Comments by "Luredreier" (@Luredreier) on "Sweden sends troops to Baltic island as Russian navy steps up presence | DW News" video.

  1. ​ @johnlenin830  Finland and Sweden isn't a primary target for Russia, but that doesn't mean that they can't be pulled into a conflict if Ukraine is attacked. Both these nordic countries are aligned with the west and has had debates about joining NATO as a result of increased Russian agression. Putin might consider the position of Kaliningrad under threat, and if that's the case he may start a conflict with these nordic countries in order to secure Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is also the key to take and hold the Baltic countries if that's desired. In the case of a conflict with NATO any way to reduce the frontline would be desired. Taking the Baltic countries and Finland would certainly shorten the border. And there's certain Swedish territories that could also be used to enchance the defense of Russia in case of a war with the west. I very much doubt that Russia would actually push all that far into Sweden as doing so just isn't worth it given that Russia will have other concerns in case of such a war. But Finland and Sweden both have reasons to worry about Russias intentions. Also, Russia might be hoping that NATO doesn't have the staying power to maintain a war long term with them and China, and that if they pull in the Chinese they might be able to divert American attention enough to make it possible to defeat the west in detail. That is, while the west might have superior armies they can't be everywhere at once, and it's probably slightly easier for Russia and China to reinforce eachother then it is for the west to concentrate forces against either of them without leaving themselves vulnerable on the other side. And with western forces split between two fronts it might be plausible for China and Russia to defeat us on one of the fronts. I very much doubt they could win a long term war with us. But if they can hold on long enough to sap our will to fight they could in theory gain ground in a negotiated peace. Or at least that's what I think they're thinking. Russia would love to get Finland and the Baltic countries and perhaps some of the Kuril islands. China would love to get Taiwan and perhaps some other islands in the region. And while I don't think either of them genuinly thinks that they can defeat the west in long lasting wars I imagine that they think it's possible to gain that territory. There's no Americans living in either place. And while the Finns and Estonians are European they don't have a indo-european language and are not a NATO member, so they might feel distant enough to voters in Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin to be something they're willing to give up in a negotiated peace. Similar to how Crimea was. For us here in the nordic region it won't feel that way though...
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  2.  @louisecorchevolle9241  Sorry? I kind of doubt that anything can actually stop those newest Russian missiles. :-/ At least not before hitting Europe. The US might be able to cut them off from hitting their mainland give that they are located further away giving them more response time...
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  3. @N Fels Actually, the inhabitants of Kaliningrad are probably the Russians that feels the most western of all of them... More of them have actually visited the west then Russians in most of the rest of Russia... While there's of course a lot of Russian troops stationed there I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the civilians there would actually welcome the opporturnity to no longer be ruled by Putin and the other Russian oligarchs...
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  4.  @Andrij_Kozak  The baltic states does not have that capability, they'll have their hands full with defending themselves. If Kaliningrad is to be taken that would need to be done from Poland where there's enough troops stationed for that to actually be a option. Also, technically NATO has a agreement with Russia about not stationing significant number of troops in the baltic countries, NATO would have to break that agreement in order to attack Kaliningrad from the Baltic side, if that's desired.
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  5.  @JAMESJJEFFERS  A laser might melt it, but can't for instance stop the mass and the ballistic trajectory. And you can design the missile with thermal shielding (already normal in ballistic missiles due to reentry heat) that would likely make lasers too slow at actually melting through to the vital parts of the missile. Lasers aren't a magic bullet that solves all the problems. They solve certain issues faced by ships etc that needs missile defense. Lasers don't run out of ammo in the same way that you would if you try to shoot down missiles with other missiles or guns and you face a overwhelming saturation attack. Lasers also has limited range within the atmosphere. You can break international law and equip satellites with them, but again you can use either atmospheric shielding or structural shielding or a combination of the two to make it to the target still functional. Add a saturation attack and space based anti-missile defenses will be overwhelmed and a portion of the attack will make it through. If launched short range it's unlikely that such weapons could be stopped from doing damage in my view. And long range damage should still be possible even if defenses perhaps could be built capable of stopping many such missiles in a long range attack you'd end up with issues of saturation. Space is still expensive, especially for larger satelittes and other large payloads. No, I hope they'll refrain from attacking us due to the massive amounts of damage we're still capable of doing in return here in NATO. Basically, like the song "Russians" by Sting. Listen to it some day. "Believe me when I say to you, I hope that the Russians love their children too."
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  6.  @Andrij_Kozak  Wouldn't surprise me, but I hope not...
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  7.  @vladm5920  Maybe, but it's also cut off and vulnerable. In case of a war it's likely that it would fall. Of course before it does so the Baltic countries would be cut off and vulnerable too. So it's possible that Russia would make significant advances there...
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