Comments by "Gabor Rajnai" (@gaborrajnai6213) on "Good Times Bad Times"
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I looked up the data. So if my research doesnt cheat me, you poles have: 0 spy satellites on orbit, 0 GPS capable staellites on orbit, 0 military grade telecommunication satellites on orbit. Yet you boost about the "intelligence" you gather. You couldnt even use the equipment you have for a minute without American or European satellite systems backing them up. Literally you cant use your HIMARS, your F35's nothing without them. At least the French have some Telstar birdies, and the EU has Galileo up, I dont say its enough, but thats at least something. Depending on americans doesnt mean, what you think it means. Depending on Americans mean, that you need not just their satellite system, their worldwide intelligence gathering system, my bad news is, that you need their airlifting capability as well, because none of your theoretical alliance have enough cargo planes to make a rapid response in case one of them attacked.
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Lol its not that easy to breach NPT as some would expect. First of all, not a single state would ship uranium anymore, the moment IAEA inspectors arent let to check every suspicious site, so Poland would need an own domestic uranium mine. Then they would need the enrichment facilities just to run the reactors. From that point on the situation is quite easy, but the results are basically useless, if a first strike can render the capability moot, so there would be a need for submarines, and excessive miniaturisation in order that the endproduct is not that big that a rocket cant handle it. Oh yeah,a rocket program needed as well plus more enrichment facilities to make a reactor small enough to fit into the subs, precision engineering, sot that it will be silent enough so the russians dont find it. I would say 20 years if noone helps, while something with any actual combat value can be aquired.
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It sounds to me, that you spend 50 billion at the Koreans, and they give back a 5 billion investment in return. Now thats what I call good business. You can call the Germans and French as you like, but they atleast didnt want to rip you off like that. How many EU grants did South Kore gave to Poland, to make that economic boom? How many poles are working in South Korea? Yeah the Germans open up an Intel chip manufacturing plant, where potentially a lots of Europeans will work, meanwhile if South Korea builds a chip manufacturing plant no pole will work in it. Because in reality its not the Germans who are your enemies and peer competitor country, they are part of the common market, and shared economy, but South Korea. You in Poland do EXACTLY, what you accuse other European nations are doing, making friends outside the block in the expense of the european interests, because you know better. But if you dont trust the EU, fine by me, then you should have your referendum, and quit the European market, as the Brits did.Oh BTW dreaming about the Polish Lithuanian commonwealth is no less imperialistic, than dreaming about tzarist Russia, and an intervention in Belarus should be a NATO decision, not a Polish-Ukrainian land grabbing campaign, because those lands were part of the empire 1000 years ago, and now you have the opportunity to take them back under the guise of denazifying a foreign country.
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You think too much about democracies. Well I can tell you what happened in WWII. Sure France and Britain declared war on Germany, then... they did nothing. They didnt send a rusted wheel into Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands Belgium or Norway, they dwelled in France, and as soon as it wasnt that victory parade as they expected, the Brits swam across the channel, and left even the French alone. The sole reason why the british tried to fight with them is because they didnt want the French fleet end up in German hands, because that could challenge the Royal Navy. America had no intention to join the war whatsoever, if the Japs didnt attack them in Pearl Harbor, they would reamin completely out of it. The lesson is as long as it does not threaten your own country, its not that important. Expecting these big European holy crusades against Russia is delusional, they didnt even work thatway, when they actually did crusades. Ok Richard the Lionheart was ordered to the Holy lands by the pope, but all what he did there was scheming with Salladdin, so he can get back to England as soon as possible.
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As far as I know all european nations are aryan, which means maybe except the Gaels, all of them came from Asia. Thats one thing, the other is that herodotus talks about Scythinas dwelling in the Pannonian plain, and guess who the scythians are alike, with their horse archery, and nomadic culture? Well, they were not slav invaders, thats for sure. The only provable Scythian nation the Jasz people are living in present day Hungary, before the Romanians invaded and comitted a genocide, they lived in Romania as well, thatshwere the name of the eastern Romanian regional hub Iasi comes from.
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So, if we forget the green BS and tax everything which comes from America, we will back on track. The mistake what Germany made is not to build a self reliant European market instead of trying to sell sht to the yanks and the chinese. We cant trust those guys, they only look for their own interests. Look at the yanks, they print some money when they feel out of it, produce the sht for themselves, maintain a debt which Germans couldnt repay under 100.000 years, and still confident, because their propaganda makes them immune from the obvious. If anyone would take American debtrate to the real standards, they would realize they went broke 20 years ago, and will never repay that money.
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Anyone who knows anything about the Suwalki gap, knows full well, that its a 100 km wide opening between Russian Kaliningrad and Belarus, where three Russian tank armies, and half of the Russian air defenses just wait, to cut it through, then the Baltic states are done, every single military unit there is trapped and a thousand throng air army cant break the missile defenses. Now the question arise, what did Poland and the Baltic stes do to fortify the gap? The answer is nothing. You have 3 years according to your own assessment, to dig the trenches put the minefields, because if it is still there on its current state, then the Americans will be somewhat right on why should they send their troop into a clear military disaster.
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Yeah, when will you hold a referendum in Szekelyland about the reunification with Hungary? Oh you dont intend to, and just showing the Paris peace accords. Well, according to the Paris peace accords Bessarabia, or Moldova if you like is a separate state, so no referendum has the legal power to changing the status quo, that you made a precedent when the people of Crimea have spoken, and you declared it a sham, and put the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine above else. As there is a saying in Hungary, that with one ass you cant ride two horses simultaneously, the moment you try to annex Moldova one way or another Transylvania will again be on the table. @Kalimdor199Menegroth
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@Notpolitical_J Can Ukrainians survive without US weapons? If not then a ceasefire certainly benefitting them.... yes the future is unpredictable, thatswhy cordial relations are a key to survive. This whole Ukrainian Baltics and Polish position, that they will use the USA as their battering ram against Russia is unsustainable, because it is not in the interest of the United States. The United States wants a strong Russia on its side tho isolate China, thats the realpolitik, noone cares about century old feuds in Eastern Europe. If Zelensky would be a clever guy, he would have made peace with Biden, and he would have got the security guarantees what he wanted, but he chose to try his luck, and he rolled the dice. This war will end one way or another, and Ukrainians should better prepare to be friends with Russia, because noone want to pay the exorbitant sums to keep this war rolling.
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You Poles never fail to amaze me, that after being too weak and timid to offer peacekeepers to Ukraine, you start to brag about an even bigger military committment... we all know you are bluffing you showed your cards already. I will tell you what will happen if Russia crosses the borders anywhere. All Polish forces will abandon any position abroad and retreat to defend Poland, while crying a river to the Germans, to deal with the liberation of Finland or the Baltics... somewhere along the line you have to leave behind this childish slavic nature of yours, and start acting as adults. Even if you dont like Germans you are nothing without them, and you wont revive the PLC because you lack the economic and military power to do that. So instead of this slavic fratboy club you shoukld go for the European Military project, even if that means hurting American interests, because nothing else guarantees your security and the security of these countries you mentioned. There are three important powers in Eastern Europe, the Germans, the Russians and the Turks. Nobody else! You have to make an alliance with one of them in order to survive.
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Lol I didnt think that the EU owes something to Ukraine, that we cant hide behind American protection, instead of sending 100s of billions for free. And they could be EU members and militarily neutral buffer country, as Finland were before they joined NATO, because the European Union has nothing to do with NATO on principle. I happen to dont like this attitude from the Ukes. They owe to us, not we owe to them. Also Zelensky is hyperfocused on cajoling the Americans, while criticizing Europe, OK Zel, then I guess its their task to save your as from now on. We can find a better place for that 200 billion we spent on you. Who did give you territorial guarantees Clinton or Chirac? Who did offered you NATO membership Merkel or George Bush? Who did tell you to commence this war in Istambul Scholtz or Boris Johnson? So Brits and Americans screw it up why should the EU pay for it? They sent you 30 Abrams and 10 Challenger and they think they call the shots? Ukraine couldnt even move without the 500 leopards and the F16s what was delivered by Europe, Your refugees are siutting in our necks siphoning our welfare system, so I want you to lick our as, and tell, that it taste like roses! Even better ask back everything and leave Ukraine to those who made them false promises!
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So if you Poles and Baltics wouldnt be childish slavs, the realistic move would be to detach Lukashenka from Putin, because more than half of your problems would instantly go away if Belarus wouldnt be an adversarial country used as a forward operating base by Russia. Yeah he is a dictator, which means he loves money, and options to keep his power even if he falls out of Kremlin's grace. Give him money, and investments, and guarantees that you wont overthrow him, and push him out of Russia's orbit is the realistic move which you should seek, nd forget liberal whining. If Belarussians dont like him they will overthrow him, thats none of your business. This is Great power politics, morals dont play here. I know that you are not too clever people and made your job hard, but if you start now, then maybe a decde you can achieve some success.
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The only foreign policy point which cant be explained by the Russians or the Chinese are simply cheaper is the Swedish accession, and there are a ton of counterargument against that. First of all Turkey is an official military ally in NATO, Sweden is not, so it is a basic to listen to what they want. Secondly there wasnt a referendum in Sweden for succession so the whole commitment is questionable. Thirdly the finish and swedish succession equates the EU and NATO, which should not be the case, in a modus vivendi with Russia, where states like Ukraine or Georgia acn become EU members without being NATO members. We wont lie to anyone, we will never go to war for those nations, which would be a requirement under NATO, I personally even consider giving the Baltics NATO membership as a mistake, their land is undefendable, and only overtretch the capabilities of NATO. If the baltics or Poland want to go to war with Russia over Ukraine or Georgia, theres no legal barrier to give them unilateral security guarantees. We were once under Stalingrad with the united European army, that was enough for 1000 years.
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No dear we entered NATO a decade before the Baltics did, when we entered there was a NATO partnership with Russia, not a single word about a continental war looming around, and there are no regulations of letting in anyone, who we dont like, or simply dont want to die for, and not to promise such things is the actual right thing to do. And no Hungary 100% obliging NATO regulations, thtaswhere you are mistaken, you are the ones, who try to breach the rules, by trying to pressure us into things, we never ever applied for. NATO regulations are clear as sky, an unanimous vote is required for a new member to be taken in, and no country with an ongoing war, or territorial dispute allowed in ever. Not a single hungarian droplet of blood will fall for the recapture of Crimea. Deal with it. @Kalimdor199Menegroth
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