Comments by "Seven Proxies" (@sevenproxies4255) on "A Tale of Two Conflicts" video.
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It is exceedingly difficult to be sure.
All I've had to go on so far is applying the more basic military realities to the situation.
Like, I can be pretty sure that Russia isn't "winning" right now. I make this assumption due to several factors. First it's always harder to attack and take territory than it is to defend territory unless the numbers and equipment are ludicriously uneven. Attackers usually have to account for heavy casualties initially, until they manage to break through.
Second, the taskforce that Putin put together for this invasion is relatively small considering the mission they are expected to carry out.
We're talking about a couple hundred thousand troops, expected to take a country with a population in excess of 40 million people, and it's not a "small" country by any stretch either.
That said, nobody can argue that Ukraine is winning either, because while they are dug in and defending, the Russians definitely have mobility on their side.
So the Russians can almost strike at will, at any target they like, but they're facing difficulties in capturing and holding territory for extended periods of time. The Ukrainians can hold territories better, but they can't kick the Russian forces out of the country either.
Note, I make these conclusions based on numbers and equipment alone. I won't even bother with news sources, because the propaganda war on both sides is in full swing so no news reports can really be trusted at all.
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@peterfireflylund You make a mistake in assuming that just because a lot of exposure is taking place it equates to having accurate information. But nothing could be further from the truth.
For starters, the Ukrainians and the Russians are basically using the same design of tanks, apc's, helicopters and even jets.
So if you see a wrecked Soviet looking tank and somebody slaps on a text saying "Russian tank destroyed", you have no way of knowing if it's actually Russian or not.
In fact, not even markings are helpful, since it's very easy for someone to just spraypaint a "Z" onto the wrecked hull of the tank and claim it belongs to the Russians, while it might just as well be a wrecked Ukrainian tank.
Unless you are well versed in being able to spot the later upgrades that Russia have installed on their tanks, that the Ukrainians do not have, you won't be able to separate truth from fiction.
And make no mistake, both Russia and Ukraine have a vested interest in spreading a narrative that their respective side is winning, and both employ psyops units as we speak.
So you can't just run around and assume that what you see in social media and news reports as being accurate information.
People believed in all of that "Ghost of Kyiv" and "Last stand at Snake Island" bullcrap too. But it all got debunked in the end. And the footage from the first was from a freaking video game.
That's how fast lies and fiction spread through social media.
So like I said: more exposure =/= accurate information.
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