Comments by "Rune of Svalbard" (@vladimirofsvalbard9477) on "ClearValue Tax" channel.

  1. It's a farm bud; you must be new here lol Welcome to the Matrix!
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  2. Well, tbh the demographics of (SS, Medicare, and Pensions) led us here. SS was doomed from the start because it heavily relies on consistent population growth and age demographics.
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  3. I'm 31 years old living in central Ohio. My wife and I bought our home (1650 sqft) for $200k in 2020. We put our house up for sale recently. We had 19 showings, 40 attendees at the open house, and multiple offers including; cash offers. We're closing in less than 10 days and the final price went beyond 300k. All but ONE offer were 55+ in age and several of them were buying for their older children. Believe me, there isn't going to be a housing crash; inventory is still historically low and foreclosures are at a 20 year low.
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  4. It's social programs that are forcing the deficits; not reckless spending overall.
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  5.  @fernandovalenzuela2198  Not anymore lmfao This labor shortage has most companies ripping their hair out; it's amazing.
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  6. Same, I hate small talk. I'd rather talk about philosophy, pareto distributions, or Social Security before I'll enjoy talking about the weather.
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  7. Corporations aren't screwing you. You'll pay more going anywhere else; so stop pretending that you hate using their services. No local grocer or farmer's market will give you (below corporate) market prices.
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  8. Bad and ignorant analogy; all fortune 500 companies use the bankruptcy laws to get rid of debt.
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  9. Tariffs would be good, IF the countries we are putting tariffs on would have a similar standard of living. Your logic is that businesses will return to the US if it's too costly to remain in India, Mexico, China? You would have to put anywhere from a 50% to 125% tariff before companies even THINK about coming back to the US. Companies have to make a business decision between over-head cost of tariff AND more important; decrease in profit from demand going down (due to increased price). Assuming that 10% or 20% will push companies into coming back to the US is going to end in disappointment. Trump's deportation campaign along with tariffs will make inflation go back up. That's also hoping he doesn't have to bail out another recession like he did in 2020. I would expect rampant inflation between 2027-2029.
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  10. @JasonBuckman Sorry, but the math doesn't add up. Sure, there is bad spending, but most of the debt is due to servicing demographic problems with financing SS, Medicare, and Pensions. All of this is verifiable by budget data. Some 74% of the budget goes to autopilot social programs; largely the ones I listed.
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  11. It's basically a tax that gets passed onto the consumer. Generally they have a high potential to hurt consumers. Now, to be fair, many don't seem to understand that demand generally decreases due to tariffs/taxes and many times the price can maintain equilibrium or even go down MORE because of a nose dive in the demand curve. Consumers tend to make different choices when faced with the prospect of higher costs in general. If raspberries from Mexico go up a dollar; many people begin to buy more bananas from Ecuador. Alcohol and tobacco are an easy example. Tariffs can be problematic, but to pretend that consumer choices don't change is also foolish.
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  12. Not hyper-inflation (yet) lol In 2026/2027 you'll see another wave of 9.1% (YoY) inflation, but it will probably be even higher.
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  13. Pretty much! It always boggled my mind how people believe that Americans will source their livelihoods from domestic manufacturing. I learned many years ago when I got my CDL that you couldn't pay Americans enough to do farm labor or most blue collar jobs. We had 15 students; 12 of them were green-cards.
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  14. @ It's inflation bud; everything goes up. Corporate profit goes up because they devalued the currency and competition got wiped out. Basic Price's/Lotka's Law. Even the Matthew Principle claims so. To those with everything; more will be given. From those with nothing; all will be taken. It's like a game of monopoly.
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  15. Not ONCE in the last 50+ years has a heightened rate cut not resulted in a market crash. High interest drives up liquidity problems. When institutions go to refinance after rate cuts; it induces a wave of demand with rising unemployment. All the while bankruptcies start to pile up and consumers become more delinquent. Get ready for another market-wide bailout like 2020. People are going to feel like they got hit by a train in 2026/2027 when the new inflation becomes realized. If the debt crisis is going to be stopped. It will come at a cost of dissolving Social Security, Medicare, and Pensions. There is no way to increase GDP to a level needed to counter the current trajectory of our debts. America is not in the manufacturing position to afford a world war, thus it will not result in a new golden-age even if we succeed. I would ask that people humor Cantillon's Law on this one. Once a population reaches a certain level of luxury; consumers would rather die than face poverty. The world is running out of cheap labor that Americans are used to. At the same time, they refuse to consume less and become more frugal. Something has to give eventually!
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  16. Well, as much as I love tax cuts; it will make inflation worse. So, unless you plan to just be the lucky guy that does everything first; it's a loss.
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  17.  @diegoharo7943  Administrations are largely irrelevant in the grand scheme. Every President has outspent the last since Bush Jr. If you cite the actual budgets; you'll find that a whopping majority of the spending (about 74% currently) goes towards auto-pilot programs. Post 2020, those programs have been cola adjusted with the massive stimulus since Covid.
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  18. Well, billionaires didn't get rich on a W2 Charlie; that should seem quite obvious. They make their money on capital gains, which is 0-20%; not paying income tax. Btw, virtually all your taxes are paid by the top 20% of income tax and capital gains.
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  19.  @Hard_in_the_yard  Thinking something is good because there are lobbyists appearing to resent it in the media is not logic; it's a generalization based on a carrot dangling from a stick. You would have to raise tariffs over 50% before companies even think about coming back. This will only worsen inflation for consumers.
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  20. Labor market is great, but somehow nobody can get a job. I'm work with my CDL and my wife is a cardiotheracic surgery PA. She's been trying to change jobs outside of our state for some 11 months; nothing but crickets. Employers just aren't hiring or non of their phones work.
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  21.  @vanpearsall  You're watching way too much mainstream media. You're talking about a minority comparison to how imbedded illegal labor is, especially in the farming industry. The alleged savings in state government budgets will be peanuts in comparison to the labor shortage/increased pricing that will come with a significant crackdown on undocumented labor. Americans refuse to acknowledge that US born citizens will not takes these jobs, but they're about the learn the hard way. You can't even pay Americans $70k to work a CDL job; they're all taken by African green-cards and Indians. Migrants never stole anyone's job; Americans refused to work them in the first place.
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  22. I assume you mean the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs; I fully agree! lol
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  23.  @HighPlainsDrifterJJ  I don't recall saying it was. Avoiding the subject will be at everyone's peril. Boomers would rather kick the can and lose it all; instead of reforming it and losing a little. CBO has already projected for decades that it will hit a deficit; which is now 2034. After that, SS benefits will need to be reduced by basic funding (about 23%). Nobody will be able to filibuster or stop the vote. It's inevitable or SS will default.
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  24. @dione2610 Columbus, OH. I can't tell you exactly because it's going into contract soon; so my initial claim was a bit speculative, but the actual sale will be much better. We put it up between 270k-290k and now there's a bidding war in cash offers going well above 300k.
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  25. @cliffthecoolcat Depends on the market and the size. Don't focus too hard on national averages. Houses between $400-550k or higher are experiencing major slowdowns and many are being left on the market for 30-50 days before sale. This is even in the Midwest. If you have a home $350 or under; it sells rather quickly. Personally, I would vouch for either buying a parcel and find a builder OR sticking to ranches with a quarter/half acre and less than 1800sqft.
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  26. No, it correlates with the 28% rule. Without that rule; you'd be right (and it would make no sense).
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  27. You're about to pay those taxes WITH much higher inflation if those tariffs go thru. Americans are going to find out the hard way that American-born citizens WILL NOT work menial farm jobs.
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  28.  @thebigballer2434  Those factors are largely irrelevant. The center of all this inflation is with (Social Security, Medicare, Pensions, and the Federal Reserve). Regulations and taxation are peanuts in comparison. GDP would have to be insane to produce an economy that could out-compete our debt obligations. It's just not feasible. You could cut 100% of military and discretionary. It would do nothing to stop the debt crisis.
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  29.  @diegoharo7943  On average, the markets perform better under Democrat leadership, but that's not exactly due to economic policy. Republicans are better are producing large bull periods due to trickle-down theory. It works; until it doesn't. Largely because demand runs out of control as supply begins to fall from natural factors in the economy. Democrats have actually pushed in a similar fashion in the last decade since Obama. It's not exactly partisan. Your welfare programs aren't leading the deficit though; it's SS, Medicare, and Pensions. Canada is experiencing the same thing; just worse. It's all in demographics; too many old and not enough young working and producing a large enough tax payment. I'm not sure where you're getting that Dems fund and Republicans defund programs. I think this is a broad generalization for auto-pilot programs, but they have had bi-partisan stability for decades.
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  30. Assuming that everybody is buying useless things perhaps, but this problem is much deeper. The only reason food is still cheap is due to illegal labor and cheap labor in central/south America. Tariffs and deportations (while I agree with both in theory) will actually just make you pay more for everything unfortunately.
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  31. The Government doesn't pay interest to the FED; they pay interest to bond holders. So technically if any part of the government owns bonds (as they often do). They are paying themselves. Most of those are investors.
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  32. I would recommend claiming 0 on your W2. It's always nice to get thousands back instead of nothing or owing.
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  33. I'm not so optimistic; expect a massive inflation surge come 2026/2027. Even earlier if tariffs are put in place.
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  34. There's nothing to be done. A currency implosion is in order. Social Security, Pensions, and virtually all loans will need to be zeroed in order to reset the system. There's no way we or any of our children/grandchildren will pay enough in taxes to balance it.
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  35. Well, they're hoping that productivity/exports will grow large enough that it will swallow the debt crisis; which it most likely won't. This would be a great plan if SS, Medicare, and Pensions weren't on the line.
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  36. Reducing taxes drives up the size of the pie (due to larger GDP). Increasing taxes too much drives down tax revenues because it stifles potential GDP>
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  37. ​@ Direct payments were cut in 2014; not much else. Most of the subsidies are a racket that larger farms use to defraud tax-dollars and send their product to be used as cheap animal feed; including cotton and wheat byproducts. It doesn't help anybody other than a handful of farms get rebated for garbage harvests.
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  38.  @sandrabentley8111  The idea that there's an FDA or EPA worker lurking at the end of every business model (insuring it's safety to the public) is a myth. Hard concept to understand, but government IS the source of air pollution and contamination. DO you think any of these companies would get a mile without subsidies keeping them afloat after lawsuits?
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  39. Not at all! Some 72% of all Government spending is mandatory (autopilot). Unless Social Security and Medicare are reformed; nothing will change. You can cut 100% of the military and discretionary. You won't stop the debt crisis.
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  40.  @diegoharo7943  I wish it were that simple, but markets ebb and flow with bull and bust periods. All your auto-pilot programs have to be COLA adjusted each year and are approx 74% of the entire Federal budget. It's not like Congress is implementing brand new Trillion dollar deficits that surge in new spending areas every 6 months. Almost all of the new spending goes to maintenance of old programs.
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  41.  @Bmizzzle1  Problematic, but it's peanuts in comparison.
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  42.  @johnnyhandsome3424  I wish! Can you name a local store that can compete with better pricing than over-seas?
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  43. Most of the comment regarding tariff problems are rather on point. However, I think most people are missing a glaring hypocrisy. Taxes in general are no different. Why are so many people pretending that tariffs and taxes accomplish different things? Both get passed on to the consumer.
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  44.  @dione2610  Columbus, OH. Believe me, we're ecstatic about the sale. It truly shows that there are two different economies. One for boomer and one for everybody else lol
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  45. @Gullahbae We put it up for $280k and it's selling for $311. Believe me, I expected $290. It actually ended with a cash bidding war.
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  46.  @cliffthecoolcat  Personally, I would look south. There's going to be a large regional correction in condos and single-family in the gulf area the next two years.
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  47. Yep, people need to contend with their trauma AND get more sunlight. Two extremely powerful things with tackling anxiety and depression.
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  48.  @7kardia750  Don't insult people Kardia. When has creating new agencies to monitor, eliminate, or share work load with others EVER resulted in fewer agencies?
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  49. @7kardia750 Did I miss a Trump insult in the comment section? Regardless, I don't find the comparison mutual. Personally, I think it's not intelligent to make mistakes that have already been made and have historical context for. The US is in a debt crisis being fueled by auto-pilot programs and trade deficits. Not only that, but we've just come out of a high inflationary environment, while the FED has already begun to cut rates. Trump's primary goal should be to make sure that (under no circumstances) inflation grow out of control again. Mass deportation and tariffs (while I agree with them to a certain extent on principle) are not exactly strategies at the current moment that would help the situation. There are a number of different ways his cabinet could inadvertently trigger inflation resurgence. I simply find that many of his current policies are pushing in the direction of reckless.
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  50. Same lol
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