Comments by "DrScopeify" (@drscopeify) on "Ask Peter Zeihan: Has the US Overcommitted Itself to the Ukraine War?" video.

@PoeJoe-l7o China has always focused on taking over Taiwan peacefully by trying to run their own candidate through the Democratic system to win the vote. However they were handed a massive defeat in 2020 due to the Hong Kong protests and with only 4% of the vote as they ran a bad candidate and China then switched to the military invasion propaganda to try and win back support and since then they actually continued to focus on the same tactic and found better candidates and indeed they now have in the polls for 2024 around 25% of the vote in the current polls so they gained back a lot of support since 2020. Perhaps the military threats worked but most likely it was just finding better candidates that is what worked. China messed up in 2020 and now they are back on the path. However 25% of the vote is not enough to take over Taiwan peacefully but as the elderly Taiwanese from the original generations die away that might change the future outcomes which gives China hope that they can win an election in the future. The question is if China will wait 10-20+ years for it? I don't know but I think China stands to lose everything if the invasion takes place, they will lose global image, trade, exports, economy will get hit hard for what gain? So the odds just don't look good.
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@jayclark5034 Taiwan is not the NYC of China that is Hong Kong. Shenzhen is like the Silicone Valley
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@jayclark5034 Taiwan is very independent from China they have no policy connections, the laws and regulations and standards that are found in Taiwan are totally independent like any 2 countries like China and Korea, they each follow their own regulations and standards. I have been to both countries and the difference is pretty much everywhere it is hard to find a similarity. Also note that Taiwan has preserved the original Chinese ethnic and Buddhist and Tao characteristics that the Communist removed out of China, the large numbers of temples, shrines and culture centers that is missing in China so the culture of the people is very different it is like going back in time to what China used to be like in a time machine. Taiwan should be seen as cultural heritage of what China mainland was like before the communist purified China and removed generations of heritage.
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Also, the problem with invading Taiwan is that PLA Navy will create a blockade around Taiwan but most likely will not fire on any foreign ships or Navies so as the US Navy shows up with large fleet of cargo with food and weapons I highly doubt China will attack them and if the US Navy unloads which I think they will 99.9% chance I think then many other counties will join as well, Europe, much of Asia, it will look like the world VS China in a race to support Taiwan and that is also a very bad image for China, how can China deal with such a terrible situation? They can't, even if they take over Taiwan in the end it's China VS the world, that is a very bad place to be in unless China wants to be isolationist and disconnect from the world but with belt and road initiative I highly doubt that is what China wants, in fact I think it is the total opposite, they want to gain trust and rise as a world leading nation but that effort will collapse totally if they invade Taiwan.
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@TheDaeroner Those are just claims over ownership that does not say anything about regulations and standards and how life is very different and independent on each side . If you do business in Taiwan and China the difference is major it's the same as 2 different countries.
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@jayclark5034 Good point however UK held out against Germany that held practically most of mainland Europe in WW2 under it's control and they also did so facing the Spanish and French Empires so being an island has a lot of strengths. However the UK is much larger than Taiwan and further away from Europe and had an empire of their own to depend on. Taiwan has none of that.
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@TheDaeroner Hong Kong was always part of China it was a temporary leased to the British Empire for 99 years. Macau is similar of course it is part of China. However after so many years of independence people of Hong Kong did not want to lose their western style freedoms granted to them but China chose to use force against them and that changed global view of China to one that does not care about value of human life as other countries do. You can see how China acted during COVID in authoritarian ways. China used to have a very orderly system of power but Xi Jinping took full control over it and now rules as one deciding person over all matters which is a shame, I actually was a big fan of how China was ruled for the last 40 years as it lead to good decisions and ability to deal with many issues at the same time and create a very successful economy for China and great positive impacts on the world but now with Xi Jinping there is only one man who rules everything so it is a real mess, very unfortunate change for China and the world. There is a saying, too much power corrupts the soul that is what has happened to Xi Jinping he became the Dictator of China and now is so blinded by his own power that he is making many errors and mistakes which is bad for China and the world. I want to see a successful China and a growing China and I wanted to live in China but that is no longer possible due to hostile nationalism that Xi Jinping is creating in China and damaging the Economy of China for no reason at all.
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