Comments by "UzuMaki NaRuto" (@UzumakiNaruto_) on "Alexander Mercouris"
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@subtle0savage
Regarding this current engagement, Ukraine has launched a series of major attacks with no discernable goal in mind (of military consequence). If they had succeeded, or nearly succeeded, in capturing/controlling an objective (as in Germanys advance in to the Ardennes during the 'Battle of the Bulge' to cut Allied ground forces in two and control the port of Antwerp), then this current assault could be labelled as a 'Penetration of the center'. Ukraine's goal seems primarily to gain significant stretches of land held by a weak enemy to boost moral, which has negligible strategic value and in point of fact demonstrates they are weak
The overall Ukrainian goal is of course to take back all or as much land that they've lost in this war. The thing is I believe that they're flexible in going about doing that.
This is just my own speculation, but I think when they announced the offensive on Kherson 1-2 months ago they wanted to see what the Russian reaction would be. The Ukrainians know that the Russians can't be strong everywhere along the front and so perhaps they were looking to see what the Russians would do.
When the Russians saw that the Ukrainians were actually gathering to attack in the Kherson area they moved in reinforcements to help with repelling the attack. The thing is this became a pick your poison situation for the Russians. If they move troops to Kherson to reinforce that area, then those reserves won't be available for other parts of the front. If they don't move troops to Kherson then it will be an easier attack when the UA forces go on the offensive.
The Russians chose to reinforce Kherson, the Ukrainians saw the opportunity to attack in the Kharkiv area when they saw that it wasn't heavily defended. So between good planning and good intelligence supplied by the west, they were able to take advantage of an opportunity that became available and because there were few reserves available, the breakthrough became much larger than if the Russians had any reserves to stop the offensive from moving so deep so fast.
So while this successful attack and retaking of large areas of land is certainly a good morale booster, it also shows that the Ukrainians are capable of outsmarting the Russians as well as being capable of launching larger offensives and exploiting opportunities when they emerge.
You'll ignore the some 80,000 Ukraine casualties to date. You'll look the other way when Russia demonstrates it can strike anywhere, anytime, clear across Ukraine, whenever it chooses.
Can you provide a legitimate source that shows that the UA forces have taken 80,000 casualties? Also ever since the Kiev retreat, the Russians have barely attacked anywhere but the Donbas region because that was all they were capable of. Imagine starting off the war attacking on 3 fronts with armored forces rolling into Ukraine and then after being forced to retreat from Kiev, they lost so much armor that they no longer had the ability to launch any further large scale mobile operations since and its why they were reduced to fighting WWI style and moving forward in a slow crawl in their Donbas offensive.
What took the Russians several months to gain they gave it back in a matter of days. And here's my prediction. The Russians aren't going to be launching any kind of major counterattack anytime soon and if they do eventually go back to the offensive its going to be another slow hard slog forward unless they throw much more men and equipment into the fight.
PS: I give Alexander credit for being such a good spin artist that he could make such a bad situation sound like a minor setback. Putin should definitely give this man a big fat bonus check for defending every Russian mistake so hard and always trying to turn it into a positive.
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@subtle0savage
Frankly my estimate of 80,000 was erring on the side of conservative caution. The number of casualties, given the amount of devastation observed of military formations, anecdotal comments by captured Ukrainian soldiers, the lethality of Russian weapons, is likely in the 120-150,000 range.
I don't doubt that the Ukrainians have taken significant casualties during this war so far, but I doubt the 80,000 number let alone higher until you or anyone else can provide an official legitimate source that can prove this to be true.
On the otherside I don't necessarily trust the super high Russian casualty estimates that have been put out there by some, but I don't doubt that they've definitely taken more casualties than the Ukrainians have.
What we know for certain is that 40,000 soldiers would never, by any military around the world, be construed as enough to seize and hold a well-defended city the size of Kiev. Personally I think Russia was primarily attempting a bluff, a gamble that if it was pulled off, would save an enormous amount of deaths and cost.
When will people give up this excuse and accept that Russia's attack towards Kiev was a failed assault and they paid for it dearly? Look at every single coup/overthrow attempt of a government and tell me when have you EVER needed to conquer the entire city and its population to successfully get rid of a government or leader and take control of the city and gain power?
Look at one of the more recent coups in Myanmar in 2021 where the military there simply arrested all the politicians who were in charge at the time and then installed their own government in its place. Did the military need to send tens of thousands of soldiers out in the city to keep the capital's 900,000+ population under control? Not really and that same military government is still in charge today.
So I don't get this insistence that you need tens of thousands of troops to take over a capital when all you really need to do is capture, kill or make the existing government flee and then take over important government and news media buildings and perhaps some military installations and that's about it.
Personally I think Russia was primarily attempting a bluff, a gamble that if it was pulled off, would save an enormous amount of deaths and cost.
Completely unnecessary. You could've just put those same 40k soldiers at the Belarus border and sat them there the whole time and accomplished the same objective of forcing the Ukrainians to put tens of thousands of troops to face you without losing a single soldier or tank. If the Russians did that, they would now have a large fresh armored reserve to work with instead of a badly beaten and depleted one that needed to be refitted.
Regarding the goal of Ukraine being to take back all of the land it's lost... that is a pipe dream. It has been losing ground consistently since the beginning of the war--and that when it was strongest.
Disagree. While the Ukrainians have lost some good units during the war, they're also gaining new ones who have now had combat experience and are getting better by the day. Also ever increasing amounts of UA soldiers are being trained by NATO advisors which means they'll come out being good troops unlike the untrained, substandard soldiers that Russia are increasingly turning to.
And we didn't even talk about the Ukrainians getting massive equipment upgrades from western countries that they didn't have at the beginning of the invasion. Just the addition of HIMARS/MLRS systems have made a HUGE difference to the war with their ability to hit vital targets far behind Russian lines. If only they had them at the beginning of the war, things would be vastly different by now especially with that 40km column that HIMARS would've turned to dust.
As an addendum, Russia has barely used its actual forces in Ukraine. Most of the fighting has been done by the Wagner group, the Donbass militias and the Chechens under Kadyrov.
That's what Alexander told you and if you want to believe it that's up to you. He just doesn't want this debacle and embarrassment of a performance to be put on the Russian army so just blame it on the militia. If you can show me other sources that prove that Russian troops haven't been doing as much fighting as we know they are, then please post it here. Otherwise its just another 'fact' that Alexander has pulled out of his ass to try and explain away the losses and defeats as not being Russian army losses and defeats.
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@rosszografov614
It isn't Kherson. That's the province name. It's Kherson city they talk about so misleadingly in western media. Furthermore, it isn't even the city proper, just the left bank, which would be of no military help to Zelensky..as his troops will be stuck exposed there in the open, with all bridges destroyed and in a heavily mined area
I guess we'll find out in the coming days just how much the Russians have given back to the Ukrainians in their retreat and what they'll be doing afterwards.
Liman was taken back 5-6 weeks ago..but as it's usual to expect, western media hasn't reported on the Russian gaining back the Northern East.. except a small captions on some western news services, saying: Liman under Russian control.
Please show me a legitimate news source says that Lyman was retaken by the Russians? If you have a link please post it here.
Western media is full of propaganda and misinformation, and the Russian side doesn't comment much, as a traditional rule by the military.. all that, leaves knowledge in a state of confusion.
Are you saying Russian media is 100% accurate and honest in what it reports? 😂🤣😅😂😂🤣
Look even if you don't trust either side's media, you can still do your own research on the internet and also see what's actually happening on the battlefield to get at least a half decent accurate picture.
Like for example many pro-Russian hacks like Alexander still push the lie that the Russians haven't taken high casualties and yet if you look at the actions of the Russian government where they've called for mobilization as well as finding as many troops as they can from everywhere that they can, it certainly doesn't seem like the Russians have taken only light casualties going by the measures they've taken.
This isn't very different than the Russian invasion of Chechnya where they launched a poorly planned and poorly executed assault into that country and took significant casualties and tried to cover it up. Then mostly by being a vastly larger army with much more equipment did the Russians finally win through brute force.
The same is happening now in this war except that Ukrainian being a much larger country with a much bigger population is able to fight back effectively with western help. This time around Putin had bitten off more than he could chew and he's paying for it bigtime now.
It's clearer to us, that with each day Zelensky's troops have run out of steam, weapons and energy. We can't see any advances..it all looks grey, cold and gloomy on the Zelensky's side
Again if what you say is true then we'll soon see it on the battlefield where the Ukrainians will have taken so many casualties that they will be unable to launch further major offensives against the Russians. So far that hasn't proven to be true when people like Alexander kept insisting that the Russians were winning with their small advances in the Donbas. Then when the Ukrainian offensives began he said they were minor gains and that the Russians would hold and probably take back what they lost with counterattacks.
Then when that didn't happen and the Ukrainians kept moving forward, he claimed that they were taking heavy casualties for their advances and said that the Kherson offensive was still a failure. Then when the Ukrainians started making advances in the Kherson front he said they were minor gains at heavy cost and that the Russians would hold. And now we see that was false too and that the Russians chose to retreat now rather have another Kharkiv happen where the Russians ran and retreated in disarray.
So we'll see in the next few weeks and longer as to what will happen and then see if Alexander, you and all the other pro-Russian hacks will be right or will you all be wrong once again like almost every other time.
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