Comments by "UzuMaki NaRuto" (@UzumakiNaruto_) on "Military Summary"
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@antyspi4466
This is a war between NATO and Russia, for key strategic areas that are vital for Russia, for NATO gaining a foothold to threaten further vital Russian interests, as well as Russia´s status as a great power and regime change in Moscow.
Russia hasn't been a 'great power' for a very long time and no one would threaten Russia if they didn't threaten others first.
Russia can never back down, as a defeat threatens the very existence of the Russian state. If Russia has to mobilize 10 million men and lead a total war effort, so be it. It can rely on China´s support in that matter, which understands that if Russia gets defeated, exhausted, geostrategically neutered and perhaps even becomes a Western colony like in the early 90´s, Beijing will be the next on Washington´s menu.
That's the problem that Russia created for themselves. They believed invading and taking over Ukraine would be a relative easy operation that would take a few weeks at most and they completely miscalculated and have jumped into the biggest shitstorm that they could ever dream of and now they're stuck.
I hope China is watching and sees how stupid using military force without much thought can place your nation into a giant hole that you don't want to be in and instead find other non-military means to solve issues that you might have with other nations.
So yes, we will most likely see the escalation into WW III and a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, but not because Kiev gets showered with weapons and because of battlefield successes, but because Ukraine is losing and can´t get sufficiently re-equipped. Even temporary Ukrainian successes would just delay the inevitable, as it would force Moscow to double down and increase its war effort to the point where it can break Ukraine´s forces - which brings us again to a NATO intervention.
What is Russia going to double down with if it keeps losing men and equipment at the rate they're going at? They're going to fight with ever increasingly less trained and capable men armed with ever increasingly older equipment. Goodluck to the Russians when Ukraine is going in the opposite direction where more and more NATO is becoming more willing to send ever more modern western equipment to help Ukrainians push back the Russians.
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@waynzignordics
Nato soldiers, active or inactive, comprise the entirety of the IL army responsible for the territorial recovery in Kharkiv. Their command structure is comprised of active Nato commanders. Does that fact make you uncomfortable?
I never disagreed that in terms of intelligence and assistance in command and planning etc. that NATO has greatly helped the UA forces. I just dispute that actual NATO soldiers who are actively serving within their own forces are fighting on the ground in Ukraine. As far as I've read pretty much all western volunteers fighting right now are not currently serving in their own country's armies.
Nato didn't "become involved" after Russia invaded, it's been involved since before 2014. Nato has been equipping, training, or financing AFU for nearly a decade.
Unfortunately for Ukraine it wasn't at the pace needed otherwise they should have a much larger NATO trained and equipped force ready at the beginning of the invasion to push back the Russians. Still there was enough that it made a significant enough difference that the Russian invasion was eventually slowed down and now mostly stopped.
Russia invaded Ukraine after the AFU began amassing troops on the Donbas border in preparation of an invasion into the region. The Donbas republics asked Russia for help, and she did so under the UN Charter rules.
Donbas is still apart of Ukraine and this was an internal matter that Russia didn't have to interfere with, but they did anyways. There wouldn't be fighting if some people in Donbas didn't form militias and try to gain independence by force and then when they started losing Russia intervened to help.
Also while many people in the Donbas did want independence or least more autonomy, from what I've read I don't think most residence living there wanted to do it by force and having their people dying and infrastructure destroyed.
The initial move on Kiev had the goal of fixing AFU troops in the north-west and preventing them from reinforcing the Donbas region. It worked so well Russia took more land than they could hold with their limited troop numbers, namely Kharkiv. The hope was Ukraine's government would capitulate like in 2014 in Crimea, and ALMOST DID, until Boris Johnson told Zelenskyy no, Biden backed up Boris, and Zelenskyy became the face of the greatest propaganda project the world has ever seen. Congrats for buying into it.
This makes no sense. You don't waste a significant portion of your troops and equipment in a 'feint' when its completely unnecessary to do so. As I've said elsewhere the Russians could've accomplished the same objective of forcing the Ukrainians to keep forces near Kiev and surrounding areas by simply having their 40k or so troops stay on the Belarus border and do nothing else.
Just sit that Russian force on the border and keep it there and do nothing else and they don't lose equipment and men that's badly needed now. And this doesn't even include all the logistical resources that were wasted supporting that attack that could've been transferred to support the eastern and southern fronts that lost alot of heavy equipment because many Russian vehicles ran out of fuel or broke down and were then abandoned.
Russia hasn't "pushed all their chips in." They haven't fully mobilized. They're fighting a SMO (by legal definition), and appear intent on keeping it that way.
What I'm saying is that the Russians have nearly used up as much of their forces and equipment as they can short of fully mobilizing which is why the talk of mobilization has ramped up so much in recent weeks. If the Russians were winning comfortably there wouldn't be any talk about mobilization at all and the reason why they haven't done it is because it would be open admission that they're failing badly in Ukraine and that short of throwing much more into the fight they're now not only not going to accomplish their goals, but they might lose much of what they've gained.
The Russians believed that what forces they gathered at the beginning of the invasion would be enough and they grossly miscalculated and now they're paying the price.
Russia doesn't want all of Ukraine, it wants everything east of the Dniper river, and the entire southern border through Odessa. Kiev can keep the rest (although Poland is gonna take back Lvov, watch).
If this was the case then they shouldn't have attacked towards Kiev which was a complete waste of forces and supplies. I think the Russians believed that even with NATO help since 2014 that having seen the Ukrainians fight previously in the Donbas and Crimea, they didn't think that UA forces would be a match for them or that they would even have the will to fight.
With those assumptions the Russians invaded thinking that the UA forces wouldn't put up much of a fight and those units that did resist would quickly be overwhelmed. After the UA forces collapse, Zelensky would have no choice but to flee the country or be captured.
This is why the Kiev attack happened otherwise it wouldn't ever have happened.
Do yourself a favor a listen to at least ONE source of news that isn't funded by Nato's propaganda money. It'll keep you from being so naive about current events.
I look at numerous sources from both sides because unlike the pro-Russian hacks of the Duran and others like them, I care more about facts and knowing what's actually happening in the ground in real life than I care about blindly supporting one side and completely discounting all information that doesn't say my side is winning.
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@ub210
I understand your point. From the Russian side, also understand that Ukrainian was doing everything it could to wipe out the opposition over the last 8 years, especially in the Donbas.
You do understand that it was the Russians who supplied weapons to the Donbas militia and then they sent troops to help them too. This is despite the fact that very few people living in the Donbas who wanted more autonomy from Ukraine NEVER VOTED to separate from Ukraine by force. That was Putin trying to provoke a situation so that they would have justification to attack and that's exactly what happened.
*If they continue to progress and more territories vote to seek protection from the Kiev govt under the RF, what then? We're not going to support a 10-year war that has decimated Ukraine, NATO stores, and may
further erode Ukrainian territory, are we?*
That's makes no sense. Russians invade an area and Ukrainians flee the region. They then hold elections where everyone who would vote against them have already left and they 'win' the election and claim that that region wants to leave Ukraine? How much of a joke of an election can you hold that no one would ever recognize if they had half a brain?
You're pretty much ethnically cleansing an area so that all opposition against you is gone and then claiming the territory as yours.
Surely, the west sees this? The US military has made it clear that they do not want to get involved. This is clearly overreach by the US State Dept and agencies under it.
If NATO and the US didn't want to get involved, they wouldn't have supported Ukraine for this long and be slowly but surely expanding their support. Sure it would've been great to see NATO step up with tanks and other armored vehicles from the beginning, but the fact that the US and Germany are willing to send Bradleys and Marders now and the UK is willing to send a few Challenger tanks as well is a great start from even a few months ago when such donations were out of the question.
So yes NATO won't put boots on the ground, but they're also not going to let Ukraine fall after being committed to helping them for so long.
When they start respecting each other, we'll get somewhere with nogotiations. If not, with time, respective western govts will be replaced with people who are able to make the tough decisions that will lead to peace.
How can you negotiate with a tyrant like Putin who's already made it clear that he's not willing to budge on much of anything? Giving in to his demands only emboldens him to do it again to Ukraine or other countries in the future. Unless Putin drastically changes his mind, the only way to force him to change his mind is to beat his army to a pulp on the battlefield or else have the Russian people say enough and enough and rise up against him which seems very unlikely.
An uneasy peace is worse than no peace at all as you can see with North and South Korea where even though they're not fighting each other there's a neverending uneasiness between them where violence could break out at anytime. The only long term solution for Ukraine is to join NATO and be under their protection. The Baltic states prove that NATO protection works because without joining, they would've been taken over and fallen back under Russian control long ago.
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@jay64j
Yes, this can be an aspect of Russian war, but you describe it out of context, like a western propaganda rag. There is strategy underlying the action. Western ways, now also forced on Ukraine, are often with far less strategy, bigger bombs, more death to civilians.
I don't know if you've been following the war since the beginning, but I have and I can tell you it isn't 'western propaganda' at all to say that the Russians have been throwing troops and equipment away recklessly since the beginning of the conflict and things still haven't changed now.
From the first days of the war when the Russians were taking significant casualties as well as having many of their men abandoning their vehicles because of poor logistics and often running out of fuel, so many people thought that this was actually part of the plan to send their low grade units to soak up Ukrainian supplies before the real units went in.
Now we see that this is the actual state of the Russian army and while things have improved since the early days of the war, the Russians are still throwing away men and equipment with very little care as long as they achieve their objectives. If you disagree then please tell me what you believe the Russian strategy is these days?
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