Comments by "TheEvertw" (@TheEvertw) on "Ukraine Matters"
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The biggest dangers for the river crossing are Artillery and Air-power, especially helicopters. Ukraine has been steadily attriting Russian artillery to the point where it is a shadow of itself. Ukraine out-ranges it, is much more accurate, and has a larger volume of fire. And recently, a HUGE dent in Russian airpower was made. That may well have created a window of opportunity for the Ukrainians to establish a proper bridge head, reinforce it and start to push out.
The Ukrainians proved that they can keep the Bridgehead across Antonivski, and that the Russians could not move them out of there. They will now link up the three bridgeheads and start pushing out to get the Russians ~10km away from the river. Then the crossing will be secure, and they will be able to bring heavier vehicles into the region.
Ukrainians will take their time, it won't be like the crossing of the Rhine by Patton, with pontoon bridges at several locations and heavy divisions fully supplied ready to jump across in hours, but we have seen what Ukrainian light troops can do. This war isn't decided by heavy armour anyway.
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To put the Mariupol genocide into perspective: before the war, it had 425,000 inhabitants. If half of them were murdered, that are 212,000 souls.
Just that single example of the police woman being treated as a POW is a major war crime. Murdering 212,000 innocent civilians, while systematically shelling the green escape routes, that is genocide. Yet the ICJ is investigating Israel for genocide, when it let a million people escape from Rafah unmolested, and not Russia which cut off all escape from Mariupol and simply erased the city, civilians and all.
I have lost all respect I had for the UN, Amnesty, the Red Cross, the ICJ, etc, etc. Not only because of how they act in Ukraine, but also the Israel-Gaza war. I have had to rebuke the Dutch spokesperson for the Red Cross who was falsely claiming that hospitals were not to be touched in war under any circumstances, but the Geneva Conventions are very clear that hospitals lose their special status as soon as combatants start using them as bases. And who authored the Geneva Conventions? The Red Cross. So you'd expect them to know what is in those documents. But no, they are full of ..it. That was when a Palestinian rocket struck a parking lot next to a hospital, and she accused Israel of a war crime, the 🤡. I was amazed that the Red Cross et al didn't condemn Ukraine for blowing up the hospital in Vovchansk after the Russians had fortified it. They have often attacked Ukraine for defending itself, while keeping silent about blatant Russian war crimes.
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About provisioning Ukraine: Russia doesn't stand a chance. It has an economy the size of the Benelux, including their exports of minerals and before the war started. The have absolutely zero chance to out-produce the western nations.
People think that the democratic display of a need for e.g. more shells displays weakness. Not at all. It is a necessary step in having industry meet that need: politicians publicly ask for proposals from industry to provide something, and the politicians publicly award a contract, before anything happens. In Russia, such things are hidden from view, in a democracy those things happen in the open, and reporters report on them. So announcements of the need for x-amount of shells do not mean those shells will not be available. Quite the contrary, it means that the process to provide them has started.
BTW, Benelux is the combination of Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg, three countries with very strong historic, sociological and economic ties.
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