Comments by "\/" (@joebazooks) on "TED-Ed"
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Adam Thornton
if you are deliberately stuck somewhere--say, on an island--with 99 other people, all of whom have green eyes, you know that at the very least 99/100 have green eyes.
now, since we can't be sure of our own eye color, let's simply exclude ourself from the equation; if we exclude ourself from the equation for a moment, we know that 99 other people--all of whom have green eyes--know for certain that at the very least 98/99 people have green eyes since they can't see their own eyes.
98/99 is what each of them perceive.
99/99 is the reality for each of them.
bearing that in mind, if i know for certain that at the very least 99/100 have green eyes since i can't see my own eyes, what are the chances i myself have green eyes?
99/100 is what i perceive.
100/100 is most certainly the reality.
i think the chance of you not having green eyes is 0.0001% or something similar, but i could be wrong
but it should never be that complex of a process to begin with anyway. if you are deliberately stuck somewhere with 99 other people, all of whom have green eyes, the chances you also have green eyes is through the roof
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