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DrScopeify
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "DrScopeify" (@drscopeify) on "Inflation: What's Causing It and Why? (COVID and LABOR) || Peter Zeihan" video.
The US Government might seem big and heavy and over spend but actually lower than most western countries so we still have a "small" Government. In France it is 58% of GDP in Germany it is 49% of GDP in UK it is 44% of GDP In Australia it is 38% of GDP and China 33% of GDP and here in the good old USA it is 36%. So we have a Government in percent of GDP between Australia larger and China smaller I think that is still pretty good. Before WW2 in 1930s it was very small like 12% of GDP but then WW2 happened and the British Empire was no more and we became the world leading power and went in to a cold war with the Soviets so we spent money to go to the Moon to look very cool and we did look cool as the Soviets gave up the space race after that.... Anyway here we are today.
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Inflation is always recorded in 2 numbers monthly and 1 year ago, MoM and YoY, there has never been 2 years. YOY is inflation between completed months so right now the latest data is November 2022 and November 2023 that is the current YoY. Also inflation is tracked by BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) which is not run by the Government but instead by Congress so that is actually tun by Republicans as they run Congress.
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What is money supply or M2? It is just the money that is in peoples bank accounts and CDs but it went up during COVID for obvious reasons #1 people were stuck at home so they did not go out spending money = bank accounts went up.... #2 The US Gov did print lots of money first under Trump then Biden and handed it out to people as stimulus and forbearance so more money in bank accounts #3 people sold out of stocks and other things and parked some of that cash in their bank accounts #4 people stopped traveling or going to other countries so more money in bank accounts. #5 people that wanted to spend money like buy a house and holding off due to high cost of homes and high rates but overall Americans are still holding massive quantity of money which is in conflict with the narrative that credit cards are pilling up and Savings are depleted, M2 money supply says otherwise . Powell said to Americans to stop spending and they listened to him and did as he commanded. However the money is still there to cause problems so FED will have to carry a whip for years to come.
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