Comments by "LancesArmorStriking" (@LancesArmorStriking) on "Dwarkesh Patel" channel.

 @inraid Consistent opinions are a bad thing? Lol
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@fezzoggg5 Not really, real wages are rising and domestic (alongside military of course) production is ramping up. In fact the biggest problem the Russians are facing is a labor shortage and economic overheating, not stagnation. That's not to say the war is justified, but the picture on the ground isn't a collapse or revolts against Putin. On the contrary, sanctions have cemented his power over the Russian oligarchs and forced them to start investing into Russia proper.
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Thank you. Paine here seems to have a massive blind spot regarding the end of the USSR and the chaos that followed— pretending like "everyone wanted Russia to be like Europe and just do business". The former Soviet Republics were all preyed upon by US-government-employed economic advisors, whose advice led to state firms being sold for pennies, hyperinflation, and a complete collapse of investment (even compared to Soviet standards). The US communicated very clearly to Russia what it does to countries that it deems too weak to be worthy of respect. Russia simply took that lesson and ran with it. Hence Georgia and Ukraine. Become strong in a conventional sense first, then work on business. You can't foster investments if foreign powers are constantly pushing your leaders to make poor decisions, on account of there being no military consequences (deterrent) for meddling in their domestic affairs. In fact the whole "maritime vs continental" idea is short-sighted: she is correct about which types of countries are on either side of that framework, but she doesn't realize the dynamic that fuels it. Those that have geographic security, and those who don't. All of the maritime powers are states which have geographically stable and protective borders. Australia, New Zealand, Britain— islands. Canada and US: virtually islands, surrounded by sparse lands or oceans. Western Europe: protected by distance and the Northern Plains. Europe was itself continental until coming under the US umbrella. All of these areas are insulated, instilling a natural sense of security. China and Russia are large and much less protected. China was for much of its history until its Pacific coast became a vector for states to use.
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The only feasible example I can think of is China, because a small minority of people want Vladivostok back. But Japan's demographic crisis is among the worst on Earth, so they're in no position to fight. Neither is Finland, whose entire population is less than Saint-Petersburg. Maybe Kazakhstan in the far future, but 1/4 of that country is Russian, so you'll need to come up with better examples or admit to yourself that your idea is wrong.
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@patrickquinlan3056 NATO should have been disbanded in 1991. If you don't want to antagonize a country, maybe attempting to place weapons systems and hold wargames closer and closer to their borders isn't the best strategy.
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@patrickquinlan3056 Fine, let's just hope no mushroom clouds in the forecast, no?
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@patrickquinlan3056 You're also not as observant as you think you are. Putin is, in Russia's Overton Window, a moderate. He is facing pressure from nationalist parties because of his hesitancy to brandish nuclear weapons against the West. He's said on record that he prefers not to use them at all. Contrastingly, Prigozhin, the 'freedom fighter', criticized him personally for not using nukes in Ukraine to end the conflict.
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@patrickquinlan3056 Well you already assumed I was Russian, I just rolled with it :) Also why are you so personally invested in containing a country? You will never personally benefit from that. In fact your life may be sacrificed on a battlefield. Why not just make peace and stop attempting to discipline an entire country, pretending like the West is a father figure with any moral authority? Follow in Charles De Gaulle's footsteps: incorporate Russia into Europe, and let the European bloc be separate from that of the US. With Russia's resources and Germany's tech, the entire continent could prosper and be rid of its geographical tensions forever.
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@jmdavison62 Your unearned confidence on this topic is precisely what's needed— the less threatened the West feels, the more likely they are to rest on their laurels and let Russia win. Your prediction isn't new— there's been a labor shortage for years now, and the economy's overheating (yes, caused by military casualties) has been happening for over a year. I guess if you want to believe that something will cross an imaginary line and suddenly make Russians revolt, go ahead. I'll just say this: even Navalny and Yeltsin didn't like OTAN (reversed to avoid ban). It's a pillar of Russian political thought, and extends to virtually every citizen— the West as a political bloc cannot be trusted, and Ukraine winning (and later joining) would spell disaster for Russia. Not because of "seeing how other Slavs can live in freedom and prosperity— like London doesn't already exist?) but because it would become a base for covert operations. Send a few militants in, fund protestors, smuggle them over the border... standard stuff, that the US is on record as doing. A buffer zone is needed to prevent this knowingly malicious action. All Russians understand this. So even if the economy does collapse— it won't change anyone's opinion. Or the political or military situation.
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The Russians would 'feel' much better knowing other aren't attempting to contain them and, as RAND Institute documents have shown, balkanize Russia into smaller states. Russia's current paranoia is founded upon the experiences of the 1990s. Yeltsin, guided by US economic advisors, completely ruined the country. And they appeared to keep thinking of Russia as an enemy even after the USSR fell. Poland actually got off easy during that time, because the US was invested in pulling you away from Russian influence. The Balcerowicz Plan was properly funded, and state institutions and firms weren't privatized overnight. When it came time to tell Russia how to transition, everyone told them to do the most extreme, damaging approach. So any US influence at all came to be associated with that traumatic experience. "Who's to say they won't try and do the same thing again?"
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@daliborbenes5025 I don't think any country takes kindly to being humiliated. Case in point: Congress is seething about TikTok because it's a manifestation of China's success over America's economic darling: all the Silicon Valley companies which were displays of its advanced economy. America lost in the free market, so they want to push China out. They'll certainly try to.
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