Buying Chrysler means either buying the brand owned by Stellantis , or buying the holding itself. Citroen , Peugeot , Fiat, Opel, Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram, Vaxhuall .
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  8. They certainly approved for billions of dollars towards Israel each and every year.
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  9. This from one living in Brazil for the past ten years….. Brazil : Hoping to catch some train going somewhere that can be a market for our commodities. Way Before this BRICS became the hype of the moment , we used to trade outside the dollar on a barter system, whenever the chance presented itself. This materialized with Iraq in the early eighties. We took their crude , and then we shipped VW Passats , frozen poultry , and sent engineering firms to build infrastructurethrrd. M Russia : Bankrupt and irrelevant India : Our competition. We haven’t trade any significant amounts with them, and likely won’t. China : Hoping to hijack the dollar to have the world to bankroll their unfinished projects. Since the Renmibi or yuan is worthless outside China , this group formation is probably their best hope to get their agenda going. South Africa: The Chinese are courting them since Australia soured on them and joined the US. Yet, the US represents a sizeable market for South Africans ( De Boers, Wineries, Tourism ).
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  10.  @ryankuypers1819 you are confusing national defense against wars of invasion. To anyone’s account , no US territory has been invaded since the Pilgrims set foot in America. All of the propaganda verbiage can’t refute that. Outside the Civil War, and the Mexican-American War, all US involvement on wars has been waged abroad. Europe , Pacific , Vietnam , Middle East , Afghanistan. Those were expansionist wars ( including the Mexican-American War ). Doing the deed for powerbrokers , not for the American People.
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  11. You are right. I remember once seeing a Russian Reality Show ( with all that drama that goes in it ) at a tank refurbishing facility where they gut the armory and redid hidraulics , wiring, controls , the tracks. Obviously it was for show , they won’t tell you how much looting has taken place on those contracts. The practice in the US was known as “pork barrel “ ( the $10,000 latrines ).
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  12. Nonsense. The type of land that lends to wheat growing is in the southern tip , by Rio Grande do Sul. At best, they would grow it by the Midwest on Cerrado, where soybean, rice , and other varieties already have harvests. Or are geography and culturally challenged. Blame your educational system and Reaganomics.
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  13. Strong agriculture breeds strong manufacturing. Food production, machinery building , storage , roads , trucks , trains, steel mills. That is the ABC of civilizations.
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  14. Wishful thinking and a fools dream. You are hoping for a miracle.
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  15.  @warfarenotwarfair5655 . What tax payer ? The amounted of collected Federal levies barely covers interest payments.
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  16. Noticed that too. And I am not even Dutch.
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  17. I meant spot on.
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  18. If you are going to start with this nonsense , why not attack the Greeks owning Pizza Parlors in New England? Or Dinners between PA and New England? Or the Patels from India owning most limited and economy service branded hotels ? Or Vietnamese owning Doughnut Shops in California ? It’s the nature of the migrant mindset. If you run something profitable , others will find out from the graoevine and jump at it. Enough with the xenofobia already
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  19. You have to deal with Brazilians to begin with, and coupled with the notorious Brazilian Bureaucracy , it could make it very difficult in opening the floodgates. They claim to be hospitable , but in many cases they practice just the opposite It was fashionable to host Ukranians , but they did in limited scale, and local Ukranian Churches did most of the lifting They done ok , in letting in Syrians and Palestines , due to the heavily based Arab diaspora ( mostly Syrian-Lebanese ) Haitians, Afghans, Venezuelans, Bolivians have bore the brunt of the unwelcoming treatment. The Chinese just came in, and they are still seen with indiference and resentment by some. The Koreans made it a long ago, and they are thriving. The Cuban Doctors brought in by Dilma got turned away by Bolsonaro.
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  20. Now we’re talking. At last, some factual input. Thx.
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  21. They already practice rotational growing techniques in Brazil. Two of the world’s top universities in Agricultural Science are in Brazil. ESALQ and Lavras.
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  22. And anyone returning from the battle fields might add up fuel to the discontent.
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  23.  @weslleypinto they are clueless. They still think we speak Spanish , and that are jungles everywhere.
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  24. At the very least you expanded on your remark. Most here shoot from the hip on a single sentence. And kudos for you for breaking into readable paragraphs. We have some rant bugs here who are off the charts.
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  25. Say who ? You ? Have you seen a Chinese EV firsthand ? Have you ever been to a Chinese EV assembly plant ? Sure, keep getting your feel good koolaid from your media.
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  26. For Peter , on Brazilian rail. Just for your notes…. The original rail lines implemented were British Engineered , first to date , 1854, inaugurated by D. Pedro II, the very first tracks , Estrada de Ferro Petrópolis, connecting the Rio’s shipping port from Porto Mauá towards Fragoso, and had about under 10 miles. Fast forward , the first successfully laid tracks ran from the City of Campinas , São Paulo , through Jundiaí ( today still a logistic hub ) , through São Paulo ( Luz Rail Stop , a Victorian British built relic , today a commuter rail and subway transportation hub ) , spearheaded the growth in cities such as Santo André and Sao Caetano ( latter ABC manufacturing hub ) , and descending upon the slopes of Cubatão basin ( Brazil’s second large scale steel mill then financed through government bonds , plus a number of chemical and fertilizer manufacturing plants ) , towards the Santos Sea Shipping port. Later became known as RFFSA’s Santos-Jundiai. Built and financed by British investors , whose concession was latter , post war , transferred to the Brazilian Federal Government. Another separate track width was latter built towards Sorocaba’s manufacturing hub ( Toyota eventually built a large assembly plant there many decades past then ). It left another Magnificent rail stop in São Paulo, actually a few single digit miles from São Paulo’s Luz Rail Stop. It was known as Estrada de Ferro Sorocabana. North end to end destinations were first viable to haul coffee beans , and passenger lines were latter incorporated to these lines. Todays they still haul , through private leases , Orange Juice Concentrate, rolled steel plates , soybean, corn. On the way towards Sorocaba there is Votorantin , a town that lodged a large scale Cement processing plant , part of an old money conglomerate known as Indústrias Votorantin holding.. The late abd second generation owner , Antonio Ermírio de Moraes became the embodiment of a Brazilian Robber Baron , also a well know Filantropist, whose contributions bankrolled the growth off network non profit Hospitals , the Beneficiencia Portuguesa. Today’s Brazilian rail is fragmented , some times due to desinvestiment, other times featuring regional growth in regions such as the far north near the Amazon , or by the Cerrado’s hinterlands ( State of Mato Grosso) , through São Paulo and Paraná. There is much to do to rebuild the entire system , who started failing apart by the late 70’s. Changing the lines , a good read on Brazilian of late XX century , politics and history , I do recommend Thomas Skidmore’s books. He I’d , or was , a well known Brazilianist.
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  27. Chinese car makers can simply export CKD kits towards Mexico for a vehicle’s final assembly . Somehow I figure their attorneys read the revised NAFTA agreements to sort out what locally made means. The biggest problem is not exporting to Mexico. It is gaining NHTSA approval to have them sold in the US. And setting up franchised dealerships. Given how the big three have been screwing dealers lately , they could make an end run at those dealers. And if they embrace the aftermarket, unlike Tesla , they win hearts and wallets from Americans. That and the retaliatory measures they can do. Such as shutting Tesla’s factory in Xanghaj and keeping the plant. . Now Elon’s visit to China starts making more sense. He must’ve performed many oral services to party bosses in China.
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  28. The problem with hauling gold to convert into usable currency is that you always end up getting fleeced by the local pros. You never get full value when sitting at the table across your central bank official , or worse, dealing with traders.
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  29. None. Brazilian wheat alone is not enough to meet Brazilian domestic demand. We have to make up shortages by taking Argentinian and Uruguayan surplus.
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  30. None of his featured videos broaches politics , if only ever so slightly. He avoids the temptation. He is a public persona. Better avoid to get into political debate. It would only hurt his prospects at speaking engagements. Leave local politics banter to locals. Besides , Californians only have themselves to blame for their fate.
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  31. Only, in the case of Brazil , most of the soybean crops are grown in the center / southeast regions , specifically Cerrado ( State of Goiás, Mato Grosso , Mato Grosso do Sul ) , Paraná . Very little is coming from the Amazon region , at best from the State of Rondônia . Capillarity in road infrastructure , rail lines , silage, all at minimum, are obstacles to industrial scale in the region. True , Brazil relies heavily on Fertilizers ,crops like sugar cane, soybeans , corn , eat up over 70% if fertilizer consumption in Brazil. And Fertilizer Provessors do import 23% of fertilizer raw materials from Russia. On the flip side , water pockets availability overmatches what is available in Continental US, a fact you never bring up.
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  32. On the quasi continental US, geography isn’t even part of the curricula at the public school systems nationwide . The American system has national standards , but funding is highly regionalized , so curricula consistency beyond reading and math is very uneven. Reading maps , knowing trivia country / Capital , a knowledge infused at home , very seldom is practiced on US households. That being the ABCs , it then evolves to GEO economics , climate patterns , type of vegetation and all of that is highly individualized knowledge only driven by one’s desire to learn. Geopolitics is the advanced form of this learning curve. Just don’t feel bad, and ignore the sneering remarks of “ Americans are Geography Iliterate”, mostly spouted or sneered from Europeans. If only Mr Zeihan’s rise in popularity soars , then American Educators might pay more attention to Geopolitics and start to consider Geography as a standard mandatory curricular subject . Your admission is a positive step, no less.
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  33. There are a very few places in the world geothermal works. Usually in places once known for volcanic activity. It takes a lot of heat generation to move turbines. In the Azores Archipelago Portugal , specifically Saint Michael Island , their power is geothermal. Any place known for hot springs might be a candidate. Outside of such places , it is impossible to make it feasible. So it is a niche power source.
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  34. Now that is a perspective worth saying.
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  35. Just noises. Nothing to it. No unfolding of events. A few Presidential handshakes , lots of photo ops. The dollar took a hit in Brazil , dipping below the 1:5 ratio it has been for years. Last I read it was at 4.9. Blame on the expansion of the monetary base, which has a lag to hit overseas forex markets.
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  36. So, he is going to give the goods on the very same organization that provides him with his nuggets. Yeah right.
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  37. Brazilians alone consume lots of wheat. Anything made of wheat for retail ( beer , bread , pastries , fast food ) is turned into cash. We do not export much of it. We actually import from Argentina , Uruguay.
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  38. It is a lucrative racket. Indian hoteliers love military bases. Great cash flow. Not huge rates , but keeps the rooms filled up.
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  39.  @TheDuravida  wars cost largest sums of money. They don’t have a strong tax base. Outside 3-4 cities , there is not much in terms of diversified economies. Their defense contractors can’t come up with anything that works in the battlefield. Whatever is shipped out , is expensive and less effective. They had German businesspeople do actually make their agribusiness to go anywhere. In fact, they offered land go Afrikaans so they could get people to produce anything. Anywhere you see in their vast wastelands , infrastructure is either non existent , or falling apart. Debt to GDP means squat, if you don’t have an economy that generates strong currency.
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  40.  @TheDuravida  There are plenty of commodities rich countries that can’t generate wealth. Commodities are subject to wide price variations and often don’t yeld any amount of distributed wealth as countries where manufacturing and intelectual property rights make up for the bulk of generated wealth. Also mining and oil prospecting are directly and adversely affected by capital inflows. The Russian prorated war will suffer from capital inflows, whether through reserves or foreign capital injection. Classic examples … Commodity Rich , Low Wealth Distribution Venezuela ( crude , they can barely refine what they extract ) Any Sub Saharan Country short of South Africa Russia Federation ( scant manufacturing, if you account for foreign subsidiaries that were shutdown ) Commodity Poor , improved wealth distribution Japan Germany Switzerland Portugal Singapore South Korea Israel Yes, the Russians are going broke. Thanks to a completely unnecessary war. Banking on Russian Federation to be an equity partner with other countries within the BRICS block won’t bode well for neither one of the proposed members. It’s the equivalent of Germany having to bailout Greece through the European Union for Greece’s own misdeeds. Not a good outlook.
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  41.  @420247paul  you mean .., they do not welcome your investments. They will squander your dollars. Keep your hard earned money at home.
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  42. Good deed. Twitter and Facebook , we can live without them. I do.
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  43. You have points. If only you could break your paragraphs into a smaller set of sentences ….
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  44. Yes, the one who will sell State Owned Enterprises. Fat chance.
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  45. All of the sudden , someone and everyone is finding lithium in their backyard. Sounds like a tail of Jethro finding oil on his patch and moving the family to Beverly Hills. Stop dancing you fools.
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  46.  @Leftatalbuquerque  My dear Canadian poster… My clueless guess about the stretch on arable Canadian land on Canada that does not cut into the Nation of Tribes includes Alberta ( part of it ) , Winnipeg , the heavily agricultural use lands in Atlantic Provinces ( including Saint Edward Islands , New Foundland , and Nova Scotia ) . Not sure about The Pacific Coast, and I plead ignorance about the Canadian Rockies. Most of those 360 km from the American border are either in Agriculture ( Quebec ) or being claimed to urban sprawl , as 80% of Canada’s population lives there. Parts of Ontario that once held florest, even 40-40 years ago , are grown to be infill urban sprawl. That is Mississauga, Windsor, for sake of an example. That above amounts to the little I know about Canada , and I stand to be corrected. Now onto Brazil…. Patches of land that are being razed for illegal logging and cattle ranching are in Amazon , on public land , and yes , that alone spells ecological disasters . One of the menbers of the actual cabinet is blocking oil drilling at the Amazon River basin, against the wishes of Petrobras. Search Marina da Silva. She might look like your garden variety cleaning maid , but she is one though cookie on environmental policies. The Amazon basin , with its top soil, is not suitable for wheat harvesting. The overwhelming stock of Brazilian cash crops are grown in the following states : Rio Grande do Sul ( where’s most of our domestic wheat comes from ) Paraná ( what, soybeans , coffee is long gone , corn ) Santa Catarina ( orchards ) São Paulo ( clay soil good for Sugar Cane , orange orchards , other fruits , corn , dairy and other varieties , potatoes , bananas , tea ) Mato Grosso ( North and South ) /Goiás ( beef cattle , soybeans , rice , beans , sorghum ) Minas Gerajs ( Coffee , dairy cattle ) Espírito Santo - tropical fruits Bahia - tropical fruits , cacau , dendê Oil , coconuts, cashews The entire Northeast coastal States. Which is sun baked , and a few years ago , growing anything in its hinterlands ( read Sertão and Caatinga ) was a challenge. Now, with ditches at the São Francisco River, local agriculture has grown by leaps and bounds. The Amazon ( Amazonas, Para , and Maranhão ) is awful , even with built roads. You have issues with logistics , not all roads are paved or are in dire need of reoairs , and then half of the year pours rain every day of the rainy season. Can’t grow any type of wheat variety there , period. Most of the land boat to cities like Manaus and Belem come in by boat, and they bring in native harvested fruit species, nuts ( the Brazilian nut you buy at your grocery store is called Castanha do Pará ) , and fresh water fish you haven’t fathomed to exist )). May I suggest that your passport ready, book your flight ticket , kiss your dear ones goodbye , budget and plan to spend at least a year crisscrossing the country. Until then , you will have no clue and you are out of your debt. Not your fault. You just need extra polishing.
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  47.  @snarky_user  you nowhere close. You started talking about Africa , which was your implied suggestion. And all of the sudden you are talking America. American freight railroads work, period. African Rail , it took the Chinese to build them, because nothing out there works.
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  48. He lumps with the European Union. Which Ireland is part off. Lobby him hard enough , and he will give due attention.
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  49. For as long as he can read the comments and fact check them to further adjust his predictions , no damage is done. He has made adjustments over his bullish outlook in Argentina in recent past after our collective outcries. After all no one is perfect. Even Nostradamus. Least of all, we watch him for his broad strokes in subjects he masters , and his narrative comes minced in with hard data we could barely muster to gather in the past. No one besides him broached in these subjects before , so at least we have, free of charge , our daily feeds to nourish our conspiracy theory brains. And , just as important, we don’t need to be bothered by sponsorship inserts , funding pleas, and for now, , those annoying pop up ads. Let’s just hope he continues to earn his money on keynote speech circuit and books.
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  50.  @theyux1  Entertainment Industry has lost a chunk of its operating base to Metro Atlanta and Louisiana. Tech Insustry …they are scouting for sites. Elsewhere but California. There is talent out there. Agriculture. You can’t irrigate , you can’t harvest or plant. That is where imports come in. Tourism. Who wants to be there in such a state of disarray? The allure is gone.
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  51. Dock the money we’ve been sending Israel for years. Then take that money and earmark towards any Palestinian who is willing to settle abroad. You know…Canada, USA, Brazil, Australia . Poll the countries who are willing to take them , and redistribute the refugees. Expect them to come up with figures towards housing, medical screening and treatment , job training and welfare stipends. Wire these countries with the forked up money. Make sure to monitor on how it is spend. Expect graft to take place in this process. Not simple, but fair.
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  52. Well it takes an Irishman to shake all of Peter’s nonsense generalizations. And despite the lumpy paragraph , he broke into numbered topics. It must be his editor. Spacing would be nice. Brexit. I think most European countrymen have some gripe with how business is conducted through Brussels and the British leaders were quick to capitalize on that. Can’t fault the British for voting Brexit. Things such as exporting quotas were a straight jacket , specially for dairy farmers.
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  53. I suppose you can explain all of the Brazilians who stash US Dollars at their home safes how this new fangled thing called BRIC currency will be the new order of global currency exchange. Or, for that matter , all currency exchange houses , or Forex traders.
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  54. The cables. From the State Department. That is his caffeine. As for boyfriends or girlfriends , who cares ? Come to think of, he has that Oscar Wilde panache. But then again, who cares ? We will chatise him for his narrative faux pas. Just for fun.
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  55. Amazon? What hole did you crawl from under ? Brazilian wheat has been harvested for domestic consumption by decades and has been done so in Rio Grande do Sul prairies and then later expanded to the Midwest at the Cerrado plains. The strain research is aimed at getting better yields at the cerrado region. Meaning Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás. Those are already rice and soybean growing regions for decades already. Reaganomics and American Public Education.
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  56. Way off in Brazil Peter. Until you spend some time around here , your assessments will be flawed. Dependency on Foreign Capital. To some extent , true. About 2013, what took 10 years in left in one year. It has taken another 10 years to recover. Yet, builders still build , frontier cities are being developed, new eldorados pop now and then. Yet the financial services sector is realizing there is money in the mattress and way too much money in real estate. It is called savings ratio, and this propels investments down the road. Brazil is a Federalist Country. There are no state lotteries or state income tax. Money goes up the pyramid before it trickles down. So the federal government control the purse strings. No secession would work under these circumstances. Because it is a politically stable country , with religious freedom , rule of the law , and a huge single consumer market , before you explore Latin America , it bodes well for anyone who learn how to invest in its consumer market. It is a net food exporter. Raw or processed. One of the large meat processing conglomerates ( Cartel like ) in the US is Brazilian. We move time to place like Iran , Saudi Arabia, China , European Union, Japan. Quietly, it is taking I migration. Palestinians , Syrians , Egyptians , Chinese , Africans , Ukrainians , Italians, Germans , are all showing up on our shores. Pakistanis are begging to get arranged marriage papers. We have a diversified economy with financial services, manufacturing , mining, agriculture, retail , real estate. Our health care is growing on domestic demand, and quietly on medical tourism. Cities like São Paulo, Santo André, Campinas, Ribeirão Preto, Piracicaba, São José do Rio Preto, Curitiba, São José dos Campos, Taubaté , Porto Alegre are leading the way in the health care sector. Our domestic pharma, go check the FDA logs for violations. Not many, if any at all. Lots of plants moving in to the State of Goiás. Get your head out of the hole.
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  57. The meat cartel does not stop at the Chinese. Look up JBS Foods , Tyson …
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  58. Satellite links have built in latency. Transcontinental fiber loops have far less latencies. To each its own. Financial data and voice are sensitive to latency , hence fiber. Video broadcast is more tolerable to latency. Which can be compensated in part with CDNs, outside the live stuff that needs to be aired. All one needs to see is watch a field reporter in some remote war zone. Or even Stateside. They will pickup on a few extra microseconds to get back on location. Those extra microseconds might cost a few billions of lost dollars on delayed stuff. How slower it is ? You are celebrating your team scored goal in a match in England while the players have already moved past the celebrations.
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  59.  @donkeysaurusrex7881 well… he borrowed Trump’s policies on trade. So “Chinese Masters “:are a bit of a stretch. And most of his bankroll from his Senatorial tenure were banks and credit card issuers. All from Delaware.
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  60.  @Rides.Roasts.and.Retrievers  now , there is a good reason to run away from the dollar as a trade reserve currency. BRICS might be the sum of all idiots in the same boat, but conceptually it is a way to buffer away from America’s fiscal management.
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  61. He’s got it. Nailed to the wall.
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  62. It does not fit his short take format. He is more like a wham, bam, see ya mam. And all that snow. His Keynote gigs probably pay better then YouTube.
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  63. Interesting.
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  64. What warranty? Never found one in the box.
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  65.  Tracchofyre  the only reason the gold standard was abandoned , had to do with the French Central Bank demanding shipments back, as the USA were spending like drunken sailors in Vietnam. So Nixon intervened and declared the dollar free of the gold reserves. It was a gambit that worked then. And there isn’t enough gold around the world to back every trade and retail transaction out there around the earth. . So then and now , Gold’s true value is it’s end use for jewelry, electronics. The fact people and nations hoard gold makes it more valuable than it should be.
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  66. Your assumptions are moot. #1 is correct. #2. It is a pie in the sky concept . You can’t grow , in a industrial scale , crops that not just feed an overwhelming portion of the population, they also are indispensable for livestock feed and fuel using Mom and Pa network of backyards.
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  67.  @DurzoBlunts  wheat is grown in the Southern prairies , homer. On land bordering Argentina and Uruguay. For its top soil, climate , and topography. Get out of your cave yokel.
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  68. It’s other folks retreading , mostly shot from his Guest Speaker engagements. He had no control over this, hence him creating his own Chanel. Which, despite the numbers in subs , is relatively new.
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  69.  @JigilJigil  these are remarks given to the press. To appease its core readers. As far as fit and finish , I’ve seen Chinese car models here , and they are just fine. And most EV automakers source their battery packs from a single Chinese company. Got watch some daily Autoline News. You are overdue. Your set of data is biased .
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  70. They can barely manage to supply the Ukranian frontline with shell artillery, with a backlog of orders , and Congress less inclined to keep on funding that war . Then there is Taiwan, Israel. And now this. So much for Mr Zeihan’s assessment , the “ US Military was cleaning up old inventory from Reagan days “ , or something to that effect. These wars are adding more trillions to the existing staggering US national debt. These will cost dearly to Americans at home. As matter of fact , they are already costing.
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  71. Yup . You bring Brazil under discussion , a ton of them show up out of the bushes . It is a given. . Good for click rates. As for your BRIC outlook , 100% on target. And yiur outlook is eye opening as to some factual information. Thank you. Marriages of conveniences end when conveniences fall apart. This is just another excuse to a bunch of self agrandizing government bureaucrats to catch up to traveling and find a listening ear. And hang on to their jobs.
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  72. Those South China islands are the equivalent guerilla warfare. People tend to forget , that is how Japan gave us hell before surrendering on WWII. They only surrendered after we dropped the bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The US Matines had multiple battlefronts to reckon with in the Japanese controlled Pacific Islands. The Chinese might not have a Navy as mightier than the US , but they still can be some persky customer . And they are building their Navy up. I would not be as dismissive to their abilities until met in the battlefront.
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  73. Right now, traditional energy grids work without batteries , at any built in loss factored . Batteries are cool, but there are a few companies to profit from the multiplication; of storage points. So they have their vested interests to incentivize the multiplication of regional storage points.
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  74. We do not grow wheat in the Amazon. It is in the Rio Grande do Sul and Cerrado. Time for you to start visiting your local library , if it has not been targeted for fund cutting. Or try Wikipedia. A little homework before you spout your American spooned nonsense is overdue.
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  75.  @theodoroseidler7072  that’s right. And what would be SKF without the best steel alloys money can buy ?
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  76. All of these companies , and SKF , and Saab ( Scania division ) have large manufacturing operations and brand presence in Brazil. Volvo came a tad bit later. Despite Ford Motors flight , Saab-Scania , Mercedes Benz , and VW remain in Sao Bernardo do Campo-SP. Volvo is nested in Curitiba-PR. Atlas Copco makes screw rotary compressors for high demand pressure specs. Alpha Laval , if memory helps me, made equipment for batch food processing . ABB makes electrical devices for power grids and high tension installs. SKF makes ball bearings. Sandvik makes ceramic based cutting tools and insets for metal cutting. Ericsson makes telecom switching gear from PBX switches to telecom public exchanges, including mobile switching. And for a while they also made mobile handsets. Their regional headquarters is in São Paulo’s north side by the Tiete River. Did I get it all right ? Do I earn brownie points ? Will I get a Swedish blond knocking on my door as a prize L Just kidding. .
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  77. There is more than flowers there. And the stems are bursting out of the beds. Between the soil, whatever compost she is using , and her green thumb , there is a lot to see there. Next edited shot, if you are still there, do a Sweep with the camera , and shoot as background , and then run your talking head on a different channel on ter foreground. If you please. The Chinese, you made plenty obvious before. Nothing new there. Your mother’s garden …. You can get a lot more insight on one person by seeking what they do with their plants.
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  78. The elder rather want to live in courtyard structures that looked like slums but afforded themselves more social interaction . The same structures that were razed down to give way to high rises. Apartments in high rise buildings exacerbate isolation.
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  79.  @MarcosElMalo2  correct., and agreed upon. Just wanted to point that Graft in procurement isn’t just a Russian thing. America has a USD 815 billion per annum DoD budget. Russia, not even a 10th. There is a large sum to hide line itens. And yes, the Russian defense barely sees the equivalent in invested Rubles. They are a joke. As for how fair DoD contracts are, cost overruns alone do not account for the amount of waste that goes in procurement. When George Bush Senior took office , they had to make cuts on defense that triggered M&As and consolidation. Taking aside subcontractors , major contractors are fewer , which means you have all the perfect conditions for price fixing. On the fair side of things , the Veterans Administration has negotiated procurement contracts for medicines at market prices , while the Medicare program has gotten bills passed that restrict their ability to even negotiate on the same level, even thought Medicare procures a lot more than the VÁ Hospitals combined. That much in thanks for scutterbutting votes at the houses, at wee hours of a Monday , to vote a bill that blocks Medicare in enjoying the same privileges the VA has. Republican Congressman Bill Tauzin from LA championed the bill. The same sleazebag that blocked the competitive Telecommunication Act championed under FCC by Bill Kenard ( Clinton Administration ). Full disclaimer, I voted Obama twice , Trump once, and if Bill Weld would have won the Republican Primary , then he would get my popular vote. So I do not toe party lines.
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  80. Water, huh……. Water is a valuable commodity. It will be stored in a drawer for a looong time.
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  81.  @taran5209  Social Security and Medicare. About over 110 trillion dollars at present value, owed towards the next 30 years.
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  82. That is an interesting take. 😊
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  83. In a perfect world yes. But we do not live in a perfect world , mind you. Perhaps on day it will come to your expectations.
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  84. No they won’t. The Chinese are increasing exports and plant builds where they are welcomed. Which also translates into taking over markets once owned by American manufacturers. They are not playing currency. They are entrenching into Europe, Eurasia , Russia , the whole Latin America , Africa. They might’ve lost the battle, it this is an war of atriction.
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  85. Just a tactic tomstirr up,comments. And you fell for it.
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  86. I would no go that far. At least , every now and then we get some nuggets. As for his politics , we are intelligent enough to draw our own conclusions.
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  87. I can enumerate a score of towns in the States of São Paulo , Minas Gerais , Santa Catarina , Paraná in Brazil where you can afford to us a home , earn a living , having kids you can manage. And by that, all that infra structure that goes with it. Health Care ( Public and Private ) , Education ( Public and Private ), public safety , sports programs. But you won’t move a finger to know about them, well after all , you sad sacks all live in the “ First World “ , and this poor Latino is in a “ Third World Country “ , right. So please accept my hankie for your commiserating souls.
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  88.  @USandGlobal  because for the very same reason , if you mention Indian Provinces , they will be mightily upset. They will rectify saying States. And Provinces sound provincial , provincial. As of a lesser entity. He is supposed to know as a geopolitical analyst. Big faux pas
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  89. Most residential buildings are properly insulated. They even have those idiotic green certifications, LEED. A glorified rubber stamping to make some consultants earn ridiculous amount of money, by toying with someone else’s holdings.
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  90. He mentioned oil. Maybe grains. And coal. And ore of some kind. 😊
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  91. You meant Bayer. Monsanto is no more. They were gobbled up by Bayer , liabilities and all.
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  92. I am nowhere near Africa to know it any better. The problem there , from looking outside in , is that you have a fragmented continent, and every border crossing you have to pay your bribes. On awfully maintained roads. So much so , small freight is carried by old Russian planes , flown by old Russian Pilots. If it weren’t for the Chinese throwing a lifeline through infra structure investments, that whole continent would be in the dark ages. And then there is sabotage. You want to derail China’s strategy for your own gains in Africa , all you need is to arm malcontents and everything goes back to colonial times. Successful scale agriculture requires solid banking , commited research , physical infra structure , the right people , access to water , the right legal framework , and sound trade policies. All of the best land in the world won’t make a difference if these factors are not aligned. And íf you see Netherlands , you will know what it takes to succeed in productive agriculture. The Chinese are making a run in Africa because they full well know they can get away with full land title ownership and working around on ter other missing pieces. They can’t own farming land in Brazil. So at best, they can win concessions for ports and terminals.
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  93. Quick weekend late edition huh? I see more Palestinians coming to Brazil as refugees. They have been coming lately. 😊
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  94. The consulting racket , through the ages, since medieval times ( remember Machiavelli, or was he from Reinassance ? ) , has been full of fortune tellers advising kings in exchange to a comfortable living. Only difference , we are in the age of keynote speakers and YouTube ers. Far more lucrative than to be on a beck in call for a single despot . They do not have to be right all the time. It is like batting average. If you are s .300 , you are hall of the fame bound. He is interesting. He brings in topics worth noticing. Some of his factual data is worth airing. But no one gets right 100% of the time.
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  95. Plus the $120 trillion on unfunded liabilities. Owed to social security and Medicare recipients. And don’t forget cities and states debt.
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  96. I meant changed. My apologies. Damn iPad.
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  97. The Chinese haven’t bothered with building carriers as much as the US does. , which may change in the future. Their budgeted shipbuilding money is in frigates and destroyers. Those they can use to escort their hauling of crude back to China as well as any crucial shipment of their exports. A client of mine once told me , himself in Luanda , Angola then , that every time a Chinese Oil tanker dropped anchor to be filled with crude , two frigates escorted then tanker in and out. This a long while ago. Their Navy , then and now , are being used in support of their mercantile activity, primarily. They haven’t yet made to the beligerantes naval power status , which could eventually happen. Building, staffing and maintaining large plane carriers costs serious money, even if you account for Chinese crews. They would rather build islands and reinforce claims in the South China Sea, seeing it as a more cost effective strategy. The US has an advantage in building their fleet others can’t match for now. They have a strong bond market to bankroll their initiatives. Also , by default, the US Militwry Industrial Complex syphons out allocated resources that could be diverted to universal health care , free education , rebuilding their infra structure , budget for a stronger HUD.
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  98.  @actionjksn  You made a reply based on your perceptions of ideologies you spouse. I am no communist or socialist, nor I could care less about either ideologies. As matter of fact , I never lived in any socialist country. Nor would I wanted to live in any. All I said was …. In Socialist and Communist Countries , infra structure projects with high up front sunk costs stand better chances to be greenlighted whereas in Countries with strict market based economies they most likely won’t get funded. On market driven economies , these pet projects might not be approved as there would be no projected rate of return under in any case scenario. Even at the expense of leasing out the concession to bidders. A good example is the widespread knit of passenger rail lines in China. It is touted most rail lines won’t show any return for decades , if ever at all , but the Party Bosses wanted , and they made money available to such. Whether China is a totalitarian Country or not , or there is widespread graft , or if the rail bridges will fall apart in a matter of few years on the account of a poorly built tofu structure , it does not matter. What really matters is that the average Chinese can board a passenger train affordably so , to cross the country. And the local party bosses have construction sites in their city or province to provide employ. And that there is enough pork barrel to go around. And that the cadre leaders look good to appease the populace. Same principle applies to Utility Power Generation. It is granted a “Green Project “ might stand a better chance to be approved in places where market based is not the only law of the land. And by the way , the Hoover Damn might never get approved if weren’t for FDR’s New Deal program, and even after all the backroom deals with Democrats. The Country’s ultra wealthy wanted no part of the New Deal package. Roosevelt threatened them with the imminent danger of the rising tide of Comunism in America. The American Communist Party had then a strong following back then. Upton Sinclair run the ballot on the Communist Party Ticket. That same dude who wrote a Muckracking expose on the Chicago Meat Packing Industry. And the Roosevelts ( both, Teddy and Frank ) were no Saints . FDR made some pacts with the Devil to get the New Deal passed. Eleanor Roosevelt knew about it. And she hated Frank for that , more than his dalliances with his mistress. Those are facts. So get off your soap box.
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  99. And it failed. Getting your currency in dollars is the perfect channel for capital flight.
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  100. If there is one thing Brazilian food production and R&D has proven over decades is to be imperivious to changes over domestic politics. Better yet, the Brazilian Agricultultural Industrial Caucus has managed to have their people in all spheres of Brazilian politics and even in lobbyist groups in the United States , of all places. They even managed to bankroll the last Moron in Power to occupy the Presidential Palace , now dethroned. And they put up some serious offensive against the incumbent before and after the elections. And they were no chicken shit. Serious money. You need to catch up upon your readings son. This is the very reason some of the best University based R&D Programs the world over are Brazilian based. Places like ESALQ and Lavras pay no dues to any other University or entity outside Brazil.
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  101. Geothermal has limited geographical scope. Former mine wells. They can’t generate enough heat to sustain turbines. Why bother digging for more holes yo get to same insuficient results ? Places where once there might be volcanic activity. That works. Take the Portuguese Archipelago of Azores, specifically Saint Michael Island. They are powered by Geothermal. Hot springs. Which are , by default , places once known for volcanoes. Outside those areas, pie-in-the-sky.
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  102.  @Leah-ju8ht  Somewhat correct. Amônia plants used to be located in Cubatão , Camaçari , Capuava. We run them out of town. Dirty business. We need them , we do not want them in our backyard.
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  103. There will be another leader. There is always someone in the wings. Unless Peter speaks mandarin and is in the know through local sources , who by the way are unwilling to spill secrets , he does not know any more than you and me. Those State Department cables, well, I take them with a grain of salt.
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  104. They already do. A late client of mine, while on contract in Angola told me , every time a Chinese oil tanker came in to be filled up, it was escorted by two Chinese frigates. In and out.
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  105. Well, the one manufacturing sub sector that employs plastics and ciuld not be exported to China were medical devices. FDA rulling , every change in design must have blueprints approved by the FDA. Now they can do it cheaper.
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  106. You conspiracy theorists could not at least break down your lumpy vitriol? Parse your sentences , break down paragraphs. Did you skip English Composition 101 ?
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  107. The US weapons procurement program is a bit different from China or Russia equivalent, on the account of corrupt practices. Where in Russia or China embezzlement, delivery of substandard goods , and thievery is common practice , in the US , price gouging, contractor steering on bids , and waste on program developments are the norm. The US DoD actually keeps civilian personnel for RFP procurement and inspections. I actually met one retired worker. If a weapon does not perform as expected on the field, is often at expense of an engineering flaw. Never to shody work. A couple anedoctal references. There is a comedy flick featuring Kelsey Graeme and John McGinkey out there one oversight Nina weapons program for some tank. . . And Sixty Minutes aired an episode on price gouging on spares. These price gouging practices have gotten worse. When Bush Senior took office, a wave of Merger and Acquisitions swept Weapon Manufacturers ( Martin Marietta, Grunmsn Northrop ) , thus eliminating competition at the higher echelon. For a short time, the military budget shrank, which forced industry consolidation. Still , retired US military brass gets their cushy jobs on the board of these contractors. But syphoning money from weapons programs is still too risky and self destructive. I don’t think they’ve gotten this low, just yet.
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  108.  @ClownCarCoup  to explain that to Mexicans. After they signed off on NAFTA. And to the brass at GM and Tesla, with installed capacity in China. The world does not revolve solely around America anymore.
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  109. After “ so, if you are buying land out west …” could go after hitting the tag a couple times. Interesting well written posting but it was too lumpy.
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  110. Everything clicked on this one…. 1. Perfect sound diffusion 2.Very enticing subject matter 3. Great flow of the Narrative as usual. 6.He did not mention the floral French African currency , which is the controlling factor in these economies , the CFA Franc. Yet , given it is an afterthought , I am sure he knows about the currency role in French banks . As matter of fact he might’ve mention in past videos or keynote speeches. 7.The jabs at the French government cadre were amusing if not outright in the money. Peter Zeihan videos at the morning break are an habit forming. Just as welcomed as morning breakfast.
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  111. You meant to say he peppers his narrative with tidbits of truth , but the overall underlying narrative has a hidden agenda. You need to elaborate on your conspiracy theory. Or who he works for. Not that you might be wrong , but if you come out with such statements , then you will need fo assert the basis for them. And yes , America loves gurus.
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  112. Peter , the fiber loops from North America to Brazil have end points in Miami ( NAP of Americas ) and travel seaside up until it reaches the PoPs in Brazil ( Fortaleza CE I believe. Maybe Natal, RN ). And then they descend towards Rio de Janeiro. The Brazilian loops from Brazil reach Europe and Africa , on separate route concessions / consortiums. The North South loop is a multi homed subsea link. Several carriers are in it. My educated guess , Telefonica from Spain , Century Link( former Global Crossing / Level 3 ), Claro / Telmex /Embratel , and other participants. They do not cross Central America.
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  113. The Jury is out. They are moving their EVs all over the world. As for Chinese car buyers , their sales were propped up thanks to heavy incentives on pricing and waiver on licensing vehicles , which in China cost an arm and a leg. Despite all the hype in Brazil, I have not spotted any Chinese EV , except for one fleet van here and there. Most daring taxicab drivers will risk overpaying for a Hybrid Corolla or Prius. And they have a chunky price rebate out of the door. No one is betting on Chinese EVs. The most sold Chinese nameplates are Chery Tiggos , an ICE model lineup. Maybe they are doing well in Europe. As for what my eye can see, plenty of hype. Which is how Chinese go about their numbers.
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  114. All of the above companies are in Brazil. Bunge , by the way, was originally an Argentinian company.
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  115.  @jamesbalentine8490  like you were riding along Thomas Jefferson to know this is unlike Thomas Jefferson ? Some Time Machine you have at your basement.
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  116.  @BoqPrecision  Bayer nowadays. Monsanto bailed out. They had those class action lawsuits coming.
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  117. He already stated so many times bitcoin is a fad. If you are looking for a guru go get fleeced elsewhere.
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  118. The problem with US alliances is that you are always forced to toe their line. And , sometimes , such submission can be costly , see Japan and their 90’s financial crisis , Toshiba’s demise. Hence why Brazil foreign trade policy does not ally with US foreign policy and its collection of embargoes. They trade with Iran, Russia, China. It can be damaging to its manufacturing , hence why more Brazilian companies are incorporating in US soil. As for the UK, I would look into Mexico did with bilateral agreements. With NAFTA in their back pockets , Mexico stitched a bunch of bilateral trade agreements that enabled themselves to become a manufacturing hub for Asia and Americas. Their politicians and one party system might’ve been corrupt , but they are not stupid. Even in the UK side of the pond, there is Netherlands , a trading powerhouse. All I am saying, it is not doom and gloom as Peter proclaims. It just needs to be worked at . It takes resolves, smart leaders and going out to the world as the old empire used to in centuries past.
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  119. If there is one good thing Peter showcases is his ability to maintain excelent voice intonation. Regardless of how the sound bytes come out. The narrative pace is actually fine, maybe a tad slower for us , so we can process his narrative better. Yes, I know , he is in jsome kind of frantic pace between his globetrotting and putting out quality editored videos. I do like his videos lengthwise , though.
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  120. Well then …. 1. We need numbers to validate yiur claims. 2. Everything sailing on seven seas is chartered by the Navy. I do not see infantryman meaning the deck. There are not army colonels , or sargents , or generals meaning those ships for sure.
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  121. That’s might come from haters. I don’t care for his wrongs, for there are plenty armchair experts surfacing to post corrections on his musings at the excuse of cheap shots wannabes. That is the beauty of the web. And you have to take into account his vision is American centric . One does not get invited to the lucrative Guest Speaker Circuit by being a doomsayer. And most Americans ( and Brazilians too ) , have a very self centered notion of how the world functions and will take what the news feeds give them. So he is in his comfort zone. Also, I plead ignorance on his sources , but your typical DC bureaucrat gets his / her cushy assignment , collects feeds from the host country and sends them to their bosses. It is about the gig for them , not to get the accurate picture. For that , they need to be on the ground, and outside Rio-Sao Paulo-Brasilia. Outside Missionaries , these cats don’t stray from their comfort zones. I take his daily shots for what they are worth. He is overall exceptionally decent for what comes up, specially on American Policy Making , Energy Markets, Defense , and his reads on Demography ( for what they are worth , you can’t trust census data so much ). And he is well rounded in world history. And he has no leaning to right or left, no politics , no panfletary garbage, which makes him a good sound bite. His field competition is almost non existent, so he is the rockstar for now.
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  122. Correct. VW’s largest market is China. Annually about 700,000 BMWs are sold in China. And roughly about 600,000 Mercedes Benz.
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  123. Quebec has it for base and peak. And they sell surplus to New England.
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  124. Ah Boston. From North to South shore you will have those affluent coastal property owners fighting tooth and nail against wind turbines. They are too concerned on their property values and could care less about the environment. The Kennedys did whatever they could to block Cape Wind to install turbines in Hyannis, by the Cape Cod.
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  125. They aren’t that smart then. The State is running low on groundwater. Let them have it.
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  126. It was his choice of words. Americans have a different sense of proportion and dimensions. Him being from Kansas , well 80 km it is a sliver by their own definition . Fifty miles is a commute by most Americans standards.
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  127. Com Corleone said … keep your friends close , and your enemies even closer.
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  128.  @Padoinky  valid points.
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  129.  @ultimoguerreiro82  They can’t make the distinction between the Cerrado and the Amazon basin. For them is just one big lump. They get their news feeds from the same clueless sources. Just for sake of an argument , go back to 70’s footage and they take an entourage dancing salsa or merengue as samba music and dancing. There is a whole lot of piled ignorance and chronic public defunding ( Reaganomics ) , so Geography is not their forte. Even their “ consultants “ and government sponsored ataches can’t make proper distinctions.
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  130.  @DurzoBlunts  on your mind. Like you really cared to scour satellite images and had the geographical regions right to begin with.
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  131. Agree. But someone needs to set the record straight. And a few are due for having their tushies spanked.
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  132. Typical,America’s first mindset.
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  133. There is plenty lumber out there.
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  134. The Philippine Navy has not been sucessful at keeping the Chinese fishing trawlers poaching Philippine’s waters lately. In fact Philippino fisherman can’t even fish their waters, being bullied over by the Chinese Navy vessels.
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  135. They have a licensing deal with former Peugeot to make some basic model passenger car.
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  136. And 750,000 Americans living permanently in Mexico endorse. All but a part of 9 million American Expats , minus stationed military personnel.
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  137. For some time , Chinese fishing trawlers we’re buying our coastal catch high seas , depriving us Brazilians from our seafood in quantities. Brazilian commercial fishermen were then given Federal subsidized loans , and once found double dealing , it did not sit too well with the Brazilian Governmrnt , then under Dilma administration. The Chinese fishermen will poach sovereign waters everywhere unless your coast guard capture their boats and blast them. They do not play by the rules. They have been pillaging África for decades.
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  138. At that altitude ? No. Thin air grasshopper.
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  139.  @Daniel31415  which inevitably leads to inflation
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  140.  @sc100ott  that is for municipalities to keep. Every cent of it. The thread is all about Federal Government Debt.
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  141.  @mikesmith7249  indentured slavery.
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  142. It shows that the home shoot is better for your standing against holding a camera from Arms length. Still , the outdoor back drops were marvelous. The only thing left to correct was your home shot where you were tilted leaning towards the camera and it was very perceptible. Yes , you are not some stiff anchorman , we get it from the ponytail and the goatee. But you need to correct your shooting stances. You are doing this frequently enough to give it better video quality. Also , you have a perfect voice pitch and tempo, and yet, at times , you speed up and end up tripping on your speech. Slow it down, be more deliberate. So here is a suggestion, if it is any worth to you, or you care to read. …. Shoot your favorite backdrops as you travel . Save them for your editing with sound, making sure you block wind sounds through filtering ( the later can be done through editing ). When you have your topics to air , then shoot stills , even at your hotel room, for as long as the backdrop is blank. If you stay at your typical Economy or Limited Service Hotel , this is highly attainable. Also carry a height adjustable static camera tripod. They don’t have to be top of the line. That stuff gets to be lost , stolen or broken , so an aluminum and plastic will do indoors. For outsoors go the extra money for a gimbal. For all shots , ditch the GoPro and invest into a decent Mirrorless camera , if you haven’t done it already. No point and shoots, no smart phones. You can afford them. Leave the recorded topic of the day and your choice of scenery backdrop for editing later. You are welcomed.
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  143. These Oligarks “ have “ to feel pretty stupid…. Reaganomics , shrinking education funds, and … can’t write.
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  144. Not any sooner. They will continue to land in Florida.
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  145. Lula is a swell president for domestic matters. As for foreign affairs , he is a disaster. The man can’t even speak English for crying out loud. His sycophants and enablers are not the brightest bulbs in the room. The country is run by the agribusiness lobby. They want their exports paid in US dollars. All of this BRIC thing is about the Chinese yanking the chain.
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  146. Question to Peter to file and save for next quick takes ….. You say the Russians are all out on commitments to Ukraine. It has been said that Russia, China, US , Canada , and some European countries are committed to military presence in the Artic due to the polar cap shrinkage and Northern Passage. So what is the outlook on these commitments. ? Are Russian militar budgets stretched thin as it stands ? Thanks.
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  147. Poor return on investment. Infra structure , education , Public health provide better outcomes.
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  148. Funny. Harry Markopoulos stated the same. Couple of his interviews on DP/20 he goes just about this.
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  149.  @AleRees  you are welcomed.
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  150.  @MrVitorao  quoting a passage in the Movie “ City of Industry “ when Skip goes about buying a handgun from some homie and can’t be bothered to read the gun papers to ask where they come from …. And the brotha ( gun seller ) replies , nodding in disbelief and sarcasm ….” Reaganomics , MF can’t read “. See , that is your opiniated average American , spouting nonsense , only because he/she can be bothered to check facts and reality. They are spoon fed with nonsense and media gibberish talk. And they go out to all corners with their garbage as if they owned the truth. Stooopid Amerrikans.
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  151. I don’t see bushes. Just trees. Jump ? You’re sick.
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  152. On number one …. You fail to take into account the noteworthy German’s on the job aprenticeship program. And the flow of migrants , notably from Turkey, Poland , Greece. On number two. That situation can change at any time.
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  153. Brazil 80’s to 90’s as a classical example of your pontification. It took drastic measures to stabilize the inflation and value of the local currency. Which had to change denomination name , from Cruzeiro to Real ). Now , despite graft scandals that pop every now and then , we have into law ( Lei da Responsabilidade Fiscal or Fiscal Responsibility Law ) that limits Government spending ability. I recall the stabilization was executed late 90’s under the unheralded Fernando Henrique Cardoso two terms administration. They has to cut spending , auctioned off Government run companies ( Banks , Steel Mills , Mining Companies ) to stop the bleeding.
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  154.  @rainbowodysseybyjonlion  there is a difference between inflation and runaway inflation. And no nation , even the US , is imune to this.
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  155.  @thomas735  they meant Mexico. That is what is meant by reshoring manufacturing. Anything involving labor intensive production.
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  156. There is a Reason why Ireland has become an wealthy nation lately. The same one that exported Irishmen and whiskey. The whole country is a huge corporate tax shelter for US corporations.
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  157.  @jerkfudgewater147  hitmen ????? Are you insane ? What kind of nonsense is that ?
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  158.  @zacholiphant1064  that makes sense. Regional markets for wheat. They still have to figure out the lack of precipitation and sazonality. But that is an interesting development to see.
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  159. All of these companies , and SKF , and Saab ( Scania division ) have large manufacturing operations and brand presence in Brazil. Volvo came a tad bit later. Despite Ford Motors flight , Saab-Scania , Mercedes Benz , and VW remain in Sao Bernardo do Campo-SP. Volvo is nested in Curitiba-PR. Atlas Copco makes screw rotary compressors for high demand pressure specs. Alpha Laval , if memory helps me, made equipment for batch food processing . ABB makes electrical devices for power grids and high tension installs. SKF makes ball bearings. Sandvik makes ceramic based cutting tools and insets for metal cutting. Ericsson makes telecom switching gear from PBX switches to telecom public exchanges, including mobile switching. And for a while they also made mobile handsets. Their regional headquarters is in São Paulo’s north side by the Tiete River. Did I get it all right ? Do I earn brownie points ? Will I get a Swedish blond knocking on my door as a prize L Just kidding. .
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  160. No they did not. In case you missed , Trump triggered the tariff war escalation. It has been a tic for tac ever since. And most American manufacturing based jobs won’t resurface in America. They are bound for Mexico.
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  161. Recoleta and Belgrano. That is about it. And by the way, this is where their high priced prostitutes ply their trade. And Portenos show up late to work. And big pharma use children as guineas pigs for their drug trials. Many unpunished deaths. Argentinians with money flock Santa Catarina, Brazil. They park their gains in dollar in Punta Del Este , Uruguay.
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  162. In a way, with his “ probably “ means he does not have certainty. That is not just a problem with one expert, it is with all of them. He reminds me of the wheather forecasting man at the news hours. They used probably and partially a lot. Military maneuvers are supposed to be secretive. Any expert making predictions on the subject is bound to get outcomes different than their projections. It happens at all times.
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  163. Chinese businessmen dealing with the Taliban is already documented. There is an hour long Al Jazeera documentary on YouTube .
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  164. With Peter is going to go with this Chinese Doom possibility , he has to analyze and sum the disconnect between Chinese based enterprises and investments abroad and what goes in the proliturbo. Chinese companies and private entrepreneurial investors are setting shop all over the globe and not a consideration from Peter on this. The automotive industry, for instance , is expanding at rapid pace. Maybe it isn’t on his wheelhouse , but it is some sort of disconnect. What’s the deal , oh Great Oracle from Denver ?
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  165.  @cooldudecs  I don’t see it. Most Chinese multinationals are operating outside the USA. The US Government tries to freeze assets on where Chinese companies operate , outside the US , and they would face backlashes from host countries. In fact , the Chinese are creeping up in places American presence has left a void….. In Afghanistan, just as I predicted last year , Chinese entrepreneurs and investors are setting up,shop. There is an hour documentary on this aired at Al-Jazheera. Buying property, building outpost cities over that pile of rocks. And Chinese carpetbaggers trading for stones. It is all known , including by the US Government , who sent the US Survey team before aiding Afghani Mujaheddin in the 80’s , that country is filled to the brim with rare earth metals. And then there is Ford Motors Co , who had three operating plants in Brazil. The last one, a State of of Art Plant in Camaçari ,BA is already bought by BYD. Ford now has to supply its existing dealers with inventory by a truck plant in Argentina and Mexico. Not even spares are left in Brazil. And BYD made clear it wants the remainder Ford Dealerships. In the UK , all those iconic black Taxis are now EVs built by Chery Motors , a Chinese Car Maker. Which also bought the rights to MG brand. And they are sprouting everywhere in Europe. The US base in Saudi Arabia unpacked and left last year. You don’t see the Chinese Government antagonizing with Iranians and Saudi. They are dealing with them. Unheralded to most. Chinese own a considerable stakehold in the Venezuelan Oil Company PEDEVESA. While the sanctions are intact against Russia and Iran , Brazil is trading with Russians ( importing Potash and fertilizers ) , and Iran ( exporting beef and poultry ). And they bartered in the 80’s on VWs passenger cars towards Iraq for their crude. And the BRICs deal, as ill conceived and doomed as it might seem , it gained traction as most other nations have grown suspicious and tired as of America meddling with other countries by weaponizing the US Dollar. After seeing what the US did to Russia , the writing has been on the wall. Peter’s feel good speeches might find resonance in your average American silent majority , but outside America , UK, Australia , and Japan , is a whole new ballgame. Aside all China internal problems , including demography and social unrest , they are making strides at expense of America Global Dominance.
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  166. Between deposits and going into production there is a long layoff. Norway ain’t Russia. Mining has to be approved by a Scandinavian way of Democracy that can go either way . In Russia everything is opaque and anything goes. If there are a few to profit , environment be dammed , it is all fair game.
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  167.  @effexon  I think I can make sense of your reply. I assume you meant to say …. For all of the Refurbishing Rusky does , they still have to procure outside home , as they have no expertise and manufacture in all things that go into their thanks. Electronic hardware , specialized tires , among other components , all need to be sourced outside . Same for aviation. Not sure what kind of turbines Russian hardware vendors do, as turbine manufacturing & engineering is a very limited market ( GE, Pratt Whitney , and Rolls Royce , at least for commercial aviation ) .
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  168.  @TheVeritas2100  correct. https://youtu.be/LPvpqAaJjVU
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  169.  @TheGruntski  he is some sort of “consultant”. Out of his debt. He is often ensnared on these little details , under different issues he covers. Every now and then someone in the audience pulls the cover open. It happens all too often on his open forum. YouTube is a fertile field for “experts “ to own the audience, for as long as the audience will take the center stage person for its face value. Still, he is entertaining thought. And, past the groupies singing his praise , I do read the dissenting voices and boos .
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  170.  @jamesw1659  and there is more to it…. Contractors rarely amortize the cost of tooling and development over the manufactured item lifecycle. They all use the same linear amortization as used in standard depreciation . Which is also a practice used by builders who build residential units high rise buildings. Say your project calls for 100 units. From pre construction sales , in a span of 24-36 months you know from experience as a developer that you will be able to get 30% under contract , unless you are in a hot market, low financing costs , etc. Your price = cost + gross margin , will not be parsed amongst 100 units , but rather the 30 you will sales forecast tells you. The rest will come at 100 % pure profit for as long as you have unsold units. And there is an inescapable detail aired on this “60 Minutes “ special. The soaring price markups on specific line items that were been sold at X and all of the sudden have a multi fold increase in the very same item. And let’s not discount the fact CBS is far from being a sensationalist outlet , specially when their core advertiser are Fortune 500 companies. There is some credibility into that.
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  171.  @grimaffiliations3671  utility companies do a lot of green washing. They source a token amount of green energy and then , when you are oblivious , they buy plenty of their energy mix from power plants running on cars, or worse coal. California is the poster child of such practices. For as long a small amount is green , they earn their Mickey Mouse certification and stash on thermal power plant sourcing.
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  172. I meant gas
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  173. As per Peter views , or what the Salvadorean general population feels about the crackdowns and mass incarcerations , there are not a single solution that might solve the street violence now without fostering of a narco state later. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Salvadoreans want safer streets now, so they will take and deal with unintended consequences later. What it is a known fact, and Peter isn’t the one to throw salt at an old wound , is that the breeding grounds for this state of affairs has in part roots at deportees from L.A. gangs, and the U.S. backing of Central America military juntas. It would be only fair the US Government lent help to sort this out through some society reintegration program as this would be in the best self interest to Americans and Salvadoreans. And rest assured migration to Mexico , now under NAFTA’s newly acquired riches will only accelerate migration North, if not to the USA, at least Mexico bound. El Salvador needs more jobs and more programs , if near future colapse is to be avoided. It is time to do the right thing. 😊
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  174. He being a Senator from sleepy Delaware , well a few things he might’ve committed to memory.
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  175. The ripple effect won’t be felt within 40 years. And the counterbalancing comes from immigration. Whose off springs will get married and bear more than one child.
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  176. Vetted ? There is no such a thing. When the floodgates open , all bets are off.
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  177.  @johndewey6358  keep on dreaming. Cheap assets with poor outlook on returns. Meanwhile they will rob you blind and show up late for work. It is not a leadership issue. It is a bottom to the top issue.
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  178. That is a fire back . Take that white European man. Meanwhile, Africa is bursting to the seams with population growth.
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  179. Rusky must do as African warlords did. Buy lots of Toyota pickup trucks and tack machine guns at the bed. There was a thing such as Toyota wars in Chad when Ghadaffi tried to grab some of their country. Imagine a truck full of Rusky and a machine gun navigating all those bad roads.
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  180.  @warfarenotwarfair5655  most of the “other countries “ either have mandatory militar service , or a draft lottery. Speak of your self . You know nothing about other countries.
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  181. The Old bygone French Legion did not just have French Soldiers. And it survived long enough. In fact every leader in the French African Franc zone that dared to leave the system got assassinated , by hire , from within the French Legion ( so I’ve been told ) ranks. This is how , post colonialism , the French kept his grip for so long in French Speaking Africa, and Caribe. In fact , they still do. Every military superpower needs to keep its own for hire militia groups.
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  182. They have their reasons to dismiss claims.
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  183. He is probably looking into right now. Most likely picking quotable sources and going through cables. At least he edits what he puts out there , based on what he gathers. He walks talking as if he was shooting from the hip, but in actuality he does some homework.
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  184. Seriously Mr Zeihan. With your YouTube audience and Alphabet checks trickling in , you can afford a cheap and light retractable tripod. Cheaper than a gimbal. Why, for the name of God , are you still holding your camera at arm’s length ? It ain’t like the wind will blow or tilt the camera over. On a positive note , the subject and its coverage was impeccable today.
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  185. We already have figured out this decades ago. You haven’t quite discovered gun powder grasshopper.
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  186. Because they are at scale on battery production. They have a fully verticalized system from mining through final production of batteries as I understand.
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  187. DurzoBlunts summed up right. Each crude is destined to its own refinery . Hence why the Koch Brothers were upset over the late Venezuelan loudmouth , Hugo Chávez . They built and operated the only refinery to process Venezuelan Crude. They are the main reason the US Governmrnt embargoed Venezuela.
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  188.  @rainycitygirl it is becoming more economically draining for the US to “ maintain “ global security. Secure global security is a cacophony. Otherwise , the argument has strong points.
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  189.  @smallmalaysianboy8025  That is a valid point. They call BRICs currency for the sake of their ulterior motives , as to rock the boat. Or to throw turd in the wall to see if sticks. Meanwhile .. They are being courted by Mexican Officials to bring their plants to Mexico. That is a backdoor to NAFTA. The State of Nuevo León is enticing them with a Chinese designated industrial park l. That and Hong Kong bashing. Nothing to do with freedom , and all to do with capital flight in dollars. And Brazilians , as usual , playing the sucker in the middle.
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  190. Only they had the Dutch as Afrikaner’s in the way.
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  191. Both companies are founded and run by Taiwanese. TSMC runs a foundry inTaiwan. Not sure about NVIDIA.
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  192. Quoting Ralph Nader ….” Both parties dial from the same dollar onncampaign contributions “.
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  193. Water conservation, storage, and reclamation projects, otherwise , would yeld better results in ZA land. Green tech also, since damns water levels could be compromised with South Africa’s droughts. And right now, 10% of South Africa’s GDP earmarked towards the Private Security Industry is sick. This needs to be reversed.
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  194. For your tone of voice and your type of narrative , you are talking way too fast. You barely come up for air. Slow down and pause. And get a frickin tripod , for heaven’s sakes. And groom yourself better. This was a bum rushed speech. Even the backdrop was horrible. Americans pulled out their Saudi base last year. As much you said this in broad strokes , you never specifically mentioned them pulling their Saudi base last year. Fact dropping enhances your narrative. Too sloppy.
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  195.  @protorhinocerator142  the right way to say is spot on.
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  196. Either he has good cables on war correspondents , from the sources ( not AP ) , or he needs to contemplate strapping gear and be at least by local bureaus. Having him in gear , reporting from the frontline , bullets zipping over his head would make for the perfect backdrop. Don’t y’all think ?
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  197. None of his predecessors were , by the way. Short of Teddy Roosevelt FDR, Kennedy , and Jimmy Carter. The first two got away with murder. Kennedy got assassinated. And Jimmy got sandbagged.
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  198. You mean those tofu public works infra structure projects ?
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  199. These snitching kids are not saviors or heroes on any sort. They were plain and simple naive and had a misguided sense of what they do. The right thing to do, in each and case , if one does not agree in principle on what is being done in behalf of the US Intelligence , was to hand over their credentials and walk away. No harm done , no risk being persecuted. What they do is just as same as it has been done by other powers through the ages. And will continue to be done by other government agencies , maybe China one day. Leaking classified documents…..Who they think they were ? Mata Hari or Eva Braun ? You don’t like what you see at the sausage factory , then change your career path. People do this all of the time. You ain’t there “ for the free world “. You are getting a paycheck or being a contractor for Uncle Sum. It will be long until a kid is handed over any responsibility anymore. They ruined for their class, that is a given.
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  200. There isn’t enough US consumption to make ground on tax levies. The rest of the windfall comes from exporting goods. Problem with that , if you tax exports , they become uncompetitive on pricing.
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  201. By know he knows windy backgrounds affect sound quality …. There is this Expat forum , and we get flooded with middle easterners and Eurasians request to migrate , get visas , green card wives. Hint, a large country in South America. Russia and China, outside their large metropolitan areas , are lacking able bodied males. And so is Canada. If I worked for any immigration bureau in any of of these countries , I would be thinking of importing labor from the Middle East. If I am a twenty domething chap , non drinking , the prospect of engaging in marriage with an industrious and good looking Rusky woman , I would sign up. I know for a fact Chinese rural workers are doing it.
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  202.  @jghenry2967  good point. The Emperor is naked , says you.
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  203.  @MarcosElMalo2  no dude. It is a New Hampshire Ski town where there is a hotel where world leadeds met after WWII
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  204. And I watch “ not just bikes “. Love how the Dutch bear to be a collective pragmatic society. It ain’t easy for the rest of the world.
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  205. He has done numerous times.
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  206. Outside Venezuela and the Middle East known reserves we have … Brazil Guyana /Suriname fields to match Venezuela’s reserves Argentina Parts of Eurasia Russia, off course Nigeria Angola Mozambique Mexico Canada US ( Baken , Oklahoma, Texas , CA )
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  207. Hike is a fuel for brain activity. Your mind becomes clear during and after a stretch walk.
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  208. Good news if you are a Dutchman. For everyone else , yay. No that game changer. Some people would rather have the comfort and safety of a car.
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  209. Forget Japan as a country. This from someone who lives by a larger historical Japanese Enclave, the Greater São Paulo, Brazil. The Japanese tend to be gregarious to close knit ties and are private and reserved. On the whole grand scheme of things, their approach to the external world , they tend to be inclusive and pragmatic. Thry go along to get along ,but in private quarters they would rather cultivate their customs and habits. Up to three generations , that is how it goes. For as long as there are no mixed marriages. They can be reserved to outsiders , full of quirks , but they open thrift doors in the same token. Call them reserved pragmatics .
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  210. Boomers commuters don’t just drive. They take the commuter rail lines, the subway lines. And your retiree might just pickup local part time work. So it is not a precipitous drop in demand. And it isn’t as América has solved its mass transportation systems overnight. There are the ones left who get up and go. Telecommuting has more impact on demand than a retirement shift.
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  211. Your tax levies can only meet debt service. They only bring “tax payer dollars “ to appease voters. The 800 lb gorilla in the room is the bond market and the US Government ability to raise capital. Your dollar no longer matters to them since a long while ago.
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  212. Never mind mushy grounds and sinking roads. Permafrost means permanently frosted With rising temperatures all of that dormant underground bacterias will come into play. God only knows what might come out of it. Annexing Ukraine was purely land grab . That is one billion dollars a year not paid on pipeline rights of way rent to Kiev. Plus taking over Odessa as a port city. And seizing arable land.
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  213. Chilly , not Chile.
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  214. Sweden’s alloy steels were , at one point , the best the money could buy.
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  215. Paraphrasing Ralph Nader …” both sides of the isle dial from the same corporate dollar. “. Reagan busted the unions , as bad as they were with graft , they were the only keg standing on quid pro quo democracy. Unions made campaign contributions to their candidates. Heck , even Nixon had to reckon with unions and make concessions.
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  216. Oh well, Medical Tourism. Mexico ain’t such a bright spot for these tourists and those retirees , after all.
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  217. Former Massachusetts governor, Bill Weld , comes to mind. He lost the presidential Republican primaries to that fool , Trump. Bill was a consumate tight wad. And as an attorney , his specialty was Constitutional Law. Fair but firm.
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  218.  @pohkeee  you are correct . To me recollection Fordlandia ( Henry Ford ) harvest the sap of Rubber Trees ( Serungueiras ) , and Eucalyptus for paper pulp production ( some American Megalomaniac dude named Ludwig ). Both ended in colossal failures. They bought , paid , invested, and then we bought back for pennyies on the dollar ( maybe not so on Ford’s deal ). I am no Gaúcho , but until you see them clearing some land , odds are against the wannabe colonizer. Those f..ers are born and bred to grow stuff out of nothing. You can drink all Yerba Mate and brag about your sexual prowess , but you can’t match them.
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  219.  @debs-jf5bd  as I said about Africa. As for the USA , lived and travelled there for 28 consecutive years.
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  220.  @JimBeansSaloonCream  well, you are entitled to your opinions. I see successful agri enterprises in Africa , but they are often regional and small scale operations that are suited for domestic consumption. At commodity production level , I am yet to see anything that impresses me. The exception to the rule are places like South Africa , where they take their winemaking business seriously, and produce a export bound quality wines.
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  221. Doing it at the airport. Peter still has not quite an household name. No groupies , no frenzied crowds. But he is the toast of town on some keynote circles. Enjoy your near anomity while you can Mr. Zeihan.
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  222. Not sure of whether size and might means anything. But when backed against the wall , despot leaders go all out on the nationalistic war path , even if it is not to the nation’s collective best interests. This is showdown time. Watch Johny Harris analysis , just fresh out of the oven.
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  223. Ross Perot was an hypocrite. He too suck on the big teats of government. Though his contract company. Both EDS ( later sold to GM) and then Perot Systems. Just because one preaches about morality does not make one morally correct.
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  224. Keynote circuit engagements are lucrative but a tiresome hustle . And he has milked them. Dude is just smelling the roses. He ditched his colorful suits and ties.
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  225. Agree on Al Jazeerah , and I am not even from the Arabic speaking / Muslim World. Their interviewers , from time to time seem to be a bit abrasive. But they are often on the cutting edge. Yes BBC turned itself into a laughing stock. They opened up a Portuguese Speaking news branch mostly reporting on platitudes and uselesss coverage. I suspect their Portuguese newsstaff is full of aspiring interns. I spotted France 24 , not bad , but haven’t zero it on it. The American Media is full of squaking types , and that includes CNN. CBS occasionally comes with decent stuff , on featured pieces such as 60 Minutes, IMHO. In the US , Most local and regional news outlets have disbanded their foreign bureaus , sourcing out to AP or the old defunct Reuters , all under the guise of cost cutting measures. The rest is under a conglomerate such as Gannet or Knight Rider , or Belo.. And domestic coverage is mostly a repeat from what is aired from a single source. All there is out there is the NYT, The Post, The Boston Globe, the San Francisco Observer. Even local coverage is being eaten under budget slashes. And the so critical weeklies, The NY Villlage Voice, The Phoenix , New Times , all but gone ). Social media ain’t news. Most digital platforms could care less to staff themselves with real trained reporters.
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  226.  @markopecinovic4475  interesting.
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  227. Curiositycloset2359 has a point. At that time, 1970, the French Government dispatched a ship to recover their gold bullions , deposited at Fort Knox , KY. The squeamy French knew better. That is the very same French who did not pay us war debt , and later relinquished Indochina as a repayment alternative. We got Vietnam. They dumped it on us.
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  228.  banpotandblm  that was a perspective drawn during the 50’s and 60’s. Those retirantes. That change dramatically after government incentives ( SUDENE ) , and the Rio São Francisco damns. A lot change since , but the gauchos invaded the northeast. Way back in thr 80’s.
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  229.  @HoradrimBR  English please. This is not a compadre chit chat. The others need to benefit from the exchanges too. Don’t be a homer!!
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  230.  @diegoyanesholtz212  interesting. Ceará sounds like a place. I wonder what the topology is like there.
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  231.  @CharveL88 got it. He is some consultant. And a Keynote circle speaker. Doom and Gloom prophets have their audience. But they do no appeal to folks who run things. I don’t think being a half cup empty goes well with the crowd that pays his engagement fees. . You got to take public personas with a grain of salt. I am bemused by Peter. Does not mean I revere everything Peter the Prophet says.
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  232. The French used to build Mirage Fighter Aircraft . The Swedes , Saab Fighter Aircraft. I don’t see them way too happy to pony up money so Americans can ship their F16s for a war that, if won, will have an American base in Ukraine.
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  233. Since when you became a US Government mouth piece ? She went there to make sure the Chinese go back in buying US Debt , or else the US Department of Commerce will tariff the bejesus out of them. If she went that far, granted. One does not go into someone else’s home and dictate terms. Do you think she had the cojones to add insult to injury ? Hat in hand more likely. Chinese car makers have been attempting to gain a toehold in the US market for decades. The NHTSA won’t give them a clean bill on any models they make over crash tests . So as result, Chinese auto parts manufacturers have been flooding the US market through aftermarket chains , namely Autozone and Advance. And they just got around making better product. Ten, fifteen years ago , if you were a professional mechanic , you went to program buyers such as Car Quest , NAPA and other regional chains, to get quality stuff short of OEMs. True they’ve been dumping their vehicle surplus on Europe lately. That is what buying into the port in Greece was for . In Brazil , their BYDs are starting to roll around , only tepidly , but out in the plantation you must open up a factory plant. So they went and bought Ford Motor’s facility in Camaçari , BA. And are taking a run on converting Ford Dealerships. Chery Motors are only selling because a Brazilian industrialist who runs all Hyundai dealerships in the country took them under the wing and is running their plant. Their newly minted factory in Jacareí-SP was running iddle at 15% for quite a while before the joint venture marriage. Get your facts straight. Your arse crack is showing.
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  234. She loves a soap box. Demagogue. Jimmy Carter was the last to try Single Payer Universal health care. Got sandbagged by Ted Kennedy. The Clinton’s got hush money when that vile B… tch when spouting for Free Health Care and Gays in the Military.
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  235. Trudeau could no woo Chinese investments when that Huawei Executive was apprehended in Canadian Soil. Quit smoking that weed.
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  236. A lot of sunk costs into such projects. It is more of a social payback. Not great in market oriented economies. In once communist and socialist systems it might work , as they have less concern for rates of return. And micro grids it might be feasible. In specific regions. Places in Africa, Middle East , Eurasia , some coastal communities. Locales where grids are not fully integrated , rife with political and economical instability.
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  237. Good question. I do not know the answer. It is worth a Post doc thesis A lengthy YouTube video A book. Let me know when you get started on this quest. My guess, the lucky man on the turn was an elder. Take Biden. He has been tossing his hat on the ring on how far back, if you count the primaries he disputed ? Since the eighties , right ? The powers behind the throne could not find anyone else they could trust. So he got the nod. The corporate or nomenklatura aparatchnik does not need leaders. They need yes men.
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  238. You meant Elvis ? That guy is an act. He has proven diddle squat. Just another clown in a sucession of clowns. And lithium deposits in Argentina is nothing new. Their government or private business / bankers do not have bankroll to invest in lithium mine. Someone from outside with deep pockets and a whole lot of patience will have to do it. And deal with Argentinians , who as a group are in a whole new level on how to screw things up.
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  239. You meant Elvis ? That guy is an act. He has proven diddle squat. Just another clown in a sucession of clowns. And lithium deposits in Argentina is nothing new. Their government or private business / bankers do not have bankroll to invest in lithium mine. Someone from outside with deep pockets and a whole lot of patience will have to do it. And deal with Argentinians , who as a group are in a whole new level on how to screw things up.
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  240. Mulroney Government threw them a few concessions back in the 90’s. Wasn’t that enough?
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  241.  @JSDudeca  Provincial Bargaining chips I reckon. I recall then Brian Mulroney had to deal with the Québécois Separatists and the Oka Tribal protests.
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  242. All it takes is that Chinese auto makers roll a couple auto assembly plants in Australia , and everything will be hanky dory.
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  243.  @peredavi  European businessmen and farmers in particular , live subsidies but hate Brussels. It is a fact.
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  244. This is my first negative. So you love hiking and the great outdoors. That is fine. But by now you should be aware wind interferes with sound quality. It is enerving. I left at 1:41 out of 7:59.
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  245. He has edited a Texas video a long while ago. Stop being lazy and dig it up.
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  246. Mexicans do not need to migrate to seek economic redemption anymore. All they need to do is to settle on Monterrey. The little Chinamen crossing your border, along with Venezuelans and Central Americans are migrants. They are harmless. As matter of fact , Chinese industrialists are buying large tracks of land sight unseen in Nuevo León State to setup shop and ship to the US, duty free, thanks to NAFTA. It was published on the NYT.
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  247. Neither did I.
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  248. So the writing is in the wall for Armenians. They will be exporting emigres. That is news worth reading for a real estate man. Thaaanks Peter.
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  249. And do what there? Housing demand follows growth economic activity.
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  250. London is the financial center for money laundering. Not the financial center of the world.
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  251. One has to live and study a host country before they spout their opinions. He is out of his debt on Brazil. I like him , but no consultant is perfect.
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  252. You got that right.
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  253. Too son to call a miracle. Anything said now is crapshoot. Besides Elvis has stopped making some payments.
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  254.  @jacobgordon7998  the click bait title is akin to the old newspaper clipped or visibly laid out at the newsstand where by passers would poke their noses. First page was meant for headlines as to induce newspaper impulse sales. If you take New York dailies as templates , the Post, Newsday would abuse of this gimmick far more than The NY Times. Itis all good. After all , the YouTube format does not provide enough space for context , or what is in that video. You see the headline and click through until you realize the content is not up to snuff. The more patient ones will sift through the comment section for nuggets.
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  255.  @coops1992  no it does not, to your surprise and perceptions. May I enlighten you then …. Brazil is a neutral non aligned trading partner , this going back towards the 60-70’s. We get away with it as the US have a lot of vested interests in Brazil , so we can play the rebel spoiled child. We do not toe the line with Washington on Foreign Policies. With regards to Canada, there are some Canadian interests in Brazil. We squirmish with Canada on some trade ( we bought Bombardier train carts but we battle against them on Embraer’s markets for mid sized airplanes ). Brookfield has a large commercial Real Estate holding in Rio - São Paulo, building residential , and managing commercial real estate, plus they engage in a lot of infra structure mega projects competing against the Chinese ). . Aluminum smelting and power generation also used to be run by Canadians. Who we trade mostly nowadays. China. Grain and meat exports. Steel ore. Coal. Import consumer electronics and some automobiles. Chinese automakers are supplanting wanning US automakers by opening up assembly plants. Russia. For a long time we canibalize our potash production to the point of compromise our local production, to rid ourselves from toxic pollution. So for those and other minerals , we are still dependent on Russian exports. Iran. They buy a lot of beef from us. When Bolsonaro , on his Trump suck up diatribe went out to insult Iranians , our bankrolling Agri Business lobby told him to shut up. He toned down. They actually , from press accounts , buy more beef from US than the US does. The US. We buy a lot of lifestyle services and consumer brands from them. There is not a single shipment derived from this. All in royalties . We move a lot of beef , concentrate OJ among other lesser known commodities to the US. In fact , our food industrialists are in deep cahoots with DC lobbyists , buying up American food conglomerates , grazing land . US Auto manufacturing is on its way out, thought. Mexico. With NAFTA in its backpocket , Mexicans went out to stitch billateral trade agreements. As result of that , Mexicans made more damage to our auto assemble plants than China , Korea or Japan combined. India. They are foes. When Lula broke medical patents for humanitarian reasons , Indians capitalized huge upon us. They thrive and flood the country with substandard generic drugs , albeit we maintain a decent domestic drug manufacturing industry. Our stuff never gets cited under FDA rules as Indian’s does , but our exports are limited , thanks to Indian underhanded tactics and sandbagging. We are breaking ground on the European Union trade agreements , and we do export a lot to Japan ( mostly frozen poultry ). We did barter deals , Iraq being a case in point , in recent past. Before the Gulf War , we actually traded oil deliveries against VW made Passats to Sadam’s Regime. Outside Raytheon ( SIVAM program ) , we seldom ever buy weapons from Americans. We bought fighter jets through Dassault from France , Saab from Swedes , but most of our defense manufacturing is in the country for strictly defense contracts . We do not maintain bases abroad. V
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  256.  @Shineon83  he is smug and knowledgeable. Can’t give him credo if he never set foot in Brazil. Consultants are Al alike. He is entertaining and big picture thought.
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  257.  @ronarnett4811  I second
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  258.  @nesseihtgnay9419 we don’t. It is just foreign crapola. We have a reputation monkey see monkey do , but we are not that bad. Brazilian culture can be quite insular.
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  259.  @snakeplisken4119  Maybe. There is a lot of illegal smuggling of hardwood into US ports. Have you ever been to Brazil lately ? Sounds to me you are talking from the hip , otherwise.
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  260. Was she having her fill of sex ?
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  261. The same MG controls the making of London taxicabs. MG is a wholy owned subsidiary. China’s crown jewel is BYD.
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  262. Interesting. I always thought the Federal Reserve conditioned the trade of any local currency for dollars tied to the Buyer’s Central Bank purchasing US Debt. I know US Sovereign Debt purchases only accounted for a fraction of bond sales. The other came from US institutional buyers, US investors , and the Federal Reserve.
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  263. I liked Harry Markopoulos analysis better. He made a couple interviews on DP/20 , on this very YouTube , that are a wake up call. Peter knows squat about financial analysis. Harry does.
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  264. Mr. Zeihan …..There are a few others that can set the wheat from the chaffe as you do. Your outline is big picture perfect , punctuated with facts. Yet…. Your pace of speech is a tad to fast. Try relaxing a bit. I would suggest you getting a foldable tripod , your camera tripod , so that you can deliver your keynotes in a more relaxed and paced stride. And you wander your eyes sideways. Try some effort in maintaining eye contact to your camera. Unlike Ronald Reagan , a teleprompter guy , you do a lot of your short takes in an improv way. Which is telling how versed you are on your subject matters. But folks loved Reagan because he talked to them, not at them. Give it a try.
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  265. Where all the money to support Israeli defense comes from ? From Israel Tax Levies ? The pro Israel US Congress caucus makes sure billions of dollars are sent in year in and year out to Israel. No the US has no military base in Saudi Arabia , right ? And fighter jets are expensive.
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  266.  @ismailbulshale9883  Spain is under a severe drought. And Portugal has become expensive. I hear Israeli individuals are buying large plots of land on Patagonia.
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  267. Maybe some bored gopniks da ?
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  268. Good thing for Brazil. The Banco do Brazil’s stock and trade is Agro Financing. And with commodities pricing outlook , well the near future is rosy.
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  269.  @guncoservicesllc6921  there are a few. Bunge y Borne , Cargill , Arch Daniels. I would not rule out the evil defunct Monsanto, now Bayer. Honestly , soybean is a plague in so many ways. There places in the world where civilizations draw vegetal proteín from healthier choices.
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  270. No steady cam gents. My bet he just asked one of his your groupies to tote the camera and then gave her a few bucks for the time. Notice on previous videos he held the camera at arm’s length.
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  271. Canadian invasion ..l Tim Horton’s coffee shops . Yeah , that didn’t work so well. Actually I liked their stores. The coffee was lame , but it was served in ceramic cups , not paper , at the premises. And the menu was decent. Better than Dunkin Donuts. Canadians buying beach homes in Southern Maine. .. was it Old Orchard Beach ? Those pale skinny Québécoise gals sunbathing , eeehhww What else ? Hmmm what else. .. owww yes , them Canuck’s purchasing beach homes in was it
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  272. I actually liked Brian Mulroney. , even as he was aligned with the Conservatives. He made concessions ( Quebec ) , dealt with crisis ( Ohka Tribesmen riots ).
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  273. Hey Peter ..,. Seen this one lately ? Fresh out of the oven. https://youtu.be/plHRRFHZ_f0
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  274. PDVSA , the Venezuelan oil company , is beholden to Chinese sunk money.
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  275. That “ Putin claims Russia is not able to produce something of value itself so they steal what they can themselves “ is a hit on the screws. You could not say any better. Their economy barely produces any wealth , other than what is gathered from the ground , so they steal whatever they get from mining. I may add… They squandered whatever dividend they acquired from the Soviet Subsudized schooling, and now they are falling way behind. Perfect.
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  276. Between written posts about Hindu Indians and back healing tips , I stuck with the later.
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  277. More commodities shipped to the EEUU at lower rates. Tropical fruits , vegetable oils , frozen seafood , concentrates . South America will grant lower tariffs on imports such as pharmaceutical drugs, luxury autos , spirits.
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  278. Don’t tell that to migrants who made it to Brazil.
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  279. General statement. Generally lower what ??? Overall Extraction costs ? Per ton Costs ? Recycling has built in costs too. You still have to drill and dig the ground to get to the mined stuff. And transport and process the unearthed stuff. And you will have to destabilize countries where the stuff is found. And exploit labor at the cheapest cost, so you can roll on your Tesla. And destroy ecosystems to pull the stuff from the ground.
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  280. Peter, If snow falls , then a brimmed hat is in order. A fedora , maybe. You had snow all over your bushy eyebrows. Just saying.
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  281. He always looks tired and slow.
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  282. You do not get invites to the keynote speaker circuit by being a doom prophet. Nor be a good YouTube sub . At least the US has sorted through its deficiencies through immigration. Maybe yiu want to shed some light on China immigration. Into China. Not emigration.
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  283. That is a very interesting conclusion grasshopper. Good point.
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  284. Your math is entirely off. Since when doping a metal substrate with an infinesimal amount can impact upon the final price of an EV vehicle ? Reaganomics. Can’t read, write, or do the math. Never mind reasoning. America at its finest.
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  285. Rússia is trading with China without a single dollar pegged into the exchanges. And most Chinese shipments of motor vehicles to Brazil also are not covered on dollars. Actually the Brazilian Government bartered with the Iraqui Governent pre Gulf War. Crude in exchange for VWs ( the Brazilian assembled Passat. ). Deal lasted about 3 years. It was so successful that it included , at a later date, poultry and engineering and construction. Thr Mendes Júnior contractor profiteered handsomely on the deal with damns and roads projects. Iran imports bovine meat from Brazil, actually , there are more shipments towards Iran than bound towards the USA. And Brazil imports all of the potash they can from Russia, to supports its industrial agribusiness.
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  286.  @SignalCorps1 . Wrooong. Tapioca pão is made in places where consumers are not demanding. In São Paulo, and other southern states , consumers won’t touch blended stuff. They rather cheat with potassium bromide .
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  287.  @CameronLestagez  do not blame the Japanese. Americans self destructed themselves. The Japanese just took the gift. All they needed to focus was to build better cars
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  288.  @SkyRiver1  meanwhile the Japanese drive Kai Cars , granted to meet parking regulations in Japan , and use Kai trucks yo haul,stuff. American and their land yatchs.
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  289.  @beckyconstantinides2546  what you just alluded to is the Law Principle of the Commons , or what is the guiding principle on Commonwealth States. Good foresigh grasshopper.
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  290. Ineffective demagogue waiting for her payout day. The well oiled health care hobby has a mountain of dollars to keep things the way it stands.
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  291.  @ryankuypers1819  the Russians abandoned the strategy of territorial expansion after WWII by annexation and spreading the communism doctrine. Meanwhile , countries that want to lean towards Socialism , not Comunism , just social justice , were severely punished by the American Intelligenve and military apparatus. Which includes … Chile Brazil Argentina Uruguay Venezuela Panamá El Salvador Nicaragua Indochina. Burma Puerto Rico Peru Síria Lebanon Palestine Philippines Some help we get from Americans . Fighting Comunidm has been good business for the Americans. Only they dont’t stand to deal with the fracas at their very own backyard.
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  292. They make decent fighter jets by Saab. That is one division, plus the heavy duty cargo trucks ( Scania ) GM could not destroy. Perhaps because they never had their fingers in it.
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  293. Toyota is going big on it. And there are a few scattered investments on Hydrogen production plants the world over. I know about one of such projects in Brazil. Problem with Liquid Hydrogen is transport and storage. Which is beyond Toyota’s reach, as this is a costly undertaking anywhere . And me mindful Japan as a country might have issues in scaling up their power grid. So Hydrogen might work in Japan. Not necessarily elsewhere. Maybe in Third World countries.
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  294. It has been rebuilt. And thanks for the side note.
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  295. 2080 ??.
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  296. He is a loudmouth full of antics. People follow saviors in times of despair and vote them in. Now , it is Peter Zeihan’s claim there isn’t enough liquidity in the Argentinian economy to afford the peso being replaced by the dollar. So right then and there you know Mr Milei’s claims are hollow. As for Mr. Milei distaste for Lula , and Mr Luís Inácio da Silva being leftist. Yes to a certain extent , Mr Luís Inácio da Silva runs a social Democrat agenda. But far from being a closet commie. All the years he had been a public personal, first as a union leader and then a congressman, and finally a president , he has been a pragmatic walking a tightrope. Most changes in Brazilian labor and social laws precede Lula. The actual Brazilian labor laws swayed when Almir Pazianotto , then the a labor union attorney turned into a Labor Secretary , and then were put into law during the 1988 Constitution redraft. As for Mercosur , Argentina has been sabotaging it since its inception through lopsided dumping and other uneven handed tactics. If one wants to understand how things in Argentina never work, see a socccer match. The Argentine squad is always resorting to unfair play, dragging feet, to get things turned their ways.
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  297. Well put, Peter . To the point. Enough with the xenofobia already. Can we be reminded the Japanese and Japanese Americans , all legally living in this country during WWII, had their holdings confiscated by the US Government and sent to concentration camps ? Isn’t time to learn from our past mistakes already ? Let the Chinese in America be.
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  298. One word. Immigration. No, not Asian immigration. African immigration.
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  299.  @ralphholiman7401  it already does. Hence the bond market.
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  300.  @charleshill7184  true. But reissued debt is offered at higher yelds. And everyone , from a mortgagee to the US Government , needs to refinance , or roll over old debt. And therein lies the trouble.
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  301.  @ulf5738  Social Security Deductions are syphoned into US Denominated Debt. All of it .. on I.O.U.s.
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  302. That and leaks on their pipelines provoked by criminal gangs.
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  303. And you are to provide jobs to these Africans, right? Because their economy can’t.
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  304.  @nicolettileo  Robespierre and the Jacobins. Indeed it runs deep.
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  305. Which places you right in the hands of the pork, beef , and poultry cartel. Tyson Foods, Cargill, JBS USA Holdings (Brazilian, which bought Swift ) , and National Beef. That 85% of your beef, pork, poultry output right there. Unless you can source it at a local farm , or farmer’s market , you will be getting the raw deal. Bleed Red, White, and Blue all you want. That won’t change the fact your meat dollars are going to these conglomerates, unless you want to pay through your nose to get quality stuff. And pork is a commodity driven market. Small operators don’t stand a chance on making a profit.
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  306. The whole arming the Saudi , who can’t manage to function in the battlefield reminds of how Roman Generals rose through the ranks by conquering territories. I assume legion commanders were promoted through the ranks through merit recognition by the success of their occupying campaigns. I once inavertedly shook the hands of some royalty member by accident ( one is not supposed to ). They had silky soft hands. Not callous ones. They never had to work for a living or dig a trench once in their lives! Now how in hell they can lead regional security not being battle tested ? At the very least, hate or love the Israelis, conscription is mandatory to all genres there. If you think the Israeli rank and file is going to march under orders from Saudis to do the dirty and grunt work, you got some wild imagination. It ain’t happening.
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  307. Hybrid cars are meant to be great on saving fuel. Way back before 2013 , a shift refuel on a taxicab ( about 120 miles , give it or take it ) would take $45 on a Ford Crown Vic and about $ 12 on the same mileage under a Hybrid Toyota Camry. The way hybrid engines works , if you coast at low speeds , you are running on batteries. A take off, hill climb , or a highway cruise goes on gasoline. The true savings are realized on city traffic stop and go, where most fuel is burnt less efficiently.
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  308.  @KRYPTOS_K5  This is a factual redirect to Mr Zeihan who needs to be corrected on a specific piece of information aired. . Based upon available fiber route maps and my own past experience in the trade. . And the posters in this Chanel often pick up on Mr Zeihan miscues, just as I have done. Personally , his body of work aside , I am not keen on the word of consultants of any shape or form.
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  309. Brazil and Mexico can come up for the shortfall.
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  310. As for the US , a car maker can only sell its portfolio of models if they pass NTHSA’s battery of safety tests. Chinese car makers can make the safest vehicles on earth and yet have their testing to be failed , as this agency is controlled by the federal government. There is a reason Geely bought Volvo. Which if remained under Ford ownership would’ ve been canibalized as GM did to Saab. Thr Chinese were smart enough to let Volvo do its own thing. And in exchange learnt a great deal on auto safety, and the building of a quality brand. The way for the Chinese to gain entry in the US automotive market is to buy into American brands. S.A.I.C. Owns a stakehold in GM already. Chrysler is no longer an American company. If you get your spare parts at any Autozone store , chances are , the discount stuff is all made in China. You see, all that bravado on tariffs goes nowhere . Is for voters. And outside of America, Chinese car makers are making inroads.
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  311. The US Weapons and Spares Contractorw make their money , and the kickback fat , by over billing on procurement contracts. The goods are delivered on spec , most of the time. The DoD keeps personnel for inspections and RfPs . I actually met one of them, a retired one , a few times. They are mostly civilians , not ranked uniformed types. He was pretty confident in the quality of delivered goods. As for non weapon itens , just see your army store and inspect the goods yourself.
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  312. I assume you precrecirded Brazil sometime on this series. Yes , Brazil has a navy , but not large enough to patrol the Atlantic and protect its maritime trade. Then there is also the transpacific road linking the Andes through Southern Brazil which is being completed to facilitate trade with the Andes and the Pacific. The Chinese will bring their shipping through Paranaguá port , on the Paraná state coastline , and through Maranhão. So will do the Koreans and Japanese. We are on bilateral agreements with Mexico , shipping to here will be their expense , possibly escorted by the US Navy. Now, more than ever, the purchase of US Steel by Nippon Steel makes all the sense in the world. Localize production to catch up with the rise of US manufacturing. The Japanese outbid the next by a factor of two , so obviously they see the value in such acquisition.
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  313. And the gem in the rough, this is a male talking , by the way, is the under rank women who run things in Russia, at all spheres. Not the heavy drinking wife beating males , who rob the populace blind through graft , and take trophy looking mistresses. With all due respect to the straight and narrow male exceptions out there. From the Babushkas running the train terminals , up through the ranks , Russian gals are , fat and ugly to 10s are the ones who are calling foul and run things efficiently. There are a number of female underlings that do not get a whole lot of press.
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  314.  @thomasclementz8149  I hope so. From a real estate broker. Not counting the chickens yet
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  315. Ninguém vai ler um comentário em português nestes vídeos.
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  316. Russian strategists , if there is one ever, are not the brightest bulbs around. While they are spending all their I’ll resources on taking over Ukraine, China is at their back, waiting on the wings , to scoop all of that contiguous territory. If China is moving along to seize Buthan, has territorial claims against India, is upsetting Vietnam , Philippines , then it stands to be obvious they are in their pre imperialistic drive to incorporate strategic territories to their core. The Russian borders will become fair game to the Chinese expansion drive.
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  317. Yangyang huh ? Could not be bothered tochange his handle? It’s all well. In the troll factory.
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  318. Both Venezuelan leaders were caricatures . Short for clowns. Talk loud a great game. It brings me back when the King of Spain, in some public forum told Chavez the keep his trap shut ( porque no se calla ? ). It went viral then. The Guyana you mentioned is Suriname, isn’t it ? Same place as that lunatic Jim Jones conducted the mass suicides with his followers in the 80’s Until recently , this going back some 25 years, that place was used to setup shop for American Audiotext operators ( read 1-900 dial a smut ) with their credit card scrubbing operations and incoming calls relayed from their IVR switches back to America. They would process payments , outside the reach of US Law Enforcement , and calls would then be relayed to America where girls in their bedrooms , or some call center in LA would be talking dirty to some old leech granpa in the US. And cows roamed free on the capital streets . So they struck black gold , good for them. They deserve some money coming through that country. So Exxon and others can drop polluting the Amazon jungle and concentrate on off shore fields. I know this boom is attracting Brazilians and Venezuelans to find work there.
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  319. Stop the flag waving. The biggest corolation of Ponzi schemes are coming from the USA. Unserviceable Municipal debts Social security funding and future obligations Federal debt Wars that can’t be repaid Consumer debt Droughts in the West and Midwest Medicare Fraud
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  320. The only ones getting out of Gaza are the ones that can buy their way out. Some Egyptian Traveling Agents are making a mint out of Palestinians with enough cash to move out. And the Israeli Governmrnt is not spending a dime on re settling the ones who would relinquish their homeland. There are Palestinians in Brazil , Canada , USA , Jordan . Those are destinations they would rather be.
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  321. Whaaat ? I can’t hear you son ! Ahhhww you meant outer space aliens ? Martians ? Ok . Got it.
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  322. They have droughts . Huge problems with their pistachio crops. Small Farmers going belly up. Car making , they run their own brand , an old licensing deal with Peugeot before PSA and Stellantis. For some basic model. And despite their ongoing squabble with the Saudis and Israel , and past war with the old Iraqui regime , I suspect this whole “ terrorist state “ moniker is overblown. They are more concerned in running their day to day affairs than to meddle on other nations business.
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  323. Americans and their conspiracy theories. Russia is actually doing fine with the sanctions. A tour at a mall in Siberia will give you that. They aren’t falling apart.
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  324.  @stephenderry9488  Russian women aren’t just capable. They are resourcefull. They put up with chauvinistic Russian males up to a certain point. They might look docile and feminine , and expect the man always to foot the bill, but when it comes to roll up the sleeves because their drunken mates can’t get around to , just watch and see. And during the Soviet era , many joined males under STEM programs. They might look like Lillie’s , but they ain’t any of it.
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  325.  @close_all_tabs  Chinese farmers are taking up Russian women to be their brides. And What amuses me the most are male Pakistanis desperate to find a much older mail order bride from Brazil, pay to get out of dodge , and rubber stamped out of an entry visa from the Brazilian Consulate ,when Russia is closer by and they can get wed.
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  326. Well,… he said the smart and cheaper money would go to bankroll the manufacturing plant re shoring to the US and Mexico. Well said. So, for as long as it does not get wasted into pie in the sky social media and mobile apps for food delivery/ dating/and other nonsense , I am fine with it. Let those Uber kids out of college to get a job that impacts the production of goods. As for green tech, funding really needs to be evaluated in a case by case basis , with no governmental subsidies. There is no prize reward for being the first on the race.
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  327. That what NAFTA is for. They are already leasing up land in indústrial parks in Monterrey. Mexico has already stitched several bilateral trade agreements. Way back when they were invited into the group.
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  328. Empty promises.
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  329. It reminds me of those autograph seeking groupies and sports fans sticking the neck next to the sports figure/celebrity being interviewed on the spot. “ There mama, look at me in TV!”
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  330. Argentina’s number one cinder block chained to the ankle in deep sea is … About 40% of the country’s payroll is made up of public servants , whether they are on a Provincial Government , City Government , and Federal Government . Dead weight. And in Buenos Aires , they punch in , at earliest , 10:00 AM. These are the folks who dine at midnight and go out. Not a candidate has brought this up, as it would mean suicide at the casting ballots. So you have a bunch of idiots with empty promises, including Elvis Presley Miley , the clown master. Argentines with means and common sense will continue to migrate …Spain, Florida , Brazil’s Southern States , Mexico , Chile. If you are a real estate investor , and a gambling person, Buenos Aires is a place to carpetbag. Beautiful preserved old buildings. São Paulo’s historical downtown is filled with non franchised hotels /lodges , owned by Argentines. All of the lithium mines , and oil wells in the world won’t save Argentinians. Get out while you can.
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  331. Not CIA. NATO. CIA still the bogeyman. Tolerated but loathed. No one likes company men meddling with their local politics , sniffing at their State Secrets .
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  332. Sending ammunition and weapons is half of the battle. The other half is not arming the Enemy. Russian guided Missiles fitted with circuitry assembled with American made chipmakers ICs are on production as of now and through 2023 Shipped by American chipmakers or Semiconductor Brokers these chips end up in the hands of shell companies the world over. There is a good video from Johny Harris just out of the oven on YouTube.
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  333. Import Africans. And folks from the Middle East.
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  334. Forecasted. Not promised. Otherwise a good point.
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  335. This is a take that went well in all of its facets. 1. No background distractions. Peter likes to hike, but a solid presentation demands pace and delivery. The great outdoors are only great if you are a tourist guide. Otherwise it becomes a huge distraction with conditions, noise , focus. It definitively affects pace. 2. Tucker Carlson. I never care to watch one sentence. He is a talking head. We are overloaded with information , bad information is the least of what I need. 3.Russian outlook. Now you got it right. No little factoids you did not research. Don’t get me wrong , I like your unescripted talk , but you can be overly confident while talking from the hip. 4. American leadership shortcomings. You got it right. It is important to bring this to light. It validates your talk as legitimate. You are not to be a company man. 5.you read the comments after all. Despite going on record saying you don’t. Which makes you a bit of a cocky bastard , notwithstanding a good one. You are all right, despite your occasional faux pas on local,specific facts you are not aware of. On the grand scheme of things, you bring value, specially since it is free, other than our viewing time. Thank you.
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  336. Hey Mr Zeihan …. One of the only few countries in the Western Hemisphere , outside the US and Canada with continental dimensions , single language and currency is Brazil. Yes, I know you haven’t given great raving reviews on the Country’s Demography as it is skewered and I want to remind you data from US Department of State , and Brazil’s IBGE Census are garbage. The issue is not the size of the base of pyramid , but rather earning power across the pyramid. The Geography, you are getting not quite 100% ( the plateau in the mountain range towards the sea border is not as challenging as you made out to be , aka Serra do Mar and Atlantic Florest ). Besides , more sea ports are being built in the North to add existing ones … Imperatriz , MÁ Belem, PA Suape Vitória , ÉS Santos , SP ( needs dredging , lots corruption at the docks , issues with Port Authority Rio de Janeiro ( undergoing commercial gentrification ) Tubarão ,SC ( expanding ) Paranaguá, PR ( expanding capacity and dredging , the Chinese have put money where mouth is ) Rio Grande and Pelotas, RS . Lots of upside. Dormant . On a flat land estuary. The politicians. Both sides of the aisle and other coalition parties made up of morons. Not as bad as Argentinians. BRICS alliance. A pipe dream doom to fail , Lula’s ideologues and the Agribusiness lobby on the far right both are misguided Well… We almost agree on fundamentals , we might have our differences are a matter of factual opinions. But you are a rockstar with earned kudos , and I am a armchair Joe Nobody. But it would be really awesome if you could sum up Brazil under your lenses. So, whaddya you say , huh ?
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  337. Peter…. If you are going to drop short topics for clicks , you need to start thinking about the brainpower your videos gather ( myself not included short of anything related to Brazil ). Create a member section , call it your inner circle , membership with privileges, Peter’s advisory group . Shoot the topic and the outlines to your inner core followers and see what it comes out of it. Or do a video edited preview. And then sift through the garbage and collect what is of value to go into the cutting ( or re editing ), for the final edited video at large. That would be a much shorter pool of know it alls to eliminate long tedious reads ( which you claimed you never read ). And on those reads , there are always good nuggets you missed. Things you can apropriate or incorporate. There has been a one too many times folks caught on your mischaracterizations. Although this is pocket change, a side gig against your keynote engagements and book advances , there is no point to leave loose threads. After all it is your work and reputation. You done a swell job otherwise , in making geopolitics 101 accessible to most average folks. No point in alienating them with a few faux pas. As for your antics with clothing , sunglasses , background takes , and your casual style , they are all good. They are thr antithesis to the buttoned up crowd. Very clever of yours , whether it was intentional or by accident and circumstance.
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  338. Good point grasshopper.
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  339.  @ClownCarCoup  That is chump change compared to his Keynote engagements and book advance monies can net him. That is why you see him to travel so often. Typical keynote speaking booking is some membership due association in a trade convention. All of this is to pad and validate his status at his consulting gig. My educated guess …Once he realized his recorded public speeches were not only being distorted , they were also not netting him any money, as the pandemic dragged on , he got religion and started his own channel. Notice, most of his shots are one man shootings himself videos at arm’s length. No props , no graphics , no studio setting. Serious money only after you cross the one million sub rate. Until then , it’s pocket money and a side hustle.
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  340. You must be the tenth asking this question. The company generates profits. At the US consumer market. The Chinese are not loosing sleep over this. They can source their pork elsewhere. Brazil, Russia , Mexico. Once there are facilities in place , and know how, pigs can be raised and slaughtered anywhere.
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  341. How many times can I repeat myself to you mooks ? The American armed forces , or DoD , do no contract gear that is sold to civilian enterprises or domestic telecom carriers . They have their own vendors. There is a company in Victor , NY that specialize in such core gear. Switches , routers , radio base stations , multiplexers , amplifiers. You want to eavesdrop , hire Madam Ming and her Girls and setup shop half mile away from military bases. The German Nazis did that during WWII. Anyone from a grunt to, five star general , they are fair game when it comes to carousing. Booze and girls.
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  342. He did. A while ago. Go search.
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  343. Sometimes having the King’s hear might not be a good think , after all . Once your reputation is set , keynote speaking engagements are far more lucrative while they last. And being a representative democracy , at least for appearance sakes, when there is a change of guard , heads roll. Once a favorite then an outcast. He is better off being invited than being ensconced in some think thank. And he is making some coin thanks to Alphabet largesse. You can indulge into this money making through media if you are a government bureaucrat. No hiking , no jet setting. Dude is living the life.
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  344. If you have the money and usage to justify , hybrid. If not , gas fueled.
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  345. They charge Palestinians to get across. Gouge is the word.
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  346. Interesting that Peter lines up data on production outcomes. His forecasts might not be from the hip , after all. I assume he does his homework in advance prior to editing and has access to sound reliable sources.
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  347. That and the Southern tip. That is where wheat production started. Rio Grande do Sul. Most of these Amazon Florest are from clueless Americanos. Reaganomics and Unions , their public education has gone nearly bankrupt. Geography is not mandatory in their curricula.
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  348.  @geoffrobinson  pie in the sky. Another scam.
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  349. The beauty about Geely is that nobody drives a Geely. They drive Volvos , MGs. So they can fit perfectly as an OEM supplier and control a few car brands where these batteries can be found.
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  350. That means dealing with the wealthy property owners by the Long Island coastline. Who do not want to have the eyesore of seeing those turbines on the ocean sight lines, for fear of decreasing their property values. We had that issue in Massachusetts . The Kennedy clan fought tooth and nail not to have wind turbines by Hyannis . I recall the concessionary was Cape Wind LLC. Go check it out.
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  351.  @bbmw9029  I understand. But residents in coastal communities are often the well off types , and they vote. If it is within their sight line, it matters little whose public domain ownership houses those wind farms. It’s called NIMBY. These wealthy folks have their people in all kinds of public offices as an exchange of patronage. They get the wind of it , it sure as heck it ends up in the ballot , and town hall meetings , where special voting sessions ensure there will be no windmills on these communities’ shore lines. They would rather pay higher electricity rates than to take in clean power. And I get something else for you. In California , there is a whole green washing industry that sends “ certified clean power “ to your electricity bill. When in reality you are getting a lot more coal fired power than you ought to fathom. Out of sight, out of mind.
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  352. No Peter…. These 18-45 Africans , only a scant minority paid taxes. The overwhelming majority got paid under the table or were engaged in an informal economy. Those who collected a paycheck, the majority of it, got paid so little , their contributions barely mattered. Now you now why graft is so widespread there, from the top down. Slow down on your characterizations.
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  353. Lifting up the skirt???? Peter is getting naughtier.
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  354. You are correct. As for high quality and Chinese made EVs not being compatible, well, they decided to master EV on R&D and production to conquer world markets. All at the same time American car makers are slowly and steadily retreating from world markets , focusing solely on profitability , in an industry driven on low margins. And an industry that makes only money on volume and platforms. Where niche car makers make proftis by charging a premium. Give it time, Americans will buy Chinese made automotive technology, whether they want it or not. See G&E appliances , branded G&E , but wholy owned by Haier, a Chinese appliance maker. If you want to buy an American made appliance nowadays , and a good one, that is Viking , SubZero. Not G&E , not Frigidaire. At best Korean brands like IG, Samsung.
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  355. Have you flush the toilet and cleaned the seat ? That is your wife nagging.
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  356.  @thomasherrin6798  where did you come up with this..? The farther South you get from the Equator , the colder it becomes. And last I heard , we are not selling our debt to force you in trading in our currency , so we can ship you some of our currency for yours. It is the other way around.
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  357. 1. Brazil has signed off a trade agreement in 2023 with the European Union. 2. Brazil does not have enough good land ? Are you for real ? Brazil central by the west Cerrado, ( states of Goiás , Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul , Rondônia ) where soybeans are grown , and it is cattle country. Northeast , formerly the drought stricken land by Vale do São Francisco River, Bahia ( Recôncavo Baiano, Southern Bahia ) , State of Espírito Santos (along South. Pampas Gaucho , Parana’s West ( include Maringá , Londrina,Cambará , ) , the entire state of Santa Catarina ( Blumenau, Brusque , Concordia , ) , the State of Rio Grande do Sul ( wine making around Bento Gonçalves , cold climate fruit orchards in Vacaria and Pelotas , open wheat growing by the Pampa Gaúcho , and I could go on ) Southeast São Paulo regions ( Alta Mogiana , Paranapanema basin,Ribeira Valley tea plantations, citrus and orange by Limeira/ Bebedouro/Serrtaozinho , ) . Then the state of Minas Gerais coffee growing regions Two major research and educational institutions , ESALQ in Piracicaba-SP and UFMG Lavras-MG. The Amazon legal, where Japanese descendants practice regenerative agriculture , the state of Maranhão ). And that is all I can remember out of the top of my head.
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  358.  taponmyprofiletoreachout_t  no I won’t . Not interested in being scammed.
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  359. The “End of Globalization” is an American Centric mindset. Americans , mostly motivated by paranoia , believe in such crap. This assumption is borne out of the general assumption Americans are the biggest consumers , and the rest of the world provides and obliges. The rest of the world does not see that way. Now , BRICS are a pie in the sky scheme , and it is bound to fail due to unfair trade practices , imbalance on trades. But the seed is there , and other countries will engage in bilateral agreements and trade blocs over time. And Mexico is one taking a huge advantage of that with NAFTA in its back pocket. Using Brazil as example , its largest importer of bovine meat is not the USA, but rather Iran. The same Brasil, back in the 80’s trades VW Passats to Iraq for crude on a barter exchange , which opened doors to bring in Brazilian Engineerins firms that paved roads and built damns for Iraquis. That and shipments of frozen poultry. And the same Brasil who is trading for Russian potash in exchange for frozen Orange Juice.
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  360. Go tell that to Texas Regulators.
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  361.  @fatesend8637  Correct. The Cape Winds LLC against Barnstable County , I am not sure how it got sorted out , but it got ugly upon the time it was proposed , and it hit a nerve around Hyannis , MA. It so became because those wind turbines would be dotting the shorelines facing “ the Kennedy’s family compound. And everyone else else went along and against Cape Winds plan. It is odd as they have these wind turbines all over the European North Atlantic coast lines , but in the US Northeast , as a legal operator for these wind turbines , one has its work cut out on legal battles. Public domain waters be damned. And the irony of all is that most of these opponents might have solar roofs at their homes , in a place solar is hardly economically feasible , on net power. And across the country, precisely in California , folks get dupped by green power statements in their electricity bills claiming clean power source, when in reality , the bulk of that generated power is coal fired. All it takes is a tiny percentage in clean power to to get certified as “green “.
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  362. Só that Citgo sign on Kenmore Square within the Red Sox Ballpark sight line was not Venezuelan Propaganda , after all. Citgo gas stations were always a repair shop and the gas station. Never latched on on the C-Store craze. I vividly remember a few ones , one in particular in Johnston -Providence line. Run and owned by a chubby short Italian American with a stammering voice you could hear across the street corner. Corrado Dottor, a swell fellah and a character. Kept the place spic span clean and drove his younger brother nuts, always bossing him around. And then it was this Portuguese American dude , who had to put up with his domenerring hitching Italian American girlfriend. Good memories.
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  363. Nice suit.
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  364. No he won’t. His racket. You want em , go find them by yourself.
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  365. Brings back 1973. Back then , the coup was all about Allende nationalizing the copper mines. Which Americans were none too happy to hear.Hence Pinochet taking over. They had jets over La Moneda and tanks in front of it, ready to blast Allende. The irony of it all, not long after in power , Pinochet decreed that Lithium , then not a hot commodity as today , was meant to be classified as a national resource ( I heard it had to do with Chile’s nuclear program , I could be wrong ) , and therefore could not be mined without approval from the State. Fast forward to Gabriel Boric , a former leftist student activist , who nationalized Lithium mining to allow State control of mining concessions. And BYD is under agreement to setup lithium processing , and perhaps battery production. If those are not a string on unintended consequences , I don’t know what it is. And Kissinger being alive to see it all makes it more than worth savoring. That is the part Peter Zeihan leaves out. He avoids getting into controversy , which is understandable. Getting clarity on what goes on and avoiding politicizing makes for a clean analysis. Good short take Peter.
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  366. What the Chinese have done to its Southeast Asian neighbors is no different to what the US has done to Latin America. The tactics might’ve been different , but the applied principles were the same. Economic and political sabotage, bribery , they ran the entire gamut.
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  367. The alternative is to borrow the fundamentals for the old bartering system , in global trade transactions. There were precedents to this , ubensknown to most people. Back in the 80’s , Brazil was a net importer of crude oil. Pre war Iraq was flush with it. So the parties came to meet and worked out an agreement , involving a third party ( the Brazilian Volkswagen subsidiary ). Brazil would import crude , and in its turn, export VW made Passat sedans. Then Petrobras , the government majority owned oil company , paid VW in the Brazilian denominated currency. The deal later was subsequently augumented with Frozen Poultry and Engineering Services ( Mendes Júnior beat out Bechtel on bids for roads , dams ). Same payment structure , as I stand to be corrected .
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  368. That comment is borne out of your American Centric ( or European ) ignorance. If you care to read my post on this video , most Brazilian wheat production comes from the Country Southern tip , at the prairies. Get out of your hole, homer.
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  369.  @thalesmoraisbragalyra8731  he is a homer. Why waste time in him ?
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  370.  @leotre148  it is just for fun. It takes a lot more to educate them. Fundamental education defunding is showing their “superiority “ bare.
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  371.  @lrn_news9171  the Serra Gaúcha. The n there are Palmeira das Missões, Cruz Alta, São Luiz Gonzaga, Giruá, Joia and Santa Bárbara do Sul, all wheat growing regions.
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  372. Good penmanship
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  373. Chile , Uruguay, even Bolivia all done well, thank you. You are clueless and a closet racist.
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  374. Why is such a big deal whose elected El Presidente wins ? Aren’t them supposed to toe the line for whomever bankrolls their election ? Since when they or we have a say in how the Country is run? It’s just a circus with a parading cast , we are the expectators, who bough tickets , and fhe corporate media as a ringmaster !
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  375. You are correct. It is all about who owns world markets. Yet, the US auto market is nothing to sneeze at . Year in and out, Americans buy ten million vehicles. The European market is just about the same as in the US. The Chinese market stands twice about that. Brazil,hovers about the 2-3 million per year mark. Japan is about 3 million per year. So, in relative numbers , Americans and Europeans do matter on the tally. The Chinese are contending with trade restrictions and working around the edges. Getting smaller markets with lower entry barriers and eventually to seize the US market.
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  376.  @yeahright4659  the Chinese were wise in subsidizing consumers. The waiver on costly issued license plates on ICE purchases went away on EV purchases. And then throwing money at R&D through grants and low interest loans towards EV carmakers and battery development . Now whatever incentives they threw in, it helped to foster domestic growth, and bought Chinese manufacturers plenty time to perfect their output. So now they are posed to conquer global markets.
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  377. So they Chinese will take that region over because they need them. Poor Chinese , they are about to find out what hornet’s nest that region is. We are going to see a lot more of these middle eastern folk, mostly Muslim , coming to ou4 shores , because they have no other places to go. Some places, it is business as usual ( Americas ), some places are becoming unwelcoming to Muslims ( Europe ). China could get some of them , after all , housing there is plentiful. This is about to become interesting.
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  378.  @ToddSauve Nice comebacker dude.
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  379. Those were my exact thoughts! The Chinese premier is seeing blood in the water and is approaching for landgrab. He is sticking his hands in Russia’s pocket. Putin is being hamstrung and he is desperate. Crime makes people stupid. The thief is being swindled.
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  380. I am sure a quick google glance would’ve solved it. It gives the appearance he is winging. Good point.
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  381. Cult of leadership. He is an empty vessel. Deng Xiao Pin at least had a plan.
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  382. Japanese Kai cars sum up as the perfect example of why EVs alone won’t solve mobility worldwide.
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  383. The Chinese are moving into Mexico too. They want in on dollars brought in by NAFTA. All that talk about BRICS currency is smoke and mirrors.
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  384.  @Morassabe  makes sense. Somehow Komrad Putkin has courted refugee South African Farmers with free land to grow crops and no bite. No decent roads , no soil good enough to till. As dire their situation became , they are not that guilible. He has not thought things through. And his adviser cadre must be full of suckups. I read about a woman who sits on as Banking Regulator who plead him to stop letting banks grant zero interest loans for shody real estate developers dumping overpriced and poorly built apartment units at the expense of creating a banking and real estate bubble. He pays no heed to such a woman.
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  385. Perfect narrative and perspective. I would be easier to read if you chopped from two to four reading blocks or paragraphs , without subtracting a word, or coma. That would be easier on someone else’s eyes. I went the distance , others might not be so willing. Your historical take is something that Peter should know beforehand and bring it up, but he rather choose to make a topic for clicks. You , on the other hand , rectified by saying …. “:well it ain’t so Peter . Here is why “ …
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  386. Even Warren Buffet concedes this is a problem. And so Ray Dalio.
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  387.  @assim2213  o Brazil não exporta medicinas em escala. Basta ver prontuários de sanções do FDA. Só da China e Índia. Talvez exporte para mercados de menor relevância.
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  388.  @Nick-bh5bk  the Chinese could care less about some fuselage assembler. They already have their own. They care about stealing avionics , jet propulsion tech. That is where Americans and Europeans excelled. In Avionics we had Dassault ( France ) , TRW, Hughes Raytheon. , and a few others. Brazilians too import these technologies as subsystems to value add their Embraer assembled planes. The Chinese wooed GE a few years back to China as a pre condition for them to participate in the Chinese Market. Everyone else in the industry chastised GxE executives for letting the Chinese have access to GE’s manufacturing know how. Meanwhile , Pratt Whitney and Rolls Royce , who alongside G&E , dominate turbine design and manufacturing know how , toed the line and did not give in. GE brass were desperate already then.
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  389.  @joaobordini3903  I left Brazil at that stage. I has my internship in the ABC at an auto parts manufacturing. They lost their bid to bonehead leadership and lack of foresight. People in the region blamed the Unions , but all of that could only muster a relocation to a different state , not overseas. Besides l labor laws then were already changing in earnest. Almir Pazzianoto was making the life of industry robber barons some even handed sentences. And Brazilians were never a fair fight to compete. They hid behind tariffs and protectionism. They has that coming for them.
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  390.  @caiolugal  correct. That is where Govermrnt and University funded basic research comes handy. ESALQ, Lavras are the equivalent of US life sciences power houses such as the National Institutes of Health , in Bethesda MD, and CDC in Atlanta, GA. And some universities. Yale is huge on biotech , and so it is Boston University. And places like UConn. And military tech as in Natick , MA. Actually , you can criticize the Brazilian Military for past transgressions in recent past, but some of their sponsored programs have yielded positive outcomes. The Brazilian Brass was instrumental in the creation of Embraer, the TransAmazonica , and I would guess they gave the nod for Agro Tech. Now this is not a validation for our former Idiot in Chief ( who managed to be expelled from the corporation ). But as a whole , caveat emperor , they got a few things right.
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  391. Finally an ad popped on Peter’s channel. Jeep.
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  392. That is more of a specific subject , run with numbers, charts , rates of return. Not suitable to a broad strokes summary as he does. Not something to put up and get click through views. You will need to find subject matter specialists.
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  393. And folks , if I may …. Don’t pay attention when your pandering politicians and the media bring your tax payer dollars being poorly spent. Your tax levies add just enough to service the US Debt. That is just plain demagoguery, same pattern repeat ballplayers use on their shower interviews. The 800 lb gorilla in the room is the bond market. And Peter mentions on this short ,” the US Government ability to raise capital in order to function and meet its obligations , Social Security and Medicare included. That is the money that actually speaks louder. There is a reason more then 800 million live in Mexico and other places , nowadays. American expats , including military personnel , executives , retirees , self exiled expats, digital nomads , that sum is about 9 million, give or take , nowadays. Folks are jumping ship.
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  394. That would be akin to product endorsement. And in his case, it is his expertise. Not what he wears.
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  395. To get into Egypt , refugees have to pony up the money.
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  396. Poster boys for the American Empire. Same bellicose palavery. Want something fresh , go back to JFK, Jimmy Carter , Roosevelt. No drama Obama had a thieving silver tongue , same type that moved bibles , used cars , or Flórida swampland. Only , he was a clever orator, a man made for the pulpit. Heveas an educated activist. Trump was a Buffon, but amusing on being so obvious. No filter on him whatsoever. America loves salesmen.
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  397. Selling families into slavery or tearing apart families is not something anew. During the African slave trade , British and Portuguese profited immensely from this practice. The only difference then would be that families did not take up negro children for adoption . And before you go an all rant against those cruel bastards ( Portuguese and British ) , let me remind you the selling African adults and children into slavery was initiated by African tribes that captured their rival losers and took them to slave markets at coastal regions to be then shipped abroad. So the Russians are no better or worse than British , Portuguese , Americans… the business of conquering brings the worse within conquerors and its enablers.
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