Comments by "R136a1" (@HR_8035_YEA) on "Professor Gerdes Explains 🇺🇦 " channel.

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  72. Maybe many of the assumptions we hold about Russia are just plain wrong. We thought the Russian military was modern, competent and powerful. We thought Russia was run with a similar level of efficiency and competence as most Western countries. We thought the FSB and other key state instruments were well run. It could have just appeared that way because there was in fact very little dissent inside Russia. We thought of Russia as being a nation state rather than a more fluid, mafia-like organisation. We underestimated the extent to which Russia appears to have been hollowed out by the corruption of Putin, the oligarchs and anyone else who could steal a piece of the pie. Perhaps Putin's leadership and strategic thinking skills have been vastly overestimated. People keep claiming to see some mythical 4d chess rather than failure and plain incompetence. None of this make sense because we have yet to clear away all our false assumptions about Russia. Maybe it would help to stop overestimating Russia and over analysing events. Start taking events at face value more often. If we do that it's obvious that Russia is far weaker than anyone could have imagined before the war. It's also obvious that Putin is very weak. Why else would there be any negotiation with Prigozin? If Russia was even close to being the power that they claim, there would have been no need for negotiations. Prigozin and Wagner would have been crushed like a bug. That would have acted as an effective deterrent to any potential usurpers in future.
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  167. Yes, Russia is in it for the long haul. It's obvious they can't get their way with Ukraine and be on good terms with the West. So the result is that we are going back to a cold war. Russia is going to use the old Soviet playbook. History tells us how that worked out. But let's be real here, present day Russia is far weaker than the former Soviet Union. The USSR had somewhere between 20-30% of global GDP, while Russia has about 1.5% now. It's energy exports are down nearly 50% according to it's central bank. That's just one example. Also, Russia is far weaker militarily as so many of the former Warsaw Pact countries are now NATO members. NATO has never been stronger or more United, especially with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Ukraine is also a handful on their own as the Russians are finding out. Russia have already lost around half their pre war military power in the debacle in Ukraine. This can only end one way: defeat and eventually the break up of the Russian Federation. We can expect a lot more proxy wars in nations that Russia tries to place military assets. The West will not just sit around and let Russia take control of Africa or Latin America or any other place of any value. I think you, and the Russians themselves, have overestimated how much support Russia has in Africa. Just google all the votes in the UN regarding the Russian invasion. It's clear that far more African nations lean towards the West. The ones likely to side with Russia are mostly dirt poor and looking for handouts. Unfortunately for them Russia is not in an economic position to give any meaningful help. 50,000 tonnes of free grain is worth about US$20 million. That's practically an insult. Russia can dream big just like they did in believing they would swiftly seize control of Ukraine. But in the real world they just don't have the power or the money to realize those dreams. Unfortunately, Ukrainians are suffering as a result of these Russian delusions of grandeur.
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