Comments by "Gabor Rajnai" (@gaborrajnai6213) on "EU Made Simple"
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Orban is famously storying that when he asked why is it that Eastern Europeans are constantly put under pressure to maintain the Maastrich crtieria of fiscal resposibility, actual Eurozone members are constantly breaching it, and Merkel told him, that there is already a multi tier Europe in place and there are countries like France, who can do anything what they want, and wont be pnished, and there are others like the Greeks whom are excellent to make an example out of, so the others will fall in line... that was when Orban was treated as a democratic leader a decade ago. So please dont pretend that there are rules in the EU, its the wild west, where everyone do as they please, while the Germans are constantly scheming to make it their private empire. Its not a co a coincidence, that you are after Hungary, but you were never after Poland, because you had the idea to use it as a big block in Eastern Europe at the German side. This all BS about the veto rights is just anothe German powergrab attempt, if we look at the EP, majority is German, the EU is lead by a German, EPP led by a German, if Germans want to push their will through they want no resistance by occupying every single position in the decisionmaking. OK, if they would be good at it, but besides their powerhunger Germans are extremely timid and overtly cautious to make bold decisions, they could be the most hightech country in the world yet they lag behind in tech of the 70s because they didnt even want to take the risk of entering the digital world, when they were so good in making cars, they are generally not good leaders, they dont have a plan or a vision for Europe they just want power for power's sake, so making the worst possible combination of both worlds. Now after German leadership lost WWI, lost WWII, I would ask, do you really want these people to decide for your country, without you having a single word in it? Especially if that decision includes weapons war and Russia in that sentence?
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When will you accept that Europe is not a great power, and not in the position to make such hardline stance on any great powers? This is not the 19th century, we have no colonies, Britain have 5 military ships, we have no resources an aging population and a technological backlog, yet all of you guys speak as if Europe would rule the world... Europe cant negotiate with Russia from the position of strength, because Europe has no strength, we KIAd 600.000 of their people, so they arent particularly fond of us, its even a tough nut to crack for Trump. Did you really think that we just move in tell Putin to stop when he is winning, and he will stand down because of reasons, when they endured the brunt of it for 3 years? Someone has to have the ability to sit down with them face to face, and Orban has it. Another country could have it, if they wouldnt all put up the Ukrainian flags, and supplied the Russian campaign, now we have no other choice than him. Truth is we screwed it up royally, broke a multitude of promises towards Russia, broke 3 agreements with them, talked them down, then tried to break up their country, theres absolutely no reason for them to trust us, and Hungary can guarantee Russia or Ukraine nothing, so from this point its already pretty dire.
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Lol so lets see who are the friends of Orban: Trump and the USA: 50% of the world's military power, Putin and Russia 25% of the world's military power, Xi Jinping and China 25% of the world's military power and Recep Tayip Erdogan 40% of Europe's military power. Meanwhile Ursula and Germany has the might of Estonia behind her.... yeah Im convinced, that Orban screwed up his foreign policy royally and left totally alone, not the Eurocrats.... boy, maybe there are problems with Hungary, but lets not ignore the bigger elephant in the room, the problem with the EU, you guys cant pretend to be relevant and speak with every single one of the worldpowers from the highhorse, with your military capabilities and shrinking industrial output, its time to make serious concessions... meanwhile Ursula derisks and rerisks to and from China Kaya Kallas makes every single step to make every single worldpower angry at her. You should rather kss orban's btt, that he didnt take down every single bridge what your leadership did out of incompetence and hubris, and send him to Moscow Beijing and Washington and try to normalize the relations with those powers instead of playing this childish game. And you say that there is an actual country in Europe which should be blamed to not give up its independent foreign policy to these people? Comeon.... yes you can maintain your liberal democracy at home, but the days of the democracy exports are over, you will either follow a realist foreign policy in the future, or the EU will become a third world alliance, without resources, friends and technological edge, preyed by its neighbours and any great power for economic benefits land and resources, that simple. This illusion of grandeur is infesting every single European country form the Brtis to the french to the Germans to the Poles, but thats just an illusion, the EU is not the United States guys, and it will never be the United States, we cant force our will into the world as the Americans do, we have to cooperate with the world, and make choices which benefits European population, regardless of some moral implications, and be open to anyone instead of forcing this human rights maximalism. We cant continue with these peope Annalena360, Kaya Kallas, Sanna Marin, Stubb, the Baltic crazies at the helm, these people will wreck Europe in a week, if we let them run amok. So be grateful that Orban vetoes their biggest pipedreams...
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Theres a reason why Americans fought a cold war with Russia and not a hot war with Russia, because they couldnt win a hot war with them, so they took the longer path to victory. What the Europeans are doing doesnt make sense, if Russians win in Ukraine anyway then why to fuel this war, if they lose, then it will by definition turn existential to them and they will use their nuclear weapons. And actually I dont think tha a potential nuclear escalation makes Poland, or Romania, or any neighboring nation safer. If it is possible then Europe should negotiate a modus vivendi with Russia, if it is not possible, then we should put an economic blockade on them as the Americans did in the Cold war, but what we are doing in Ukraine doesnt make sense, it just worsens the living conditions in Europe, and make putin's job easier. Yes I get it Ukrainians should get back their lands, but they are doing this for 4 years or so, without any major achievements, this cant go on forever.
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We have a systemic problem in the EU, you can march around and tell how horrible are the people who vote for Le Pen, or Weidel or Georghescu, or Farage or Orban, or Kacinsky, or Wilders or Meloni, or you solve the problem. You see its not just a little colonial problem of yours of lesser nations whom you can get inline with some financial threats, this is infecting even the core territories. If you choose the first path, then they will win exactly because European countries are indeed democracies. Neoliberalism have failed, western dominance is vanishing, even worse we can do nothing about it, because western dominance is controlled from America and we cant make their choices, the EU will either adapt to the new realities or it will disappear. There will be an inflection point where to be in a good relation with the East and China will be more beneficial than maintaining an EU closed market, and that time approaching fast.
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The problem is what do you consider as Europe? This leadership considers Ukraine as Europe, now from that point on we are already in war with Russia. But OK, lets say that Ukraine is Europe, and theres no war there, and it is defended by the EU army. So if Chechnya goes for independence is it considered Europe? One way or another they will pull us into war, because the EU leadership is a bunch of warmongers, they will find their way to pull us into a conflict... lets not pretend that the definition of Europe is existing because its not, there are people who think Europe is the actual members of the EU, there are people who think Europe is a geographic region which we know as Europe, and there are people, who would happily wage war in Asia to spread liberal democracy there, because why should we consider geography at all, by which regards a Kazah freedom fighter is less than an Ukrainian freedom fighter. And if you have a hammer in your hand, everything starts to look like as a nail.
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We Hungarians dont provoke the Russians, because we dont entirely trust such pipedreams. The actual fact is, contrary to your spoonfed propaganda, that Russia tends to honour the agreements it holds, if not tried to be tricked. They promised the Finns, that they wont be part of the Warsaw pact, and they honoured that commitment, they promised the Austrians to let them free, and they honoured that commitment too, and if Ukrainians wouldnt want to be members of NATO, they would have all of their territories. Westerners tend to break their promises based on the powerbalances of the time, thatshow Poland went under Soviet leadership, thatshow the NATO expansion started etcetera the list goes to infinity. I think in an active conflict western Europe would be perfectly OK with an Iron Curtain 2.0, so we dont close down our options towards maintainang a modus vivendi with the Russians. Poland ant the Baltics have no choice, the Baltic states are undefendable by conventional forces, although not strategic, Poland is strategic, thatswhere the Eastern European plain is the narrowest between the Baltics and the Carpathians, whoever holds that region is defended from western armies going east or eastern armies going west. We are a mountainrange away, so we have options.
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Theres an objective reason why the manufacturing base moved out of the west, its because its cheaper there. Money wont solve the problem. A dam dont stop the flowing river, it can only temporarily halt the flood, but sooner than later you have to open the floodgates otherwise the river will break the dam. If America or Europe goes against basic economy and mathematics, they will lose. Adam Smith literally wrote in his classical theory that tarrifs dont work, and thats the easy part, retaining technology is the harder. Chinese had capital punshment for smuggling out silkworms, yet europeans managed to smuggle out silkworms, Brasilians had capital pnishment for smuggling out gumtrees yet the British established their own plantation in Malaysia, technological theft is as natural as taking a breath, you cant maintain your leadership by force. You have to find your place in the world, where you are the cheapest.
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Lol dear, your dear EU leaders are dancing like a swine on ice to keep this EU dictatorship in one. They couped the Austrian election, the Romanian election, the French election and the Dutch election, the Germans totally rigged the polish election and put their governor, whom they personally bred to be their agent to the Polish prime ministry, by the way they stuffed all the EU bureaucracy with either Gemrans or their most loyal sycophants, like Kallas. Your fan favourite Ukraine had 10 political parties banned, an entire religion banned, 5 newstations banned, multiple political refugees in exile, the biggest opposition party dismatled, and poroshenko in house arrest most of these things happened before 2022, Ukraine is Putin's Russia on steroids. Rule of law, there is no rule of law inside the EU, its a disgusting shame of what this thing devolved into, Macron and Merz is up to removing the veto powers of the EU council, from that point on what the German and the french order will be law of every single country inside... its not the EU anymore, its the fourth reich. On foreign policy the EU is in bad relation with Russia, the EU is in bad relation with China, and recently the EU is in bad relation with the United States, those 3 countries represent 99% of the world's military might. Get your sht together, because what the EU does now will guarantee its downfall either by internal revolt or by a major war.
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So lets put it thisway if you say, that the European Union cant defend all of its territory from Russia, thats true. But since you adressed the Germans Europe is entirely capable to defend Germany, because by the time Russians would get there they would have to go through Poland the Batlics and Finland. From a strategical standpoint the Baltics shouldnt even be involved in this, that territory is undefendable, the only thing what the EU realistically can do for those countries is to evacuate their population while their meager military buys enough time to pull it off. Since we are talking about a war scenario, then this is objectively the logical thing to do, which will be done by any sane military commander. They didnt make good diplomatic choices in the past, they shouldnt have pushed Lukashenko on the Russians, which made them totally surrounded, which in turn comes back and haunts them.
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What if von der Leyen would work towards the will of the people before the whole EU falls apart? In 2006 EU was the biggest economy in the world, then Merkel von der Leyen and Weber took the helm of the EU, and they successfully pushed the entire union into the 3rd place, which is actively trying to fight a war with the biggest nuclear power in the whole goddmn world, actively making every single non European big economy hostile towards Europe from India through China up to the United States. I think we had enough with the German leadership, they failed on every single level, maybe they should focus on protecting their own pipelines from the Ukrainian seven samurais who blew them up according to folktales, and leave the matters of Europe to more capable hands. This whats happening all across Europe is the self correcting tendency of any given democracy, that people know that these leaders are useless and want them out, yet they fight back, instead of changing course.
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