Comments by "DrScopeify" (@drscopeify) on "CNBC Television"
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@ryanwalters6184 The sucks for them is a real misunderstanding of how the world works - the country making goods has the power to dictate terms, when you make stuff the world buys from you, that gives you the power to dictate the terms but the USA dose not export much, we export some LNG, some oil, some technology but that has issues, we export some food but that is in decline, the USA is just not a major exporter of what matters like finished goods, electronics and food export is in competition with new rising players like Brazil - so what is the path here? There is no winning hand. Trump does not hold the cards. The USA our main feature is capital markets, stock markets but that is like running a Casino, we offer people a place to invest but that is incredibly easy to cash out and run away from, the world can sell out of the US market and Dollars so fast you have no idea how fast, in an instant if the world wanted to. So there is no long staying power. The USA just does not have much to offer the world which is why we are seeing the US stock market tank while the world markets rise. So your comment is that of very low understanding of the world. The best path for the US for us here is to end the tariffs as it will not boost the economy and it will not bring back manufacturing - you need to be able to manufacture a better product at a better price than China and India and Africa and we cannot do that and never will.
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The problem with tariffs is that it raises the price on every America for every single item you buy that is imported and yet most of the goods you buy CANNOT be made in the USA due to the high cost of manpower, if you were to see the price of an American made product you simply WOULD NOT BUY IT. Do you own only Snap On tools in your home? When you need to repair your car do you only buy OEM parts from the dealer?? No it would too much. Tariffs will make it so every American can buy less = fall in quality of life.
I am 100% for American made goods and I do think we need Tariffs on what China makes that competes with American made goods but not a TOTAL FLAT OUT Tariff on everything, even for things we do not make here, that will just lower our quality of life. Tariffs need to be strategic and selective not flat out on everything.
Last thing, when we import goods made in other countries we send INFLATION abroad, we reduce our inflation, but if we import less and make more stuff in the USA we will 1000000% deal with higher inflation for longer, much much higher for much much longer, and so we will all suffer from the damage of higher inflation. This is why Ronald Regan opened up the USA to the world market, it lost American industry but finally ended 30 years of inflation trap and sent us in to the best years of the USA 1990s - When you buy some item made in another country you send them our inflation and excess money supply = lower inflation. Now it is true that inflation was too low from 2008 to 2018 that is when we SHOULD have raised tariffs to raise inflation. But now with 2% inflation long-term outlook, it's not that time.
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@tommygravel5653 Trump has no idea how they work - American companies assemble cars in the USA but the parts, the electronics, wiring, engine and transmission parts, batteries, they are NOT made here, they are all imported and we can't just start making them here out of the blue. It takes many many years to develop parts and some cannot be made here as the cost of manpower is too expensive like electric wiring and electronics modules are way too expensive to make here so you end up doing what? Creating a shortage of supply = inflation. Not just new cars but existing used cars will no longer be repairable without the parts so they will explode in price as well and no one wins from higher prices. The economy slows down, people in the trade are kicked out, fewer people get to own and drive cars so their life is disrupted and all for what? Becasue the trade balance is negative? We in the USA print money, and hand it to other countries for resources and goods. Printing green paper is free, endless, but the hard work of people and limited supply of resources pulled out of the ground is priceless. A trade deficit is win-win. We buy stuff from around the world for just giving them paper for it. We win. Why ruin it?
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Not only will you still pay taxes but you will have to pay more than ever before. Why? because let me tell you - under Biden, he made the USA appear to the world as it's leader, he got massive brownie points from the world for doing the right thing, and the outcome? Trillions of Dollar from joe and jane around the world flooded in to the USA, you can see this becuse the stock markets were in deep decline in Asia and Europe while that money flooded in to the American economy which is why in the last 2 years with high interest rates the US econoimy has done well. But now, under Trump, he scared the world away, money is being pull out at the fastest pace on record and that means every second out economy is getting weaker as money from around the world is pulled out. Just be aware of the damage the USA is taking on rigth now, as we speak, how can you see this damage? Look at the stock market and then look at the Euro-Dollar as the Dollar gets weaker that means money is leaving the US economy.
About taxes, as the world pulls money out of the USA, that money was taxed so that money leaving means the US Government regardless of doge has to now replace that with..... More Taxes on us all. Including you. So we will have a weaker economy, weaker dollar and higher taxes, that is what Trump is doing. And if you think he has some amazing master plan, he does not, as this money is not going to come back magically. So its cooked. That's all it is, it is cooked and Trump is damaging our economy for no reason. Harming you in the process, it will take a few month until you feel it, how will you feel it? Higher inflation, slow down in the US economy, loss of taxes = taxes go up for all of us, Government will make cuts so less fire service, less teachers, less stores and shops around where you live. This is damage that is for no reason, keep that in mind.
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The US Dollar is backed by a country of over 300 million people who go to work every day and make stuff in factories or spend money and no matter the world situation those people still go out there and do things, COVID, hurricane it does not matter, people need things, they need food, they need shelter, they need a billion things so no matter what happens there is a real foundation for any currency FIAT or Gold standard or whatever, a nation and it's people are the value of a currency. However, Crypto has what foundation of what? That people trust new money will roll in the door tomorrow? It is like a team based game of faith, oh oh, here, fall back, we'll catch you bro, don't worry, we'll catch you.
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@tomzeitler5648 That's becasue people demand higher wages, since the baby boomers and their parents promised a better life after WW2 so sent their kids to university, and this lead to a lack of Blue collar workers and so factory workers seeing huge BOOM in demand for goods with the rising baby boomer population demanded higher pay = MASSIVE protests, union strikes in 1970s and 1980s leading to outsourcing to Asia. Well first it was Italy and Japan and now China and in the future India and Africa, the thing is Americans always want better, more, less work, more money. It is not that the Dollar is falling, against other currencies it is pretty strong right now, decades high against the YEN and Euro. So what is going on? It is wages. Why is it so expensive for you to fix your car? Its not the parts made in China its the labor, the manhours are a fooookin fortune. How do you fix this? We need more Americans, more immigrations more children, more babies. This country has room for easily 1 billion people like China but we only have like 330 million so yeah we need lots and lots and lots of people then labor will be cheap and prices will fall.
It s a mistake to think inflation is the problem, the USA has had 12 years of low inflation from 2008 to 2020 forcing the FED to buy bonds and provide QE. What we need is more people in this country to reduce the cost of manpower. That's the freaking root of the problem. Americans are getting older not younger = less people working. Old people in their 50s are not going to fix your car for cheap you need young kids in their 20s and 30s but take your car in to a garage what do you see? OLD GUYS. That's the problem.
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@alexsoccer1196 Except that he is right about food prices and immigration, if you want cheap food then let them in. Why are you blocking farmers from access to cheap labor? Maybe you think that the food you buy is magically grown, picket and transported to the store but no, it takes a person with 2 hands to yank out of the ground you food, every freaking item you buy is picked by a human, so you need cheap labor or else you will see food prices explode like never in history. It's not just that non immigrants want holidays off, weekends off, high pay, but they are lazy too, you pay an America to pick fruit the guy will be on his phone 50% of the time and work slowly and lazy. The guys coming over are DESPERARTE for money to send back home to their family, they are willing to risk death to come here so they work hard very hard and for cheap so you can buy food cheaply in return.
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Except that he is right about food prices and immigration, if you want cheap food then let them in. Maybe you think that the food you buy is magically grown, picket and transported to the store but no, it takes a person with 2 hands to yank out of the ground you food, every freaking item you buy is picked by a human, so you need cheap labor or else you will see food prices explode like never in history. It's not just that non immigrants want holidays off, weekends off, high pay, but they are lazy too, you pay an America to pick fruit the guy will be on his phone 50% of the time and work slowly and lazy. The guys coming over are DESPERARTE for money to send back home to their family, they are willing to risk death to come here so they work hard very hard and for cheap so you can buy food cheaply in return.
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@danielhutchinson6604 Tariffs are just an import tax, when I go to customs office to get my container I have to pay import tax on whatever has a tariff against it, after the 2nd it will be everything when until now it was only just a few specific items now I will have to pay 25% on all imports and that means the price for the customer goes up 25%. The trick is that there is existing inventory, big players like Costco walmart all the big stores have like 6-8 months of goods so they can slowly raise prices but small time importers like me, I only import 300 items specialty stuff, I have no inventory at all as it is all custom so I have to raise the price instantly 25%, the American people will have to pay more, look at a store like Harbor Freight tools, they are going to have to raise prices 25% imagine how that will impact the customer? The problem is the company does not get 25% more it is the US Government that gets that money, so the store will sell less stuff and harm the growth of the company, so fewer stores, less hours open, less items for sale, fewer customers, it's a lose=lose the only winner is the US Government that gets to pocket the tax.
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What makes you say the consumer is tapped? Where do you see that? If 2008 downturn never happened we would today have 2x or 3x more credit card debt in the economy. We have actually had a record breaking 15 years of low debt as Americans rushed and paid off loans after 2008, 40% of Americans now own their home with paid-off debt so they are mortgage free - that is 70 years high, we have most home owners with 30 year mortgage locked in with rates under 4% record historical low. So by all metrics Americans who own homes are doing great, record high home values in most of the country, pretty low credit card debt compared to other countries like Canada and where would be today if 2008 never happened. Not saying it is all roses and sunshine but no doubt the USA is in a far better shape than anyone else.
You wan to see something scary? Look at the country of France, they have 140% debt to GDP the same as the USA, pretty high national debt, but France has super high taxes on the population around 47% of the paycheck is taken away in the form of tax in France - here in the USA? If your state does not have income tax like Texas or WA or Tennesee then your tax rate is on average like 15% so we can raise taxes here to 20% 25% and still be way way lower tax on the American people than in France at 46%. American do not even know what that is like to lose 46% of your pay stud just on taxes.
On top of that, France government is 60% of GDP so if the Government in France cuts 10% of the budget that is huge impact on the economy. Here in the USA The Federal Government is only 24% of GDP so if it cuts 10% of it's budget that is like 2% of GDP in France that is like 8% which would badly damage the economy. So we can cut government spending , France can't. So that makes our debt level of 37 trillion sound crazy but it's pretty much easy mode as we can hike taxes, cut spending, and still have way way more money in American worker's pockets at the end of each pay check. In France they are screwed, there is no way around it. And we in the US have higher GDP growth so can grow out of debt, France can't do that. So just be thankful you are not French, although they do have amazing food, cities and free healthcare but they are in deep financial trouble. Americans are just better off than pretty much anywhere else in the world, minus healthcare that is a problem.
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Except that he is right about food prices and immigration, if you want cheap food then let them in. Why are you blocking farmers from access to cheap labor? Maybe you think that the food you buy is magically grown, picket and transported to the store but no, it takes a person with 2 hands to yank out of the ground you food, every freaking item you buy is picked by a human, so you need cheap labor or else you will see food prices explode like never in history. It's not just that non immigrants want holidays off, weekends off, high pay, but they are lazy too, you pay an America to pick fruit the guy will be on his phone 50% of the time and work slowly and lazy. The guys coming over are DESPERARTE for money to send back home to their family, they are willing to risk death to come here so they work hard very hard and for cheap so you can buy food cheaply in return.
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@tabbycat8511 Banking laws and regulations were designed around a low interest rate reality, if you actually know the regulations you will see clearly how they were formed. Customer's did not make much return on their deposits and savings accounts or CDs so the banks pushed hard for other ways to counter-balance their liabilities to assets ratio requirements by pivoting to investment banking, M&As, direct investments all kinds of products and services and transactions, but if rates will remain high for the long term, then the banks will need to re-balance their entire platform going forward. Some banks were caught in a bind as the treasuries they held form excess cash flow during COVID were all put in to the long end bonds, and those collapsed in value as the FED hiked rates and the 10 year notes moved fast and we entered an Inverted Yield Curve, the banks as such, were stuck with paper they would take a loss on if cashed out and those that had to cash out risked going insolvent due to this problem. The Banks overall have since 2022, taken their coupon payments and so are now doing better, the banks however are still holding paper that they can't really sell so either they wait until the 10 year is up and finally roll the paper over to higher return or the yield curve un-inverts, rates fall and the banks are able to cash out early without taking a loss but that would mean rates have to fall dramatically and I really don't see that happening
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Except that he is right about food prices and immigration, if you want cheap food then let them in. Why are you blocking farmers from access to cheap labor? Maybe you think that the food you buy is magically grown, picket and transported to the store but no, it takes a person with 2 hands to yank out of the ground you food, every freaking item you buy is picked by a human, so you need cheap labor or else you will see food prices explode like never in history. It's not just that non immigrants want holidays off, weekends off, high pay, but they are lazy too, you pay an America to pick fruit the guy will be on his phone 50% of the time and work slowly and lazy. The guys coming over are DESPERARTE for money to send back home to their family, they are willing to risk death to come here so they work hard very hard and for cheap so you can buy food cheaply in return.
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His comments regarding near shoring or re/de-globalization, is really where the FED usually falls behind, sure, there is no clear cut massive trade war going on at all fronts.. however, businesses always end up making moves a step ahead and they are, Apple /Foxconn relocating factories, many clothing and shoe makers are already moved or in the process due to rising wages in China and other reasons, the list of companies on the move is really large, tool makers heading to Mexico and so on, as such there will be a price to pay and that will be with higher long term inflation. However, we will reach a point in time when the only option is to smack the US economy on the head over and over and over to fight inflation leading to heavy depreciations on assets and employment troubles, at some point the FED will realize it needs to start moving it's inflation target to accommodate the impacts of near shoring or re/de-globalization .
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Every country in the world has a central bank like the FED so it's not like we are anything special and the job the FED is doing is the same in every country. It's not about good or bad, it's just a job someone has to do. They set the interest rates and can add or remove money from the system to control either too much inflation or too little inflation and their goal is to keep the economy balanced and stable and growing slowly and carefully, but COVID has forced them to take all kinds of actions and now we have to get that out of the system. Paying more for stuff, higher taxes, higher lending rate, it all helps remove cash out of the system so the smart move is to listen to what the FED is saying and that is telling us to stop spending until inflation goes away. The FED is like a firefights putting out a fire, an economic fire, all they want us to do is wait, just hold on until the fire is put out. Once the fire is out, inflation is dead, then we are back to normal again. Inflation has come down from 9% to 5% so we are not far from half the way back to normal but we still have half way to go so its going to take some time....
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NATO only has 4,000 people working for it, VERY SMALL, it is just an organization that helps armies in Europe work together to defend Europe, it is not some massive imaginary occupying force, Russian propaganda is spreading endless lies. Russia on purpose makes it sound like NATO is some army it is NOT an army it is just a coordination organization. It is American solders guarding Poland, and British and German forces guarding other countries, they all work together with the help of NATO to organize it. Here is the problem, IF Ukraine falls, then Russia is on the border of Romania and Hungary now we need to send 100,000 US solders to guard each of the countries, why not just pay and help Ukraine? Much smarter move.
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Lets check out some counter arguments, let me know what you think, if these are true? #1 America is missing millions of homes that did not get built after 2008 in cities all over the USA from Seattle to Atlanta, from LA to Salt Lake, from Tennessee and Florida. #2 Americans used COVID money to pay off loans with 42% of Americans now owning their home with no mortgage that is a multi decade high. I personally think the number is much higher as the data is form 2021 so it may be closer to 50% by now #3 Americans that have mortgages have locked in record historic low rates during COVID, I am locked in at 2.8%, am I going to move house???? HELL NO. #4 Some US cities are running out of land which drives up prices, Seattle, Los Angeles, even Las Vegas, some cities in Texas just look at Satellite maps. #6 Baby boomers are choosing to retire at home and not move to old age homes, baby boomers are very independent thinking and the ones I know would never even think of moving to an old age home so they are not, yet, rushing to sell. I am sure there are other reasons but just some I can think of.
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Tariffs are just an import tax, when I go to customs office to get my container I have to pay import tax on whatever has a tariff against it, after the 2nd it will be everything when until now it was only just a few specific items now I will have to pay 25% on all imports and that means the price for the customer goes up 25%. The trick is that there is existing inventory, big players like Costco walmart all the big stores have like 6-8 months of goods so they can slowly raise prices but small time importers like me, I only import 300 items specialty stuff, I have no inventory at all as it is all custom so I have to raise the price instantly 25%, the American people will have to pay more, look at a store like Harbor Freight tools, they are going to have to raise prices 25% imagine how that will impact the customer? The problem is the company does not get 25% more it is the US Government that gets that money, so the store will sell less stuff and harm the growth of the company, so fewer stores, less hours open, less items for sale, fewer customers, it's a lose=lose the only winner is the US Government that gets to pocket the tax.
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