Comments by "Patrick Cleburne" (@patrickcleburneuczjsxpmp9558) on "[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 222 (3/10): Ukraine routing Russian forces in Kherson u0026 Kharkiv region" video.
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The tide very much seems to be going the direction of Ukraine since Russia was forced to withdraw from most of Kharkiv Oblast, but like you say, how much the two sides are willing to escalate could make a big difference going forward. Russia is clearly beginning another level of escalation by calling up two or three hundred thousand reservists and could potentially escalate in other ways, e.g. it seems it could take greater risks with its air force to use it more aggressively. On the other side, it's hard to see how Ukraine can escalate further. The West could send more and newer weapons to Ukraine, but that would require a much bigger commitment than giving Ukraine older weapons that more or less needed to be replaced anyway plus some limited weapons that the West already had in relative abundance. It seems like giving Ukraine more weapons at this point is going to mean seriously depleting the West's own militaries. The West could commit to rapidly manufacturing replacements, but that would come at a much steeper cost than what the West has done so far, and meanwhile the West's attention span is short. And if we add to the fact that the West is already losing interest in the war (excluding, of course, the military-industrial complex), inflation, recession, and the costs and hardships the European West will face this winter without regular supplies of Russian natural gas, it seems very possible that Western leaders will be forced to take other priorities. So it seems Ukraine may be forced to de-escalate before long, all while Russia escalates, assuming the war doesn't come to an end first.
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