Comments by "Rune of Svalbard" (@vladimirofsvalbard9477) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Ohioan here, I knew for a while that both of these laws would pass. I've voted Republican my entire life; the party is in complete chaos and it's going to cost them everything. Democrats has a significant 'edge' on the 2024 election and it's already shown in the August and November elections this year. First of all, changing age demographics and political strategies has driven Republican turnout into the ground. A significant portion of the people that died during Covid were elderly people with comorbidities. That age demographic primarily leans Republican. On top of that, the GOP has been running a culture campaign during an economic crisis and war overseas. Nobody serious person wants to hear FOX talk about transgenderism, library books, or drag queens when the people are scraping by to pay their bills. There's been a significant amount of upheaval during DeWine's Governorship and it has divided the Ohio Republican Party on a multitude of issues; not to mention their voters. Many Republicans are looking for independents and/or new candidates to run; all the while Democrats stand in unison with their goals.
    8
  2. Education will never get fixed with the current parental problem right now. Teachers are glorified babysitters at this point and are dropping out of the industry like flies. Parents don't take part in any school activities or conferences anymore. They only show up to school when their kid gets expelled so they can threaten the school.
    6
  3. Because the US is attempting to cut off China (slowly). And ramping up semi-conductor production and auto-production will aid in this, less we introduce more tariffs or sanctions. Problem is, excessive sanctions or tariffs could escalate a military conflict. Personally, I have no qualms with tariffs against China; the US should have distanced itself years ago.
    5
  4.  @rechasebass  Virtually 90%+ of comments on this platform are fake. Dead internet theory is pretty real. Depends on the community type, but some communities are overwhelmingly bots.
    5
  5. Something people should know! It has not been officially stated, but DeWine has already approved construction for a second outer belt to be built around the Columbus area. It will engulf Pickerington, Canal, Hilliard, as well as Carroll. Intel has been approved for (7) manufacturing locations around Columbus; employment stats are anywhere from 400 to 7000 per location. There's also a very large number of builder contracts for apartment complexes that will be going up. If you live in Ohio, take care to consider your property value in lieu of this information. DeWine wants it done inside 5 years, which I think is hilarious considering it took them 5 years to build a third lane on I-70. However, these projects will sprawl, opportunities will arise, but crime will spread to many of these areas. My wife and I are already looking to leave Ohio for good. The culture here has been eroding due to many political and business factors.
    4
  6. Native Ohioan here! I can say that I successfully grew sugarcane (yes - SUGARCANE) in a garden box from April to September of 2023. It grew to a whopping three feet and roughly 1in thickness on average. It produced about 20 stalks from seedlings. I harvested it, I crushed it, and I boiled it into a grand total 1OZ of molasses! For anybody that is more knowledgeable about this topic than myself; the molasses was very sweet, but a bit sour as well.
    4
  7.  @Solid_Snoop  Aging demographics Social programs are crushing the US under their weight and maintaining asset bubbles in every sector.
    4
  8. Same here; a LOT has changed in 25 years. I remember when Hamilton Rd. and even Whitehall were nice places. Crime has been completely out of control in Columbus and Pickerington is being overrun by it. I grew up in Hilliard and for the first time in history they began to have shootings inside the city limits starting in 2019.
    3
  9. American here; media gaslighting isn't going to change. People will interpret things how they will. I've not once seen Trump actually espouse racism; despite the fact that I don't really care for him regardless. Going forward, it's essential the US strengthen ties with Mexico and Latino America as a whole. If the EU fails and China increases it's grip on South/Central America. The US will be in a horrible position to negotiate.
    3
  10. I here all different things when it comes to this subject. Now, my strength is typically in finance/economics; not geo-politics or currencies. However, Russia does have a massive export economy; largely petroleum. Their largest economic partners are China and India. Does Russia not have the ability to maintain it's own domestic economy based on just a few of these factors?
    3
  11. We're technically still in a bull market; or at least coming right over the hump into a bear market. Cutting interest rates after a prolonged time period has ALWAYS resulted in a recession. Question is, what will break first in the next 3 months?
    3
  12.  @Knightfall21  Disagreeing doesn't make you a leftist. Most people voted for Trump because the Democrats couldn't find a viable candidate. While I like his approach is some ways, most of his banter is paranoia and falsehoods. Trump would literally need to invoke a 75-150% tariff for companies to even THINK about coming back.
    3
  13. I love Peter! Not because he's right; he's typically wrong about virtually everything. However, I like his delivery and many of his points can always taken as potential side interests in the grand scheme of geopolitics.
    3
  14. Don't you mean 'Peter's tree speaking skills?'
    3
  15. Basically, you are going to see much fewer Americans and Europeans, but a LOT more Indians and Middle-easterners taking up the tourism industry.
    3
  16. Deportations are actually more likely to make consumers turn to existing producers outside the US. Rather than make them pay more for farmers that have to raise prices or have supply shortages from lack of workers.
    3
  17. This conviction just won him the election with Independents; mark my words. Anybody not interested in the details will blatantly see this as 'imprisonment of political rivals'. Look at the polls next week and he'll be up +10-15 points.
    3
  18. Similar situation in the US. Median rent is $2550 ($30,000k per year), while the median income is $35,000. This is what happens when central banks live out loans like Halloween candy. The US money jar gets inflated and no new cookies get baked. If printing grows without (real-growth); then prices grow and wages stagnate.
    3
  19. He's juggling his TDS and love of Trump's new policy.
    3
  20. Millennial here; 31. I learned very early on that the only way forward was the stay out of debt. Not because someone taught me to, but because I did the opposite of what everyone told me to. Though tbh, life has never been more lonely in my opinion. I own a home and there is nobody; absolutely nobody that is our own age. Residential areas are filling up with older folks and there aren't any children anymore. The ones that do exist are typically on their phones or iPads. I'm probably not the only one contemplating leaving the country.
    3
  21. Bud, you really need to quit watching Qanon and Alex Jones; they will make you crazy. I have family that have gone absolute bonkers listening to this stuff and it's affected her relations a lot. Every train derailment is apparently the Biden Administration trying to destroy the nation SMH
    2
  22. If NATO prevails in Ukraine; BlackRock will be able to fulfill their rebuilding contract. Which essentially means they will own a very large swathe of Ukrainian industries and real-estate.
    2
  23. Yep! Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan. Republicans will need to win at least three of these; assuming that they don't lose Texas.
    2
  24. Millennial here; 31. Believe me, I know what you mean. The labor shortage is real and it's not just because many young people aren't willing to do menial jobs. It's because there's not enough people to do those jobs. Actually, maybe I'm tooting my own horn, but being a baby Millennial with a wife and kids is insane. The wife and kids part is easy, but the cultural landscape has radically changed since the early 2000s. There's basically nobody at our life stage. If people have children; they're pushing 40 and live elsewhere. Having a good income and home is a social curse in and of itself for people like us.
    2
  25. It's the Freedom Caucus (45 MAGA members) 12 of which basically vote NO on everything sponsored between Johnson and the Democrats. Their entire goal is to get Government to shutdown. As noble as some people might think that is; it would have devastating consequences for the economy and overseas conflicts. Basically, everybody hates the Federal Government, but if we shut it down (we must suffer the consequences of a cease in all Federal funding). I don't think people realize how much of the economy is functioning on tax payer dollars; it's insane!
    2
  26. I'm a conservative and I've found that many conservatives tend to be complete hypocrites on this topic. Abortion is apparently a (state's rights) issue. However, states independent conducting their own elections for Federal office seems to be a no-no? State's rights are typically implicated when Republicans know it will be cast in their favor. As soon as the tide turns; they go full Federalism.
    2
  27. Ohioan here; born and raised. The wife and I are planning to leave the state next chance we get in the real-estate markets. Columbus has turned into an absolute shit-hole; 350 unsolved murders in the last 4 years. Crime is beginning to overtake Pickerington and for the first time in history (shootings being reported in Hilliard). Growing up, the worst crime committed was counterfeiting. Now that DeWine has approved construction of an 'additional' outer-belt that will overtake West Jefferson to Carroll; we feel we have no choice. I remember Circleville being considered (in the sticks) when I was a kid. The amount of apartments they've built there over on '23' is amazing. Pretty soon, it will become the new Pickerington of Ohio and property value will plummet there as well.
    2
  28. My favorite word is 'liquidation' lol
    2
  29. My wife and I are 31 (baby Millennials) and we bought our first house at 26. We currently have a two years old son. There is nobody and I mean NOBODY (our own age) at our life stage. Residential areas are full of empty-nest Boomers/Gen X and the few who have little kids are late 30s to early 40s. My friend-groups from my HS graduating class got left behind entirely. Almost all of them still live with their parents or are couch-surfing with buddies. I literally have ONE close friend and he's been with me since middle-school. It just feels like everybody got left behind in my personal experience.
    2
  30. Personally, with countries like Costa Rica, Ecuador, Argentina, and others falling into good relations with the US. I think it's essential that the US continue to build a stronger alliance with Mexico and then try to pry Panama and Brazil from Chinese influence. One way or another, Latin America is going to be the next global power house for manufacturing and trade. Especially as Mexico continues to gain a large foothold on vehicles, computers, and other tech manufacturing. A new trade agreement to replace many of NAFTA's problems could prove essential if the US is going to compete with BRICS nations. I'm not a huge fan of regime change, but imagine if Brazil left BRICS and entered an alliance with the US and USD. Brazil's exports/imports are overwhelmingly going to and coming from China. If that alliance was lost, China would suffer greatly in terms of agriculture, petroleum, and steel.
    2
  31. The Federal Reserve will NEVER allow deflation. They will slash interest rates and perform massive QE! If anything, we are in the early stages of hyperinflation. There is no productivity/GDP that can outpace the inflation that we've experienced. Which means we will experience nasty inflation for at least the next 5-6 years. Whether or not that will collapse the USD is anyone's guess.
    2
  32. Well, what are they waiting for? Holding those properties long term without full capacity is a large cost.
    2
  33.  @donparker1823  I hope you're right :)
    2
  34.  @alg678  Not problem, I appreciate it :)
    2
  35. Well, I'm not sure Kaliningrad has any serious military prowess. Any volume of Russian military would have to travel far and wide to cover Western Europe. This isn't like WW2 when the soviets had 6 million men at arms.
    2
  36. The next alliance will need to be with Latin America. As small as the economies or Argentina, Ecuador, and Costa Rica are. Friendly creations being driven in more recent years will prove crucial going forward. The US MUST strengthen it's alliance with Mexico. Latin America is the next manufacturing power house. It's essential that Mexico be maintained in good standing with the US. My greatest hope is that Brazil will be won back from BRICS. If China suffered the lost of Brazil as an economic partner; it would hurt. Some of China's largest exports come from Brazil; petroleum, agriculture, and iron.
    2
  37. Please, while I agree with you on some points, semi-conductor manufacturing will NEVER produce enough GDP to rise American wages out of the last 40 years of price inflation. I'm from Ohio, all 7 of those Intel contracts are going to be built around Columbus along with a secondary outer-belt. It will produce jobs, but specialized jobs. This isn't the same as rubber molding and machinists, which Ohio used to have a lot of before the 2000s. Those jobs will attract out of state competition and most people won't have a shot. The best way to raise GDP is to go nuts on energy production; creating more jobs and lowering cost of energy.
    2
  38. @MarkCherkowski Well, not so fast. I think you mean (green-cards); not undocumented. The deportation problem will have the largest effect o (temp and farm-payroll jobs). Many states like California actively help undocumented workers to gain access to these areas of work, but CDL is much more heavily restricted. It would be an insane crime for companies like RoadMaster to issue commercial licensure for people with no documentation. Even if they tried, the DMV/BMV is not going to process your CDL without that documentation. Green-card drivers make up more than half the industry currently; much more than 40%. My line of work is actually with my CDL. It's not just in farming. You can't pay Americans enough to do any blue collar job. When I got my CDL in 2019; we had 15 students. 12 of them were green-cards from West Africa and one from Ethiopia. Extremely nice people. However, the instructors told me this has been the norm for years. They were actually glad that they were from around the Congo, because the Somalis and harder to teach. My first job was $70k back in 2019; pays $85,000 now for a day-cab job.
    2
  39. I've been waiting for someone to do a realistic take on this. People are completely out of touch if they think Trump is going to win in some landslide. I would humor the possibility of a Ross Perot situation with Robert F. Kennedy. However, people need to pay attention to the voter turnout and demographics. Democrats took the Ohio 2023 General Election by storm several months ago. Republicans were nowhere to be seen and rural voter turnout was in the garbage. Republicans made a huge mistake by campaigning on (anti-wokism, anti-trans, library books, and Disney). Nobody cares about these issues when they are struggling to pay the bills and worrying about escalating conflicts overseas. Personally, I am worried about wages, bills, and avoiding another war. What exactly have the Republicans offered to reassure voters like myself on these issues? They also continue to crush the Congressional attempts to raise the Child Tax Credit. They have offered to raise it, under the promise that Democrats will support a series of corporate tax deductions; primarily 'research and development'. Which is a major gateway to tax fraud and laundering anything under the sun off the books. Seeing as Trump appointed Jerome Powell and pressured the Federal Reserve to drop the interest rates into negative territory; he OWNS the inflationary mess that we're in, period! PPP loans were also a complete mess and instigated one of the largest frauds in American history as businesses stole their employee wages thru loopholes in the forgiveness program. Now those jobs are constantly being reposted to continue getting forgiveness while laid off/fired employees can't afford to take those jobs anymore.
    2
  40. Your entirely omitting Latin America; the next powerhouse for manufacturing. Most of the nations you listed are dependent on US funding in order to function as able-bodied militaries and economic partners. China is advancing it's interests in China and overwhemingly Latin America.
    2
  41.  @AaronD-q6t  Yeah, that scares me honestly.
    2
  42. I think you're leaving out (student loans). If you don't have student loans or massive medical debt; I find it hard to believe you're broke.
    2
  43. Ah yes GEN X - televangelism, pro-military, and pro-pharmaceutical! Why should they not be overlooked again?
    2
  44. Considering that the FED began with a 100pt rate cut in September. Historically, this would mean that a recession is imminent within the next 6 months. Or at the very least we're going to see the beginning of a bear market. There have been occasions that the FED has had a soft landing after rate cuts; four to be exact if I remember correctly. However, there has never been a soft landing after a period of high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. The reason that lower interest rates typically create a bear market is because the refinancing phase in the banking sector forces money OUT of the stock market and back into real-estate and small/medium cap businesses. Smaller and mid-cap business tend to rise faster with bankruptcies and are in turn bought out by larger companies and individuals with cash. One other thing to consider, deflation (like in 2008; except for the banking industry) is not an option with the current government budget. It would implode the ability for programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Pensions to function. They will inevitably need to force an industry wide bail-out like they did in 2020. This is personally why I expect another larger rise in inflation between 2026/2027.
    2
  45. Canada is not as important as it used to be (as far as geo-politics go) as we enter the 2030s. High cost of living and relatively (banana republic style economy) make it difficult. Of course we get a lot of petroleum from Canada; not much else. If Petroleum goes offline; Canada fails unfortunately. It's like 30% of all their exports. If the US steams ahead in oil production under Trump; it will actually strengthen the US and hurt Canada immensely. The next major partner ship needs to be with Latin America.
    2
  46. Whatever suits your interests I suppose. I'm Ohioan born and raised; Columbus is an absolute shit-hole lol Crime is out of control in Ohio; 350 unsolved murders since 2019 in Columbus alone.
    1
  47. It's Youtube, some 90% of the comments are bots.
    1
  48. Trump needs to pick his allies well. An economic alliance between Latin America needs to be secured for the foreseeable future. Which Trump doesn't seem too keen on, but hopefully his strategies will work; whatever they are. The US has a large economy, but mounting opposition that would rather do business with China.
    1
  49.  @madmaximus2836  When you debate; focus on the issue at hand. Trying to make a random counter-point of (well-what-about-them!) isn't very appropriate.
    1
  50.  @douglasingham3821  It's because they have massive amounts of student debt. That's what most won't admit.
    1