Comments by "VisibilityFoggy" (@VisibilityFoggy) on "What a war with Venezuela could look like" video.

  1. They're setting up an AK factory. It is what it is. If intel indicated they were to set up something on the level of a naval base, bomber/IRBM base or sub base in the western hemisphere, that would likely be the red line. The US would reach out to Russia on backchannel, tell them to pull their people out and the strike would begin. A complete violation of the Monroe doctrine by a world power is not something the US could tolerate, and I actually believe Russia would understand it for the greater good. They are not going to war over Venezuela, but America will go to war over the western hemisphere as a whole. The same was true of Ukraine – the US wasn't going to war over it and Russia knew so.
    55
  2.  @shmeckle666  - This already happened about 60 years ago. It would likely end exactly the same way it did then. Russia goes home and the US moves its nukes out of Turkey, which it wants to do anyway.
    8
  3. This is spot-on. Cutting off Caracas and taking Maracaibo would be the first priorities. Maduro lacks any semblance of influence outside Caracas (he will not even travel outside the city) and if comms were cut between the regime and the colectivos, there's a chance many would fade into the sunset or simply run drugs, which could be dealt with by civil law enforcement at a later time. There are no religious fanatics or ideological crazies to deal with here. Ultimately, Venezuela would love to simply have some level of economic equality along with a side of rum and/or cervesas. Frankly, I'd argue that a surgical strike to decapitate the regime might even work. There's no way the generals are going to answer to the likes of Diosdado Cabello or, even sillier, Delcy Rodriguez.
    3
  4.  Orthodox power  - The scenarios are much different. The US didn't just invade and occupy one of its neighbors, annex territory, and openly threaten several tiny European states that are incapable of defending themselves without the US on their side. The Tu-160s were a joke, FWIW. The US didn't even bother to send up a fighter to intercept and escort them. I'm really speaking of more major military infrastructure. Anyone can land a plane anywhere. We could land a B-1 in Colombia if we wanted to brag about Cold War strategic bombing platforms. That's not what anyone is concerned about.
    2
  5.  @piotrmackowiak9636  - There isn't. If the US ousts Maduro, it will be considered an investment gone bust. China barely cares enough as is.
    1