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Luredreier
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Comments by "Luredreier" (@Luredreier) on "DW News" channel.

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@johnlenin830 Finland and Sweden isn't a primary target for Russia, but that doesn't mean that they can't be pulled into a conflict if Ukraine is attacked. Both these nordic countries are aligned with the west and has had debates about joining NATO as a result of increased Russian agression. Putin might consider the position of Kaliningrad under threat, and if that's the case he may start a conflict with these nordic countries in order to secure Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is also the key to take and hold the Baltic countries if that's desired. In the case of a conflict with NATO any way to reduce the frontline would be desired. Taking the Baltic countries and Finland would certainly shorten the border. And there's certain Swedish territories that could also be used to enchance the defense of Russia in case of a war with the west. I very much doubt that Russia would actually push all that far into Sweden as doing so just isn't worth it given that Russia will have other concerns in case of such a war. But Finland and Sweden both have reasons to worry about Russias intentions. Also, Russia might be hoping that NATO doesn't have the staying power to maintain a war long term with them and China, and that if they pull in the Chinese they might be able to divert American attention enough to make it possible to defeat the west in detail. That is, while the west might have superior armies they can't be everywhere at once, and it's probably slightly easier for Russia and China to reinforce eachother then it is for the west to concentrate forces against either of them without leaving themselves vulnerable on the other side. And with western forces split between two fronts it might be plausible for China and Russia to defeat us on one of the fronts. I very much doubt they could win a long term war with us. But if they can hold on long enough to sap our will to fight they could in theory gain ground in a negotiated peace. Or at least that's what I think they're thinking. Russia would love to get Finland and the Baltic countries and perhaps some of the Kuril islands. China would love to get Taiwan and perhaps some other islands in the region. And while I don't think either of them genuinly thinks that they can defeat the west in long lasting wars I imagine that they think it's possible to gain that territory. There's no Americans living in either place. And while the Finns and Estonians are European they don't have a indo-european language and are not a NATO member, so they might feel distant enough to voters in Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin to be something they're willing to give up in a negotiated peace. Similar to how Crimea was. For us here in the nordic region it won't feel that way though...
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 @J_Lag It has nothing to do with distance. Europe is bigger in terms of both population and land then the US. And the Scandinavian mile is a 100% metric unit representing 10 km.
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The video is labeled wrong in the thumbnail. That's not in Europe but in the EU. Not the same thing.
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@ryanmcfall1127 Sweden doesn't have a immigration problem, but a integration problem. There's a housing shortage so prices are high, and Swedes tends to register in queues for cheaper homes for years and years in advance, sometimes people are registered at birth. The system tends to lead to immigrants all endings up in the same neighborhoods forming ghettos. Not good for integration. The welfare system while in general great is implemented in such a way that it discourages immigrants who are often less competitive in the highly competitive Nordic labour markets (where education is king) from actually getting jobs, instead encouraging immigrants to stay at home providing a barrier to entering the job market and therefore also integration etc, etc... While I dissagree with pretty much everything that the far right populists here in Norway believe in the need for more effort in the integration process is one thing they did get right, and that they managed to implement together with other parties. And while our immigration laws are inhumane and quite frankly something I'm ashamed of at least the immigrants that do get in here tends to get integrated far better then the ones in Sweden...
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Agreed. If she actively took part in something then maybe. But paperwork many decades in the past... There's a limit to how long something like that should be prosecuted. At this point it should be more about learning the truth and less about punishment, unless there's a specific act of cruelty that needs to be addressed.
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People who don't want to meet up for those sport stadium rallies in Russia risks having their wages deducted... So don't expect quite as much support for Putin as those pictures might suggest.
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@sushilover1356 It's not just the wages. Taiwan has developed a population with more expertise in the area then any other in the world. Yes, other countries can start producing these chips. But it would take years to educate a workforce with the specific knowledge required to take over Taiwans role in the world. No, we in the west have to defend Taiwan, at least for another generation.
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It's because nordic countries have a proportional parliamentarian system. So you never see binary election results where a party 100% wins or 100% lose like in some other countries. Instead parties increase or decrease their relative power. And from what I understand the party of their former prime minister actually gained 3 seats in the parliament compared to the last election. But no one can rule in a Nordic country alone these days, so if her coalition partners lost seats (something I assume they must have) that means that her coalition as a whole lost power. But she might still end up in goverment. As the center right party that won will need support and may very well choose to ally with her in order to get enough seats to win. They've (presumably) won because they're the biggest party and therefore gets the first chance to try to form a government. If they fail to get enough seats to back any proposed cabinet then the second biggest party will try and third biggest etc. So she definitely can achieve things. And even if she doesn't take part in the coalition she may still get some of her politics through. I don't know enough about Finland to give examples. But here in Norway it's normal with minority governments where parties that don't take part in the coalition itself may support them comming to power in return for concessions, but they're not obligated to keep supporting everything that the government wants to do. So you get different majorities on a case by case basis. And our previous conservative goverment actually had to rule based on a left wing budget that was voted in if I don't remember wrong as one example. The conservatives still decided the details of how the budget was used, but yeah... A goverment doesn't fall just because one party stops supporting them here.
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4:08 The problem for Ukraine is that they're running low on ammunition for their long range air defense assets, something that NATO just doesn't really make, and Russia is attacking Ukraine from beyond the range of the non-sovirt era air defenses of Ukraine. Making them capable of dismantling the Ukrainian air defenses bit by bit. Modern western fighter jets with long range air to air missiles would cover that gap in Ukrainian capabilities allowing them to continue to deny their airspace to the Russians. These jets aren't really good enough to do that even though they'll definitely help. Modern jets would also provide offensive capability that would be useful.
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@EpicHashTime She went to 3rd because two other parties gained more voters then she did. But she didn't lose seats, she actually gained 3 seats. So she's actually in a stronger position in the parliament then she was in term of her own party, even if her coalition isn't. She could easily end up in a coalition with the winner here.
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I'm kind of shocked to hear that all parties haven't been represented in TV debates before. Here in Norway we usually include them all in major debates although the prime minister candidates tend to get a little extra time at some point during the debate that's focused on just them.
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6:30 You're kind of missing the point. France isn't angry about the deal being ended, but about the lack of prior communication and consultation. And about about the dishonesty, especially from Australia. And the way that the US and Australia included the UK without European consent didn't exactly help matters either after all the Brexit chaos...
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Yes, it is. As well as many other language news. Germany is a important nation. Its politics is important to the rest of the world. Of course there's more coverage when there's a genuine chance of a change of chancellor. But it's always covered at least to some degree.
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Getting all hung up on a fairytale like that blinds you to the real problems of the world, a number of them caused by that same blindness...
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@J_Lag A Norwegian mile is exactly 10 km and it's roughly 6 American mile.
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@andrewdempsey6257 No, but they operate the machines, and you can't get some random guy of the streets to do that job. They need to know what they're doing. And that requires a education that's expensive in countries like the US. In Europe the education might be cheap (state funded), but it still takes time to get people with the right education educated. Not to mention that it takes time to get people educated enough to educate others in the field. And it takes time to get enough people within the field in one area for them to start feeding of each other and really get the creativity that you can get from a economy specializing in something. And to get all of the suppliers in place and for those to get the education they need etc. It all adds up. Taiwan can't easily be replaced.
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Well spoken. I don't think he knows much about Finlands capabilities given how he talked. And he was perhaps a little too generous towards Germany there compared to reality. However in this context he has to be accurately aware of the politics. And I appreciate Americans that's sensitive to that. Europe is complicated and at least trying to thread carefully is appreciated. And honestly, he didn't just try, he did really well. :-)
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@rurutuM There's also the expertise, Taiwan got a critical mass of specialists in the field, I don't believe anywhere else really does...
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@mikatu It's harder to help Taiwan. Ukraine has a land border with the west, that gives us other options. Defending Taiwan would involve actively opposing China, a country that does have nukes and anti-ship missiles that can make military operations against them extremely dangerous, and they're also extremely tightly connected to our economy, so that would also hurt us a lot. It's kind of a dilemma for us.
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@hnorrstrom We definitely use inches for computer and TV screens. But I've never seen it for smaller things like phones. Oo There mm is usually used in my experience. And instead of diagonal it's the length and width that matters.
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Or that they do have the right ideas, but that people are not convinced of that fact? Or that they feel others have "good enough" solutions, while also having issues that these voters care more about? Our greens here in Norway failed to capitalize as much as hoped on our enviromental election... But we have multiple other parties with more or less credible enviromental policies, at least in the eyes of the average voters.
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@deesiInGermany The problem isn't the immigration, but flawed laws with the wrong incentives. Parents are paid to stay home with their kids, reducing integration. Instead kindergartens should be subsidized. Free or cheap housing is provided, but only in certain areas and for people of a certain economic status, leading to people living in different realities and the development of ghettos and criminal gangs that then spread outwards from there. A effort should be made to spread out immigrants among the overall population both to improve their integration and to help spread awareness of their issues by making them neighbours of your average Swede.
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@ericsohn5084 Don't give up on trying other cultures. Try traveling more. There's schemes where you can work for food and a roof over your head and sometimes a little bit of money in various countries for a short amount of time. That could allow you to sample a few cultures and see what you feel comfortable with. I think that you'd enjoy that. The Anglophone world in general and the US in particular feels to me like it has taken a lot of the bad elements of both the Latin worlds culture and the Germanic worlds culture. And you might like either in a purer form better.
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@wolfswinkel8906 I'm not Finnish, and the party that did lose in Finland is the Finnish sister party of my own here in Norway, the Greens. But that doesn't change that she didn't lose. This is a parliamentarian system, no one has won yet, it's the parliament not you that elects the prime minister. And said prime minister usually achieves that majority by negotiating other minestry positions and political concessions. Who will actually win isn't something we'll know for sure till they're done negotiating. But we do know that she and her party have 3 more seats to bargain with during said negotiations then she did last time.
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@aku345 The US isn't nearly as bad. Yes, they do meddle in your politics occasionally, but they generally respect other countries right to exist as sovereign nations. Even when they invade they don't try to annex land like Russia does...
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@doreybain The reason to stay in Germany is physics and geopolitical. You can't operate drones in the middle east or northern Africa with operators in the US, nor fly wounded soldiers there fast enough. The distance is just too great, the latency for the drones too high etc. Yes, you can operate in Italy or Poland etc. But the main center of population and industry in Europe goes from London through the Benelux countries and western Germany towards the Alps and northern Italy. For the greatest geopolitical bang for the buck and infrastructure support you'll want any base east of the Atlantic located there. Nowhere outside Europe is both friendly enough and stable enough and got the infrastructure and location to be as useful as that region. Germany is smack in the middle of that. Belgium and the Netherlands might do a similar job, England and Italy is just on the outskirts of this European hub and outside Europe you just don't have any options giving you this big a reach. Pulling out of Europe would entail pulling out most of your capabilities of western Asia and most of Africa too with the implications that has on trade and the resources security for US companies. Basically the US base in Germany has nothing to do with defending Europeans and everything to do with securing the resources needed by US companies (and by extension US jobs).
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@himawari651 Honestly at this point most of the west actually wants Japan to change the constitution... We're going to need their help if we're to oppose China. We will without a doubt help defend South Korea or Japan against China. Supply lines, population sizes, long term diplomatic relations etc all points in that direction. With Taiwan it's more difficult. You'd have to get a consensus for intervening despite the nuclear threat and no formal commitment to help Taiwan from most of the western countries. It can be done, but would be difficult.
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If you think German elections are fragmented you've seen nothing yet. Norway has 169 seats representing a population of about 5 million people, and we have 10 political parties represented in our parliament after this years election. The smallest represented party had 0,2% of the total national vote supporting them, and is fighting for a hospital in a part of the country that has more representation relative to their population size then the rest of the country, similarly to how US states have political power not just based on population. My own party has 3 seats, up from 1 last election with 3,9% of the votes, if we had 4% we would have had 7 seats, 3 from the individual electoral circles and 4 leveling seats on top of that. The communists increased their number of seats from 1 to 8 in this years election and was one of the big winners of this election. When you have multiple political parties you end up with multiple political axis, not just left-right. If Germany had more political parties represented, like we do then there would have been more possible coalition options available and the parties could shop around more for a possible coalition.
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@MJ-cv5ye Yes and no. Norway isn't allowed to have any military on land on Svalbard. Norwegian interpretation of the treaty is that Norway is that the sea of the coast of Svalbard isn't managed by the treaty and is ruled like regular Norwegian waters, most other treaty signatories disagree there.
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@moisuomi Are how open are FDP towards a coalition with SPD? They're leaning more right then left from what I can tell, while the Greens leans more left then right it seems. Both of them are required for a coalition that doesn't include both the major parties as far as I can tell. That would entail one of those two parties having to cooperate with their second choice.
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What a unprofessional civil servant... In civilized countries they serve in their job under multiple different governments and are hired for their qualifications not by politicans or elected in. And said civilized nations have more than two political parties with a government form where you don't have a single party holding pretty much all power after an election. Instead victories and losses are partial with influence increased or decreased based on popularity, something that also means that there's actually incentives to work together as someone else's success doesn't automatically equal your own complete failure to get any of your own valued represented...
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@k.rhansen2038 Was that confirmed or just the leading theory? It could be a accident, it could be sabotage. Who knows...
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@midnitekingdrama2558 The Philippines has the advantage of a sea between it and China. It'll be hard for them to invade if you have a major sea power backing you, be that a American or European one... They'll have their hands full with Taiwan... No, the biggest concern is likely disrupted trade and hybrid warfare, not a land war on the Philippines, unless China manages to trigger a proxy civil war of some kind...
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@a5cent Exactly. Europe and the US has a lot of knowledge about the chip design phase of semiconductor production. My home city in Norway is involved in producing the designs for the iGPUs used in stock ARM SOC designs. And we can produce some prototypes in small quantity here just fine. But producing chips at scale is something that Taiwan has specialized in. And only South Korea even gets close to them there.
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0:46 That translation leaves a bit to be desired.
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Not quite. Sao traditionally the party with the most votes is asked to try to form a coalition first I believe (I'm not German, but their system in this regard is similar to ours here in Norway, minus the king here in Norway). So since it looks like CDU/CSU has a tiny bit more votes they'll probably be asked to try to form a coalition first (unless that changes and SPD manages to get a couple more votes). However if CDU/CSU fails to form a coalition government that's able to get a majority of the German parliament to vote for them then the second biggest party gets a shot at trying to form a government, then the third biggest, fourth biggest etc till there either is a coalition that manages to get a majority to support them forming a government (although that doesn't necessarily mean that all the representatives that votes for them necessarily are in parties that takes part in the actual cabinet) or there's a majority in favour of a new election. At least that's how I believe their system works. I could be wrong in some of those details. But in theory if there's neither any other majority proposal available out there nor enough support for a new election then the linke could try to form a coalition with them holding the Chancellor. Theory, in reality there would of course be a new election long before that happened. But yes, this will most likely end up with one of the two biggest parties holding the chancellorship. Although I don't think that it's impossible that the Greens gets it in order for one of the big two to get power if the horse trading between the parties goes in that direction. Although a coalition between CSU/CDU might be more likely. I'm not familiar enough with German politics to determine what's more likely of those two options. One possible combination could perhaps be SPD or CDU + Greens + FDP. FDP + the greens have 26% of the votes together, so together they could give either SPD or CSU/CDU a government option that doesn't include the other big party. and being biggest in a coalition has advantages. The greens would probably prefer SPD. FDP would probably prefer CDU/CSU although I don't think they're ruling out a coalition with SPD. Linke isn't powerful enough to make a difference right now and mainly matters because if they fall below 5% the seats they'd have would go to other parties. Of course all of this is just a first glance based on proportional representation. Germany uses MMP and I'm not sure exactly how much that will influence things, and I'm also not sure if every vote is of equal value in Germany. In my own country northern votes are more valuable with fewer voters pr representative up there then in high population density areas like the capital. So the exact maths of the number of seats involved is likely to be more complicated then what we see at 3:04.
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Agreed, everyone already knows that the CDU/CSU is a fallback option for the Greens and FDP, but that doesn't mean that it's a good idea to talk too loudly about that. He just seems unsympathetic and antidemocratic when he does that. SPD needs to give the Greens and FDP a pretty good offer in this situation though.
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There might be more parties in parliament now then before. But there's still way too few in my view. 5% just is too high, and the 3 first past the post seat alternative is just too favorable for big parties and too hard for small ones. 5% for the proportional seats at a national level wouldn't be so bad if the local seats where also proportional (but without any lower limit). Merge the current first past the post electoral circles, perhaps 4 and 4 of them then add another seat or two there. More in certain areas if there's a need to increase representation there for whatever reason. The national level proportionality would still correct for the lower number of seats in the local electoral circles. And by making the local electoral circles proportional it's not as unfair towards smaller parties and you keep the locality of the election, ensuring that every area is fairly represented. Making a party popular enough in one electoral circle to gain a seat or two isn't as difficult as winning a first past the post electoral circle or reaching 5% of the votes. Yet, 5% would be something to strive for as parties above that would be able to significantly increase their relative power, yet smaller parties can still be king makers by holding the balance of power and negotiating on a case by case basis on policies. That should also hopefully help increase the number of paths towards a majority.
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@louisecorchevolle9241 Sorry? I kind of doubt that anything can actually stop those newest Russian missiles. :-/ At least not before hitting Europe. The US might be able to cut them off from hitting their mainland give that they are located further away giving them more response time...
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@N Fels Actually, the inhabitants of Kaliningrad are probably the Russians that feels the most western of all of them... More of them have actually visited the west then Russians in most of the rest of Russia... While there's of course a lot of Russian troops stationed there I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the civilians there would actually welcome the opporturnity to no longer be ruled by Putin and the other Russian oligarchs...
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DontCheckMyChannel_ He's fighting a nation with a far bigger population and that started out with far more equipment, yet he managed to stop and force back Russia. But of course there's seasons in this war. Ukraine isn't wasting resources on advancing while there's mud season like Russia was. Better to wait on troops being trained in the west. They're almost ready now.
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@ericsohn5084 Consider another part of the world? The Germanic parts of Europe have a much better work-life balance that might help you with getting at least time to integrate. On the other hand it's harder to integrate culturally. Alternatively the Latin world seems to be pretty open towards strangers for better and worse, not that I'm an expert in their culture or anything like that...
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@ericsohn5084 nods That's one thing that's good here. With our welfare system you can always feel safe, as our government looks after everyone. Society is safe etc.
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@frozello14 No, if you had one party of Nazies that's the biggest party in a country and no one wants to cooperate with them because they're Nazies and the majority of people voted for other parties, then those other parties working together in a coalition is the winners even if they're not the biggest. Indeed sometimes the two biggest parties may not even be a member of the governing coalition because while they have the most votes as single parties you'll find that coalitions including them essentially has less votes then the other side. Yes, gaining more seats is a victory, you get more influence. But the real victory is to win votes in the parliament, including, but not limited to the vote for who should be prime minister. For the prime minister role if the 3 biggest parties fails to come up with anything else that's better and you end up with the previous 5 party government plus some other party leading to a majority then yes, those previous five parties should continue to rule if they manage to get enough other parties supporting them. It involves negotiations. The benefit of being the biggest party is that you get to try first. As for the exact election results I keep seeing articles about parties winning or losing seats, but not being Finnish I've yet to see a up to date overview of the seat distribution. But my point is that any combination of parties that gets more seats, however they manage to get it is equally valid in terms of honouring the election results as any other combination, regardless of the size of the parties involved.
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@joninator7858 No, but there's a difference in degrees between what they do and our Russian neighbors do. Canada and Mexico doesn't have to fear annexation or war. They don't need allies to protect them from a Imperial neighbor like we had to enter as a neighbour of Russia. It's not like we want to be in a nuclear alliance. Russia really gave us no choice, and they've now proven themselves so unreliable that even Sweden and Finland has decided to join NATO. If Russia didn't exist or at least behaved then all the Nordics would have stayed neutral. We've always preferred to play the major powers against each other to maintain independence while trying to achieve our own goals here in our own corner of the continent. We're on the European peripheral and we know it. That used to be a quite comfortable location...
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Not true. As a voter you actually have more power in a proportional system like this because you can decide the relative power between the political parties during negotiations. I prefer the party list proportional system of my own country over the MMP due to less focus on the individuals and more on parties and their policies, but even so, you can vote for a party and a candidate in the German system. You can to a large degree pick who makes it into the parliament as well as who's likely to end up in charge. Only downside is that the German system requires a majority to pass laws, rather then a absence of a majority against a motion. So it's a lot harder to lead a minority goverment there then in some other countries. And also, the percentages of votes needed to make it into the parliament is a bit on the high side...
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@irvinmcb They might be restarting coal plants in the short term. But the prices on among other things coal is making renewables more viable making them greener long term.
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Excuse me, but how is that relevant?
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@darren5971 The Philippines didn't fight in Vietnam. But the US has many ethnic groups. So of course some faught there. Likewise there's multiple ethnic groups present in other nations involved in the war.
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Make green trade unions. People over 50+ might be a majority of the total population. But they're a much smaller portion of the total workforce then they are of the total population. Green strikes and working for the environment with wages and other concerns being lower priority could force the older generations to recognize the environment in return for the work and tax money needed to fund their pensions. Sacrifices has to be made by everyone. But if we can get the older generations to the negotiation table perhaps we can find better solutions.
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